Exchange rate pass-through to prices in macrodata: a comparative sensitivity analysis

This paper compares exchange rate pass-through to aggregate prices in the US, Germany and Japan across a number of dimensions. Building on the empirical approaches in the recent literature, our contribution is to perform a thorough sensitivity analysis of pass-through estimates. We find that the econometric method, data frequency and variable proxy employed matter for the precision of details, yet they often agree on some general trends. Thus, pass-through to import prices has declined in the 1990s relative to the 1980s, pass-through to export prices remains country-specific and pass-through to consumer prices is nowadays negligible in all three economies we considered.

Sensitivity of GCM tropical middle atmosphere variability and climate to ozone and parametrized gravity wave changes

This paper describes the impact of changing the current imposed ozone climatology upon the tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in a high top climate configuration of the Met Office U.K. general circulation model. The aim is to help distinguish between QBO changes in chemistry climate models that result from temperature-ozone feedbacks and those that might be forced by differences in climatology between previously fixed and newly interactive ozone distributions. Different representations of zonal mean ozone climatology under present-day conditions are taken to represent the level of change expected between acceptable model realizations of the global ozone distribution and thus indicate whether more detailed investigation of such climatology issues might be required when assessing ozone feedbacks. Tropical stratospheric ozone concentrations are enhanced relative to the control climatology between 20–30 km, reduced from 30–40 km and enhanced above, impacting the model profile of clear-sky radiative heating, in particular warming the tropical stratosphere between 15–35 km. The outcome is consistent with a localized equilibrium response in the tropical stratosphere that generates increased upwelling between 100 and 4 hPa, sufficient to account for a 12 month increase of modeled mean QBO period. This response has implications for analysis of the tropical circulation in models with interactive ozone chemistry because it highlights the possibility that plausible changes in the ozone climatology could have a sizable impact upon the tropical upwelling and QBO period that ought to be distinguished from other dynamical responses such as ozone-temperature feedbacks.

Selective biodegradation of keratin matrix in feather rachis reveals classic bioengineering

Flight necessitates that the feather rachis is extremely tough and light. Yet, the crucial filamentous hierarchy of the rachis is unknown—study hindered by the tight chemical bonding between the filaments and matrix. We used novel microbial biodegradation to delineate the fibres of the rachidial cortex in situ. It revealed the thickest keratin filaments known to date (factor >10), approximately 6 µm thick, extending predominantly axially but with a small outer circumferential component. Near-periodic thickened nodes of the fibres are staggered with those in adjacent fibres in two- and three-dimensional planes, creating a fibre–matrix texture with high attributes for crack stopping and resistance to transverse cutting. Close association of the fibre layer with the underlying ‘spongy’ medulloid pith indicates the potential for higher buckling loads and greater elastic recoil. Strikingly, the fibres are similar in dimensions and form to the free filaments of the feather vane and plumulaceous and embryonic down, the syncitial barbules, but, identified for the first time in 140+ years of study in a new location—as a major structural component of the rachis. Early in feather evolution, syncitial barbules were consolidated in a robust central rachis, definitively characterizing the avian lineage of keratin.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas-particle interactions (Poschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory studies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (carbon-carbon double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of many hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (< 10(-10) cm(2) s(-1)). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Kinetic multi-layer model of aerosol surface and bulk chemistry (KM-SUB): the influence of interfacial transport and bulk diffusion on the oxidation of oleic acid by ozone

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model that explicitly resolves mass transport and chemical reaction at the surface and in the bulk of aerosol particles (KM-SUB). The model is based on the PRA framework of gas–particle interactions (P¨oschl et al., 5 2007), and it includes reversible adsorption, surface reactions and surface-bulk exchange as well as bulk diffusion and reaction. Unlike earlier models, KM-SUB does not require simplifying assumptions about steady-state conditions and radial mixing. The temporal evolution and concentration profiles of volatile and non-volatile species at the gas-particle interface and in the particle bulk can be modeled along with surface 10 concentrations and gas uptake coefficients. In this study we explore and exemplify the effects of bulk diffusion on the rate of reactive gas uptake for a simple reference system, the ozonolysis of oleic acid particles, in comparison to experimental data and earlier model studies. We demonstrate how KM-SUB can be used to interpret and analyze experimental data from laboratory stud15 ies, and how the results can be extrapolated to atmospheric conditions. In particular, we show how interfacial transport and bulk transport, i.e., surface accommodation, bulk accommodation and bulk diffusion, influence the kinetics of the chemical reaction. Sensitivity studies suggest that in fine air particulate matter oleic acid and compounds with similar reactivity against ozone (C=C double bonds) can reach chemical lifetimes of 20 multiple hours only if they are embedded in a (semi-)solid matrix with very low diffusion coefficients (10−10 cm2 s−1). Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of volatile and non-volatile species and chemical reactions can be flexibly added and treated with KM-SUB. We propose and intend to pursue the application of KM-SUB 25 as a basis for the development of a detailed master mechanism of aerosol chemistry as well as for the derivation of simplified but realistic parameterizations for large-scale atmospheric and climate models.

Infant sensitivity to negative maternal emotional shifts: Effects of infant sex, maternal postnatal depression, and interactive style

This study examined the effects of infant sex, maternal postnatal depression, and maternal interactive style on infant sensitivity to maternal negative emotional shifts. Face-to-face interactions of 68 mother–infant dyads were analyzed at 8 and 18 weeks. Twenty-five (28%) mothers had postnatal depression. Interactions were analyzed in terms of overall maternal interactive style: “sensitive,” “anxious,” “intrusive,” and “sad.” Episodes of negative shifts in maternal emotional expression were recorded, along with expressions of infant sensitivity to these changes. Daughters of depressed mothers showed higher rates of sensitivity to maternal negative emotion whereas their sons showed lower rates, in comparison to both girl and boy infants of well mothers. While maternal interactive style had no effect on 8-week infant sensitivity to maternal negative emotional shifts, high rates of 18-week infant sensitivity were predicted by both an 8-week and a concurrent, “sad” maternal interactive style. The findings are discussed in relation to theories of emotional and interpersonal development.

Enhanced sensitivity to rapamycin following long-term oestrogen deprivation in MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1 human breast cancer cells

Human breast cancer cells (MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1) can adapt to circumvent any reduced growth rate during long-term oestrogen deprivation, and this provides three model systems to investigate mechanisms of endocrine resistance in breast cancer. In this paper we report consistent differences in the effects of three growth inhibitors following long-term oestrogen deprivation in all three cell models. Long-term oestrogen deprivation of MCF-7, T-47-D and ZR-75-1 cells resulted in reduced growth inhibition by PD98059 (2–10 µg/ml), implying a loss of dependence on mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways for growth. The growth inhibitor LY294002 (2–10 µM) inhibited growth of both oestrogen-maintained and oestrogen-deprived cells with similar dose–responses, implying continued similar dependence on phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) pathways with no alteration after adaptation to oestrogen independent growth. However, by contrast, long-term oestrogen deprivation resulted in an increased sensitivity to growth inhibition by rapamycin, which was not reduced by readdition of oestradiol. The enhanced inhibition of long-term oestrogen-deprived MCF-7-ED, T-47-D-ED and ZR-75-1-ED cell growth by combining rapamycin with LY294002 at concentrations where each alone had little effect, offers preclinical support to the development of therapeutic combinations of rapamycin analogues with other PI3K inhibitors in endocrine-resistant breast cancer.

Sensitivity analysis of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model under two different flow regimes

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling cyanobacterial behaviour in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. A new deterministic–mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including light, nutrients and temperature. A parameter sensitivity analysis using a one-at-a-time approach was carried out. There were two objectives of the sensitivity analysis presented in this paper: to identify the key parameters controlling the growth and movement patterns of cyanobacteria and to provide a means for model validation. The result of the analysis suggested that maximum growth rate and day length period were the most significant parameters in determining the population growth and colony depth, respectively.

Acute effects of meal fatty acid composition on insulin sensitivity in healthy post-menopausal women

Postprandial plasma insulin concentrations after a single high-fat meal may be modified by the presence of specific fatty acids although the effects of sequential meal ingestion are unknown. The aim of the present study was to examine the effects of altering the fatty acid composition in a single mixed fat-carbohydrate meal on glucose metabolism and insulin sensitivity of a second meal eaten 5 h later. Insulin sensitivity was assessed using a minimal model approach. Ten healthy post-menopausal women underwent four two-meal studies in random order. A high-fat breakfast (40 g fat) where the fatty acid composition was predominantly saturated fatty acids (SFA), n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), long-chain n-3 PUFA or monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) was followed 5 h later by a low-fat, high-carbohydrate lunch (5.7 g fat), which was identical in all four studies. The plasma insulin response was significantly higher following the SFA meal than the other meals after both breakfast and lunch (P<0.006) although there was no effect of breakfast fatty acid composition on plasma glucose concentrations. Postprandial insulin sensitivity (SI(Oral)) was assessed for 180 min after each meal. SI(Oral) was significantly lower after lunch than after breakfast for all four test meals (P=0.019) following the same rank order (SFA < n-6 PUFA < n-3 PUFA < MUFA) for each meal. The present study demonstrates that a single meal rich in SFA reduces postprandial insulin sensitivity with 'carry-over' effects for the next meal.

A sensitivity study for water availability in the Northern Caucasus based on climate projections

A strong climatic warming is currently observed in the Caucasus mountains, which has profound impact on runoff generation in the glaciated Glavny (Main) Range and on water availability in the whole region. To assess future changes in the hydrological cycle, the output of a general circulation model was downscaled statistically. For the 21st century, a further warming by 4–7 °C and a slight precipitation increase is predicted. Measured and simulated meteorological variables were used as input into a runoff model to transfer climate signals into a hydrological response under both present and future climate forcings. Runoff scenarios for the mid and the end of the 21st century were generated for different steps of deglaciation. The results show a satisfactory model performance for periods with observed runoff. Future water availability strongly depends on the velocity of glacier retreat. In a first phase, a surplus of water will increase flood risk in hot years and after continuing glacier reduction, annual runoff will again approximate current values. However, the seasonal distribution of streamflow will change towards runoff increase in spring and lower flows in summer.

Variation in the sensitivity of DOC release between different organic soils following H2SO4 and sea-salt additions

Long-term monitoring data from eastern North America and Europe indicate a link between increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in surface waters over the last two decades and decreased atmospheric pollutant and marine sulphur (S) deposition. The hypothesis is that decreased acidity and ionic strength associated with declining S deposition has increased the solubility of DOC. However, the sign and magnitude of DOC trends have varied between sites, and in some cases at sites where S deposition has declined, no significant increase in DOC has been observed, creating uncertainty about the causal mechanisms driving the observed trends. In this paper, we demonstrate chemical regulation of DOC release from organic soils in batch experiments caused by changes in acidity and conductivity (measured as a proxy for ionic strength) associated with controlled SO42− additions. DOC release from the top 10 cm of the O-horizon of organo-mineral soils and peats decreased by 21–60% in response to additions of 0–437 µeq SO42− l−1 sulphuric acid (H2SO4) and neutral sea-salt solutions (containing Na+, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−) over a 20-hour extraction period. A significant decrease in the proportion of the acid-sensitive coloured aromatic humic acids (measured by specific ultra-violet absorbance (SUVA) at 254 nm) was also found with increasing acidity (P < 0.05) in most, but not all, soils, confirming that DOC quality, as well as quantity, changed with SO42− additions. DOC release appeared to be more sensitive to increased acidity than to increased conductivity. By comparing the change in DOC release with bulk soil properties, we found that DOC release from the O-horizon of organo-mineral soils and semi-confined peats, which contained greater exchangeable aluminium (Al) and had lower base saturation (BS), were more sensitive to SO42− additions than DOC release from blanket peats with low concentrations of exchangeable Al and greater BS. Therefore, variation in soil type and acid/base status between sites may partly explain the difference in the magnitude of DOC changes seen at different sites where declines in S deposition have been similar.

Forecast impact of targeted observations: sensitivity to observation error and proximity to steep orography

For a targeted observations case, the dependence of the size of the forecast impact on the targeted dropsonde observation error in the data assimilation is assessed. The targeted observations were made in the lee of Greenland; the dependence of the impact on the proximity of the observations to the Greenland coast is also investigated. Experiments were conducted using the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), over a limited-area domain at 24-km grid spacing, with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) scheme. Reducing the operational dropsonde observation errors by one-half increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 7%–10%, measured in terms of total energy. However, the largest impact is seen by replacing two dropsondes on the Greenland coast with two farther from the steep orography; this increases the maximum forecast improvement from 5% to 18% for an 18-h forecast (using operational observation errors). Forecast degradation caused by two dropsonde observations on the Greenland coast is shown to arise from spreading of data by the background errors up the steep slope of Greenland. Removing boundary layer data from these dropsondes reduces the forecast degradation, but it is only a partial solution to this problem. Although only from one case study, these results suggest that observations positioned within a correlation length scale of steep orography may degrade the forecast through the anomalous upslope spreading of analysis increments along terrain-following model levels.