988 resultados para semi-parametric estimation


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Composite flooring systems supported by tapered (varying web depth) beams are very attractive from an economic point of view. However, the tapered beam sections are fabricated from plate by welding, and are susceptible to imperfection effects. These may interact with the localised compressive stress field that is generated in the web at a slope change in the lower flange to cause local web buckling. A substantial parametric study using a non-linear elasto-plastic finite element program and covering practical ranges of the important parameters including the area of the tension flange, taper slope and web thickness is reported. Moment-rotation relations, peak moments and failure mechanisms have been predicted. The validity of the work is supported by the good correlation obtained between the results of the parametric study and experimental data.

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State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

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The recent emergence of low-cost RGB-D sensors has brought new opportunities for robotics by providing affordable devices that can provide synchronized images with both color and depth information. In this thesis, recent work on pose estimation utilizing RGBD sensors is reviewed. Also, a pose recognition system for rigid objects using RGB-D data is implemented. The implementation uses half-edge primitives extracted from the RGB-D images for pose estimation. The system is based on the probabilistic object representation framework by Detry et al., which utilizes Nonparametric Belief Propagation for pose inference. Experiments are performed on household objects to evaluate the performance and robustness of the system.

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More discussion is required on how and which types of biomass should be used to achieve a significant reduction in the carbon load released into the atmosphere in the short term. The energy sector is one of the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters and thus its role in climate change mitigation is important. Replacing fossil fuels with biomass has been a simple way to reduce carbon emissions because the carbon bonded to biomass is considered as carbon neutral. With this in mind, this thesis has the following objectives: (1) to study the significance of the different GHG emission sources related to energy production from peat and biomass, (2) to explore opportunities to develop more climate friendly biomass energy options and (3) to discuss the importance of biogenic emissions of biomass systems. The discussion on biogenic carbon and other GHG emissions comprises four case studies of which two consider peat utilization, one forest biomass and one cultivated biomasses. Various different biomass types (peat, pine logs and forest residues, palm oil, rapeseed oil and jatropha oil) are used as examples to demonstrate the importance of biogenic carbon to life cycle GHG emissions. The biogenic carbon emissions of biomass are defined as the difference in the carbon stock between the utilization and the non-utilization scenarios of biomass. Forestry-drained peatlands were studied by using the high emission values of the peatland types in question to discuss the emission reduction potential of the peatlands. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential (GWP) values. Based on the results, the climate impact of the peat production can be reduced by selecting high-emission-level peatlands for peat production. The comparison of the two different types of forest biomass in integrated ethanol production in pulp mill shows that the type of forest biomass impacts the biogenic carbon emissions of biofuel production. The assessment of cultivated biomasses demonstrates that several selections made in the production chain significantly affect the GHG emissions of biofuels. The emissions caused by biofuel can exceed the emissions from fossil-based fuels in the short term if biomass is in part consumed in the process itself and does not end up in the final product. Including biogenic carbon and other land use carbon emissions into the carbon footprint calculations of biofuel reveals the importance of the time frame and of the efficiency of biomass carbon content utilization. As regards the climate impact of biomass energy use, the net impact on carbon stocks (in organic matter of soils and biomass), compared to the impact of the replaced energy source, is the key issue. Promoting renewable biomass regardless of biogenic GHG emissions can increase GHG emissions in the short term and also possibly in the long term.

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The power rating of wind turbines is constantly increasing; however, keeping the voltage rating at the low-voltage level results in high kilo-ampere currents. An alternative for increasing the power levels without raising the voltage level is provided by multiphase machines. Multiphase machines are used for instance in ship propulsion systems, aerospace applications, electric vehicles, and in other high-power applications including wind energy conversion systems. A machine model in an appropriate reference frame is required in order to design an efficient control for the electric drive. Modeling of multiphase machines poses a challenge because of the mutual couplings between the phases. Mutual couplings degrade the drive performance unless they are properly considered. In certain multiphase machines there is also a problem of high current harmonics, which are easily generated because of the small current path impedance of the harmonic components. However, multiphase machines provide special characteristics compared with the three-phase counterparts: Multiphase machines have a better fault tolerance, and are thus more robust. In addition, the controlled power can be divided among more inverter legs by increasing the number of phases. Moreover, the torque pulsation can be decreased and the harmonic frequency of the torque ripple increased by an appropriate multiphase configuration. By increasing the number of phases it is also possible to obtain more torque per RMS ampere for the same volume, and thus, increase the power density. In this doctoral thesis, a decoupled d–q model of double-star permanent-magnet (PM) synchronous machines is derived based on the inductance matrix diagonalization. The double-star machine is a special type of multiphase machines. Its armature consists of two three-phase winding sets, which are commonly displaced by 30 electrical degrees. In this study, the displacement angle between the sets is considered a parameter. The diagonalization of the inductance matrix results in a simplified model structure, in which the mutual couplings between the reference frames are eliminated. Moreover, the current harmonics are mapped into a reference frame, in which they can be easily controlled. The work also presents methods to determine the machine inductances by a finite-element analysis and by voltage-source inverters on-site. The derived model is validated by experimental results obtained with an example double-star interior PM (IPM) synchronous machine having the sets displaced by 30 electrical degrees. The derived transformation, and consequently, the decoupled d–q machine model, are shown to model the behavior of an actual machine with an acceptable accuracy. Thus, the proposed model is suitable to be used for the model-based control design of electric drives consisting of double-star IPM synchronous machines.

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The objectives of this work were to evaluate the floristic composition and dry biomass of weeds under the canopy of seven perennial species adapted to the Semi-Arid region of Brazil, and correlate these characteristics with growth traits of the perennial species. The following perennial species were evaluated in two experiments (E1 and E2): mesquite (Prosopis juliflora), jucá (Caesalpinia ferrea), white popinac (Leucaena leucocephala), mofumbo (Combretum leprosum), neem (Azadirachata indica), sabiá (Mimosa caesalpiniaefolia) and tamarind (Tamarindus indica). In E1, the seven species were evaluated in a random block design with four replicates and nine plants per plot. In E2, evaluation comprised four species (mesquite, jucá, white popinac, and tamarind) in a random block design with eight replicates and nine plants per plot. A circle with an area of 1.77 m² was established around the trunk of each plant, two years after they were transplanted to the permanent location. The weeds collected within this circle were cut even with the ground, classified and weighed. At this time, plant height, and crown and stem diameters were evaluated in all trees of each plot. In E1 there were no differences between tree species as to weed frequency under their canopies; however, weed growth was smaller under the canopy of sabiá trees. Mesquite and sabiá had the greatest plant height and crown diameter means, but only sabiá had the greatest stem diameter. In E2, the perennial species were not different with regard to weed frequency and growth under their canopies, but mesquite had the greatest growth, as measured by plant height (with significant results for jucá as well) and crown and stem diameter.

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Growing concerns about toxicity and development of resistance against synthetic herbicides have demanded looking for alternative weed management approaches. Allelopathy has gained sufficient support and potential for sustainable weed management. Aqueous extracts of six plant species (sunflower, rice, mulberry, maize, brassica and sorghum) in different combinations alone or in mixture with 75% reduced dose of herbicides were evaluated for two consecutive years under field conditions. A weedy check and S-metolachlor with atrazine (pre emergence) and atrazine alone (post emergence) at recommended rates was included for comparison. Weed dynamics, maize growth indices and yield estimation were done by following standard procedures. All aqueous plant extract combinations suppressed weed growth and biomass. Moreover, the suppressive effect was more pronounced when aqueous plant extracts were supplemented with reduced doses of herbicides. Brassica-sunflower-sorghum combination suppressed weeds by 74-80, 78-70, 65-68% during both years of study that was similar with S-metolachlor along half dose of atrazine and full dose of atrazine alone. Crop growth rate and dry matter accumulation attained peak values of 32.68 and 1,502 g m-2 d-1 for brassica-sunflower-sorghum combination at 60 and 75 days after sowing. Curve fitting regression for growth and yield traits predicted strong positive correlation to grain yield and negative correlation to weed dry biomass under allelopathic weed management in maize crop.

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Studies of plant community dynamics are essential in understanding the demographic patterns of species since changes in demographic rates can affect the floristic composition and future structure. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the changes in the community structure and floristic composition of woody plants in a tropical semi-deciduous forest in Uberlândia in central Brazil, during a 10-years period. The data were collected in 1989 and in 2000 in 50 quadrats (10 m x 10 m) where all trees with a minimum circumference at breast height of 10 cm were sampled. In 1989, 93 species and 1103 individuals were registered. Over a period of 10 years, seven new species were added to the community, although eight disappeared. The main change that occurred during this period in the floristic composition was the replacement of savannah species occurring in forest gaps by those from the forest understory.

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O comportamento fenológico vegetativo e reprodutivo de Jatropha mollissima (Pohl) Baill., Jatropha mutabilis (Pohl) Baill. e Jatropha ribifolia (Pohl) Baill. foi comparado em uma área de caatinga hiperxerófila arbustiva-arbórea do nordeste brasileiro, no período de julho de 2005 a junho de 2007. Adicionalmente, investigou-se a correlação entre as fenofases e as variáveis abióticas (temperatura, umidade relativa, precipitação e fotoperíodo), a capacidade de armazenamento de água e o padrão de distribuição espacial. Todas as espécies apresentaram alta capacidade de armazenamento de água e comportamento fenológico contínuo e irregular com ausência de flores, frutos, queda foliar e brotamento nos meses mais frios e úmidos do ano. Apenas a floração de J. ribifolia apresentou correlação significativa com a precipitação. As três espécies apresentaram populações com distribuição agregada, favorecida principalmente devido ao processo de dispersão de sementes por autocoria. Os resultados obtidos indicam que a alta capacidade de armazenamento de água pelas espécies garante a ocorrência dos eventos fenológicos mesmo na ausência de chuvas.

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(The genus Stachybotrys (anamorphic fungi) in the semi-arid region of Brazil). Stachybotrys is characterized by macronematous, mononematous, unbranched or branched conidiophores, with discrete terminal and phialidic conidiogenous cells, and aseptate, reniform, ellipsoidal to spherical, smooth or verrucose conidia, which are produced in a slimy mass. Eight species have been reported from Brazil, occurring in the soil, air and leaf litter. During investigation of conidial fungi on decaying leaf litter in semi-arid areas of Brazil nine species were found: S. bisbyi (Sriniv.) G.L. Barron, S. chartarum (Ehrenb.) S. Hughes, S. globosa P. C. Misra & S. K. Srivast., S. kampalensis Hansf., S. longispora Matsush., S. nephrospora Hansf., S. nilagirica Subram., Stachybotrys parvispora S. Hughes and S. verrucispora Matsush. Stachybotrys nilagirica is a new record from Brazil. Descriptions, comments, geographic distribution and illustrations are presented for above mentioned species. A key for all species recorded in semi-arid region of Brazil is presented.

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Leaf CO2 assimilation (A) as a function of photosynthetic photon flux density (Q) or intercellular CO2 concentration (Ci) and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements were carried out on four tropical woody species growing in forest gap and understorey (Bauhinia forficata Link. and Guazuma ulmifolia Lam. as pioneers, and Hymenaea courbaril L. and Esenbeckia leiocarpa Engl. as non-pioneers). Chlorophyll fluorescence indicated similar acclimation capacities of photochemical apparatus to contrasting light environments irrespective to plant species. Maximum CO2 assimilation and quantum yield derived from A/Q curves indicated higher photosynthetic capacity in pioneer than in non-pioneer species in forest gap. However, the differences among species did not show a straightforward relation with their successional status regarding data derived from A/Q curves under understorey conditions. Both successional groups are able to sustain positive carbon balance under contrasting natural light availabilities, modifying photochemical and biochemical photosynthetic traits with similar phenotypic plasticity capacity.

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Floristic composition and structure of vegetation were studied in two rocky outcrop areas in the semi-arid region of northeastern Brazil. From April 2007 to September 2008, 18 monthly field trips were carried out. Vascular plants were randomly collected throughout the outcrop areas. For structural analysis, 30 plots of 1 × 1 m were set in the vegetation islands. The checklist presented combines 211 species (69 families and 168 genera), although only 56 species were collected in the plots. Fabaceae (18 spp.; 8.5%), Asteraceae (17 spp.; 8%), Orchidaceae (13 spp.; 6.1%), Euphorbiaceae (13 spp.; 6.1%), Bromeliaceae (10 spp.; 4.7%), and Poaceae (eight spp.; 3.8%) are the richest families. Overall, 1,792 shrub and herbaceous specimens were counted in the plots. The Shannon-Wiener (H) diversity index values were 2.572 and 2.547 nats individual-1. The species that presented the highest absolute abundance values (number of plants) had low frequencies in the plots and vice-versa. The biological spectrum had a high proportion of phanerophytes and therophytes, followed by cryptophytes, chamaephytes, and hemicryptophytes. The studied flora shares floristic components similar to other rocky outcrop areas of the semi-arid region in northeastern Brazil, including in relation to dominant groups in the vegetation structure.

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São apresentados a biologia floral, a dinâmica de produção de néctar, visitantes florais e sistemas reprodutivos de Jatropha ribifolia (Pohl) Baill. (Euphorbiaceae) e uma comparação dos dados obtidos para J. mollissima (Pohl) Baill. e J. mutabilis (Pohl) Baill. O estudo foi desenvolvido em uma área de caatinga hiperxerófila, na Estação Biológica de Canudos, Bahia, Brasil, de maio de 2005 a junho de 2007. As flores das três espécies estão organizadas em dicásios protogínicos. Em J. ribifolia as flores estaminadas e pistiladas duram cerca de 48 horas e a abertura é diurna, enquanto em J. mollissima e J. mutabilis as estaminadas duram entre 12 e 15 horas e as pistiladas entre 36 e 48 horas e a abertura é crepuscular. A produção de néctar, a viabilidade polínica e a receptividade estigmática iniciaram-se logo após a abertura total das flores e se sobrepuseram até sua senescência. A produção de néctar variou ao longo do dia e as flores pistiladas produziram maiores volumes que as estaminadas. A viabilidade polínica e a receptividade estigmática foram observadas nas três espécies durante toda a vida da flor. Houve diferença significativa entre os tratamentos dos sistemas reprodutivos para J. mollissima (KW = 59,796), J. mutabilis (KW = 59,058) e J. ribifolia (KW = 63,660). As três espécies produziram frutos por geitonogamia manual e xenogamia manual e apenas J. ribifolia produziu frutos por geitonogamia espontânea. As abelhas Apis mellifera, Xylocopa frontalis e X. grisescens e os beija-flores Chlorostilbon lucidus e Anopetia gounellei são os polinizadores potenciais de J. mollissima e J. mutabilis. Já para J. ribifolia, os potenciais polinizadores são A. mellifera e X. grisescens. A utilização de uma gama variada de vetores de pólen permite o fluxo polínico e a formação de frutos nas três espécies. Por sua vez, o sequenciamento no período da floração e diferenças nas dimensões das flores e nos horários da antese ajudam a manter o isolamento reprodutivo das três espécies e evitam a perda de pólen interespecífico, que poderia ser alta devido à partilha de alguns dos polinizadores.

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A simple model is proposed, using the method of maximum likelihood to estimate malformation frequencies in racial groups based on data obtained from hospital services. This model uses the proportions of racial admixture, and the observed malformation frequency. It was applied to two defects: postaxial polydactyly and cleft lip, the frequencies of which are recognizedly heterogeneous among racial groups. The frequencies estimated in each racial group were those expected for these malformations, which proves the applicability of the method.

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The use of limiting dilution assay (LDA) for assessing the frequency of responders in a cell population is a method extensively used by immunologists. A series of studies addressing the statistical method of choice in an LDA have been published. However, none of these studies has addressed the point of how many wells should be employed in a given assay. The objective of this study was to demonstrate how a researcher can predict the number of wells that should be employed in order to obtain results with a given accuracy, and, therefore, to help in choosing a better experimental design to fulfill one's expectations. We present the rationale underlying the expected relative error computation based on simple binomial distributions. A series of simulated in machina experiments were performed to test the validity of the a priori computation of expected errors, thus confirming the predictions. The step-by-step procedure of the relative error estimation is given. We also discuss the constraints under which an LDA must be performed.