Variation in the use of chemotherapy in lung cancer

Factors influencing the use of chemotherapy for the initial (6 months) treatment of lung cancer in South East England were investigated. The variables explored as possibly influencing the use of chemotherapy were sex, age, the year of diagnosis, the type of lung cancer, the stage, the index of multiple deprivation and the cancer network of residence. Chi2 analysis and multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the effect of each of the variables on the use of chemotherapy. The results showed a highly significant trend in use of chemotherapy over time; the adjusted proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy increasing from 13.6% in 1994 to 29.3% in 2003. However, age, cancer network and type of lung cancer had the strongest influence on the use of chemotherapy. This finding is important when we consider that the NHS Cancer Plan aims at improving inequalities in cancer care in the UK.

Factors influencing the use of antitumoral chemotherapy in the South East of England

Influences on the use of chemotherapy for the treatment of cancer within the South East region of England for patients diagnosed with colorectal, lung, breast and prostate cancer were investigated. The variables investigated as possibly influencing the selection of chemotherapy were the sex of the patients, their age, the year of diagnosis, the cancer site, the cancer stage, the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) and the cancer network of residence. Logistic regression used to adjust the proportion receiving chemotherapy in relation to other variables considered showed significant differences in the proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy between different cancer sites and different networks. There was also a highly significant trend seen in use of chemotherapy over time; the adjusted proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy increasing from 10.6% in 1993 to 24.3% in 2002. Age, stage and cancer site seemed to have the most influence on the use of chemotherapy.

Providing persuasive feedback through interactive posters to motivate energy-saving behaviours

The behaviour of building occupants can have a significant impact on in-use energy performance. In these pilot studies, based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model, interactivity was incorporated in the design of behavioural interventions to assess its effectiveness in promoting energy-saving behaviours. An interactive poster and an interactive prompt were designed to ‘nudge’ occupants’ behaviours towards energy-saving. The poster was installed in an office building and was intended to encourage occupants to save energy by taking the stairs, rather than the lifts, by providing them with cumulative metaphorical feedback. The prompt was installed in student halls of residence and intended to act as a reminder to the occupants to turn the lights off by providing them with an immediate playful reward. The results showed that interactivity can ‘nudge’ occupants’ behaviours when it is combined with a clear message/feedback. The results also suggest that simple immediate feedback can be effective in encouraging energy-efficient behaviours.

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng g−1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng g−1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g−1. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m−2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m−2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m−2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

Comparisons between EISCAT observations and model calculations of the high latitude ionosphere

Calculations using a numerical model of the convection dominated high latitude ionosphere are compared with observations made by EISCAT as part of the UK-POLAR Special Programme. The data used were for 24–25 October 1984, which was characterized by an unusually steady IMF, with Bz < 0 and By > 0; in the calculations it was assumed that a steady IMF implies steady convection conditions. Using the electric field models of Heppner and Maynard (1983) appropriate to By > 0 and precipitation data taken from Spiroet al. (1982), we calculated the velocities and electron densities appropriate to the EISCAT observations. Many of the general features of the velocity data were reproduced by the model. In particular, the phasing of the change from eastward to westward flow in the vicinity of the Harang discontinuity, flows near the dayside throat and a region of slow flow at higher latitudes near dusk were well reproduced. In the afternoon sector modelled velocity values were significantly less than those observed. Electron density calculations showed good agreement with EISCAT observations near the F-peak, but compared poorly with observations near 211 km. In both cases, the greatest disagreement occurred in the early part of the observations, where the convection pattern was poorly known and showed some evidence of long term temporal change. Possible causes for the disagreement between observations and calculations are discussed and shown to raise interesting and, as yet, unresolved questions concerning the interpretation of the data. For the data set used, the late afternoon dip in electron density observed near the F-peak and interpreted as the signature of the mid-latitude trough is well reproduced by the calculations. Calculations indicate that it does not arise from long residence times of plasma on the nightside, but is the signature of a gap between two major ionization sources, viz. photoionization and particle precipitation.

Using lexical diversity measures to operationalise language dominance in bilinguals

Treffers-Daller and Korybski propose to operationalize language dominance on the basis of measures of lexical diversity, as computed, in this particular study, on transcripts of stories told by Polish-English bilinguals in each of their languages They compute four different Indices of Language Dominance (ILD) on the basis of two different measures of lexical diversity, the Index of Guiraud (Guiraud, 1954) and HD-D (McCarthy & Jarvis, 2007). They compare simple indices, which are based on subtracting scores from one language from scores for another language, to more complex indices based on the formula Birdsong borrowed from the field of handedness, namely the ratio of (Difference in Scores) / (Sum of Scores). Positive scores on each of these Indices of Language Dominance mean that informants are more English-dominant and negative scores that they are more Polish-dominant. The authors address the difficulty of comparing scores across languages by carefully lemmatizing the data. Following Flege, Mackay and Piske (2002) they also look into the validity of these indices by investigating to what extent they can predict scores on other, independently measured variables. They use correlations and regression analysis for this, which has the advantage that the dominance indices are used as continuous variables and arbitrary cut-off points between balanced and dominant bilinguals need not be chosen. However, they also show how the computation of z-scores can help facilitate a discussion about the appropriateness of different cut-off points across different data sets and measurement scales in those cases where researchers consider it necessary to make categorial distinctions between balanced and dominant bilinguals. Treffers-Daller and Korybski correlate the ILD scores with four other variables, namely Length of Residence in the UK, attitudes towards English and life in the UK, frequency of usage of English at home and frequency of code-switching. They found that the indices correlated significantly with most of these variables, but there were clear differences between the Guiraud-based indices and the HDD-based indices. In a regression analysis three of the measures were also found to be a significant predictor of English language usage at home. They conclude that the correlations and the regression analyses lend strong support to the validity of their approach to language dominance.

Metabolic theory predicts whole-ecosystem properties

Understanding the effects of individual organisms on material cycles and energy fluxes within ecosystems is central to predicting the impacts of human-caused changes on climate, land use, and biodiversity. Here we present a theory that integrates metabolic (organism-based bottom-up) and systems (ecosystem-based top-down) approaches to characterize how the metabolism of individuals affects the flows and stores of materials and energy in ecosystems. The theory predicts how the average residence time of carbon molecules, total system throughflow (TST), and amount of recycling vary with the body size and temperature of the organisms and with trophic organization. We evaluate the theory by comparing theoretical predictions with outputs of numerical models designed to simulate diverse ecosystem types and with empirical data for real ecosystems. Although residence times within different ecosystems vary by orders of magnitude—from weeks in warm pelagic oceans with minute phytoplankton producers to centuries in cold forests with large tree producers—as predicted, all ecosystems fall along a single line: residence time increases linearly with slope = 1.0 with the ratio of whole-ecosystem biomass to primary productivity (B/P). TST was affected predominantly by primary productivity and recycling by the transfer of energy from microbial decomposers to animal consumers. The theory provides a robust basis for estimating the flux and storage of energy, carbon, and other materials in terrestrial, marine, and freshwater ecosystems and for quantifying the roles of different kinds of organisms and environments at scales from local ecosystems to the biosphere.

Modelling primary producer interaction and composition: an example of a UK lowland river

Nutrient enrichment and drought conditions are major threats to lowland rivers causing ecosystem degradation and composition changes in plant communities. The controls on primary producer composition in chalk rivers are investigated using a new model and existing data from the River Frome (UK) to explore abiotic and biotic interactions. The growth and interaction of four primary producer functional groups (suspended algae, macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm) were successfully linked with flow, nutrients (N, P), light and water temperature such that the modelled biomass dynamics of the four groups matched that of the observed. Simulated growth of suspended algae was limited mainly by the residence time of the river rather than in-stream phosphorus concentrations. The simulated growth of the fixed vegetation (macrophytes, epiphytes, sediment biofilm) was overwhelmingly controlled by incoming solar radiation and light attenuation in the water column. Nutrients and grazing have little control when compared to the other physical controls in the simulations. A number of environmental threshold values were identified in the model simulations for the different producer types. The simulation results highlighted the importance of the pelagic–benthic interactions within the River Frome and indicated that process interaction defined the behaviour of the primary producers, rather than a single, dominant driver. The model simulations pose interesting questions to be considered in the next iteration of field- and laboratory based studies.

Discourse-sensitive clitic-doubled dislocations in heritage Spanish

This experimental study tests the predictions of the Interface Hypothesis (Sorace, 2011, 2012) using two constructions whose appropriateness depends on monitoring discourse information: Clitic Left Dislocation and Fronted Focus. Clitic Left Dislocation relates a dislocated and clitic-doubled object to an antecedent activated in previous discourse, while Fronted Focus does not relate the fronted constituent to a discourse antecedent. The Interface Hypothesis argues that speakers in language contact situations experience difficulties when they have to integrate syntactic with discourse information. We tested four groups of native speakers on these constructions: Spanish monolinguals, bilinguals with more than 7 years residence in the US, intermediate and advanced proficiency heritage speakers. Our findings suggest that attrition has not set in the adult L2 bilingual speakers, and that the heritage speakers perform similarly to the monolingual and the adult sequential bilingual natives.

Mechanisms underlying temperature extremes in Iberia: a Lagrangian perspective

The mechanisms underlying the occurrence of temperature extremes in Iberia are analysed considering a Lagrangian perspective of the atmospheric flow, using 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the years 1979–2012. Daily 2-m minimum temperatures below the 1st percentile and 2-m maximum temperatures above the 99th percentile at each grid point over Iberia are selected separately for winter and summer. Four categories of extremes are analysed using 10-d backward trajectories initialized at the extreme temperature grid points close to the surface: winter cold (WCE) and warm extremes (WWE), and summer cold (SCE) and warm extremes (SWE). Air masses leading to temperature extremes are first transported from the North Atlantic towards Europe for all categories. While there is a clear relation to large-scale circulation patterns in winter, the Iberian thermal low is important in summer. Along the trajectories, air mass characteristics are significantly modified through adiabatic warming (air parcel descent), upper-air radiative cooling and near-surface warming (surface heat fluxes and radiation). High residence times over continental areas, such as over northern-central Europe for WCE and, to a lesser extent, over Iberia for SWE, significantly enhance these air mass modifications. Near-surface diabatic warming is particularly striking for SWE. WCE and SWE are responsible for the most extreme conditions in a given year. For WWE and SCE, strong temperature advection associated with important meridional air mass transports are the main driving mechanisms, accompanied by comparatively minor changes in the air mass properties. These results permit a better understanding of mechanisms leading to temperature extremes in Iberia.

Kinetics analysis and automated online screening of aminocarbonylation of aryl halides in flow

Temperature, pressure, gas stoichiometry, and residence time were varied to control the yield and product distribution of the palladium-catalyzed aminocarbonylation of aromatic bromides in both a silicon microreactor and a packed-bed tubular reactor. Automation of the system set points and product sampling enabled facile and repeatable reaction analysis with minimal operator supervision. It was observed that the reaction was divided into two temperature regimes. An automated system was used to screen steady-state conditions for offline analysis by gas chromatography to fit a reaction rate model. Additionally, a transient temperature ramp method utilizing online infrared analysis was used, leading to more rapid determination of the reaction activation energy of the lower temperature regimes. The entire reaction spanning both regimes was modeled in good agreement with the experimental data.

Investigation and optimization of parameters affecting the multiply charged ion yield in AP-MALDI MS

Liquid matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) allows the generation of predominantly multiply charged ions in atmospheric pressure (AP) MALDI ion sources for mass spectrometry (MS) analysis. The charge state distribution of the generated ions and the efficiency of the ion source in generating such ions crucially depend on the desolvation regime of the MALDI plume after desorption in the AP-tovacuum inlet. Both high temperature and a flow regime with increased residence time of the desorbed plume in the desolvation region promote the generation of multiply charged ions. Without such measures the application of an electric ion extraction field significantly increases the ion signal intensity of singly charged species while the detection of multiply charged species is less dependent on the extraction field. In general, optimization of high temperature application facilitates the predominant formation and detection of multiply charged compared to singly charged ion species. In this study an experimental setup and optimization strategy is described for liquid AP-MALDI MS which improves the ionization effi- ciency of selected ion species up to 14 times. In combination with ion mobility separation, the method allows the detection of multiply charged peptide and protein ions for analyte solution concentrations as low as 2 fmol/lL (0.5 lL, i.e. 1 fmol, deposited on the target) with very low sample consumption in the low nL-range.

Triple isotope (δD, δ17O, δ18O) study on precipitation, drip water and speleothem fluid inclusions for a central European cave (NW Switzerland)

Deuterium (dD) and oxygen (d18O) isotopes are powerful tracers of the hydrological cycle and have been extensively used for paleoclimate reconstructions as they can provide information on past precipitation, temperature and atmospheric circulation. More recently, the use of 17Oexcess derived from precise measurement of d17O and d18O gives new and additional insights in tracing the hydrological cycle whereas uncertainties surround this proxy. However, 17Oexcess could provide additional information on the atmospheric conditions at the moisture source as well as about fractionations associated with transport and site processes. In this paper we trace water stable isotopes (dD, d17O and d18O) along their path from precipitation to cave drip water and finally to speleothem fluid inclusions for Milandre cave in northwestern Switzerland. A two year-long daily resolved precipitation isotope record close to the cave site is compared to collected cave drip water (3 months average resolution) and fluid inclusions of modern and Holocene stalagmites. Amount weighted mean dD, d18O and d17O are �71.0‰, �9.9‰, �5.2‰ for precipitation, �60.3‰, �8.7‰, �4.6‰ for cave drip water and �61.3‰, �8.3‰, �4.7‰ for recent fluid inclusions respectively. Second order parameters have also been derived in precipitation and drip water and present similar values with 18 per meg for 17Oexcess whereas d-excess is 1.5‰ more negative in drip water. Furthermore, the atmospheric signal is shifted towards enriched values in the drip water and fluid inclusions (D of ~ þ 10‰ for dD). The isotopic composition of cave drip water exhibits a weak seasonal signal which is shifted by around 8e10 months (groundwater residence time) when compared to the precipitation. Moreover, we carried out the first d17O measurement in speleothem fluid inclusions, as well as the first comparison of the d17O behaviour from the meteoric water to the fluid inclusions entrapment in speleothems. This study on precipitation, drip water and fluid inclusions will be used as a speleothem proxy calibration for Milandre cave in order to reconstruct paleotemperatures and moisture source variations for Western Central Europe.

How accurate are volcanic ash simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption?

In the event of a volcanic eruption the decision to close airspace is based on forecast ash maps, produced using volcanic ash transport and dispersion models. In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the spatial skill of volcanic ash simulations using satellite retrievals of ash from the Eyja allajökull eruption during the period from 7 to 16 May 2010. We find that at the start of this period, 7–10 May, the model (FLEXible PARTicle) has excellent skill and can predict the spatial distribution of the satellite-retrieved ash to within 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ latitude/longitude. However, on 10 May there is a decrease in the spatial accuracy of the model to 2.5∘× 2.5∘ latitude/longitude, and between 11 and 12 May the simulated ash location errors grow rapidly. On 11 May ash is located close to a bifurcation point in the atmosphere, resulting in a rapid divergence in the modeled and satellite ash locations. In general, the model skill reduces as the residence time of ash increases. However, the error growth is not always steady. Rapid increases in error growth are linked to key points in the ash trajectories. Ensemble modeling using perturbed meteorological data would help to represent this uncertainty, and assimilation of satellite ash data would help to reduce uncertainty in volcanic ash forecasts.

Post-polio syndrome: epidemiologic and prognostic aspects in Brazil

Objectives - To describe the clinical and epidemiological aspects of post-polio syndrome (PPS) and identify predictors of its severity. Materials and methods - 132 patients with PPS were selected at the Neuromuscular Disease Outpatient Clinic of the Federal University of Sao Paulo. Descriptive analysis was carried out and predictors of PPS severe forms were investigated using an unconditional logistic regression. Results - The average age at onset was 39.4 years. The most common symptoms were fatigue (87.1%), muscle pain (82.4%) and joint pain (72.0%); 50.4% of the cases were severe. The following were associated with PPS severity: a < 4-year period of neurological recovery (OR 2.8), permanent damage in two limbs (OR 3.6) and residence at the time of acute polio in a city with more advanced medical assistance (OR 2.5). Conclusions - Health professionals should carefully evaluate polio survivors for PPS and be aware of the implications of muscle overuse in the neurological recovery period.