Informal dissemination scenarios and the effectiveness of evacuation warning dissemination of households:a simulation study

Timely warning of the public during large scale emergencies is essential to ensure safety and save lives. This ongoing study proposes an agent-based simulation model to simulate the warning message dissemination among the public considering both official channels and unofficial channels The proposed model was developed in NetLogo software for a hypothetical area, and requires input parameters such as effectiveness of each official source (%), estimated time to begin informing others, estimated time to inform others and estimated percentage of people (who do not relay the message). This paper demonstrates a means of factoring the behaviour of the public as informants into estimating the effectiveness of warningdissemination during large scale emergencies. The model provides a tool for the practitioner to test the potential impact of the informal channels on the overall warning time and sensitivity of the modelling parameters. The tool would help the practitioners to persuade evacuees to disseminate the warning message informing others similar to the ’Run to thy neighbour campaign conducted by the Red cross.

Experiments for CFD-modelling of cooling water and Insulation debris two-phase flow phenomena during loss of coolant accidents

The knowledge of insulation debris generation and transport gains in importance regarding reactor safety research for PWR and BWR. The insulation debris released near the break consists of a mixture of very different fibres and particles concerning size, shape, consistence and other properties. Some fraction of the released insulation debris will be transported into the reactor sump where it may affect emergency core cooling. Experiments are performed to blast original samples of mineral wool insulation material by steam under original thermal-hydraulic break conditions of BWR. The gained fragments are used as initial specimen for further experiments at acrylic glass test facilities. The quasi ID-sinking behaviour of the insulation fragments are investigated in a water column by optical high speed video techniques and methods of image processing. Drag properties are derived from the measured sinking velocities of the fibres and observed geometric parameters for an adequate CFD modelling. In the test rig "Ring line-II" the influence of the insulation material on the head loss is investigated for debris loaded strainers. Correlations from the filter bed theory are adapted with experimental results and are used to model the flow resistance depending on particle load, filter bed porosity and parameters of the coolant flow. This concept also enables the simulation of a particular blocked strainer with CFDcodes. During the ongoing work further results of separate effect and integral experiments and the application and validation of the CFD-models for integral test facilities and original containment sump conditions are expected.

Parametric Identification and Diagnosis of Integrated Navigation Systems in Bench Test Process

Growth of complexity and functional importance of integrated navigation systems (INS) leads to high losses at the equipment refusals. The paper is devoted to the INS diagnosis system development, allowing identifying the cause of malfunction. The proposed solutions permit taking into account any changes in sensors dynamic and accuracy characteristics by means of the appropriate error models coefficients. Under actual conditions of INS operation, the determination of current values of the sensor models and estimation filter parameters rely on identification procedures. The results of full-scale experiments are given, which corroborate the expediency of INS error models parametric identification in bench test process.

Sensitivity and Bias within the Binary Signal Detection Theory, BSDT

Similar to classic Signal Detection Theory (SDT), recent optimal Binary Signal Detection Theory (BSDT) and based on it Neural Network Assembly Memory Model (NNAMM) can successfully reproduce Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves although BSDT/NNAMM parameters (intensity of cue and neuron threshold) and classic SDT parameters (perception distance and response bias) are essentially different. In present work BSDT/NNAMM optimal likelihood and posterior probabilities are analytically analyzed and used to generate ROCs and modified (posterior) mROCs, optimal overall likelihood and posterior. It is shown that for the description of basic discrimination experiments in psychophysics within the BSDT a ‘neural space’ can be introduced where sensory stimuli as neural codes are represented and decision processes are defined, the BSDT’s isobias curves can simultaneously be interpreted as universal psychometric functions satisfying the Neyman-Pearson objective, the just noticeable difference (jnd) can be defined and interpreted as an atom of experience, and near-neutral values of biases are observers’ natural choice. The uniformity or no-priming hypotheses, concerning the ‘in-mind’ distribution of false-alarm probabilities during ROC or overall probability estimations, is introduced. The BSDT’s and classic SDT’s sensitivity, bias, their ROC and decision spaces are compared.

Analysis and improvement of performance in LCL filter-based PWM rectifier/inverter application using hybrid damping approach

A hybrid passive-active damping solution with improved system stability margin and enhanced dynamic performance is proposed for high power grid interactive converters. In grid connected active rectifier/inverter application, line side LCL filter improves the high frequency attenuation and makes the converter compatible with the stringent grid power quality regulations. Passive damping though offers a simple and reliable solution but it reduces overall converter efficiency. Active damping solutions do not increase the system losses but can guarantee the stable operation up to a certain speed of dynamic response which is limited by the maximum bandwidth of the current controller. This paper examines this limit and introduces a concept of hybrid passive-active damping solution with improved stability margin and high dynamic performance for line side LCL filter based active rectifier/inverter applications. A detailed design, analysis of the hybrid approach and trade-off between system losses and dynamic performance in grid connected applications are reported. Simulation and experimental results from a 10 kVA prototype demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed solution. An analytical study on system stability and dynamic response with the variations of various controller and passive filter parameters is presented.

Influence of processing and clay type on nanostructure and stability of polypropylene-clay nanocomposites

Melt processing is a critical step in the manufacture of polymer articles and is even more critical when dealing with inhomogeneous polymer-clay nanocomposites systems. The chemical composition, and in particular the clay type and its organic modification, also plays a major contribution in determining the final properties and in particular the thermal and long-term oxidative stability of the resulting polymer nanocomposites. Proper selection and tuning of the process variable should, in principle, lead to improved characteristics of the fabricated product. With multiphase systems containing inorganic nanoclays, however, this is not straightforward and it is often the case that the process conditions are chosen initially to improve one or more desired properties at the expense of others. This study assesses the influence of organo-modified clays and the processing parameters (extrusion temperature and screw speed) on the rheological and morphological characteristics of polymer nanocomposites as well as on their melt and thermo-oxidative stability. Nanocomposites (PPNCs) based on PP, maleated PP and organically modified clays were prepared in different co-rotating twin-screw extruders ranging from laboratory scale to semi-industrial scale. Results show that the amount of surfactant present in similar organo-modified clays affects differently the thermo-oxidative stability of the extruded PPNCs and that changes in processing conditions affect the clay morphology too. By choosing an appropriate set of tuned process variables for the extrusion process it would be feasible to selectively fabricate polymer-clay nanocomposites, with the desired mechanical and thermo-oxidative characteristics. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis and Data Mining of Lead-Zinc Ore Data

This paper presents the results of our data mining study of Pb-Zn (lead-zinc) ore assay records from a mine enterprise in Bulgaria. We examined the dataset, cleaned outliers, visualized the data, and created dataset statistics. A Pb-Zn cluster data mining model was created for segmentation and prediction of Pb-Zn ore assay data. The Pb-Zn cluster data model consists of five clusters and DMX queries. We analyzed the Pb-Zn cluster content, size, structure, and characteristics. The set of the DMX queries allows for browsing and managing the clusters, as well as predicting ore assay records. A testing and validation of the Pb-Zn cluster data mining model was developed in order to show its reasonable accuracy before beingused in a production environment. The Pb-Zn cluster data mining model can be used for changes of the mine grinding and floatation processing parameters in almost real-time, which is important for the efficiency of the Pb-Zn ore beneficiation process. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.2.8, H.3.3.

Annealing effects on strain and stress sensitivity of polymer optical fibre based sensors

The annealing effects on strain and stress sensitivity of polymer optical fibre Bragg grating sensors after their photo-inscription are investigated. PMMA optical fibre based Bragg grating sensors are first photo-inscribed and then they were placed into hot water for annealing. Strain, stress and force sensitivity measurements are taken before and after annealing. Parameters such as annealing time and annealing temperature are investigated. The change of the fibre diameter due to water absorption and the annealing process is also considered. The results show that annealing the polymer optical fibre tends to increase the strain, stress and force sensitivity of the photo-inscribed sensor.

HIV, cardiovascular diseases, and chronic arsenic exposure co-exist in a positive synergy

Recent epidemiological evidences indicate that arsenic exposure increases risk of atherosclerosis, cardio vascular diseases (CVD) such as hypertension, atherosclerosis, coronary artery disease (CAD) and microangiopathies in addition to the serious global health concern related to its carcinogenic effects. In experiments on animals, acute and chronic exposure to arsenic directly correlates with cardiac tachyarrhythmia, and atherogenesis in a concentration and duration dependent manner. Moreover, the other effects of long-term arsenic exposure include induction of non-insulin dependent diabetes by mechanisms yet to be understood. On the other hand, there are controversial issues, gaps in knowledge, and future research priorities in accelerated incidences of CVD and mortalities in patients with HIV who are under long-termanti-retroviral therapy (ART). Although, both HIV infection itself and various components of ART initiate significant pathological alterations in the myocardium and the vasculature, simultaneous environmental exposure to arsenic which is more convincingly being recognized as a facilitator of HIV viral cycling in the infected immune cells, may contribute an additional layer of adversity in these patients. A high degree of suspicion and early screening may allow appropriate interventional guidelines to improve the quality of lives of those affected. In this mini-review which have been fortified with our own preliminary data, we will discuss some of the key current understating of chronic arsenic exposure, and its possible impact on the accelerated HIV/ART induced CVD. The review will conclude with notes on recent developments in mathematical modeling in this field that probabilistically forecast incidence prevalence as functions of aging and life style parameters, most of which vary with time themselves; this interdisciplinary approach provides a complementary kernel to conventional biology.

Optimisation of chromatographic separation of oxidised phospholipids and detection with targeted approaches provides greater coverage of the oxidised lipidome

Phospholipid oxidation by adventitious damage generates a wide variety of products with potentially novel biological activities that can modulate inflammatory processes associated with various diseases. To understand the biological importance of oxidised phospholipids (OxPL) and their potential role as disease biomarkers requires precise information about the abundance of these compounds in cells and tissues. There are many chemiluminescence and spectrophotometric assays available for detecting oxidised phospholipids, but they all have some limitations. Mass spectrometry coupled with liquid chromatography is a powerful and sensitive approach that can provide detailed information about the oxidative lipidome, but challenges still remain. The aim of this work is to develop improved methods for detection of OxPLs by optimisation of chromatographic separation through testing several reverse phase columns and solvent systems, and using targeted mass spectrometry approaches. Initial experiments were carried out using oxidation products generated in vitro to optimise the chromatography separation parameters and mass spectrometry parameters. We have evaluated the chromatographic separation of oxidised phosphatidylcholines (OxPCs) and oxidised phosphatidylethanolamines (OXPEs) using C8, C18 and C30 reverse phase, polystyrene – divinylbenzene based monolithic and mixed – mode hydrophilic interaction (HILIC) columns, interfaced with mass spectrometry. Our results suggest that the monolithic column was best able to separate short chain OxPCs and OxPEs from long chain oxidised and native PCs and PEs. However, variation in charge of polar head groups and extreme diversity of oxidised species make analysis of several classes of OxPLs within one analytical run impractical. We evaluated and optimised the chromatographic separation of OxPLs by serially coupling two columns: HILIC and monolith column that provided us the larger coverage of OxPL species in a single analytical run.

Assessment of anxiety sensitivity in depressed, older patients and its relation to hypochondriacal concerns

Anxiety disorders in older adults are often overlooked as part of other mental disorders or as part of medical illnesses. Theoretically, anxiety sensitivity is a common component in anxiety disorders, a personality construct and a fundamental fear. Anxiety sensitivity was assessed in a sample of older adults: 53 depressed, M age = 78.8 years; and 53 healthy controls, M age = 70.9 years. This study examined whether anxiety sensitivity: (1) explained unique variance beyond that explained by trait anxiety, (2) was observed in the depressed group in levels similar to individuals who suffer from non-panic, anxiety disorders, and (3) correlated with current number of medical illnesses, previous number of medical illnesses, and hypochondriasis. The results indicated that anxiety sensitivity: predicted hypochondriasis better than trait anxiety, was present in the depressed group similarly to individuals suffering from non-panic, anxiety disorders, and was strongly associated with hypochondriacal concerns. ^

Foundational forensic techniques for cellular and ad hoc multi-hop networks

The Internet has become an integral part of our nation’s critical socio-economic infrastructure. With its heightened use and growing complexity however, organizations are at greater risk of cyber crimes. To aid in the investigation of crimes committed on or via the Internet, a network forensics analysis tool pulls together needed digital evidence. It provides a platform for performing deep network analysis by capturing, recording and analyzing network events to find out the source of a security attack or other information security incidents. Existing network forensics work has been mostly focused on the Internet and fixed networks. But the exponential growth and use of wireless technologies, coupled with their unprecedented characteristics, necessitates the development of new network forensic analysis tools. This dissertation fostered the emergence of a new research field in cellular and ad-hoc network forensics. It was one of the first works to identify this problem and offer fundamental techniques and tools that laid the groundwork for future research. In particular, it introduced novel methods to record network incidents and report logged incidents. For recording incidents, location is considered essential to documenting network incidents. However, in network topology spaces, location cannot be measured due to absence of a ‘distance metric’. Therefore, a novel solution was proposed to label locations of nodes within network topology spaces, and then to authenticate the identity of nodes in ad hoc environments. For reporting logged incidents, a novel technique based on Distributed Hash Tables (DHT) was adopted. Although the direct use of DHTs for reporting logged incidents would result in an uncontrollably recursive traffic, a new mechanism was introduced that overcome this recursive process. These logging and reporting techniques aided forensics over cellular and ad-hoc networks, which in turn increased their ability to track and trace attacks to their source. These techniques were a starting point for further research and development that would result in equipping future ad hoc networks with forensic components to complement existing security mechanisms.

Shifting N and P limitation along a north-south gradient of mangrove estuaries in South Florida

A multivariate statistical analysis was applied to a 10 year, multiparameter data set in an effort to describe the spatial dependence and inherent variation of water quality patterns in the mangrove estuaries of Ten Thousand Islands – Whitewater Bay area. Principal component analysis (PCA) of 16 water quality parameters collected monthly resulted in five groupings, which explained 72.5% of the variance of the original variables. The “Organic” component (PCI) was composed of alkaline phosphatase activity, total organic nitrogen, and total organic carbon; the “Dissolved Inorganic N” component (PCII) contained NO 3 − , NO 2 − , and NH 4 + ; the “Phytoplankton” component (PCIII) was made up of total phosphorus, chlorophyll a, and turbidity; dissolved oxygen and temperature were inversely related (PCIV); and salinity and soluble reactive phosphorus made up PCV. A cluster analysis of the mean and SD of PC scores resulted in the spatial aggregation of the 47 fixed stations into six classes having similar water quality, which we defined as: Mangrove Rivers, Whitewater Bay, Gulf Islands, Coot Bay, Blackwater River, and Inland Waterway. Marked differences in physical, chemical, and biological characteristics among classes were illustrated by this technique. Comparison of medians and variability of parameters among classes allowed large scale generalizations as to underlying differences in water quality in these regions. A strong south to north gradient in estuaries from high N - low P to low N - high P was ascribed to marked differences in landuse, freshwater input, geomorphology, and sedimentary geology along this tract. The ecological significance of this gradient discussed along with potential effects of future restoration plans.

Temporal and Spatial Variability of Mesozooplankton in a Shallow Sub-Tropical Bay: Influence of Top-Down Control

Quantifying the relationship between mesozooplankton and water quality parameters identifies the factors that structure the mesozooplankton community and can be used to generate hypotheses regarding the mechanisms that control the mesozooplankton population and potentially the trophic network. To investigate this relationship, mesozooplankton and water quality data were collected in Florida Bay from 1994 to 2004. Three key characteristics were found in the mesozooplankton community structure: (1) there are significant differences between the four sub-regions of Florida Bay; (2) there is a break in May of 1997 with significant differences before and after this date; and (3) there is a positive correlation between mesozooplankton abundance and salinity. The latter two characteristics are closely correlated with predator abundance, indicating the importance of top-down control. Hypersaline periods appear to provide a refuge from predators, allowing mesozooplankton to increase in abundance despite the increased physiological stress.

The Allelic Abundance of Afghanistan, a Pool for West and South Eurasian Genes and a Blockade against Eastern Admixture

In this study, I divided samples from individuals within Afghanistan based upon geography (i.e., north versus south). I determined allelic frequencies and other statistical parameters for 15 STR loci (i.e., D8S1179, D21S11, D7S820, CSF1PO, D3S1358, TH01, Dl3S317, D16S539, D2S1338, D19S433, vWA, TPOX, D18S51, D5S818, and FGA). I conducted pairwise comparisons with 19 neighboring Eurasian populations to assign Gstatistics and p-values. Categorizing the populations into five groups (i.e., Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and the Caucasus/Anatolia), I derived values for intra-population, inter-population, and total variance. Admixture analyses determined the highest allelic contributions to be from the Caucasus/ Anatolia, while negligible contributions were made by Central Asia and East Asia. A Correspondence Analysis revealed clustering of both northern and southern Afghanistan with Georgia, Turkey, northern Iran, and southern Iran of the Caucasus/ Anatolia and the Middle East. A Neighbor-Joining phylogenetic tree was constructed to generate bootstrap values over 1, 000 reiterations.