Hawtreyan “Credit Deadlock” or Keynesian “Liquidity Trap”? Lessons for Japan from the Great Depression

This paper outlines the ideas of Ralph Hawtrey and Lauchlin Currie on the need for monetised fiscal deficit spending in 1930s USA to combat the deep depression into which the economy had been allowed to sink. In such exceptional circumstances of “credit deadlock” in which banks were afraid to lend and households and business afraid to borrow, the deadlock could best be broken through the spending of new money into circulation via large fiscal deficits. This complementarity of fiscal and monetary policy was shown to be essential, and as such indicates the potential power of monetary policy – in contrast to the Keynesian “liquidity trap” view that it is powerless This lesson was not learned by the Japanese authorities in their response to the asset price collapse of 1991-92, resulting in a lost decade as ballooning fiscal deficits were neutralised throughout the 1990s by unhelpfully tight monetary policy with the Bank of Japan refusing to monetise the deficits.

An interregional input-output analysis of the pollution content of trade flows and environmental trade balances between five states in the US Mid-West

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input-output (MRIO) method in order to enumerate the pollution content of interregional trade flows between five Mid-West regions/states in the US –Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – and the rest of the US. This allows us to analyse some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the US Mid-West and the existence of pollution ‘trade balances’ between states. Our results raise questions in terms of the extent to which authorities at State level can control local emissions where they are limited in the way some emissions can be controlled, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the Mid-West and US. This implies a need for policy co-ordination between national and state level authorities in the US to meet emissions reductions targets. The existence of an environmental trade balances between states also raises issues in terms of net losses/gains in terms of pollutants as a result of interregional trade within the US and whether, if certain activities can be carried out using less polluting technology in one region relative to others, it is better for the US as a whole if this type of relationship exists.

The ghost of past species occurrence: improving species distribution models for presence-only data

1. Model-based approaches have been used increasingly in conservation biology over recent years. Species presence data used for predictive species distribution modelling are abundant in natural history collections, whereas reliable absence data are sparse, most notably for vagrant species such as butterflies and snakes. As predictive methods such as generalized linear models (GLM) require absence data, various strategies have been proposed to select pseudo-absence data. However, only a few studies exist that compare different approaches to generating these pseudo-absence data. 2. Natural history collection data are usually available for long periods of time (decades or even centuries), thus allowing historical considerations. However, this historical dimension has rarely been assessed in studies of species distribution, although there is great potential for understanding current patterns, i.e. the past is the key to the present. 3. We used GLM to model the distributions of three 'target' butterfly species, Melitaea didyma, Coenonympha tullia and Maculinea teleius, in Switzerland. We developed and compared four strategies for defining pools of pseudo-absence data and applied them to natural history collection data from the last 10, 30 and 100 years. Pools included: (i) sites without target species records; (ii) sites where butterfly species other than the target species were present; (iii) sites without butterfly species but with habitat characteristics similar to those required by the target species; and (iv) a combination of the second and third strategies. Models were evaluated and compared by the total deviance explained, the maximized Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). 4. Among the four strategies, model performance was best for strategy 3. Contrary to expectations, strategy 2 resulted in even lower model performance compared with models with pseudo-absence data simulated totally at random (strategy 1). 5. Independent of the strategy model, performance was enhanced when sites with historical species presence data were not considered as pseudo-absence data. Therefore, the combination of strategy 3 with species records from the last 100 years achieved the highest model performance. 6. Synthesis and applications. The protection of suitable habitat for species survival or reintroduction in rapidly changing landscapes is a high priority among conservationists. Model-based approaches offer planning authorities the possibility of delimiting priority areas for species detection or habitat protection. The performance of these models can be enhanced by fitting them with pseudo-absence data relying on large archives of natural history collection species presence data rather than using randomly sampled pseudo-absence data.

A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.

Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

Kangaroo mother care diminishes pain from heel lance in very preterm neonates: a crossover trial.

BACKGROUND: Skin-to-skin contact, or kangaroo mother care (KMC) has been shown to be efficacious in diminishing pain response to heel lance in full term and moderately preterm neonates. The purpose of this study was to determine if KMC would also be efficacious in very preterm neonates. METHODS: Preterm neonates (n = 61) between 28 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks gestational age in three Level III NICU's in Canada comprised the sample. A single-blind randomized crossover design was employed. In the experimental condition, the infant was held in KMC for 15 minutes prior to and throughout heel lance procedure. In the control condition, the infant was in prone position swaddled in a blanket in the incubator. The primary outcome was the Premature Infant Pain Profile (PIPP), which is comprised of three facial actions, maximum heart rate, minimum oxygen saturation levels from baseline in 30-second blocks from heel lance. The secondary outcome was time to recover, defined as heart rate return to baseline. Continuous video, heart rate and oxygen saturation monitoring were recorded with event markers during the procedure and were subsequently analyzed. Repeated measures analysis-of-variance was employed to generate results. RESULTS: PIPP scores at 90 seconds post lance were significantly lower in the KMC condition (8.871 (95%CI 7.852-9.889) versus 10.677 (95%CI 9.563-11.792) p < .001) and non-significant mean differences ranging from 1.2 to1.8. favoring KMC condition at 30, 60 and 120 seconds. Time to recovery was significantly shorter, by a minute(123 seconds (95%CI 103-142) versus 193 seconds (95%CI 158-227). Facial actions were highly significantly lower across all points in time reaching a two-fold difference by 120 seconds post-lance and heart rate was significantly lower across the first 90 seconds in the KMC condition. CONCLUSION: Very preterm neonates appear to have endogenous mechanisms elicited through skin-to-skin maternal contact that decrease pain response, but not as powerfully as in older preterm neonates. The shorter recovery time in KMC is clinically important in helping maintain homeostasis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (Current Controlled Trials) ISRCTN63551708.

MART-1 peptide vaccination plus IMP321 (LAG-3Ig fusion protein) in patients receiving autologous PBMCs after lymphodepletion: results of a Phase I trial.

BACKGROUND: Immunotherapy offers a promising novel approach for the treatment of cancer and both adoptive T-cell transfer and immune modulation lead to regression of advanced melanoma. However, the potential synergy between these two strategies remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated in 12 patients with advanced stage IV melanoma the effect of multiple MART-1 analog peptide vaccinations with (n = 6) or without (n = 6) IMP321 (LAG-3Ig fusion protein) as an adjuvant in combination with lymphodepleting chemotherapy and adoptive transfer of autologous PBMCs at day (D) 0 (Trial registration No: NCT00324623). All patients were selected on the basis of ex vivo detectable MART-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses and immunized at D0, 8, 15, 22, 28, 52, and 74 post-reinfusion. RESULTS: After immunization, a significant expansion of MART-1-specific CD8 T cells was measured in 83% (n = 5/6) and 17% (n = 1/6) of patients from the IMP321 and control groups, respectively (P < 0.02). Compared to the control group, the mean fold increase of MART-1-specific CD8 T cells in the IMP321 group was respectively >2-, >4- and >6-fold higher at D15, D30 and D60 (P < 0.02). Long-lasting MART-1-specific CD8 T-cell responses were significantly associated with IMP321 (P < 0.02). At the peak of the response, MART-1-specific CD8 T cells contained higher proportions of effector (CCR7⁻ CD45RA⁺/⁻) cells in the IMP321 group (P < 0.02) and showed no sign of exhaustion (i.e. were mostly PD1⁻CD160⁻TIM3⁻LAG3⁻2B4⁺/⁻). Moreover, IMP321 was associated with a significantly reduced expansion of regulatory T cells (P < 0.04); consistently, we observed a negative correlation between the relative expansion of MART-1-specific CD8 T cells and of regulatory T cells. Finally, although there were no confirmed responses as per RECIST criteria, a transient, 30-day partial response was observed in a patient from the IMP321 group. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with IMP321 as an adjuvant in combination with lymphodepleting chemotherapy and adoptive transfer of autologous PBMCs induced more robust and durable cellular antitumor immune responses, supporting further development of IMP321 as an adjuvant for future immunotherapeutic strategies.

Realised and Optimal Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated Markov-Switching DSGE Model of the United Kingdom

This paper investigates underlying changes in the UK economy over the past thirtyfive years using a small open economy DSGE model. Using Bayesian analysis, we find UK monetary policy, nominal price rigidity and exogenous shocks, are all subject to regime shifting. A model incorporating these changes is used to estimate the realised monetary policy and derive the optimal monetary policy for the UK. This allows us to assess the effectiveness of the realised policy in terms of stabilising economic fluctuations, and, in turn, provide an indication of whether there is room for monetary authorities to further improve their policies.

Exploring Determinants of Urban Motorcycle Accident Severity: The Case of Barcelona

Public authorities and road users alike are increasingly concerned by recent trends in road safety outcomes in Barcelona, which is the European city with the highest number of registered Powered Two-Wheel (PTW) vehicles per inhabitant,. In this study we explore the determinants of motorcycle and moped accident severity in a large urban area, drawing on Barcelona’s local police database (2002-2008). We apply non-parametric regression techniques to characterize PTW accidents and parametric methods to investigate the factors influencing their severity. Our results show that PTW accident victims are more vulnerable, showing greater degrees of accident severity, than other traffic victims. Speed violations and alcohol consumption provide the worst health outcomes. Demographic and environment-related risk factors, in addition to helmet use, play an important role in determining accident severity. Thus, this study furthers our understanding of the most vulnerable vehicle types, while our results have direct implications for local policy makers in their fight to reduce the severity of PTW accidents in large urban areas.

Discrimination of cortical laminae using MEG.

Typically MEG source reconstruction is used to estimate the distribution of current flow on a single anatomically derived cortical surface model. In this study we use two such models representing superficial and deep cortical laminae. We establish how well we can discriminate between these two different cortical layer models based on the same MEG data in the presence of different levels of co-registration noise, Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and cortical patch size. We demonstrate that it is possible to make a distinction between superficial and deep cortical laminae for levels of co-registration noise of less than 2mm translation and 2° rotation at SNR>11dB. We also show that an incorrect estimate of cortical patch size will tend to bias layer estimates. We then use a 3D printed head-cast (Troebinger et al., 2014) to achieve comparable levels of co-registration noise, in an auditory evoked response paradigm, and show that it is possible to discriminate between these cortical layer models in real data.

Evaluation of prenatal ultrasound diagnosis of fetal abdominal wall defects by 19 European registries.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the current effectiveness of routine prenatal ultrasound screening in detecting gastroschisis and omphalocele in Europe. DESIGN: Data were collected by 19 congenital malformation registries from 11 European countries. The registries used the same epidemiological methodology and registration system. The study period was 30 months (July 1st 1996-December 31st 1998) and the total number of monitored pregnancies was 690,123. RESULTS: The sensitivity of antenatal ultrasound examination in detecting omphalocele was 75% (103/137). The mean gestational age at the first detection of an anomaly was 18 +/- 6.0 gestational weeks. The overall prenatal detection rate for gastroschisis was 83% (88/106) and the mean gestational age at diagnosis was 20 +/- 7.0 gestational weeks. Detection rates varied between registries from 25 to 100% for omphalocele and from 18 to 100% for gastroschisis. Of the 137 cases of omphalocele less than half of the cases were live births (n = 56; 41%). A high number of cases resulted in fetal deaths (n = 30; 22%) and termination of pregnancy (n = 51; 37%). Of the 106 cases of gastroschisis there were 62 (59%) live births, 13 (12%) ended with intrauterine fetal death and 31 (29%) had the pregnancies terminated. CONCLUSIONS: There is significant regional variation in detection rates in Europe reflecting different policies, equipment and the operators' experience. A high proportion of abdominal wall defects is associated with concurrent malformations, syndromes or chromosomal abnormalities, stressing the need for the introduction of repeated detailed ultrasound examination as a standard procedure. There is still a relatively high rate of elective termination of pregnancies for both defects, even in isolated cases which generally have a good prognosis after surgical repair.

Cultura i Societat en la guerra del Francès

Des de que començà aquest projecte, el grup de recerca ha intentat aprofundir el coneixement de la Catalunya de la Guerra del Francès (1808 -1814) a partir d’una òptica britànica. El grup pretenia així desenvolupar la relació que es va establir entre els catalans i els britànics al llarg de tota la guerra, des dels primers contactes permesos per la presència de la flota britànica en la costa catalana fins a la intervenció de forces britàniques en territori català. D’aquesta manera, i primerament, el grup inicià la consulta de les bases de dades i catàlegs catalans i britànics per a completar el nostre llistat de referències arxivístiques i bibliogràfiques. El segon pas van ésser les tres estades d’investigació que entre el 2006 i el 2007 es van fer a Anglaterra, principalment a Londres. La investigació es realitzà a la British Library, al Institute of Historical Research of the School of Advanced Studies de la University of London, al National Maritime Museum i als National Archives of the United Kingdom. A continuació, el grup analitzà la informació recollida de la lectura de fonts primàries i bibliogràfiques en aquests centres de recerca. Finalment, el grup creu que la intensa relació que es va establir entre les dues parts, reflecteix la importància que les autoritats britàniques van donar a Catalunya, i que el seu aïllament amb el centre polític del bàndol patriota va permetre que desenvolupés les seves pròpies dinàmiques i cronologies, encara que s’integraven en el desenvolupament general de la guerra.

Clúster creatius en entorns urbans: 22@Bcn i Shoreditch East London

La localització de les empreses de nova economia en zones urbanes, a pesar que el factor distància no sigui important, no deixa de ser considerable pels seus avantatges que els suposa estar situades conjuntament en relació amb les infraestructures, consum, beneficis socioculturals, i facilitat en les transaccions cara a cara. És inevitable que el primer quart del segle vint-i-un estigui lligat a l’economia creativa de forma similar amb que el començament del segle vint estava íntimament lligat a l’economia industrial i la invenció del sistema de producció en massa. La ciutat també va jugar un dels papers més importants per al desenvolupament de “la nova economia industrial” a les albors del segle vint, com ho és la ciutat del coneixement que acull “la nova economia creativa” al segle vint-i-un. És evident que els resultats morfològics, socials, econòmics i urbans són ben diferents en ambdós fenòmens, però l’impacte a les ciutats és molt gran. L’objectiu d’aquest estudi és analitzar els mecanismes d’aglomeració (clustering) d’activitats competitives basades en creació de coneixement i de serveis avançats que estan al darrera de desenvolupaments punters a ciutats com Barcelona, el projecte 22@bcn, i East London, el projecte Shoreditch. L’esforç que han posat les autoritats locals en crear l’entorn apropiat per atreure i crear empreses innovadores, com a motor de desenvolupament d’algunes ciutats modernes europees ha resultat en el sorgiment de nuclis o centres urbans molt dinàmics que suposadament estan preparats i acullen punts de creació de coneixement (“Urban Knowledge Hubs”), amb una demanda i llocs de treball altament qualificats. Aquest és el cas dels projectes de Barcelona (22@bcn) i East London (Shoreditch).

Partner Selection into Policy Relevant Field Experiments

This study investigates the issue of self-selection of stakeholders into participation and collaboration in policy-relevant experiments. We document and test the implications of self-selection in the context of randomised policy experiment we conducted in primary schools in the UK. The main questions we ask are (1) is there evidence of selection on key observable characteristics likely to matter for the outcome of interest and (2) does selection matter for the estimates of treatment eff ects. The experimental work consists in testing the e ffects of an intervention aimed at encouraging children to make more healthy choices at lunch. We recruited schools through local authorities and randomised schools across two incentive treatments and a control group. We document the selection taking place both at the level of local authorities and at the school level. Overall we nd mild evidence of selection on key observables such as obesity levels and socio-economic characteristics. We find evidence of selection along indicators of involvement in healthy lifestyle programmes at the school level, but the magnitude is small. Moreover, We do not find signifi cant di erences in the treatment e ffects of the experiment between variables which, albeit to a mild degree, are correlated with selection into the experiment. To our knowledge, this is the rst study providing direct evidence on the magnitude of self-selection in fi eld experiments.

Legal Uncertainty, Competition Law Enforcement Procedures and Optimal Penalties

In this paper we make three contributions to the literature on optimal Competition Law enforcement procedures. The first (which is of general interest beyond competition policy) is to clarify the concept of “legal uncertainty”, relating it to ideas in the literature on Law and Economics, but formalising the concept through various information structures which specify the probability that each firm attaches – at the time it takes an action – to the possibility of its being deemed anti-competitive were it to be investigated by a Competition Authority. We show that the existence of Type I and Type II decision errors by competition authorities is neither necessary nor sufficient for the existence of legal uncertainty, and that information structures with legal uncertainty can generate higher welfare than information structures with legal certainty – a result echoing a similar finding obtained in a completely different context and under different assumptions in earlier Law and Economics literature (Kaplow and Shavell, 1992). Our second contribution is to revisit and significantly generalise the analysis in our previous paper, Katsoulacos and Ulph (2009), involving a welfare comparison of Per Se and Effects- Based legal standards. In that analysis we considered just a single information structure under an Effects-Based standard and also penalties were exogenously fixed. Here we allow for (a) different information structures under an Effects-Based standard and (b) endogenous penalties. We obtain two main results: (i) considering all information structures a Per Se standard is never better than an Effects-Based standard; (ii) optimal penalties may be higher when there is legal uncertainty than when there is no legal uncertainty.