A nonparametric method of comparing the partial areas under two correlated receiver operating characteristic curves

A non-parametric method was developed and tested to compare the partial areas under two correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. Based on the theory of generalized U-statistics the mathematical formulas have been derived for computing ROC area, and the variance and covariance between the portions of two ROC curves. A practical SAS application also has been developed to facilitate the calculations. The accuracy of the non-parametric method was evaluated by comparing it to other methods. By applying our method to the data from a published ROC analysis of CT image, our results are very close to theirs. A hypothetical example was used to demonstrate the effects of two crossed ROC curves. The two ROC areas are the same. However each portion of the area between two ROC curves were found to be significantly different by the partial ROC curve analysis. For computation of ROC curves with large scales, such as a logistic regression model, we applied our method to the breast cancer study with Medicare claims data. It yielded the same ROC area computation as the SAS Logistic procedure. Our method also provides an alternative to the global summary of ROC area comparison by directly comparing the true-positive rates for two regression models and by determining the range of false-positive values where the models differ. ^

A longitudinal comparison of cardiovascular disease risk factors among children and adolescents in the U.S. and Japan: Project HeartBeat!

Blood cholesterol and blood pressure development in childhood and adolescence have important impact on the future adult level of cholesterol and blood pressure, and on increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. The U.S. has higher mortality rates of coronary heart diseases than Japan. A longitudinal comparison in children of risk factor development in the two countries provides more understanding about the causes of cardiovascular disease and its prevention. Such comparisons have not been reported in the past. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 506 non-Hispanic white, 136 black and 369 Japanese children participated in the study in the U.S. and Japan from 1991 to 1995. A synthetic cohort of ages 8 to 18 years was composed by three cohorts with starting ages at 8, 11, and 14. A multilevel regression model was used for data analysis. ^ The study revealed that the Japanese children had significantly higher slopes of mean total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels than the U.S. children after adjusting for age and sex. The mean TC level of Japanese children was not significantly different from white and black children. The mean HDL level of Japanese children was significantly higher than white and black children after adjusting for age and sex. The ratio of HDL/TC in Japanese children was significantly higher than in U.S. whites, but not significantly different from the black children. The Japanese group had significantly lower mean diastolic blood pressure phase IV (DBP4) and phase V (DBP5) than the two U.S. groups. The Japanese group also showed significantly higher slopes in systolic blood pressure, DBP5 and DBP4 during the study period than both U.S. groups. The differences were independent from height and body mass index. ^ The study provided the first longitudinal comparison of blood cholesterol and blood pressure between the U.S. and Japanese children and adolescents. It revealed the dynamic process of these factors in the three ethnic groups. ^

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OBESITY AND PSYCHOLOGICAL GENERAL WELL-BEING IN UNITED STATES WOMEN

While clinical studies have shown a negative relationship between obesity and mental health in women, population studies have not shown a consistent association. However, many of these studies can be criticized regarding fatness level criteria, lack of control variables, and validity of the psychological variables.^ The purpose of this research was to elucidate the relationship between fatness level and mental health in United States women using data from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I), which was conducted on a national probability sample from 1971 to 1974. Mental health was measured by the General Well-Being Schedule (GWB), and fatness level was determined by the sum of the triceps and subscapular skinfolds. Women were categorized as lean (15th percentile or less), normal (16th to 84th percentiles), or obese (85th percentile or greater).^ A conceptual framework was developed which identified the variables of age, race, marital status, socioeconomic status (education), employment status, number of births, physical health, weight history, and perception of body image as important to the fatness level-GWB relationship. Multiple regression analyses were performed separately for whites and blacks with GWB as the response variable, and fatness level, age, education, employment status, number of births, marital status, and health perception as predictor variables. In addition, 2- and 3-way interaction terms for leanness, obesity and age were included as predictor variables. Variables related to weight history and perception of body image were not collected in NHANES I, and thus were not included in this study.^ The results indicated that obesity was a statistically significant predictor of lower GWB in white women even when the other predictor variables were controlled. The full regression model identified the young, more educated, obese female as a subgroup with lower GWB, especially in blacks. These findings were not consistent with the previous non-clinical studies which found that obesity was associated with better mental health. The social stigma of being obese and the preoccupation of women with being lean may have contributed to the lower GWB in these women. ^

THE DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURVEY INSTRUMENT FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF OCCUPATIONAL STRESS

Using stress and coping as a unifying theoretical concept, a series of five models was developed in order to synthesize the survey questions and to classify information. These models identified the question, listed the research study, described measurements, listed workplace data, and listed industry and national reference data.^ A set of 38 instrument questions was developed within the five coping correlate categories. In addition, a set of 22 stress symptoms was also developed. The study was conducted within two groups, police and professors, on a large university campus. The groups were selected because their occupations were diverse, but they were a part of the same macroenvironment. The premise was that police officers would be more highly stressed than professors.^ Of a total study group of 80, there were 37 respondents. The difference in the mean stress responses was observable between the two groups. Not only were the responses similar within each group, but the stress level of response was also similar within each group. While the response to the survey instrument was good, only 3 respondents answered the stress symptom survey properly. It was determined that none of the 37 respondents believed that they were ill. This perception of being well was also evidenced by the grand mean of the stress scores of 2.76 (3.0 = moderate stress). This also caused fewer independent variables to be entered in the multiple regression model.^ The survey instrument was carefully designed to be universal. Universality is the ability to transcend occupational or regional definitions as applied to stress. It is the ability to measure responses within broad categories such as physiological, emotional, behavioral, social, and cognitive functions without losing the ability to measure the detail within the individual questions, or the relationships between questions and categories.^ Replication is much easier to achieve with standardized categories, questions, and measurement procedures such as those developed for the universal survey instrument. Because the survey instrument is universal it can be used as an analytical device, an assessment device, a basic tool for planning and a follow-up instrument to measure individual response to planned reductions in occupational stress. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

Variability in the Treatment of Elderly Patients with Stage IIIA (N2) Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated treatment patterns of elderly patients with stage IIIA (N2) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: The use of surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation for patients with stage IIIA (T1-T3N2M0) NSCLC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database from 2004 to 2007 was analyzed. Treatment variability was assessed using a multivariable logistic regression model that included treatment, patient, tumor, and census track variables. Overall survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier approach and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The most common treatments for 2958 patients with stage IIIA (N2) NSCLC were radiation with chemotherapy (n = 1065, 36%), no treatment (n = 534, 18%), and radiation alone (n = 383, 13%). Surgery was performed in 709 patients (24%): 235 patients (8%) had surgery alone, 40 patients (1%) had surgery with radiation, 222 patients had surgery with chemotherapy (8%), and 212 patients (7%) had surgery, chemotherapy, and radiation. Younger age (p < 0.0001), lower T-status (p < 0.0001), female sex (p = 0.04), and living in a census track with a higher median income (p = 0.03) predicted surgery use. Older age (p < 0.0001) was the only factor that predicted that patients did not get any therapy. The 3-year overall survival was 21.8 ± 1.5% for all patients, 42.1 ± 3.8% for patients that had surgery, and 15.4 ± 1.5% for patients that did not have surgery. Increasing age, higher T-stage and Charlson Comorbidity Index, and not having surgery, radiation, or chemotherapy were all risk factors for worse survival (all p values < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of elderly patients with stage IIIA (N2) NSCLC is highly variable and varies not only with specific patient and tumor characteristics but also with regional income level.

Factors other than the glomerular filtration rate that determine the serum beta-2-microglobulin level.

BACKGROUND β2-microglobulin has been increasingly investigated as a diagnostic marker of kidney function and a prognostic marker of adverse outcomes. To date, non-renal determinants of β2-microglobulin levels have not been well described. Non-renal determinants are important for the interpretation and appraisal of the diagnostic and prognostic value of any endogenous kidney function marker. METHODS This cross-sectional analysis was performed within the framework of the www.seniorlabor.ch study, which includes subjectively healthy individuals aged ≥ 60 years. Factors known or suspected to have a non-renal association with kidney function markers were investigated for a non-renal association with serum β2-microglobulin. As a marker of kidney function, the Berlin Initiative Study equation 2 for the estimation of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR(BIS2)) in the elderly was employed. RESULTS A total of 1302 participants (714 females and 588 males) were enrolled in the study. The use of a multivariate regression model adjusting for age, gender and kidney function (eGFR(BIS2)) revealed age, male gender, and C-reactive protein level to be positively associated with β2-microglobulin levels. In addition, there was an inverse non-renal relationship between systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and current smoking status. No association with markers of diabetes mellitus, body stature, nutritional risk, thyroid function or calcium and phosphate levels was observed. CONCLUSIONS Serum β2-microglobulin levels in elderly subjects are related to several non-renal factors. These non-renal factors are not congruent to those known from other markers (i.e. cystatin C and creatinine) and remind of classical cardiovascular risk factors.

Serotype epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in Swiss adults: A nationwide population-based study.

BACKGROUND In Switzerland, the heptavalent (PCV7) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) were recommended for all infants aged <2 years in 2007 and 2011, respectively. Due to herd effects, a protective impact on the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates in adults had been expected. METHODS Within this study, data from the nationwide mandatory surveillance was analyzed for all adult patients ≥16 years with IPD of known serotype/serogroup during 2003-2012. Trend (for IPD cases from 2003 to 2012) and logistic regression analyses (2007-2010) were performed to identify changes in serotype distribution and to identify the association of serotypes with age, clinical manifestations, comorbidities and case fatality, respectively. FINDINGS The proportion of PCV7 serotypes among all IPD cases (n=7678) significantly declined in adults from 44.7% (2003) before to 16.7% (2012) after the recommendation of PCV7 (P<0.001). In contrast, the proportion of non-PCV7 serogroup/serotypes increased for non-PCV13 but also PCV13 serotypes (not included in PCV7) at the same time. Serotype distribution varied significantly across ages, clinical manifestations and comorbidities. Serotype was furthermore associated with case fatality (P=0.001). In a multivariable logistic regression model, analyzing single serotypes showed that case-fatality was increased for the serotypes 3 (P=0.008), 19A (P=0.03) and 19F (P=0.005), compared to serotype 1 and 7F. CONCLUSION There was a significant decline in PCV7 serotypes among adults with IPD in Switzerland after introduction of childhood vaccination with PCV7. Pneumococcal serotypes were associated with case fatality, age, clinical manifestation and comorbidities of IPD in adults. These results may prove useful for future vaccine recommendations for adults in Switzerland.

The IFNL3/4 ΔG variant increases susceptibility to cytomegalovirus retinitis among HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis is a major cause of visual impairment and blindness among patients with uncontrolled HIV infections. Whereas polymorphisms in interferon-lambda 3 (IFNL3, previously named IL28B) strongly influence the clinical course of hepatitis C, few studies examined the role of such polymorphisms in infections due to viruses other than hepatitis C virus. OBJECTIVES To analyze the association of newly identified IFNL3/4 variant rs368234815 with susceptibility to CMV-associated retinitis in a cohort of HIV-infected patients. DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective longitudinal study included 4884 white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, among whom 1134 were at risk to develop CMV retinitis (CD4 nadir <100 /μl and positive CMV serology). The association of CMV-associated retinitis with rs368234815 was assessed by cumulative incidence curves and multivariate Cox regression models, using the estimated date of HIV infection as a starting point, with censoring at death and/or lost follow-up. RESULTS A total of 40 individuals among 1134 patients at risk developed CMV retinitis. The minor allele of rs368234815 was associated with a higher risk of CMV retinitis (log-rank test P = 0.007, recessive mode of inheritance). The association was still significant in a multivariate Cox regression model (hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval 1.09-4.92, P = 0.03), after adjustment for CD4 nadir and slope, HAART and HIV-risk groups. CONCLUSION We reported for the first time an association between an IFNL3/4 polymorphism and susceptibility to AIDS-related CMV retinitis. IFNL3/4 may influence immunity against viruses other than HCV.

IL1B and DEFB1 Polymorphisms Increase Susceptibility to Invasive Mold Infection After Solid Organ Transplantation.

BACKGROUND  Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in immune genes have been associated with susceptibility to invasive mold infection (IMI) among hematopoietic stem cell (HSCT) but not solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. METHODS  24 SNPs from systematically selected genes were genotyped among 1101 SOT recipients (715 kidneys, 190 liver, 102 lungs, 79 hearts, 15 other) from the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study. Association between SNPs and the endpoint were assessed by log-rank test and Cox regression models. Cytokine production upon Aspergillus stimulation was measured by ELISA in PBMCs from healthy volunteers and correlated with relevant genotypes. RESULTS  Mold colonization (N=45) and proven/probable IMI (N=26) were associated with polymorphisms in interleukin-1 beta (IL1B, rs16944; log-rank test, recessive mode, colonization P=0.001 and IMI P=0.00005), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL1RN, rs419598; P=0.01 and P=0.02) and β-defensin-1 (DEFB1, rs1800972; P=0.001 and P=0.0002, respectively). The associations with IL1B and DEFB1 remained significant in a multivariate regression model (IL1B rs16944 P=0.002; DEFB1 rs1800972 P=0.01). Presence of two copies of the rare allele of rs16944 or rs419598 was associated with reduced Aspergillus-induced IL-1β and TNFα secretion by PBMCs. CONCLUSIONS  Functional polymorphisms in IL1B and DEFB1 influence susceptibility to mold infection in SOT recipients. This observation may contribute to individual risk stratification.

Dental erosive wear assessment among adolescents and adults utilizing the basic erosive wear examination (BEWE) scoring system.

OBJECTIVES To investigate erosive tooth wear and related variables among adolescents and adults in Israel, utilizing the new basic erosive wear examination (BEWE) scoring system, in an attempt to contribute to the ongoing review, evaluation, and further development of an international standardized index. MATERIAL AND METHODS A cross-sectional, descriptive, and analytic survey was conducted among 500 subjects of five age groups. Dental erosion was measured according to the new BEWE scoring system. Independent variables included gender, age, origin, education, employment status, and diet. A backward stepwise linear regression model was applied to identify significantly associated variables. RESULTS Fifty percent of the survey subjects demonstrated erosive tooth wear; among them, 10 % had distinct erosion of over 50 % of the dental surface. Total BEWE score differences by age groups were statistically significant; as the age increased, the mean total BEWE scores increased (p < 0.001). The association between acidic foods and erosion was evident among the younger population (p = 0.038). In a multiple regression model, age (p < 0.001) and diet (p = 0.044) achieved statistical significance as variables associated with dental erosive wear. CONCLUSIONS Our study is one of the first to use the BEWE scoring system in an epidemiological survey among adolescents and adults. It was found that the BEWE index is straightforward, easy to conduct, and comfortably accepted by the examinees. CLINICAL RELEVANCE The present findings, together with further international research, should contribute toward continued evaluation of the BEWE system as an international standard and thereby, toward more optimal understanding, evidence-based treatment, and prevention of dental erosive wear.

Lesion location predicts transient and extended risk of aspiration after supratentorial ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE To assess the association of lesion location and risk of aspiration and to establish predictors of transient versus extended risk of aspiration after supratentorial ischemic stroke. METHODS Atlas-based localization analysis was performed in consecutive patients with MRI-proven first-time acute supratentorial ischemic stroke. Standardized swallowing assessment was carried out within 8±18 hours and 7.8±1.2 days after admission. RESULTS In a prospective, longitudinal analysis, 34 of 94 patients (36%) were classified as having acute risk of aspiration, which was extended (≥7 days) or transient (<7 days) in 17 cases. There were no between-group differences in age, sex, cause of stroke, risk factors, prestroke disability, lesion side, or the degree of age-related white-matter changes. Correcting for stroke volume and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale with a multiple logistic regression model, significant adjusted odds ratios in favor of acute risk of aspiration were demonstrated for the internal capsule (adjusted odds ratio, 6.2; P<0.002) and the insular cortex (adjusted odds ratio, 4.8; P<0.003). In a multivariate model of extended versus transient risk of aspiration, combined lesions of the frontal operculum and insular cortex was the only significant independent predictor of poor recovery (adjusted odds ratio, 33.8; P<0.008). CONCLUSIONS Lesions of the insular cortex and the internal capsule are significantly associated with acute risk of aspiration after stroke. Combined ischemic infarctions of the frontal operculum and the insular cortex are likely to cause extended risk of aspiration in stroke patients, whereas risk of aspiration tends to be transient in subcortical stroke.

New anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values for urinary 24-hour creatinine excretion based on the adult Swiss population.

BACKGROUND Urinary creatinine excretion is used as a marker of completeness of timed urine collections, which are a keystone of several metabolic evaluations in clinical investigations and epidemiological surveys. The current reference values for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion rely on observations performed in the 1960s and 1970s in relatively small and mostly selected groups, and may thus poorly fit to the present-day general European population. The aim of this study was to establish and validate anthropometry-based age- and sex-specific reference values of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion on adult populations with preserved renal function. METHODS We used data from two independent Swiss cross-sectional population-based studies with standardised 24-hour urinary collection and measured anthropometric variables. Only data from adults of European descent, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and reported completeness of the urinary collection were retained. A linear regression model was developed to predict centiles of the 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in 1,137 participants from the Swiss Survey on Salt and validated in 994 participants from the Swiss Kidney Project on Genes in Hypertension. RESULTS The mean urinary creatinine excretion was 193 ± 41 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 151 ± 38 μmol/kg/24 hours in women in the Swiss Survey on Salt. The values were inversely correlated with age and body mass index (BMI). Based on current reference values (177 to 221 μmol/kg/24 hours in men and 133 to 177 μmol/kg/24 hours in women), 56% of the urinary collections in the whole population and 67% in people >60 years old would have been considered as inaccurate. A linear regression model with sex, BMI and age as predictor variables was found to provide the best prediction of the observed values and showed a good fit when applied to the validation population. CONCLUSIONS We propose a validated prediction equation for 24-hour urinary creatinine excretion in the general European population, based on readily available variables such as age, sex and BMI, and a few derived normograms to ease its clinical application. This should help healthcare providers to interpret the completeness of a 24-hour urine collection in daily clinical practice and in epidemiological population studies.

Hypofibrinolysis in type 2 diabetes: the role of the inflammatory pathway and complement C3

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS Plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) has been regarded as the main antifibrinolytic protein in diabetes, but recent work indicates that complement C3 (C3), an inflammatory protein, directly compromises fibrinolysis in type 1 diabetes. The aim of the current project was to investigate associations between C3 and fibrinolysis in a large cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS Plasma levels of C3, C-reactive protein (CRP), PAI-1 and fibrinogen were analysed by ELISA in 837 patients enrolled in the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study. Fibrin clot lysis was analysed using a validated turbidimetric assay. RESULTS Clot lysis time correlated with C3 and PAI-1 plasma levels (r = 0.24, p < 0.001 and r = 0.22, p < 0.001, respectively). In a multivariable regression model involving age, sex, BMI, C3, PAI-1, CRP and fibrinogen, and using log-transformed data as appropriate, C3 was associated with clot lysis time (regression coefficient 0.227 [95% CI 0.161, 0.292], p < 0.001), as was PAI-1 (regression coefficient 0.033 [95% CI 0.020, 0.064], p < 0.05) but not fibrinogen (regression coefficient 0.003 [95% CI -0.046, 0.051], p = 0.92) or CRP (regression coefficient 0.024 [95% CI -0.008, 0.056], p = 0.14). No correlation was demonstrated between plasma levels of C3 and PAI-1 (r = -0.03, p = 0.44), consistent with previous observations that the two proteins affect different pathways in the fibrinolytic system. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION Similarly to PAI-1, C3 plasma levels are independently associated with fibrin clot lysis in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Therefore, future studies should analyse C3 plasma levels as a surrogate marker of fibrinolysis potential in this population.

Plasma T-cadherin negatively associates with coronary lesion severity and acute coronary syndrome.

AIMS This study evaluated associations between plasma T-cadherin levels and severity of atherosclerotic disease. METHODS AND RESULTS Three hundred and ninety patients undergoing coronary angiography were divided into three groups based on clinical and angiographic presentation: a group (n=40) with normal coronary arteries, a group (n=250) with chronic coronary artery disease and a group (n=100) with acute coronary syndrome. Plasma T-cadherin levels were measured by double sandwich ELISA. Intravascular ultrasound data of the left-anterior descending artery were acquired in a subgroup of 284 patients. T-cadherin levels were lower in patients with acute coronary syndrome than in normal patients (p=0.007) and patients with chronic coronary artery disease (p=0.002). Levels were lower in males (p=0.002), in patients with hypertension (p=0.002) and inpatients with diabetes (p=0.008), and negatively correlated with systolic blood pressure (p=0.014), body mass index (p=0.001) and total number of risk factors (p=0.001). T-cadherin negatively associated with angiographic severity of disease (p=0.001) and with quantitative intravascular ultrasound measures of lesion severity (p<0.001 for plaque, necrotic core and dense calcium volumes). Significant associations between T-cadherin and intravascular ultrasound measurements persisted even if the regression model was adjusted for the presence of acute coronary syndrome. Multivariate analysis identified a strong (p=0.002) negative association of T-cadherin with acute coronary syndrome, and lower T-cadherin levels significantly (p=0.002) associated with a higher risk of acute coronary syndrome independently of age, gender and cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS A reduction in plasma T-cadherin levels is associated with increasing severity of coronary artery disease and a higher risk for acute coronary syndrome.

Effect of Health Risk Assessment and Counselling on Health Behaviour and Survival in Older People: A Pragmatic Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.