Understanding cange in residential property markets: Mapping residency of employment data

The changing nature of residential housing markets is due to a large number of influences, although some have a larger effect than others do on house values. Whilst it is extremely difficult to completely disaggregate all influencing factors, it is possible to highlight areas that have a strong relationship with property – one of these is residency of employment. This research investigates these links between residential housing markets as measured by the level of house prices and residency of employment as measured by industry sector employment. It focuses on Local Government Areas in the State of Victoria, Australia and examines change over a ten year period between 1991 and 2001 using census and house price information. It is supported by data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Victorian Government’s Valuer General’s Office. The analysis also considers changes in these employment sectors from Australia’s overall perspective, as well as comparison with changes in Victoria’s overall residency of employment trends. It is assisted by a spatial representation of three 'shift-share' components and property values with the support of a geographical information system (GIS).

The valuation of fast-food outlets : analysis, methodology, and reliability

Fast-food outlets are a significant subsector of the hospitality and tourism property market in Australia, and have experienced significant growth and global change in the past 20 years. However, little attention has been given in professional and academic literature to the valuation methodology and analysis of these properties. This article proposes a working definition of a fast-food outlet, traces recent changes in the structure of the fast-food industry, investigates the major determinants of value with respect to asset value, and examines to what extent these have changed. In particular, it isolates the role of goodwill in assessing going-concern value.

The valuation of self-funded retirement villages in Australia

Changing demographics will see an increasing demand for self-funded sector retirement villages in Australia. As such, valuers can expect to be more involved in providing valuation advice in this sector, although the central issue remains that retirement villages are complex businesses. They have been described as management intensive operating businesses with a substantial real estate element. As a result the valuation process in this sector requires a different type of analysis, in comparison to the traditional real estate based investment.
This paper provides an analysis of recent trends in the demand for retirement villages and examine current practise with respect to valuation thereof. It emphasises the need for a greater awareness of the ‘business enterprise value’ component and provides a framework within which the components of value can be better understood. The purpose of the paper is to provide a foundation for a greater reliability with respect to valuation advice.

Downside systematic risk in Australian listed property trusts

Previous studies on systematic risk have demonstrated the link between financial and management structure determinants and systematic risk. However, systematic risk is estimated by assuming return is normally distributed. This assumption is generally rejected for real estate returns. Therefore, downside systematic risk appears as a more sensible risk measure in estimating market-related risk. This study contributes to this body of knowledge by examining the determinants of downside systematic risk in Australian Listed Property Trusts (LPTs) over 1993-2005. The results reveal that systematic risk and downside systematic risk are empirically distinguishable. More specifically, there is limited evidence on the connection between these financial and management structure determinants and systematic risk. However, downside systematic risk is sensitive to leverage and management structure.

An exploration of the relationship between size and risk in a downside risk framework applied to Malaysian property shares

The relationship between size and risk (systematic and unsystematic risk) has received considerable attention in recent literature. However, these studies employ variance as the risk measure, which the appropriateness for using this risk measure is always questioned by researchers and practitioners due to its underlying strict assumptions. Therefore, there is crucial to adopt an alternative risk measure for ascertaining the relationships. The aim of the study is to examine the relationships between size and systematic downside risk and unsystematic downside risk in line with the theoretical sound of this risk measure. The empirical evidences reveal that the size is strongly correlated with unsystematic downside risk. While, there is a weak inverse relationship between size and systematic downside risk.

The relationship between sustainability and the value of office buildings

There is an increasing body of evidence to suggest that the development of sustainability in office buildings and the acceptance of these buildings in the broader property market is increasing. However a gap still remains between the value of sustainability and the value of the building from an International Valuation Standards Committee (IVSC) definition of market value. Current literature is limited in the investigation of the impact of sustainable criteria on value component when undertaking a valuation of a commercial office building. Whilst substantial advances have been made in sustainable design and construction aspects, as well as reducing implementation costs and enhancing benefits associated with sustainability, there appears to be inherent barriers in adopting sustainability in the valuation process for the property industry.

This paper examines the limited previous research into the elements of sustainable criteria that impact upon property value, and in turn should be reflected in traditional valuation methods. The immaturity of the property market for sustainable building is such that current valuation methods do not appear to have significant evidential proof of increased property value through sales or lease evidence for sustainable buildings. Furthermore, this lack of market evidence makes it inherently difficult for valuers to assess the real market value of sustainable buildings through current valuation methodology. In other words, the level of risk associated with incorporating different levels of sustainability into office buildings appears difficult to measure using a market value perspective in today’s property market. Accordingly this paper examines current research that has been undertaken to identify particular sustainable criteria that potentially affects the value of a sustainable building. For example, previous research suggests that sustainable criteria impact upon the valuation equation through rental growth, depreciation, risk premium and cash flow. This paper also examines how other studies have viewed the impact of sustainable criteria and how they are weighted within the valuation equation. The discussion provides an insight into the rapidly evolving area of sustainability and office buildings with emphasis placed on the valuation process that seeks to assess a hypothetical purchaser’s perspective of this relationship.

Understanding residential house prices : examining the contribution of social area analysis

A complete understanding of residential housing markets, particularly in relation to variations in house prices both within and between suburbs, continues to present challenges to property researchers and forecasters. Factors affecting changes in housing demand are not yet completely understood, and accordingly market changes cannot always be confidently predicted. Most urban cities contain precincts that have high or low house values at the same time, regardless of characteristics such as distance to the city centre, location of transport or topography. Exactly why these variations in suburb values occur is often unclear, although local residents are able to easily identify differences between the status of each suburb, especially when one area is clearly perceived as superior to another. Consequently, houses in premium suburbs are sold for substantially more than houses in other areas, primarily due to this perceived higher demand. An understanding of reasons behind varying levels of buyer demand has always been difficult to fully encapsulate in housing studies, even though clear links have been observed between housing affordability and the type of inhabitant that would live in a particular area. This study confirms that traditional economic indicators can not always observe the degree of purchaser and vendor willingness in the residential property market, as per the International Valuation Standards Committee definition of market value, and substantial consideration must also be given to characteristics of individual buyers and sellers within the marketplace. No longer can the focus be narrowly focussed just on endogenous factors such as interest rates and inflation levels.
Accordingly, this research draws the disciplines of demography and housing research closer together and looks to social indicators for an insight into the level of house prices. To establish this link, a two-stage process is adopted where social area analysis initially identifies the characteristics of suburbs within an urban area. This information is then used to examine variations in suburb values, resulting in a clearer understanding of the relationship between demographic variables and house prices. This research analysed changes in the value of established residential house prices in Melbourne, Australia as well as the relationship with social structure. The added dimension of time highlighted change, with data drawn from 1996 and 2001. The results confirmed the existence of strong linkages between social constructs and established house prices. Whilst acknowledging that the overall level of house values is influenced by external economic and political factors, differences between suburb values can be explained by demographic variables. The results confirm that increased emphasis must be placed upon demography when seeking to understand variations in residential property values between urban areas.

Identifying linkages between generations and community development: the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important, they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually provide the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation shift had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X, Y and Z.

This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in a range of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends. The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

Investigating residential property markets using employment data

The changing nature of residential housing markets is due to a large number of influences, although some factors have a larger effect than others on house values. Whilst it is extremely difficult to completely disaggregate all influencing factors, it is possible to highlight areas that have a strong relationship with property – one of these is employment. Due to the growing importance between housing affordability and the capacity to meet the cost of living the form of regular mortgage repayments or rent, there are clear links between the cost of housing and the ability to pay for the housing product.

The research investigates the links between residential housing markets as measured by the level of house prices and employment as measured by industry sector employment. It focuses on Local Government Areas in the State of Victoria, Australia and examines change over a ten year period between 1991 and 2001 using census and house price information. It is supported by data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Victorian Government’s Valuer General’s Office. The analysis also considers changes in these employment sectors from Australia’s overall perspective, as well as comparison with changes in Victoria’s overall employment trends. It is assisted by a spatial representation of three shiftshare components and property values with the assistance of a geographical information system (GIS).

The Melbourne 2006 Commonwealth Games : what does it mean for the local property market?

In 2006 Melbourne will host the 18th Commonwealth Games with Brisbane being the last Australian city to host this event over two decades ago in 1982. Melbourne has not held a major global sporting event since the 1956 Olympic Games, although the 2006 Commonwealth Games follows on from the successful 2000 Sydney Olympics. These sporting events have continued to grow from strength to strength, and have been assisted by Australia's close affiliation with sport and the widespread global media coverage. In a similar manner to other sporting events that Melbourne hosts, including the Australian Tennis Open, Formula One Grand Prix, Motorcycle Grand Prix, Melbourne Cup and Australian Football League, the city and its inhabitants are consumed by these events. The 2006 Commonwealth Games is certain to follow this trend.
The task of hosting the Commonwealth Games is enormous, although actively pursued in a fierce bidding process by competing cities. The benefits are undisputed and include an influx of visitors to the host city, an opportunity to enhance or rebuild infrastructure such as transport, plus the worldwide focus on the host city before and during the event. A high level of planning is undertaken for years well in advance of the event, and this may have an effect on the surrounding property market. Through the media both buyers and sellers are constantly reminded of the upcoming Games, the venues and the increased demand that will occur. Accordingly, this research investigates the task of hosting a major global sporting event such as the Commonwealth Games, and importantly how affects infrastructure in a host city. Attention is placed on the 2006 Commonwealth Games and the Melbourne property market. Whilst every host city differs in characteristics such as size, location and timing of the event, the findings of this study will assist a future host city to plan for the highly irregular circumstances that accompany a high profile one-off major sporting event.

Property transactions : a note on ethics

Some activities that are applied in the property market to facilitate transactions have the potential to lead to unethical behaviour. Two conditions required for a sale price to be acceptable as market value are that the transaction is at arm’s length and the parties to the transaction are knowledgeable and prudent. The well-known difficulties associated with access to market pricing information are exacerbated by several of these activities including dummy bidding at auctions, two-tier marketing and the provision of lease incentives. Added to these is a common requirement that any negotiation be commercial-in-confidence. The lack of information has the potential to distort the market and this has been well publicised in recent times particularly in the residential market.
The definition of market value is visited and the nature of ethics in property transactions is outlined. Several examples of activities that could lead to unethical behaviour are described. It is concluded that unethical behaviour is hard to identify. Some recommendations are included for consideration and discussion.

The relevance of professional institutions to students and early career practitioners in the property and construction industries within Australia

The role of professional institutions and the transition from student membership to full professional membership among real estate and construction students in Australia is examined. Students’ perceptions of professional qualifications and institution membership is explored to show that graduates seek networking and career advancement opportunities over professional training and development opportunities. The expectation of many young practitioners is that they will work outside Australia during their career and this has significant implications for the future policy development of professional bodies. The paper provides a valuable insight into the aspirations of young professionals and goes some way to identifying the reasons for the low level of transition from student membership to full membership of the national and international professional bodies.