Adjusted jackknife for imputation under unequal probability sampling without replacement

Imputation is commonly used to compensate for item non-response in sample surveys. If we treat the imputed values as if they are true values, and then compute the variance estimates by using standard methods, such as the jackknife, we can seriously underestimate the true variances. We propose a modified jackknife variance estimator which is defined for any without-replacement unequal probability sampling design in the presence of imputation and non-negligible sampling fraction. Mean, ratio and random-imputation methods will be considered. The practical advantage of the method proposed is its breadth of applicability.

Using phylogeny to investigate the origins of the Cape flora: the importance of taxonomic, gene and genome sampling strategies

Phylogenetic methods hold great promise for the reconstruction of the transition from precursor to modern flora and the identification of underlying factors which drive the process. The phylogenetic methods presently used to address the question of the origin of the Cape flora of South Africa are considered here. The sampling requirements of each of these methods, which include dating of diversifications using calibrated molecular trees, sister pair comparisons, lineage through time plots and biogeographical optimizations are reviewed. Sampling of genes, genomes and species are considered. Although increased higher-level studies and increased sampling are required for robust interpretation, it is clear that much progress is already made. It is argued that despite the remarkable richness of the flora, the Cape flora is a valuable model system to demonstrate the utility of phylogenetic methods in determining the history of a modern flora.

The significance of "nonsignificance" in randomized controlled studies: a discussion inspired by a double-blinded study on St. John's Wort (Hypericum perforatum L.) for premenstrual symptoms

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of St. John's wort extract (SJW) as a treatment for premenstrual symptoms. Design: The study was a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, with two parallel treatment groups. After a no-treatment baseline cycle, volunteers were randomized to either SJW or placebo for a further two menstrual cycles. Settings/location: A postal trial conducted from The University of Reading, Berkshire, England. Subjects: One hundred and sixty-nine (169) normally menstruating women who experienced recurrent premenstrual symptoms were recruited onto the study. One hundred and twenty-five (125) completed the protocol and were included in the analysis. Interventions: Six hundred milligrams (600) mg of SJW (standardized to contain 1800 mug of hypericin) or placebo (containing lactose and cellulose). Outcome measure: A menstrual diary was used to assess changes in premenstrual symptoms. The anxiety-related subgroup of symptoms of this instrument was used as the primary outcome measure. Results: After averaging the effects of treatment over both treatment cycles it was found that there was a trend for SJW to be superior to placebo. However, this finding was not statistically significant. Conclusion: The possibility that this nonsignificant finding resulted from insufficient statistical power in the study, rather than a lack of efficacy of SJW, is discussed. Following this discussion the recommendation is made that, in future, similar studies should be powered to detect a minimum clinically relevant difference between treatments.

Bayesian estimation of ancestral character states on phylogenies

Biologists frequently attempt to infer the character states at ancestral nodes of a phylogeny from the distribution of traits observed in contemporary organisms. Because phylogenies are normally inferences from data, it is desirable to account for the uncertainty in estimates of the tree and its branch lengths when making inferences about ancestral states or other comparative parameters. Here we present a general Bayesian approach for testing comparative hypotheses across statistically justified samples of phylogenies, focusing on the specific issue of reconstructing ancestral states. The method uses Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for sampling phylogenetic trees and for investigating the parameters of a statistical model of trait evolution. We describe how to combine information about the uncertainty of the phylogeny with uncertainty in the estimate of the ancestral state. Our approach does not constrain the sample of trees only to those that contain the ancestral node or nodes of interest, and we show how to reconstruct ancestral states of uncertain nodes using a most-recent-common-ancestor approach. We illustrate the methods with data on ribonuclease evolution in the Artiodactyla. Software implementing the methods ( BayesMultiState) is available from the authors.

Biomechanics of a branch-stem junction in softwood

Direct measurement of strain field in a mechanically loaded Norway spruce branch-stem junction was performed by means of electronic speckle pattern analysis. Results were compared with strain distribution in a polyester cast of identical shape as the branch-stem junction, and a simplified polyester model consisting of two half-cylinders. Compared to polyester models, the branch-stem junction was characterised by a very homogeneous distribution of strain, which can be interpreted as a homogeneous distribution of stress in terms of fraction of material strength. This optimised transfer of mechanical load from the branch to the stem is achieved by a combination of naturally optimised shape with, additionally, optimised mechanical wood properties in the junction area.

Flavonoids and cognitive function: a review of human randomized controlled trial studies and recommendations for future studies

Evidence in support of the neuroprotective effects of flavonoids has increased significantly in recent years, although to date much of this evidence has emerged from animal rather than human studies. Nonetheless, with a view to making recommendations for future good practice, we review 15 existing human dietary intervention studies that have examined the effects of particular types of flavonoid on cognitive performance. The studies employed a total of 55 different cognitive tests covering a broad range of cognitive domains. Most studies incorporated at least one measure of executive function/working memory, with nine reporting significant improvements in performance as a function of flavonoid supplementation compared to a control group. However, some domains were overlooked completely (e.g. implicit memory, prospective memory), and for the most part there was little consistency in terms of the particular cognitive tests used making across study comparisons difficult. Furthermore, there was some confusion concerning what aspects of cognitive function particular tests were actually measuring. Overall, while initial results are encouraging, future studies need to pay careful attention when selecting cognitive measures, especially in terms of ensuring that tasks are actually sensitive enough to detect treatment effects.

The significance of "nonsignificance" in randomized controlled studies: a discussion inspired by a double-blinded study on St. John's Wort (Hypericum perforatum L.) for premenstrual symptoms

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of St. John's wort extract (SJW) as a treatment for premenstrual symptoms. Design: The study was a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, with two parallel treatment groups. After a no-treatment baseline cycle, volunteers were randomized to either SJW or placebo for a further two menstrual cycles. Settings/location: A postal trial conducted from The University of Reading, Berkshire, England. Subjects: One hundred and sixty-nine (169) normally menstruating women who experienced recurrent premenstrual symptoms were recruited onto the study. One hundred and twenty-five (125) completed the protocol and were included in the analysis. Interventions: Six hundred milligrams (600) mg of SJW (standardized to contain 1800 mug of hypericin) or placebo (containing lactose and cellulose). Outcome measure: A menstrual diary was used to assess changes in premenstrual symptoms. The anxiety-related subgroup of symptoms of this instrument was used as the primary outcome measure. Results: After averaging the effects of treatment over both treatment cycles it was found that there was a trend for SJW to be superior to placebo. However, this finding was not statistically significant. Conclusion: The possibility that this nonsignificant finding resulted from insufficient statistical power in the study, rather than a lack of efficacy of SJW, is discussed. Following this discussion the recommendation is made that, in future, similar studies should be powered to detect a minimum clinically relevant difference between treatments.

Prebiotic evaluation of a novel galactooligosaccharide mixture produced by the enzymatic activity of Bifidobacterium bifidum NCIMB 41171, in healthy humans: a randomized, double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled intervention study

Background: Galactooligosaccharides are selectively fermented by the beneficial member of the colonic microflora contributing to the health of the host. Objective: We assessed the prebiotic potential of a novel galactooligosaccharide produced through the action of beta-galactosidases, originating from a probiotic Bifidobacterium bifidum strain, against a galactooligosaccharide produced through the action of an industrial P-galactosidase and a placebo. Design: Fifty-nine healthy human volunteers participated in this study. Initially, the effect of the matrix on the prebiotic properties of a commercially available galactooligosaccharide (7 g/d) was assessed during 7-d treatment periods with a 7-d washout period in between. During the second phase, 30 volunteers were assigned to a sequence of treatments (7 d) differing in the amount of the novel galactooligosaccharide (0, 3.6, or 7 g/d). Stools were recovered before and after each intervention, and bacteria numbers were determined by fluorescent in situ hybridization. Results: Addition of the novel galactooligosaccharide mixture significantly increased the bifidobacterial population ratio compared with the placebo (P < 0.05), whereas 7 g/d of the novel galactooligosaccharide significantly increased the bifidobacterial ratio compared with the commercial galactooligosaccharide (P < 0.05). Moreover, a significant relation (P < 0.001) between the bifidobacteria proportion and the novel galactooligosaccharide dose (0, 3.6, and 7 g/d) was observed. This relation was similar to the effect of the novel galactooligosaccharide on the prebiotic index of each dose. Conclusions: This study showed that galactooligosaccharide mixtures produced with different beta-galactosidases show different prebiotic properties and that, by using enzymes originating from bifidobacterial species, an increase in the bifidogenic properties of the prebiotic product is achievable.

A double-blind, randomized, controlled crossover trial of glutamine supplementation in home parenteral nutrition

Objective: Studies suggest clinical benefit of glutamine-supplemented parenteral nutrition. The aim was to determine if the inclusion of 10 g of glutamine as part of the nitrogen source of home parenteral nutrition (HPN) reduces infectious complications. Subjects/Methods: Thirty-five patients on HPN were recruited and 22 completed the study. Patients were randomized to receive either standard HPN or glutamine-supplemented HPN. Patients were assessed at randomization, 3 and 6 months later then they were crossed over to the alternative HPN and reassessed at 3 and 6 months. Assessments included plasma amino acid concentrations, intestinal permeability and absorption, nutritional status, oral and parenteral intake, quality of life, routine biochemistry and haematology. Results: No difference was seen between the groups at randomization. No difference was detected between the treatment phases for infective complications (55% in the standard treatment phase and 36% in the glutamine-supplemented phase P 0.67). There were no differences in nutritional status, intestinal permeability, plasma glutamine concentrations or quality of life. Conclusion: Although limited by the sample size, the study has shown that glutamine as part of the nitrogen source of parenteral nutrition can be given to patients on HPN for 6 months without any adverse effects.

Artichoke leaf extract (Cynara scolymus) reduces plasma cholesterol in otherwise healthy hypercholesterolemic adults: A randomized, double blind placebo controlled trial

Cardiovascular diseases are the chief causes of death in the UK, and are associated with high circulating levels of total cholesterol in the plasma. Artichoke leaf extracts (ALEs) have been reported to reduce plasma lipids levels, including total cholesterol, although high quality data is lacking. The objective of this trial was to assess the effect of ALE on plasma lipid levels and general well-being in otherwise healthy adults with mild to moderate hypercholesterolemia. 131 adults were screened for total plasma cholesterol in the range 6.0-8.0 mmol/l, with 75 suitable volunteers randomised onto the trial. Volunteers consumed 1280 mg of a standardised ALE, or matched placebo, daily for 12 weeks. Plasma total cholesterol decreased in the treatment group by an average of 4.2% (from 7.16 (SD 0.62) mmol/l to 6.86 (SD 0.68) mmol/l) and increased in the control group by an average of 1.9% (6.90 (SD 0.49) mmol/l to 7.03 (0.61) mmol/l), the difference between groups being statistically significant (p = 0.025). No significant differences between groups were observed for LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol or triglyceride levels. General well-being improved significantly in both the treatment (11%) and control groups (9%) with no significant differences between groups. In conclusion, ALE consumption resulted in a modest but favourable statistically significant difference in total cholesterol after 12 weeks. In comparison with a previous trial, it is suggested that the apparent positive health status of the study population may have contributed to the modesty of the observed response. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Bromelain as an adjunctive treatment for moderate-to-severe osteoarthritis of the knee: a randomized placebo-controlled pilot study

Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee is the most prevalent joint disorder. Previous studies suggest that bromelain, a pineapple extract, may be a safer alternative/adjunctive treatment for knee OA than current conventional treatment. Aim: To assess the efficacy of bromelain in treating OA of the knee. Design: Randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial. Methods: Subjects (n=47) with a confirmed diagnosis of moderate to severe knee OA were randomized to 12 weeks of bromelain 800 mg/day or placebo, with a 4-week follow-up. Knee (pain, stiffness and function) and quality-of-life symptoms were reported monthly in the WOMAC and SF36 questionnaires, respectively. Adverse events were also recorded. The primary outcome measure was the change in total WOMAC score from baseline to the end of treatment at week 12. Longitudinal models were used to evaluate outcome. Results: Thirty-one patients completed the trial (14 bromelain, 17 placebo). No statistically significant differences were observed between groups for the primary outcome (coefficient 11.16, p=0.27, 95%CI-8.86 to 31.18), nor the WOMAC subscales or SF36. Both treatment groups showed clinically relevant improvement in the WOMAC disability subscale only. Adverse events were generally mild in nature. Discussion: This study suggests that bromelain is not efficacious as an adjunctive treatment of moderate to severe OA, but its limitations support the need for a follow-up study.

Can a short period of micronutrient supplementation in older institutionalized people improve response to influenza vaccine? A randomized, controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that a micronutrient supplement can improve seroconversion after influenza immunization in older institutionalized people. DESIGN: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. SETTING: Nursing and residential homes in Liverpool, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred sixty-four residents aged 60 and older from 31 homes were initially randomized; of these, 119 (72.6%) completed the study. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomized to receive a micronutrient supplement providing the reference nutrient intake for all vitamins and trace elements or identical placebo. Tablets were taken over an 8-week period during September and October 2000; influenza vaccine was administered 4 weeks after their commencement. MEASUREMENTS: The hemagglutination-inhibiting antibody response as defined by a fourfold or greater titer rise over 4 weeks and assessed separately for each of the three antigens contained in the 2000/2001 influenza vaccine (A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1), A/Moscow/10/99 (H3N2), B/Beijing/184/93 (B)). RESULTS: Despite a significant increase in serum concentrations of vitamins A, C, D-3, E, folate, and selenium in the supplemented group, there was no significant difference between groups (supplemented vs placebo, respectively) in the proportion of participants seroconverting to H1N1 (41% vs 49%, P=.374), H3N2 (49% vs 58%, P=.343), or B (41% vs 40%, P=.944). CONCLUSION: A micronutrient supplement providing the reference nutrient intake administered over 8 weeks had no beneficial effect on antibody response to influenza vaccine in older people living in long-term care.

Attitudes of rural branch managers in Madhya Pradesh, India, toward their role as providers of financial services to the poor

Discussions on banking reforms to reduce financial exclusion have referred little to possible attitudinal constraints, on the part of staff at both branch and institutional levels, inhibiting the provision of financial services to the poor. The research project, funded by the ESCOR (now Social Science Research) Small Grants Committee, has focused on this aspect of financial exclusion. The research commenced in May 2001 and was completed in April 2002. Profiles of the rural bank branch managers, including personal background, professional background and workplace, are presented. Attitudes of managers toward aspects of their work environment and the rural poor are examined, using results from both quantitative and qualitative analysis. Finally, the emerging policy implications are discussed. These include bank reforms to address human resource management, the work environment, intermediate bank management and organization, and the client interface.

A new organization for a perceptron-based branch predictor and its FPGA implementation

An unaltered rearrangement of the original computation of a neural based predictor at the algorithmic level is introduced as a new organization. Its FPGA implementation generates circuits that are 1.7 faster than a direct implementation of the original algorithm. This faster clock rate allows to implement predictors with longer history lengths using the nearly the same hardware budget.

FPGA organization for the fast path-based neural branch predictor

This paper develops cycle-level FPGA circuits of an organization for a fast path-based neural branch predictor Our results suggest that practical sizes of prediction tables are limited to around 32 KB to 64 KB in current FPGA technology due mainly to FPGA area of logic resources to maintain the tables. However the predictor scales well in terms of prediction speed. Table sizes alone should not be used as the only metric for hardware budget when comparing neural-based predictor to predictors of totally different organizations. This paper also gives early evidence to shift the attention on to the recovery from mis-prediction latency rather than on prediction latency as the most critical factor impacting accuracy of predictions for this class of branch predictors.