An extravariation model for improving confidence intervals of population size estimates from removal data

We propose a new model for estimating the size of a population from successive catches taken during a removal experiment. The data from these experiments often have excessive variation, known as overdispersion, as compared with that predicted by the multinomial model. The new model allows catchability to vary randomly among samplings, which accounts for overdispersion. When the catchability is assumed to have a beta distribution, the likelihood function, which is refered to as beta-multinomial, is derived, and hence the maximum likelihood estimates can be evaluated. Simulations show that in the presence of extravariation in the data, the confidence intervals have been substantially underestimated in previous models (Leslie-DeLury, Moran) and that the new model provides more reliable confidence intervals. The performance of these methods was also demonstrated using two real data sets: one with overdispersion, from smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and the other without overdispersion, from rat (Rattus rattus).

Population structure, mortality and growth of Pinna nobilis Linnaeus, 1758 (Mollusca, Bivalvia) at different depths in Moraira bay (Alicante, Western Mediterranean)

An investigation to characterize the causes of Pinna nobilis population structure in Moraira bay (Western Mediterranean) was developed. Individuals of two areas of the same Posidonia meadow, located at different depths (A1, -13 and A2, -6 m), were inventoried, tagged, their positions accurately recorded and monitored from July 1997 to July 2002. On each area, different aspects of population demography were studied (i.e. spatial distribution, size structure, displacement evidences, mortality, growth and shell orientation). A comparison between both groups of individuals was carried out, finding important differences between them. In A1, the individuals were more aggregated and mean and maximum size were higher (A1, 10.3 and A2, 6 individuals/100 m(2); A1, x = 47.2 +/- 9.9; A2, x = 29.8 +/- 7.4 cm, P < 0.001, respectively). In A2, growth rate and mortality were higher, the latter concentrated on the largest individuals, in contrast to A1, where the smallest individuals had the higher mortality rate [A1, L = 56.03(1 - e(-0.17t)); A2, L = 37.59(1 - e(-0.40t)), P < 0.001; mean annual mortality A1: 32 dead individuals out of 135, 23.7% and A2: 16 dead individuals out of 36, 44.4%, and total mortality coefficients (z), z(A1(-30)) = 0.28, z(A1(31-45)) = 0.05, z(A1(46-)) = 0.08; z(A2(-30)) = 0.15, z(A2(31-45)) = 0.25]. A common shell orientation N-S, coincident with the maximum shore exposure, was observed in A2. Spatial distribution in both areas showed not enough evidence to discard a random distribution of the individuals, despite the greater aggregation on the deeper area (A1) (A1, chi(2) = 0.41, df = 3, P > 0.5, A2, chi(2)= 0.98, df = 2 and 0.3 < P < 0.5). The obtained results have demonstrated that the depth-related size segregation usually shown by P. nobilis is mainly caused by differences in mortality and growth among individuals located at different depths, rather than by the active displacement of individuals previously reported in the literature. Furthermore, dwarf individuals are observed in shallower levels and as a consequence, the relationship between size and age are not comparable even among groups of individuals inhabiting the same meadow at different depths. The final causes of the differences on mortality and growth are also discussed.

Effect of individual variability on estimation of population parameters from length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity and investigate the possible bias in the estimates when the individual variability is ignored. Three methods are examined: (i) the regression method based on the Beverton and Holt's (1956, Rapp. P.V. Reun. Cons. Int. Explor. Mer, 140: 67-83) equation; (ii) the moment method of Powell (1979, Rapp. PV. Reun. Int. Explor. Mer, 175: 167-169); and (iii) a generalization of Powell's method that estimates the individual variability to be incorporated into the estimation. It is found that the biases in the estimates from the existing methods are, in general, substantial, even when individual variability in growth is small and recruitment is uniform, and the generalized method performs better in terms of bias but is subject to a larger variation. There is a need to develop robust and flexible methods to deal with individual variability in the analysis of length-frequency data.

Non-melanoma skin cancer: Ten years of cancer-registry-based surveillance

The Tasmanian Cancer Registry carried out population-based surveillance of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) from 1978 to 1987. A total of 8,651 NMSC were recorded in 7,160 individuals, representing an age-standardized rate of 161/100,000 per year. Ninety-four percent of cases were based on histological diagnosis. Incidence of basal-cell carcinoma (BCC) was higher than the incidence of squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC). The incidence of NMSC was twice as high in men as in women. Incidence increased substantially with age, more markedly for SCC than BCC. For most body sites, BCC was more frequent, but on highly exposed sites such as the backs of hands, lower limbs in women and ears in men, the incidence of SCC was higher. There was an overall increase of 7% per year in the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC. The increase was more marked for BCC than for SCC, and was consistent across age groups and both sexes. A first NMSC during the study period was associated with a 12-fold increase among men and a 15-fold increase among women in the risk of development of a new NMSC within 5 years, when compared with the NMSC incidence recorded for the population as a whole.

Variable Size Population NSGA-II: VPNSGA-II

Multi-objective optimization is an active field of research with broad applicability in aeronautics. This report details a variant of the original NSGA-II software aimed to improve the performances of such a widely used Genetic Algorithm in finding the optimal Pareto-front of a Multi-Objective optimization problem for the use of UAV and aircraft design and optimsaiton. Original NSGA-II works on a population of predetermined constant size and its computational cost to evaluate one generation is O(mn^2 ), being m the number of objective functions and n the population size. The basic idea encouraging this work is that of reduce the computational cost of the NSGA-II algorithm by making it work on a population of variable size, in order to obtain better convergence towards the Pareto-front in less time. In this work some test functions will be tested with both original NSGA-II and VPNSGA-II algorithms; each test will be timed in order to get a measure of the computational cost of each trial and the results will be compared.

Effect of fumigation temperature on the efficacy of phosphine against strongly resistant psocids liposcelis bostrychophila (Pscodoptera: Liposcelididae)

Species of Liposcelis psocids have emerged as major pests of stored grain in Australia in recent years. Several populations have been detected with high resistance to phosphine, the major chemical treatment. Highest resistance has been detected in the cosmopolitan species Liposcelis bostrychophila. As part of a national resistance management strategy to maintain the viability of phosphine, we are developing minimum effective dosage regimes (concentration x time) required to control all life stages of resistant L. bostrychophila at a range of grain temperatures. Four concentrations of phosphine, 0.1, 0.17, 0.3 aid 1 mg/L, were evaluated for their effectiveness against strongly resistant L. bostrychophila at a series of fumigation temperatures: 20, 25, 30 and 35°C. Results were recorded as the least number of days taken to achieve population extinction. We found that, at any fixed concentration of phosphine, time to population extinction decreased as fumigation temperature increased from 20 to 30°C. For example, at 0.1 mg/L, it took more than 14 days at 20°C to completely control these insects, whereas at 30°C it took only seven days. Increase in fumigation temperature from 25OC to 30°C dramatically reduced the exposure period needed to achieve population extinction of resistant psocids. For example, a dose of 0.17 mg/L over six days at 30°C completely controlled strongly resistant L. bostrychophila populations that can survive at 1 mg/L and 25°C over the same exposure period. Findings from our study will be used to formulate recommendations for registered dosage rates and fumigation periods for use in Australia.

Pronounced genetic population structure in a potentially vagile fish species (Pristipomoides multidens, Teleostei; Perciformes; Lutjanidae) from the East Indies triangle

The East Indies triangle, bordered by the Phillipines, Malay Peninsula and New Guinea, has a high level of tropical marine species biodiversity. Pristipomoides multidens is a large, long-lived, fecund snapper species that is distributed throughout the East Indies and Indo-Pacific. Samples were analysed from central and eastern Indonesia and northern Australia to test for genetic discontinuities in population structure. Fish (n = 377) were collected from the Indonesian islands of Bali, Sumbawa, Flores, West Timor, Tanimbar and Tual along with 131 fish from two northern Australian locations (Arafura and Timor Seas) from a previous study. Genetic variation in the control region of the mitochondrial genome was assayed using restriction fragment length polymorphism and direct sequencing. Haplotype diversity was high (0.67-0.82), as was intraspecific sequence divergence (range 0-5.8%). FST between pairs of populations ranged from 0 to 0.2753. Genetic subdivision was apparent on a small spatial scale; FST was 0.16 over 191 km (Bali/Sumbawa) and 0.17 over 491 km (Bali/Flores). Constraints to dispersal that contribute to, and maintain, the observed degree of genetic subdivision are experienced presumably by all life history stages of this tropical marine finfish. The constraints may include (1) little or no movement of eggs or larvae, (2) little or no home range or migratory movement of adults and (3) loss of larval cohorts due to transport of larvae away from suitable habitat by prevailing currents

Pig effluent-P application can increase risk of P transport: two case studies

Land application of piggery effluent (containing urine, faeces, water, and wasted feed) is under close scrutiny as a potential source of water resource contamination with phosphorus (P). This paper investigates two case studies of the impact of long-term piggery effluent-P application to soil. A Natrustalf (Sodosol) at P1 has received a net load of 3700 kg effluent P/ha over 19 years. The Haplustalf (Dermosol) selected (P2) has received a net load of 310 000 kg P/ha over 30 years. Total, bicarbonate extractable, and soluble P forms were determined throughout the soil profiles for paired (irrigated and unirrigated) sites at P1 and P2, as well as P sorption and desorption characteristics. Surface bicarbonate (PB, 0 - 0.05 m depth) and dilute CaCl2 extractable molybdate-reactive P (PC) have been significantly elevated by effluent irrigation (P1: PB unirrigated 23±1, irrigated 290±6; PC unirrigated 0.03±0.00, irrigated 23.9±0.2. P2: PB unirrigated 72±48, irrigated 3950±1960; PC unirrigated 0.7±0.0, irrigated 443±287 mg P/kg; mean±s.d.). Phosphorus enrichment to 1.5 m, detected as PB, was observed at P2. Elevated concentrations of CaCl2 extractable organic P forms (POC; estimated by non-molybdate reactive P in centrifuged supernatants) were observed from the soil surface of P1 to a depth of 0.4 m. Despite the extent of effluent application at both of these sites, only P1 displayed evidence of significant accumulation of POC. The increase in surface soil total P (0 - 0.05 m depth) due to effluent irrigation was much greater than laboratory P sorption (>25 times for P1; >57 times for P2) for a comparable range of final solution concentrations (desorption extracts ranged from 1-5 mg P/L for P1 and 50-80 mg P/L for P2). Precipitation of sparingly soluble P phases was evidenced in the soils of the P2 effluent application area.

Growth and Carcase Characters of Progeny from Caprine Feral Does Mated to Boer or Feral Bucks in Western Queensland

In recent years significant numbers of Australian goats have been harvested from the feral population to supply a strong demand for export of meat. In addition large numbers of feral does have been domesticated to increase breeding herds in western Queensland. Introduction of the Boer breed to Australia as a specialist meat goat may provide a genetic means for improving the productive performance of the Australian feral. The present paper reports growth and carcase attributes of feral and Boer x feral genotypes born in 1998 and birthweight of those born in 1999. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Do H-functions always increase during Violent Relaxation

Recent work on the violent relaxation of collisionless stellar systems has been based on the notion of a wide class of entropy functions. A theorem concerning entropy increase has been proved. We draw attention to some underlying assumptions that have been ignored in the applications of this theorem to stellar dynamical problems. Once these are taken into account, the use of this theorem is at best heuristic. We present a simple counter-example.

Pheromone-mediated mass trapping and population diversion as strategies for suppressing Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) in Australian stone fruit orchards

1 Five experiments were conducted during 1995-99 in stone fruit orchards on the Central Coast and in inland New South Wales, Australia, on the use of synthetic aggregation pheromones and a coattractant to suppress populations of the ripening fruit pests Carpophilus spp. (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae). 2 Perimeter-based suppression traps baited with pheromone and coattractant placed at 3m intervals around small fruit blocks, caught large numbers of Carpophilus spp. Very small populations of Carpophilus spp. occurred within blocks, and fruit damage was minimal. 3 Carpophilus spp. populations in stone fruit blocks 15-370m from suppression traps were also small and non-damaging, indicating a large zone of pheromone attractivity. 4 Pheromone/coattractant-baited suppression traps appeared to divert Carpophilus spp. from nearby (130 m) ripening stone fruit. Ten metal drums containing decomposing fruit, baited with pheromone and treated with insecticide, attracted Carpophilus spp. and appeared to reduce populations and damage to ripening fruit at distances of 200-500 m. Populations and damage were significantly greater within 200m of the drums and may have been caused by ineffective poisoning or poor quality/overcrowding of fruit resources in the drums. 5 Suppression of Carpophilus spp. populations using synthetic aggregation pheromones and a coattractant appears to be a realistic management option in stone fruit orchards. Pheromone-mediated diversion of beetle populations from ripening fruit may be more practical than perimeter trapping, but more research is needed on the effective range of Carpophilus pheromones and the relative merits of trapping compared to attraction to insecticide-treated areas.

Stock assessment of the Queensland-New South Wales tailor fishery (Pomatomus saltatrix)

Data on catch sizes, catch rates, length-frequency and age composition from the Australian east coast tailor fishery are analysed by three different population dynamic models: a surplus production model, an age-structured model, and a model in which the population is structured by both age and length. The population is found to be very heavily exploited, with its ability to reproduce dependent on the fishery’s incomplete selectivity of one-year-old fish. Estimates of recent harvest rates (proportion of fish available to the fishery that are actually caught in a single year) are over 80%. It is estimated that only 30–50% of one-year-old fish are available to the fishery. Results from the age-length-structured model indicate that both exploitable biomass (total mass of fish selected by the fishery) and egg production have fallen to about half the levels that prevailed in the 1970s, and about 40% of virgin levels. Two-year-old fish appear to have become smaller over the history of the fishery. This is assumed to be due to increased fishing pressure combined with non-selectivity of small one-year-old fish, whereby the one-year-old fish that survive fishing are small and grow into small two-year-old fish the following year. An alternative hypothesis is that the stock has undergone a genetic change towards smaller fish; the true explanation is unknown. The instantaneous natural mortality rate of tailor is hypothesised to be higher than previously thought, with values between 0.8 and 1.3 yr–1 consistent with the models. These values apply only to tailor up to about three years of age, and it is possible that a lower value applies to fish older than three. The analysis finds no evidence that fishing pressure has yet affected recruitment. If a recruitment downturn were to occur, however, under current management and fishing pressure there is a strong chance that the fishery would need a complete closure for several years to recover, and even then recovery would be uncertain. Therefore it is highly desirable to better protect the spawning stock. The major recommendations are • An increase in the minimum size limit from 30cm to 40cm in order to allow most one-year-old fish to spawn, and • An experiment on discard mortality to gauge the proportion of fish between 30cm and 40cm that are likely to survive being caught and released by recreational line fishers (the dominant component of the fishery, currently harvesting roughly 1000t p.a. versus about 200t p.a. from the commercial fishery).

Population ecology of Heteronyx piceus (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in a peanut/maize cropping system

Large larval populations of the scarabaeid beetle Heteronyx piceus Blanchard that occur under peanuts, but not maize, in the South Burnett region of Australia are the result of a high rate and prolonged period of egg production by females feeding on peanut foliage. Heteronyx piceus is a relatively sedentary species and movement of females between adjacent fields is low. Populations of H. piceus varied markedly with landscape position. High larval populations are more likely (1 in 4 chance) to be encountered on the ‘scrub’ soils in the upper parts of the landscape than in the ‘forest’ soils in the lower half (1 in 20 chance), indicating that soil type/landscape position is a key risk factor in assessing the need for management intervention. The studies indicate that, because of the species' sedentary nature, the most meaningful population entity for management of H. piceus is the individual field, rather than the whole-farm or the region. The implications of this population ecology for management of the pest are discussed in relation to control strategies.