The economics of credit markets: theory and evidence.

Doutoramento em Economia.

CRISIS ALIMENTARIA Y DESAFÍOS DE LA SEGURIDAD ALIMENTARIA EN CENTROAMÉRICA

Resumen La crisis mundial de alimentos puso en evidencia la vulnerabilidad de los sistemas alimenticios, demostrando que el impacto más profundo se produce en los países con una mayor dependencia en la importación de alimentos y acompañados de mayores niveles de pobreza. En la región centroamericana, la crisis podría provocar un incremento del costo de la canasta básica alimentaria, un menor acceso a los alimentos, un aumento en la pobreza y en la inseguridad alimentaria y nutricional de la población más vulnerable. Abstract The international food crisis showed the vulnerability of the food supply system. The crisis exposed that the deepest shocks were produced in the countries with the major dependency in imports and highest levels of poverty. In the upcoming moths, the crisis could provoke an increase in the cost of the alimentary basic basket, a decrease in food access and an enlargement of poverty levels for the countries in Central America. In addition, the weakness on the sovereignty in the alimentary and nutritional security will provoke a major vulnerability in the population with the lowest income.

ADAPTABILIDAD DE LAS FAMILIAS AGRÍCOLAS ANTE PRESIONES ECONÓMICAS Y ECOLÓGICAS: UN CASO DE CAFÉ DE ALTURA EN LEÓN CORTÉS, COSTA RICA

Resumen Los medios de vida de las familias productoras de café de altura están ligados a la finca. Esta relación tan marcada (familia – finca) los hace vulnerables a presiones externas que alteran el funcionamiento cotidiano interno de la unidad productiva. Dentro de estas presiones externas se encuentran los bajos precios, efectos climáticos y plagas en el cafetal. El artículo busca identificar los impactos que ejercen dichas presiones sobre los medios de vida de las familias cafetaleras del cantón de León Cortés, además se intenta mostrar las estrategias que han seguido estas unidades familiares para poder soportar y reponerse a los impactos generados por el clima, las plagas y la inestabilidad de precios del café. Las familias han generado diversas “estrategias de adaptación” en relación con los precios bajos, las organizaciones de productores han buscado nuevas alternativas de comercialización del café, tales como mercado justo y denominación de origen; además, han buscado la generación de un mayor valor agregado mediante la diversificación del producto final enfocado al café de calidad y a la presentación de café molido. Por su parte, las unidades familiares han buscado alternativas de diversificación como la siembra de aguacate. Para combatir las plagas los productores se han enfocado en la introducción de prácticas de conservación de suelos, mejorar sistemas de recolección e introducir sombra en los cultivos; el combate químico también ha sido una estrategia. Por último, la presión del clima no había sido muy tomada en cuenta por los caficultores de la zona, sin embargo, la Tormenta Alma sufrida en el año 2008 hizo que los caficultores comenzaran a pensar en un manejo adecuado y sostenible de la finca que minimice el riesgo climático. Abstract Livelihoods of family coffee growers are strongly determined by their farm. This makes families vulnerable to external shocks that affect the operations in the plot. Within these external shocks are included low prices, pests, and climate effects on the plantation. This paper aims to identify the impact of the aforementioned shocks on family coffee grower livelihoods in the canton of León Cortés. For this purpose, the article shows the strategies followed by families in order to support and recover themselves from the impact which come from climate, pests, and coffee price instability. Families have pursued various “adapting strategies”. Regarding low prices, producers' organizations have sought coffee marketing alternatives, such as fair trade and appellation of origin. Likewise, they work on increasing added value through diversification, improving coffee quality, and by a better packaging of ground coffee. Also, households have sought diversification options, such as avocado production. In order to combat pests, producers have focused on the introduction of soil conservation practices, improvement of collection systems, growing trees on coffee plantations, and chemical control. Finally, climate shocks had not been considered as a real problem by the farmers until the storm Alma affected the region. Nowadays, they think more about sound and sustainable management for their farm.

Decline and re-expansion of an amphibian with high prevalence of chytrid fungus

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a key driver of global amphibian declines. While chytridiomycosis can cause extinction, many susceptible species persist after an initial period of decline, albeit with reduced abundance and distribution. Emerging evidence indicates that amphibian abundance can recover within remnant populations, but to date, the capacity of amphibian populations to re-expand into historically occupied habitat has received limited research attention. We surveyed 145 sites in 2011 and 2012 to determine if populations of the whistling tree frog (Litoria verreauxii verreauxii) have re-expanded compared with historical data from 1975-1976, 1990 and 1996. L. v. verreauxii underwent a major range contraction likely caused by chytridiomycosis between the first two time periods. Populations have recently re-expanded, with 39 new sites colonised despite high prevalence of Bd. We suspect that changes in disease dynamics have resulted in the increased coexistence of L. v. verreauxii and Bd. Habitat attributes at sites that retained frogs for the duration of the study indicate that high quality habitat may contribute to buffering against population level effects of Bd. Colonised sites had more coarse woody debris, suggesting a possible habitat management strategy to encourage range expansion for this species. Given sufficient time and adequate source populations in high quality habitat, it is possible that other amphibian species may re-expand from chytridiomycosis-induced declines. This provides an impetus for the protection of historical, but currently unoccupied amphibian habitats and highlights the importance of maintaining high quality habitat to help species survive novel shocks such as pandemic diseases.

Performance assessment, vulnerability, human capital, and the allocation of aid among developing countries

Developing country performance with respect to economic policies and institutional behavior is a common criterion for the allocation of aid among recipient countries. This paper examines how performance is used, arguing that performance is too narrowly defined. A more appropriate definition is one that controls for the economic vulnerability and human capital of developing countries. Econometric analysis of cross-section and panel data is presented that supports this contention. The paper also contends that performance and exogenous economic shocks are likely to be pro-cyclical. This implies a double punishment when aid is allocated according to performance. Evidence of such punishment is also provided. The paper concludes by arguing that economic vulnerability and human capital variables should augment performance measures in aid allocation decision-making.

Economic growth and carbon emissions

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 181 countries. We propose a new approach based on the cross-correlation estimates to understand how economic growth and CO2 emissions are related. Our proposal is that if there is a positive cross-correlation between the current level of income and the past level of CO2 emissions and a negative cross-correlation between the current level of income and the future CO2 emissions, then CO2 emissions will decline with an increase in income over time, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, for 21 out of 181 countries (12%), there is clear evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. Second, we ask whether a rise in income reduces emissions in the future. We find that for 49 countries (27%), income growth will reduce emissions in the future.

Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits

We examine stock return predictability for India and find strong evidence of sectoral return predictability over market return predictability. We show that mean-variance investors make statistically significant and economically meaningful profits by tracking financial ratios. For the first time in this literature, we examine the determinants of time-varying predictability and mean-variance profits. We show that both expected and unexpected shocks emanating from most financial ratios explain sectoral return predictability and profits. These are fresh contributions to the understanding of asset pricing.

Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: evidence from Latin America

We utilize the default by Argentina in 2001 and the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, as natural experiments, to monitor the complex interactions between sovereign bonds when subjected to endogenous and exogenous shocks. By forming pairs of Latin American sovereign bonds, bundled into similar maturity class, the analysis highlights the complex nature of risk shifting, and the temporal nature of the volatility transmission and sharing mechanisms in the lead up to, and after, a crisis period. The results show that shorter maturity groups and longer maturity groups behave in fundamentally different ways in terms of volatility transmission, while one or two leading countries act as regional benchmarks. The dynamics are consistent with temporal but segmented investor preferences, with the arrival of crisis contributing to a breakdown in the previous relationships. In addition, there is additional economic benefit from utilizing knowledge of the volatility structure underlying the historic transmission channels to improve the portfolio outcomes of market participants.

Small amount credit contract reforms in Australia: household survey evidence & analysis

A review of small amount credit contract regulation in Australia began in 2015 as mandated under s 335A of the National Consumer Credit Protection Act 2009 (Cth). The review panel sought comprehensive data on industry and consumer characteristics and trends. To provide such evidence, consumer groups commissioned original empirical research using data collected from a longitudinal survey that monitors the financial position and attitudes of Australian households. This data on household use of small amount credit contract loans was extracted for the last decade, allowing detailed analysis of the historical patterns and developing trends. The data indicates that overall demand for small amount short duration credit is growing in Australia, the consumer base is broadening, and the predominant form of lending today is online. Deeper analysis highlights the varying motivations of borrower households and their different stages and levels of financial difficulty. It also confirms the socio-economic, employment, educational and financial disadvantages of most households using these loans and their vulnerability to adverse changes in personal circumstances and negative external shocks.

Do increases in oil prices precede U.S. recessions?

This thesis examines the relationship between oil prices and economic activity, and it attempts to address the question: do increases in oil prices (oil shocks) precede U.S. recessions? This paper also applied macroeconomics, either through the direct use of a macroeconomic point of view or using a combination of mathematical and statistical models. Two mathematical and statistical models are used to determine the ability of oil prices to predict recessions in the United States. First, using the binary cyclical (Bry-Boschan method) indicator procedure to test the turning point of oil prices compared with turning points in GDP finds that oil prices almost always turn five month before a recession, suggesting that an oil shock might occur before a recession. Second, the Granger causality test shows that oil prices change do Granger cause U.S. recessions, indicating that oil prices are a useful signal to indicate a U.S. recession. Finally, combining this analysis with the literature, there are several potential explanations that the spike in oil prices result in slower GDP growth and are a contributing factor to U.S. recessions.

The Nature of Microvariability in Blazar 0716+714

We organized an international campaign to observe the blazar 0716+714 in the optical band. The observations took place from February 24, 2009 to February 26, 2009. The global campaign was carried out by observers from more that sixteen countries and resulted in an extended light curve nearly seventy-eight hours long. The analysis and the modeling of this light curve form the main work of this dissertation project. In the first part of this work, we present the time series and noise analyses of the data. The time series analysis utilizes discrete Fourier transform and wavelet analysis routines to search for periods in the light curve. We then present results of the noise analysis which is based on the idea that each microvariability curve is the realization of the same underlying stochastic noise processes in the blazar jet. Neither reoccuring periods nor random noise can successfully explain the observed optical fluctuations. Hence in the second part, we propose and develop a new model to account for the microvariability we see in blazar 0716+714. We propose that the microvariability is due to the emission from turbulent regions in the jet that are energized by the passage of relativistic shocks. Emission from each turbulent cell forms a pulse of emission, and when convolved with other pulses, yields the observed light curve. We use the model to obtain estimates of the physical parameters of the emission regions in the jet.

Economic impact of political protests (strikes) on manufacturing firms : evidence from Bangladesh

Political protests in the form of strikes, locally known as hartal, remain quite common in the Indian subcontinent countries. Such a form of protests is associated with mass movement, intended to cause a total shutdown of economic activities and often results in coercion, violence, and damage to both public and private properties. Utilizing the World Bank Enterprise survey data of 2007 and 2013 of Bangladesh, this study examines the impacts of hartals on manufacturing firms. We find that political protests significantly increase costs for firms. Using flexible cost function based on factor analysis we see that the factor-neutral effect of strikes is positive and statistically significant, showing evidence of a reduction in firm productivity due to hartals. However, we did not find any evidence for systematic factor re-optimization by firms – in response to political strikes – suggesting that firms do not reallocate factor shares to tackle uncertain and irregular shocks like hartals.

Enhanced noradrenergic activity in the amygdala contributes to hyperarousal in an animal model of PTSD

Increased activity of the noradrenergic system in the amygdala has been suggested to contribute to the hyperarousal symptoms associated with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, only two studies have examined the content of noradrenaline or its metabolites in the amygdala of rats previously exposed to traumatic stress showing inconsistent results. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of an inescapable foot shock (IFS) procedure 1) on reactivity to novelty in an open-field (as an index of hyperarousal), and 2) on noradrenaline release in the amygdala during an acute stress. To test the role of noradrenaline in amygdala, we also investigated the effects of microinjections of propranolol, a β-adrenoreceptor antagonist, and clenbuterol, a β-adrenoreceptor agonist, into the amygdala of IFS and control animals. Finally, we evaluated the expression of mRNA levels of β-adrenoreceptors (β1 and β2) in the amygdala, the hippocampus and the prefrontal cortex. Male Wistar rats (3 months) were stereotaxically implanted with bilateral guide cannulae. After recovering from surgery, animals were exposed to IFS (10 shocks, 0.86 mA, and 6 seconds per shock) and seven days later either microdialysis or microinjections were performed in amygdala. Animals exposed to IFS showed a reduced locomotion compared to non-shocked animals during the first 5 minutes in the open-field. In the amygdala, IFS animals showed an enhanced increase of noradrenaline induced by stress compared to control animals. Bilateral microinjections of propranolol (0.5 μg) into the amygdala one hour before testing in the open-field normalized the decreased locomotion observed in IFS animals. On the other hand, bilateral microinjections of clenbuterol (30 ng) into the amygdala of control animals did not change the exploratory activity induced by novelty in the open field. IFS modified the mRNA expression of β1 and β2 adrenoreceptors in the prefrontal cortex and the hippocampus. These results suggest that an increased noradrenergic activity in the amygdala contributes to the expression of hyperarousal in an animal model of PTSD.

Volatility transmission between stock and exchange-rate markets: A connectedness analysis

This paper empirically investigates volatility transmission among stock and foreign exchange markets in seven major world economies during the period July 1988 to January 2015. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each market. To gain further insights, we examine the time-varying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness during the financial turmoil periods experienced in the sample period Our results suggest that slightly more than half of the total variance of the forecast errors is explained by shocks across markets rather than by idiosyncratic shocks. Furthermore, we find that volatility connectedness varies over time, with a surge during periods of increasing economic and financial instability.

Crossing the faith boundary

Improving the well-being of poor and vulnerable communities often requires external resources and interventions. Existing resource constraints, existing social and political structures, existing environmental circumstances, and existing economic realities are often insurmountable. Vulnerable and poor communities cannot challenge or overcome them on their own. External resources and interventions are often vital. They can act as shocks to existing systems that maintain vulnerability, can facilitate empowerment for those submerged in the dehumanisation of poverty, and can help local communities develop the capacity to equip themselves and assume the role of change agents for their own futures. The provision of such external resources and interventions is often facilitated through the involvement of non-government organisations (NGOs) that have developed expertise in working with and alongside local communities to identify, plan, implement and evaluate development interventions. These NGOs may be local to the communities themselves or be external and sit outside the partnered community. Often international NGOs partner with local ones in assisting local communities. However, collaboration between international and local NGOs, and between NGOs and local communities, should not be assumed to be without difficulty and challenges. Trust between partners, and between external agents of potential change and the communities that are the objects of these interventions, is a core component of successful collaborations.