Empirically testing the dimensions of consumer trust in e-commerce

In the fields of marketing and general management, many are the contributions of literature relating trust and e‐commerce. Trust is perceived as an issue that concerns the consumers’ intention to purchase. As so, in this research, a path model is empirically tested in order to develop solutions for Internet vendors on how to deal with consumers and increase their trust. The path model measures how the dimensions of trust, named as competence, integrity and benevolence positively influence the overall trust of the consumers and at the same time how the sources of trust – consumer characteristics, firm characteristics, website infrastructure and interactions influence those dimensions. The data used to test the model was collected in Portugal, through 365 valid cases. Findings revealed that consumers, which have high level of overall trust, are more likely to intent to purchase online.

Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

Correlation between microdilution, Etest, and disk diffusion methods for antifungal susceptibility testing of fluconazole against Candida sp. blood isolates

INTRODUCTION: Antifungal susceptibility testing assists in finding the appropriate treatment for fungal infections, which are increasingly common. However, such testing is not very widespread. There are several existing methods, and the correlation between such methods was evaluated in this study. METHODS: The susceptibility to fluconazole of 35 strains of Candida sp. isolated from blood cultures was evaluated by the following methods: microdilution, Etest, and disk diffusion. RESULTS: The correlation between the methods was around 90%. CONCLUSIONS: The disk diffusion test exhibited a good correlation and can be used in laboratory routines to detect strains of Candida sp. that are resistant to fluconazole.

Evaluation of antihypertensive drugs in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and in rats submitted to chronic intermittent hypoxia

RESUMO: A hipertensão arterial (HA) é uma patologia altamente prevalente, embora claramente subdiagnosticada, em doentes com síndrome de apneia obstrutiva do sono (SAOS). Estas duas patologias apresentam uma estreita relação e a monitorização ambulatória da pressão arterial (MAPA), por um período de 24 horas, parece ser o método mais preciso para o diagnóstico de hipertensão em doentes com SAOS. No entanto, esta ferramenta de diagnóstico para além de ser dispendiosa e envolver um número acrescido de meios técnicos e humanos, é mais morosa e, por conseguinte, não é utilizada por rotina no contexto do diagnóstico da SAOS. Por outro lado, apesar da aplicação de pressão positiva contínua nas vias aéreas (CPAP – Continous Positive Airway Pressure) ser considerada a terapêutica de eleição para os doentes com SAOS, o seu efeito no abaixamento da pressão arterial (PA) parece ser modesto, exigindo, por conseguinte, a implementação concomitante de terapêutica anti-hipertensora. Acontece que são escassos os dados relativos aos regimes de fármacos anti-hipertensores utilizados em doentes com SAOS e, acresce ainda que, as guidelines terapêuticas para o tratamento farmacológico da HA, neste grupo particular de doentes, permanecem, até ao momento, inexistentes. A utilização de modelos animais de hipóxia crónica intermitente (CIH), que mimetizam a HA observada em doentes com SAOS, revela-se extremamente importante, uma vez que se torna imperativo identificar fármacos que promovam um controle adequado da PA neste grupo de doentes. No entanto, estudos concebidos com o intuito de investigar o efeito anti-hipertensor dos fármacos neste modelo animal revelam-se insuficientes e, por outro lado, os escassos estudos que testaram fármacos anti-hipertensores neste modelo não foram desenhados para responder a questões de natureza farmacológica. Acresce ainda que se torna imprescindível garantir a escolha de um método para administração destes fármacos que seja não invasivo e que minimize o stress do animal. Embora a gavagem seja uma técnica indiscutivelmente eficaz e amplamente utilizada para a administração diária de fármacos a animais de laboratório, ela compreende uma sequência de procedimentos geradores de stress para os animais e, que podem por conseguinte, constituir um viés na interpretação dos resultados obtidos. O objectivo global da presente investigação translacional foi contribuir para a identificação de fármacos anti-hipertensores mais efectivos para o tratamento da HT nos indivíduos com SAOS e investigar mecanismos subjacentes aos efeitos sistémicos associadas à SAOS bem como a sua modulação por fármacos anti-hipertensores. Os objectivos específicos foram: em primeiro lugar,encontrar novos critérios, baseados nas medidas antropométricas, que permitam a identificação de doentes com suspeita de SAOS, que erroneamente se auto-classifiquem como nãohipertensos, e desta forma promover um uso mais criterioso do MAPA; em segundo lugar, investigar a existência de uma hipotética associação entre os esquemas de fármacos antihipertensores e o controle da PA (antes e após a adaptação de CPAP) em doentes com SAOS em terceiro lugar, avaliar a eficácia do carvedilol (CVD), um fármaco bloqueador β-adrenérgico não selectivo com actividade antagonista α1 intrínseca e propriedades anti-oxidantes num modelo animal de hipertensão induzida pela CIH; em quarto lugar, explorar os efeitos da CIH sobre o perfil farmacocinético do CVD; e, em quinto lugar, investigar um método alternativo à gavagem para a administração crónica de fármacos anti-hipertensores a animais de laboratório. Com este intuito, na primeira fase deste projecto, fizemos uso de uma amostra com um número apreciável de doentes com SAOS (n=369), que acorreram, pela primeira vez, à consulta de Patologia do Sono do CHLN e que foram submetidos a um estudo polissonográfico do sono, à MAPA e que preencheram um questionário que contemplava a obtenção de informação relativa ao perfil da medicação anti-hipertensora em curso. Numa segunda fase, utilizámos um modelo experimental de HT no rato induzida por um paradigma de CIH. Do nosso trabalho resultaram os seguintes resultados principais: em primeiro lugar, o índice de massa corporal (IMC) e o perímetro do pescoço (PP) foram identificados como preditores independentes de “auto-classificação errónea” da HA em doentes com suspeita de SAOS; em segundo lugar, não encontramos qualquer associação com significado estatístico entre os vários esquemas de fármacos anti-hipertensores bem como o número de fármacos incluídos nesse esquemas, e o controle da PA (antes e depois da adaptação do CPAP); em terceiro lugar, apesar das doses de 10, 30 e 50 mg/kg de carvedilol terem promovido uma redução significativa da frequência cardíaca, não foi observado qualquer decréscimo na PA no nosso modelo animal; em quarto lugar, as razões S/(R+S) dos enantiómeros do CVD nos animais expostos à CIH e a condições de normóxia revelaram-se diferentes; e, em quinto lugar, a administração oral voluntária mostrou ser um método eficaz para a administração diária controlada de fármacos anti-hipertensores e que é independente da manipulação e contenção do animal. Em conclusão, os resultados obtidos através do estudo clínico revelaram que o controle da PA, antes e após a adaptação do CPAP, em doentes com SAOS é independente, quer do esquema de fármacos anti-hipertensores, quer do número de fármacos incluídos num determinado esquema. Os nossos resultados salientam ainda a falta de validade da chamada self-reported hypertension e sugerem que em todos os doentes com suspeita de SAOS, com HA não diagnosticada e com um IMC e um PP acima de 27 kg/m2 e 39 cm, respectivamente, a confirmação do diagnóstico de HA deverá ser realizada através da MAPA, ao invés de outros métodos que com maior frequência são utilizados com este propósito. Os resultados obtidos no modelo animal de HA induzida pela CIH sugerem que o bloqueio do sistema nervoso simpático, juntamente com os supostos efeitos pleiotrópicos do CVD, não parece ser a estratégia mais adequada para reverter este tipo particular de hipertensão e indicam que as alterações farmacocinéticas induzidas pela CIH no ratio S/(R+S) não justificam a falta de eficácia anti-hipertensora do CVD observada neste modelo animal. Por último, os resultados do presente trabalho suportam ainda a viabilidade da utilização da administração oral voluntária, em alternativa à gavagem, para a administração crónica de uma dose fixa de fármacos anti-hipertensores.---------------------------- ABSTRACT: Hypertension (HT) is a highly prevalent condition, although under diagnosed, in patients with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). These conditions are closely related and 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) seems to be the most accurate measurement for diagnosing hypertension in OSA. However, this diagnostic tool is expensive and time-consuming and, therefore, not routinely used. On the other hand, although continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) is considered the gold standard treatment for symptomatic OSA, its lowering effect on blood pressure (BP) seems to be modest and, therefore, concomitant antihypertensive therapy is still required. Data on antihypertensive drug regimens in patients with OSA are scarce and specific therapeutic guidelines for the pharmacological treatment of hypertension in these patients remain absent. The use of animal models of CIH, which mimic the HT observed in patients with OSA, is extremely important since it is imperative to identify preferred compounds for an adequate BP control in this group of patients. However, studies aimed at investigating the antihypertensive effect of antihypertensive drugs in this animal model are insufficient, and most reports on CIH animal models in which drugs have been tested were not designed to respond to pharmacological issues. Moreover, when testing antihypertensive drugs (AHDs) it becomes crucial to ensure the selection of a non-invasive and stress-free method for drug delivery. Although gavage is effective and a widely performed technique for daily dosing in laboratory rodents, it comprises a sequence of potentially stressful procedures for laboratory animals that may constitute bias for the experimental results. The overall goal of the present translational research was to contribute to identify more effective AHDs for the treatment of hypertension in patients with OSA and investigate underlying mechanisms of systemic effects associated with OSA, as well as its modulation by AHDs. The specific aims were: first, to find new predictors based on anthropometric measures to identify patients that misclassify themselves as non-hypertensive, and thereby promote the selective use of ABPM; second, to investigate a hypothetical association between ongoing antihypertensive regimens and BP control rates in patients with OSA, before and after CPAP adaptation; third, to determine, in a rat model of CIH-induced hypertension, the efficacy of carvedilol (CVD), a nonselective beta-blocker with intrinsic anti-α1-adrenergic activity and antioxidant properties; fourth, to explore the effects of CIH on the pharmacokinetics profile of CVD and fifth, to investigate an alternative method to gavage, for chronic administration of AHDs to laboratory rats. For that, in the first phase of this project, we used a sizeable sample of patients with OSA (n=369), that attended a first visit at Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte, EPE Sleep Unit, and underwent overnight polysomnography, 24-h ABPM and filled a questionnaire that included ongoing antihypertensive medication profile registration. In the second phase, a rat experimental model of HT induced by a paradigm of CIH that simulates OSA was used. The main findings of this work were: first, body mass index (BMI) and neck circumference (NC) were identified as independent predictors of hypertension misclassification in patients suspected of OSA; second, in patients with OSA, BP control is independent of both the antihypertensive regimen and the number of antihypertensive drugs, either before or after CPAP adaptation; third, although the doses of 10, 30 and 50 mg/Kg of CVD promoted a significant reduction in heart rate, no decrease in mean arterial pressure was observed; fourth, the S/(R+S) ratios of CVD enantiomers, between rats exposed to CIH and normoxic conditions, were different and fifth, voluntary ingestion proved to be an effective method for a controlled daily dose administration, with a define timetable, that is independent of handling and restraint procedures. In conclusion, the clinical study showed that BP control in OSA patients is independent of both the antihypertensive regimen and the number of antihypertensive drugs. Additionally, our results highlight the lack of validity of self-reported hypertension and suggest that all patients suspected of OSA with undiagnosed hypertension and with a BMI and NC above 27 Kg/m2 and 39 cm should be screened for hypertension, through ABPM. The results attained in the rat model of HT related to CIH suggest that the blockade of the sympathetic nervous system together with the putative pleiotropic effects of carvedilol is not able to revert hypertension induced by CIH and point out that the pharmacokinetic changes induced by CIH on S/(R+S) ratio are not apparently responsible for the lack of efficacy of carvedilol in reversing this particular type of hypertension. Finally, the results here presented support the use of voluntary oral administration as a viable alternative to gavage for chronic administration of a fixed dose of AHDs.

A rapid and simple method to detect ESBL in Enterobacter cloacae based on MIC of cefepime

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to identify a rapid and simple phenotypic method for extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) detection in Enterobacter cloacae. METHODS: A total of 79 consecutive, non-repeated samples of E. cloacae were evaluated. Four phenotypic methods were applied for ESBL detection, results were compared to multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as the gold standard reference method: 1) ceftazidime and cefotaxime disks with and without clavulanate, both with boronic acid added; 2) disk approximation using cefepime and amoxicillin/clavulanate; 3) ESBL screening by minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) ≥ 16µg/mL and 4) by MIC ≥ 2µg/mL for cefepime. RESULTS: Method 4 showed the best combination of sensitivity (100%) and specificity (94%). CONCLUSIONS: MIC ≥ 2µg/mL for cefepime would be very useful for the phenotypic detection of ESBL in samples of E. cloacae.

Molecular identification and antifungal susceptibility profiles of Candida parapsilosis complex species isolated from culture collection of clinical samples

AbstractINTRODUCTION:Candida parapsilosis is a common yeast species found in cases of onychomycosis and candidemia associated with infected intravascular devices. In this study, we differentiated Candida parapsilosis sensu stricto, Candida orthopsilosis , and Candida metapsilosis from a culture collection containing blood and subungual scraping samples. Furthermore, we assessed the in vitro antifungal susceptibility of these species to fluconazole, itraconazole, voriconazole, posaconazole, amphotericin B, and caspofungin.METHODS:Differentiation of C. parapsilosis complex species was performed by amplification of the secondary alcohol dehydrogenase (SADH) gene and digestion by the restriction enzyme Ban I. All isolates were evaluated for the determination of minimal inhibitory concentrations using Etest, a method for antifungal susceptibility testing.RESULTS:Among the 87 isolates, 78 (89.7%) were identified as C. parapsilosis sensu stricto , five (5.7%) were identified as C. orthopsilosis , and four (4.6%) were identified as C. metapsilosis . Analysis of antifungal susceptibility showed that C. parapsilosis sensu strictoisolates were less susceptible to amphotericin B and itraconazole. One C. parapsilosis sensu stricto isolate was resistant to amphotericin B and itraconazole. Moreover, 10.2% of C. parapsilosis sensu stricto isolates were resistant to caspofungin. Two C. parapsilosis sensu strictoisolates and one C. metapsilosis isolate were susceptible to fluconazole in a dose-dependent manner.CONCLUSIONS:We reported the first molecular identification of C. parapsilosiscomplex species in State of Goiás, Brazil. Additionally, we showed that although the three species exhibited differences in antifungal susceptibility profiles, the primary susceptibility of this species was to caspofungin.

Polymerase chain reaction-based method for the identification of Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis and Leishmania (Viannia) guyanensis in mucosal tissues conserved in paraffin

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION: In the Americas, mucosal leishmaniasis is primarily associated with infection by Leishmania (Viannia) braziliensis. However, Leishmania (Viannia) guyanensis is another important cause of this disease in the Brazilian Amazon. In this study, we aimed at detecting Leishmaniadeoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) within paraffin-embedded fragments of mucosal tissues, and characterizing the infecting parasite species.METHODS: We evaluated samples collected from 114 patients treated at a reference center in the Brazilian Amazon by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analyses.RESULTS: Direct examination of biopsy imprints detected parasites in 10 of the 114 samples, while evaluation of hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides detected amastigotes in an additional 17 samples. Meanwhile, 31/114 samples (27.2%) were positive for Leishmania spp. kinetoplast deoxyribonucleic acid (kDNA) by PCR analysis. Of these, 17 (54.8%) yielded amplification of the mini-exon PCR target, thereby allowing for PCR-RFLP-based identification. Six of the samples were identified as L. (V.) braziliensis, while the remaining 11 were identified as L. (V.) guyanensis.CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study demonstrate the feasibility of applying molecular techniques for the diagnosis of human parasites within paraffin-embedded tissues. Moreover, our findings confirm that L. (V.) guyanensisis a relevant causative agent of mucosal leishmaniasis in the Brazilian Amazon.

Clinical and serological outcomes with different surgical approaches for human hepatic hydatidosis

ABSTRACTINTRODUCTION:Hydatidosis is the result of infection with the larval stages of some species of the genus Echinococcus. Treatment approaches for hydatid cysts include the use of albendazole, surgery, and/or medico-surgical procedures. The choice of the therapeutic surgical approach depends on the cyst number and localization, surgeon expertise, and presence of complications. The present study aimed to compare the outcomes of the following therapeutic approaches for the treatment of hepatic hydatid cysts: pericystectomy; the puncture, aspiration, injection, and reaspiration (PAIR) technique; and the PAIR technique followed by deroofing, evacuation of cysts, and omentoplasty.METHODS:The 54 patients were divided into 3 groups: Group I (14 patients) who underwent pericystectomy, Group II (23 patients) who underwent the PAIR technique, and Group III (17 patients) who underwent the PAIR technique followed by deroofing and omentoplasty. The diagnosis of hydatid cysts was based on serological testing using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, abdominal ultrasound, and parasitological examination of the cyst contents. Morbidity, mortality, length of hospital stay, recurrence, and postoperative complications were evaluated.RESULTS:Postoperative bleeding, infection, and recurrence were reported in Groups I and II; Group III did not experience postoperative infection and had shorter hospital stays. Recurrence and postoperative complications did not occur in Group III.CONCLUSIONS:The partial surgical procedure with deroofing, evacuation of the cysts, and omentoplasty, as performed in the present study, is recommended as a safe and effective method for elimination of the entire parasite with minimal possibility for intra-peritoneal spillage.

The use of a modular titanium endoprosthesis in skeletal reconstructions after bone tumor resections: method presentation and analysis of 37 cases

We analyzed 37 patients who underwent segmental wide resection of bone tumors and reconstruction with a modular titanium endoprosthesis at the Orthopaedic Oncology Group, between 1992 and 1998. Twelve patients were male and 25 were female, with a mean age of 30 years (9 - 81). The mean follow-up was 14 months (2 - 48). The diagnoses were: osteosarcoma (14 cases), metastatic carcinoma (10), Ewing's sarcoma (4), giant cell tumor (4), malignant fibrous histiocytoma (3), chondrosarcoma (1), and aneurysmal bone cyst (1). Eleven articulated total knee, 8 partial proximal femur with bipolar acetabulum, 8 partial proximal humerus, 3 total femur, 2 partial proximal tibia, 2 diaphyseal femur, 2 diaphyseal humerus, and 1 total proximal femur with cementless acetabulum endoprosthesis implant procedures were done. The complications related to the procedure included: infection (5 cases), dislocation (3), module loosening (1), and ulnar nerve paresthesia (1). We used the following criteria for the clinical evaluation: presence of pain, range of motion, reconstruction stability, surgical and oncologic complications, and patient acceptance. The results were good in 56.8% of the cases, regular in 32.4% and poor in 10.8%.

Monitoring the treatment of sepsis with vancomycin in term newborn infants

A prospective study was conducted to determine if standardized vancomycin doses could produce adequate serum concentrations in 25 term newborn infants with sepsis. Purpose: The therapeutic response of neonatal sepsis by Staphylococcus sp. treated with vancomycin was evaluated through serum concentrations of vancomycin, serum bactericidal titers (SBT), and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). METHOD: Vancomycin serum concentrations were determined by the fluorescence polarization immunoassay technique , SBT by the macro-broth dilution method, and MIC by diffusion test in agar . RESULTS: Thirteen newborn infants (59.1%) had adequate peak vancomycin serum concentrations (20--40 mg/mL) and one had peak concentration with potential ototoxicity risk (>40 µg/mL). Only 48% had adequate trough concentrations (5--10 mg/mL), and seven (28%) had a potential nephrotoxicity risk (>10 µg/mL). There was no significant agreement regarding normality for peak and trough vancomycin method (McNemar test : p = 0.7905). Peak serum vancomycin concentrations were compared with the clinical evaluation (good or bad clinical evolution) of the infants, with no significant difference found (U=51.5; p=0.1947). There was also no significant difference between the patients' trough concentrations and good or bad clinical evolution (U = 77.0; p=0.1710). All Staphylococcus isolates were sensitive to vancomycin according to the MIC. Half of the patients with adequate trough SBT (1/8), also had adequate trough vancomycin concentrations and satisfactory clinical evolution. CONCLUSIONS: Recommended vancomycin schedules for term newborn infants with neonatal sepsis should be based on the weight and postconceptual age only to start antimicrobial therapy. There is no ideal pattern of vancomycin dosing; vancomycin dosages must be individualized. SBT interpretation should be made in conjunction with the patient's clinical presentation and vancomycin serum concentrations. Those laboratory and clinical data favor elucidation of the probable cause of patient's bad evolution, which would facilitate drug adjustment and reduce the risk of toxicity or failing to achieve therapeutic doses.

Plasma nitriding of AA2011 alloy and surface characterization by NDT techniques

Al-Cu alloys are widely used in the aerospace and automotive industries due to their high specific strength in some tempered conditions. However, due to poor corrosion and wear resistance, they are often anodized and/or painted. Plasma nitriding has been proposed as an alternative, though the developments in this technique are still in a recent stage for Al alloys. Electrical characterization techniques are well implemented NDTs in the industry because of good accuracy associated with lower cost, compared to other methods. Some, like eddy currents and 4-point probe techniques, are often used in coating inspection. The objective of this study was to perform Al nitriding at low temperatures to minimize the tempering initial condition damage and to assess the feasibility of eddy currents technique as a method for evaluating surface properties. The work developed can be divided in two stages. The first one was the process tuning, done at the Shibaura Institute of Technology, in Tokyo; and the second was the electrical characterization done in Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, UNL. Low temperature nitriding of AA2011 alloy specimens was successfully achieved. Electrical conductivity results show that lift-off measurements by eddy currents testing can be related to surface properties.

Building 3D City Models: Testing and Comparing Laser Scanning and Low-Cost UAV Data Using FOSS Technologies

Contém resumo

Lag-user method: Using laggards to leverage user innovation

Laggards are the last users to adopt a product. Prior literature on user-led innovation ignores laggards’ impact on innovation. In this paper, we develop the Lag-User Method, through which laggards can generate new ideas. Through six studies with 62 teams in three countries, we apply the method to different technologies and services and present our findings to executives to get managerial insights. Findings reveal that laggards who generate new ideas (lag-users) have different perceptions of user-friendly products and different unfulfilled needs. They prefer simple products. We propose that by involving lag-users in NPD, firms can improve the effectiveness of NPD.

New method for evaluation of cutaneous sensibility in diabetic feet: preliminary report

Diabetic neuropathy is an important complication of the disease, responsible for ulceration and amputation of the foot. Prevention of these problems is difficult mainly because there is no method to correctly access sensibility on the skin of the foot. The introduction of the Pressure-Specified Sensory Device (PSSD TM) in the last decade made possible the measurement of pressure thresholds sensed by the patient, such as touch, both static and in movement, on a continuous scale. This paper is the first in Brazil to report the use of this device to measure cutaneous sensibility in 3 areas of the foot: the hallux pulp, the calcaneus, and the dorsum, which are territories of the tibial and fibular nerves. METHOD: Non-diabetic patients were measured as controls, and 2 groups of diabetic patients - with and without ulcers - were compared. The PSSD TM was used to test the 3 areas described above. The following were evaluated: 1 PS (1-point static), 1 PD (1-point dynamic), 2 PS (2-points static), 2 PD (2-points dynamic). RESULTS: The diabetic group had poorer sensibility compared to controls and diabetics with ulcers had poorer sensibility when compared to diabetics without ulcers. The differences were statistically significant (P <.001). CONCLUSION: Due to the small number of patients compared, the results should be taken as a preliminary report.

Testing for tail breaks in currency returns

In this work project we study the tail properties of currency returns and analyze whether changes in the tail indices of these series have occurred over time as a consequence of turbulent periods. Our analysis is based on the methods introduced by Quintos, Fan and Phillips (2001), Candelon and Straetmans (2006, 2013), and their extensions. Specifically, considering a sample of daily data from December 31, 1993 to February 13, 2015 we apply the recursive test in calendar time (forward test) and in reverse calendar time (backward test) and indeed detect falls and rises in the tail indices, signifying increases and decreases in the probability of extreme events.