Gráficos de controle adaptativos para monitoramento de perfis

Processos de produção precisam ser avaliados continuamente para que funcionem de modo mais eficaz e eficiente possível. Um conjunto de ferramentas utilizado para tal finalidade é denominado controle estatístico de processos (CEP). Através de ferramentas do CEP, o monitoramento pode ser realizado periodicamente. A ferramenta mais importante do CEP é o gráfico de controle. Nesta tese, foca-se no monitoramento de uma variável resposta, por meio dos parâmetros ou coeficientes de um modelo de regressão linear simples. Propõe-se gráficos de controle χ2 adaptativos para o monitoramento dos coeficientes do modelo de regressão linear simples. Mais especificamente, são desenvolvidos sete gráficos de controle χ2 adaptativos para o monitoramento de perfis lineares, a saber: gráfico com tamanho de amostra variável; intervalo de amostragem variável; limites de controle e de advertência variáveis; tamanho de amostra e intervalo de amostragem variáveis; tamanho de amostra e limites variáveis; intervalo de amostragem e limites variáveis e por fim, com todos os parâmetros de projeto variáveis. Medidas de desempenho dos gráficos propostos foram obtidas através de propriedades de cadeia de Markov, tanto para a situação zero-state como para a steady-state, verificando-se uma diminuição do tempo médio até um sinal no caso de desvios pequenos a moderados nos coeficientes do modelo de regressão do processo de produção. Os gráficos propostos foram aplicados a um exemplo de um processo de fabricação de semicondutores. Além disso, uma análise de sensibilidade dos mesmos é feita em função de desvios de diferentes magnitudes nos parâmetros do processo, a saber, no intercepto e na inclinação, comparando-se o desempenho entre os gráficos desenvolvidos e também com o gráfico χ2 com parâmetros fixos. Os gráficos propostos nesta tese são adequados para vários tipos de aplicações. Neste trabalho também foi considerado características de qualidade as quais são representadas por um modelo de regressão não-linear. Para o modelo de regressão não-linear considerado, a proposta é utilizar um método que divide o perfil não-linear em partes lineares, mais especificamente, um algoritmo para este fim, proposto na literatura, foi utilizado. Desta forma, foi possível validar a técnica proposta, mostrando que a mesma é robusta no sentido que permite tipos diferentes de perfis não-lineares. Aproxima-se, portanto um perfil não-linear por perfis lineares por partes, o que proporciona o monitoramento de cada perfil linear por gráficos de controle, como os gráficos de controle desenvolvidos nesta tese. Ademais apresenta-se a metodologia de decompor um perfil não-linear em partes lineares de forma detalhada e completa, abrindo espaço para ampla utilização.

Relative pleopod length as an indicator of size at sexual maturity in slipper (Scyllarides squammosus) and spiny Hawaiian (Panulirus marginatus) lobsters

Body size at gonadal maturity is described for females of the slipper lobster (Scyllarides squammosus) (Scyllaridae) and the endemic Hawaiian spiny lobster (Panulirus marginatus) (Palinuridae) based on microscopic examination of histological preparations of ovaries. These data are used to validate several morphological metrics (relative exopodite length, ovigerous condition) of functional sexual maturity. Relative exopodite length (“pleopod length”) produced consistent estimates of size at maturity when evaluated with a newly derived statistical application for estimating size at the morphometric maturation point (MMP) for the population, identified as the midpoint of a sigmoid function spanning the estimated boundaries of overlap between the largest immature and smallest adult animals. Estimates of the MMP were related to matched (same-year) characterizations of sexual maturity based on ovigerous condition — a more conventional measure of functional maturity previously used to characterize maturity for the two lobster species. Both measures of functional maturity were similar for the respective species and were within 5% and 2% of one another for slipper and spiny lobster, respectively. The precision observed for two shipboard collection series of pleopod-length data indicated that the method is reliable and not dependent on specialized expertise. Precision of maturity estimates for S. squammosus with the pleopod-length metric was similar to that for P. marginatus with any of the other measures (including conventional evidence of ovigerous condition) and greatly exceeded the precision of estimates for S. squammosus based on ovigerous condition alone. The two measures of functional maturity averaged within 8% of the estimated size at gonadal maturity for the respective species. Appendage-to-body size proportions, such as the pleopod length metric, hold great promise, particularly for species of slipper lobsters like S. squammosus for which there exist no other reliable conventional morphological measures of sexual maturity. Morphometric proportions also should be included among the factors evaluated when assessing size at sexual maturity in spiny lobster stocks; previously, these proportions have been obtained routinely only for brachyuran crabs within the Crustacea.

Size-composition of Annual Landings in the White Shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, Fishery of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, 1960–2006: Its Trend and Relationships with Other Fishery-dependent Variable

The potential for growth overfishing in the white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, fishery of the northern Gulf of Mexico appears to have been of limited concern to Federal or state shrimp management entities, following the cataclysmic drop in white shrimp abundance in the 1940’s. As expected from surplus production theory, a decrease in size of shrimp in the annual landings accompanies increasing fishing effort, and can eventually reduce the value of the landings. Growth overfishing can exacerbate such decline in value of the annual landings. We characterize trends in size-composition of annual landings and other annual fishery-dependent variables in this fishery to determine relationships between selected pairs of these variables and to determine whether growth overfishing occurred during 1960–2006. Signs of growth overfishing were equivocal. For example, as nominal fishing effort increased, the initially upward, decelerating trend in annual yield approached a local maximum in the 1980’s. However, an accelerating upward trend in yield followed as effort continued to increase. Yield then reached its highest point in the time series in 2006, as nominal fishing effort declined due to exogenous factors outside the control of shrimp fishery managers. The quadratic relationship between annual yield and nominal fishing effort exhibited a local maximum of 5.24(107) pounds (≈ MSY) at a nominal fishing effort level of 1.38(105) days fished. However, annual yield showed a continuous increase with decrease in size of shrimp in the landings. Annual inflation-adjusted ex-vessel value of the landings peaked in 1989, preceded by a peak in annual inflation-adjusted ex-vessel value per pound (i.e. price) in 1983. Changes in size composition of shrimp landings and their economic effects should be included among guidelines for future management of this white shrimp

Blue Crab, Callinectes sapidus, Trap Selectivity Studies: Mesh Size

Catch rates and sizes of blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, were compared in traps with 2.54 cm (1.0 inch), 3.81 cm (1.5 inches), and 5.08 cm (2.0 inches) square mesh, 2.54 by 5.08 cm rectangular mesh, and 3.81 cm hexagonal mesh. Catch of legal blue crabs by number was significantly greater in the traditional hexagonal mesh trap than in all other trap types. Sublegal catch by number was highest (34.1-63.3% of total) in the 2.54 cm and 3.81 cm square mesh and rectangular mesh traps and lowest in the 5.08 cm square mesh trap. The hexagonal mesh trap had significantly lower catch rates of sublegal blue crabs than all other trap types except the 5.08 cm square mesh. Mean size of blue crabs by trap type exhibited an inverse pattern to that shown by catch of sublegal crabs. The most effective trap to maximize legal catch and minimize sublegal catch was the 3.81 cm hexagonal mesh trap followed by the 5.08 cm square mesh trap.

Size-related Hooking Mortality of Incidentally Caught Chinook Salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha

Mortality associated with the incidental catch and release by commercial trollers of two size classes of chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, was assessed. Observed cumulative mortality 4-6 days after hooking was 18.3 percent for sublegal-sizefish « 66 cm FL) and 19.0 percent for legal-sizefish. Size of fish was not significantly related to mortality; however, when the results were combined with data from a previous experiment, there was a significant inverse relationship between fish length and mortality. Hooking mortality estimates calculated from tagging experiments and observed relative mortality of legal-and sublegal-size fish held in net pens, were used to derive a range for total hooking mortality of 22.0-26.4 percent for sublegal-size chinook salmon and 18.5-26.4 percent for legal-size chinook salmon.

The Effects of Fish Trap Mesh Size on Reef Fish Catch off Southeastern Florida

Catch and mesh selectivity of wire-meshed fish traps were tested for eleven different mesh sizes ranging from 13 X 13 mm (0.5 x 0.5") to 76 x 152 mm (3 X 6"). A total of 1,810 fish (757 kg) representing 85 species and 28 families were captured during 330 trap hauls off southeastern Florida from December 1986 to July 1988. Mesh size significantly affected catches. The 1.5" hexagonal mesh caught the most fish by number, weight, and value. Catches tended to decline as meshes got smaller or larger. Individual fish size increased with larger meshes. Laboratory mesh retention experiments showed relationships between mesh shape and size and individual retention for snapper (Lutjanidae), grouper (Serranidae), jack (Carangidae), porgy (Sparidae), and surgeonfish (Acanthuridae). These relationships may be used to predict the effect of mesh sizes on catch rates. Because mesh size and shape greatly influenced catchability, regulating mesh size may provide a useful basis for managing the commercial trap fishery.

Choosing the best model in the presence of zero trade: a fish product analysis

The purpose of the paper is to test the hypothesis that food safety (chemical) standards act as barriers to international seafood imports. We use zero-accounting gravity models to test the hypothesis that food safety (chemical) standards act as barriers to international seafood imports. The chemical standards on which we focus include chloramphenicol required performance limit, oxytetracycline maximum residue limit, fluoro-quinolones maximum residue limit, and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) pesticide residue limit. The study focuses on the three most important seafood markets: the European Union’s 15 members, Japan, and North America.