Mixed-phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models

Increasing optical depth poleward of 45° is a robust response to warming in global climate models. Much of this cloud optical depth increase has been hypothesized to be due to transitions from ice-dominated to liquid-dominated mixed-phase cloud. In this study, the importance of liquid-ice partitioning for the optical depth feedback is quantified for 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. All models show a monotonic partitioning of ice and liquid as a function of temperature, but the temperature at which ice and liquid are equally mixed (the glaciation temperature) varies by as much as 40 K across models. Models that have a higher glaciation temperature are found to have a smaller climatological liquid water path (LWP) and condensed water path and experience a larger increase in LWP as the climate warms. The ice-liquid partitioning curve of each model may be used to calculate the response of LWP to warming. It is found that the repartitioning between ice and liquid in a warming climate contributes at least 20% to 80% of the increase in LWP as the climate warms, depending on model. Intermodel differences in the climatological partitioning between ice and liquid are estimated to contribute at least 20% to the intermodel spread in the high-latitude LWP response in the mixed-phase region poleward of 45°S. It is hypothesized that a more thorough evaluation and constraint of global climate model mixed-phase cloud parameterizations and validation of the total condensate and ice-liquid apportionment against observations will yield a substantial reduction in model uncertainty in the high-latitude cloud response to warming.

The response of the Southern Hemispheric eddy-driven jet to future changes in shortwave radiation in CMIP5

A strong relationship is found between changes in the meridional gradient of absorbed shortwave radiation (ASR) and Southern Hemispheric jet shifts in 21st century climate simulations of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) coupled models. The relationship is such that models with increases in the meridional ASR gradient around the southern midlatitudes, and therefore increases in midlatitude baroclinicity, tend to produce a larger poleward jet shift. The ASR changes are shown to be dominated by changes in cloud properties, with sea ice declines playing a secondary role. We demonstrate that the ASR changes are the cause, and not the result, of the intermodel differences in jet response by comparing coupled simulations with experiments in which sea surface temperature increases are prescribed. Our results highlight the importance of reducing the uncertainty in cloud feedbacks in order to constrain future circulation changes.

Late persistence of the Acheulian in southern Britain in an MIS 8 interstadial: evidence from Harnham, Wiltshire

This paper presents evidence of the discovery of a new Middle Pleistocene site in central southern England, with undisturbed evidence of hominin occupation well-dated to an interstadial towards the end of Marine Isotope Stage 8, c. 250,000 BP. The site consists of a preserved remnant of a river terrace and its alluvial floodplain overlain by chalk-rich bankside deposits, all abutting a Chalk bedrock riverbank. It preserves an area of occupation with activity focused on the riverbank, complemented by occasional activity on a palaeo-landsurface developed on the surface of the alluvial floodplain. Lithic technology at the site consists almost entirely of handaxe manufacture, allowing attribution to an Acheulian industrial tradition. Mammalian and other palaeo-environmental remains are present and associated with the occupation horizons, including large mammal bones showing signs of hominin interference. Dating was based on OSL determinations on the sediments and amino acid racemisation of molluscan remains, supported by biostratigraphic indications. Besides being a rare instance of an undisturbed Palaeolithic palaeo-landscape covering several hectares, the site contributes to wider Quaternary research concerns over the ability of Middle Pleistocene hominins to tolerate colder climatic episodes in higher latitudes, and over settlement history and changing lithic industrial traditions of northwest Europe in relation to climate change and British peninsularity. It is suggested that the Harnham evidence may represent an insular population that had persisted in southern Britain since MIS 10/9, which became locally extinct during the glacial maximum 8.2 marking the end of MIS 8.

Southern Ocean isopycnal mixing and ventilation changes driven by winds

Observed and predicted changes in the strength of the westerly winds blowing over the Southern Ocean have motivated a number of studies of the response of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) to wind perturbations and led to the discovery of the``eddy-compensation" regime, wherein the MOC becomes insensitive to wind changes. In addition to the MOC, tracer transport also depends on mixing processes. Here we show, in a high-resolution process model, that isopycnal mixing by mesoscale eddies is strongly dependent on the wind strength. This dependence can be explained by mixing-length theory and is driven by increases in eddy kinetic energy; the mixing length does not change strongly in our simulation. Simulation of a passive ventilation tracer (analogous to CFCs or anthropogenic CO$_2$) demonstrates that variations in tracer uptake across experiments are dominated by changes in isopycnal mixing, rather than changes in the MOC. We argue that, to properly understand tracer uptake under different wind-forcing scenarios, the sensitivity of isopycnal mixing to winds must be accounted for.

Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years

Aim Test hypotheses that present biodiversity and endemic species richness are related to climatic stability and/or biome persistence.Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Seventy eight HadCM3 general circulation model palaeoclimate experiments spanning the last 140,000 years, plus a pre-industrial experiment,were used to calculate measures of climatic variability for 0.5° grid cells. Models were fitted relating distributions of the nine biomes of South Africa,Lesotho and Swaziland to present climate. These models were used to simulate potential past biome distribution and extent for the 78 palaeoclimate experiments, and three measures of biome persistence. Climatic response surfaces were fitted for 690 bird species regularly breeding in the region and used to simulate present species richness for cells of the 0.5° grid. Species richness was evaluated for residents, mobile species (nomadic or partially/altitudinally migrant within the region), and intra-African migrants, and also separately for endemic/near-endemic (hereafter ‘endemic’) species as a whole and those associated with each biome. Our hypotheses were tested by analysing correlations between species richness and climatic variability or biome persistence. Results The magnitude of climatic variability showed clear spatial patterns. Marked changes in biome distributions and extents were projected, although limited areas of persistence were projected for some biomes. Overall species richness was not correlated with climatic variability, although richness of mobile species showed a weak negative correlation. Endemic species richness was significantly negatively correlated with climatic variability. Strongest correlations, however, were positive correlations between biome persistence and richness of endemics associated with individual biomes. Main conclusions Low climatic variability, and especially a degree of stability enabling biome persistence, is strongly correlated with species richness of birds endemic to southern Africa. This probably principally reflects reduced extinction risk for these species where the biome to which they are adapted persisted

Integrating archaeology and palaeoecology to understand Jê landscapes in southern Brazil

Around AD 1000, the southern Brazilian highlands witnessed a convergence of phenomena: climatic change, the abrupt expansion of Araucaria forest and the appearance of large pit-houses and monumental mound and enclosure complexes, which signal fundamental socio-political and ideological change amongst southern proto-Jê (SPJ) groups. These developments raise intriguing questions regarding the relationships between people, vegetation and climate over the last 2000 years.

Annular modes and apparent eddy feedbacks in the Southern Hemisphere

Lagged correlation analysis is often used to infer intraseasonal dynamical effects but is known to be affected by non-stationarity. We highlight a pronounced quasi-two-year peak in the anomalous zonal wind and eddy momentum flux convergence power spectra in the Southern Hemisphere, which is prima facie evidence for non-stationarity. We then investigate the consequences of this non-stationarity for the Southern Annular Mode and for eddy momentum flux convergence. We argue that positive lagged correlations previously attributed to the existence of an eddy feedback are more plausibly attributed to non-stationary interannual variability external to any potential feedback process in the mid-latitude troposphere. The findings have implications for the diagnosis of feedbacks in both models and re-analysis data as well as for understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in the zonal wind.

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.

Large contribution of supercooled liquid clouds to the solar radiation budget of the Southern Ocean

The Southern Ocean is a critical region for global climate, yet large cloud and solar radiation biases over the Southern Ocean are a long-standing problem in climate models and are poorly understood, leading to biases in simulated sea surface temperatures. This study shows that supercooled liquid clouds are central to understanding and simulating the Southern Ocean environment. A combination of satellite observational data and detailed radiative transfer calculations is used to quantify the impact of cloud phase and cloud vertical structure on the reflected solar radiation in the Southern Hemisphere summer. It is found that clouds with supercooled liquid tops dominate the population of liquid clouds. The observations show that clouds with supercooled liquid tops contribute between 27% and 38% to the total reflected solar radiation between 40° and 70°S, and climate models are found to poorly simulate these clouds. The results quantify the importance of supercooled liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean environment and highlight the need to improve understanding of the physical processes that control these clouds in order to improve their simulation in numerical models. This is not only important for improving the simulation of present-day climate and climate variability, but also relevant for increasing confidence in climate feedback processes and future climate projections.

Downwelling solar irradiance in the biomass burning region of the southern Amazon: Dependence on aerosol intensive optical properties and role of water vapor

The sensitivity of solar irradiance at the surface to the variability of aerosol intensive optical properties is investigated for a site (Alta Floresta) in the southern portion of the Amazon basin using detailed comparisons between measured and modeled irradiances. Apart from aerosol intensive optical properties, specifically single scattering albedo (omega(o lambda)) and asymmetry parameter (g(lambda)), which were assumed constant, all other relevant input to the model were prescribed based on observation. For clean conditions, the differences between observed and modeled irradiances were consistent with instrumental uncertainty. For polluted conditions, the agreement was significantly worse, with a root mean square difference three times larger (23.5 Wm(-2)). Analysis revealed a noteworthy correlation between the irradiance differences (observed minus modeled) and the column water vapor (CWV) for polluted conditions. Positive differences occurred mostly in wet conditions, while the differences became more negative as the atmosphere dried. To explore the hypothesis that the irradiance differences might be linked to the modulation of omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) by humidity, AERONET retrievals of aerosol properties and CWV over the same site were analyzed. The results highlight the potential role of humidity in modifying omega(o lambda) and g(lambda) and suggest that to explain the relationship seen between irradiances differences via aerosols properties the focus has to be on humidity-dependent processes that affect particles chemical composition. Undoubtedly, there is a need to better understand the role of humidity in modifying the properties of smoke aerosols in the southern portion of the Amazon basin.

Climatological features of cutoff low systems in the Southern Hemisphere

Cutoff lows (COLs) pressure systems climatology for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), between 10 degrees S and 50 degrees S, using the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalyses are analyzed for the period 1979-1999. COLs were identified at three pressure levels (200, 300, and 500 hPa) using an objective method that considers the main physical characteristics of the conceptual model of COLs. Independently of the pressure level analyzed, the climatology from the ERA-40 reanalysis has more COLs systems than the NCEP-NCAR. However, both reanalyses present a large frequency of COLs at 300 hPa, followed by 500 and 200 hPa. The seasonality of COLs differs at each pressure level, but it is similar between the reanalyses. COLs are more frequent during summer, autumn, and winter at 200, 300, and 500 hPa, respectively. At these levels, they tend to occur around the continents, preferentially from southeastern Australia to New Zealand, the south of South America, and the south of Africa. To study the COLs at 200 and 300 hPa from a regional perspective, the SH was divided in three regions: Australia-New Zealand (60 E-130 W), South America (130 degrees W-20 degrees W), and southern Africa (20 degrees W-60 degrees E). The common COLs features in these sectors for both reanalyses are a short lifetime (similar to 80.0% and similar to 70.0% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, persisting for up to 3 days), mobility (similar to 70.0% and similar to 50% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, traveling distances of up to 1200 km), and an eastward propagation.

Rossby wave propagation tracks in southern hemisphere mean basic flows associated to generalized frosts over southern South America

Based on previous observational studies on cold extreme events over southern South America, some recent studies suggest a possible relationship between Rossby wave propagation remotely triggered and the occurrence of frost. Using the concept of linear theory of Rossby wave propagation, this paper analyzes the propagation of such waves in two different basic states that correspond to austral winters with maximum and minimum generalized frost frequency of occurrence in the Wet Pampa (central-northwest Argentina). In order to determine the wave trajectories, the ray tracing technique is used in this study. Some theoretical discussion about this technique is also presented. The analysis of the basic state, from a theoretical point of view and based on the calculation of ray tracings, corroborates that remotely excited Rossby waves is the mechanism that favors the maximum occurrence of generalized frosts. The basic state in which the waves propagate is what conditions the places where they are excited. The Rossby waves are excited in determined places of the atmosphere, propagating towards South America along the jet streams that act as wave guides, favoring the generation of generalized frosts. In summary, this paper presents an overview of the ray tracing technique and how it can be used to investigate an important synoptic event, such as frost in a specific region, and its relationship with the propagation of large scale planetary waves.

Absolute Thellier paleointensities from Ponta Grossa dikes (southern Brazil) and the early Cretaceous geomagnetic field strength

We report a detailed rock magnetic and Thellier paleointensity study from similar to 130.5 Ma Ponta Grossa Dike Swarms in Southern Brazil. Twenty-nine samples from seven cooling units were pre-selected for paleointensity experiments based on their low viscosity index, stable remanent magnetization and close to reversible continuous thermomagnetic curves. 19 samples characterized by negative pTRM tests, Arai concave- up curves or positive pTRM tests with NRM loss uncorrelated with TRM acquisition were rejected. High quality reliable paleointensity determinations are determined from detailed evaluation criteria, with 10 samples belonging to three dikes passing the tests. The site-mean paleointensity values obtained in this study range from 25.6 +/- 4.3 to 11.3 +/- 2.1 mu T and the corresponding VDM`s range from 5.7 +/- 0.9 to 2.5 +/- 0.5 (10(22) Am(2)). These data yield a VDM mean value of 4.1 +/- 1.6 x 10(22) Am(2). Significant variability of Earth`s magnetic field strength is observed for Ponta Grossa Dikes with the mean value being significantly lower as compared to the mean VDM obtained from the nearby Parana Magmatic Province. The paleointensities for the Ponta Grossa Dikes are in agreement with absolute paleointensities retrieved from the submarine basaltic glasses from 130 to 120 Ma. It seems that a relatively low field prevailed just before the Cretaceous Normal Superchron.

Uranium series disequilibria in ground waters from a fractured bedrock aquifer (Morungaba Granitoids-Southern Brazil): Implications to the hydrochemical behavior of dissolved U and Ra

Activity concentrations of dissolved U-234, U-238, Ra-226 and Ra-228 were determined in ground waters fromtwo deep wells drilled in Morungaba Granitoids (Southern Brazil). Sampling was done monthly for little longer than 1 year. Significant disequilibrium between U-238, U-234 and Ra-226 were observed in all samples. The variation of U-238 and U-234 activity concentrations and U-234/U-238 activity ratios is related to seasonal changes. Although the distance between the two wells is short (about 900m), systematic differences of activity concentrations of U isotopes, as well as of U-234/U-238, Ra-226/U-234 and Ra-228/Ra-226 activity ratios were noticed, indicating distinct host rock-water interactions. Slightly acidic ground water percolation through heterogeneous host rock, associated with different recharge processes, may explain uranium and radium isotope behavior. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil modulated by interannual and interdecadal variability

The frequency of extreme rainfall events in Southern Brazil is impacted by Ell Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, especially in austral spring. There are two areas in which this impact is more significant: one is on the coast, where extreme events are more frequent during El Nino (EN) and the other one extends inland, where extreme events increase during EN and decrease during La Nina (LN). Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with severe rainfall in those areas are similar (opposite) to anomalous patterns characteristic of EN (LN) episodes, indicating why increase (decrease) of extreme events in EN (LN) episodes is favoured. The most recurrent precipitation patterns during extreme rainfall events in each of these areas are disclosed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and evidence the separation between extreme events in these areas: a severe precipitation event generally does not occur simultaneously in the coast and inland, although they may Occur inland and in the coastal region in sequence. Although EN predominantly enhances extreme rainfall, there are EN years in which fewer severe events occur than the average of neutral years, and also the enhancement of extreme rainfall is not uniform for different EN episodes, because the interdecadal non-ENSO variability also modulates significantly the frequency of extreme events in Southern Brazil. The inland region, which is more affected, shows increase (decrease) of extreme rainfall in association with the negative (positive) phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, with the negative (positive) phase of the Pacific Multidecadal Variability and with the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Variability. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society