Overfitting Bayesian mixture models with an unknown number of components

This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

The Introduction of Transgenes to Control Blackheart in Pineapple: Biolistics Vs Agrobacterium Transformation, in 'Contributing to a Sustainable Future'

Techniques for the introduction of transgenes to control blackheart by particle bombardment and Agrobacterium co-transformation have been developed for pineapple cv. Smooth Cayenne. Polyphenol oxidase (PPO) is the enzyme responsible for blackheart development in pineapple fruit following chilling injury. Sense, anti-sense and hairpin constructs were used as a means to suppress PPO expression in plants. Average transformation efficiency for biolistics was approximately 1% and for Agrobacterium was approximately 1.5%. These results were considered acceptable given the high regeneration potential of between 80-90% from callus cultures. Southern blot analysis revealed stable integration of transgenes with lower copy number found in plants transformed with Agrobacterium compared to those transformed by biolistics. Over 5000 plants from 55 transgenic lines are now undergoing field evaluation in Australia

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Effects of particle size distribution in the response of model granular materials in multi-ring shear

Rail track undergoes complex loading patterns under moving traffic conditions compared to roads due to its continued and discontinued multi-layered structure, including rail, sleepers, ballast layer, sub-ballast layer, and subgrade. Particle size distributions (PSDs) of ballast, subballast, and subgrade layers can be critical in cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under moving traffic on frequent track degradation of rail tracks, especially at bridge transition zones. Conventional test approaches: static shear and cyclic single-point load tests are however unable to replicate actual loading patterns of moving train. Multi-ring shear apparatus; a new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, which can reproduce moving traffic conditions, was used in this study to investigate influence of particle size distribution of rail track layers on cyclic plastic deformation. Three particle size distributions, using glass beads were examined under different loading patterns: cyclic sin-gle-point load, and cyclic moving wheel load to evaluate cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under different loading methods. The results of these tests suggest that particle size distributions of rail track structural layers have significant impacts on cyclic plastic deformation under moving train load. Further, the limitations in con-ventional test methods used in laboratories to estimate the plastic deformation of rail track materials lead to underestimate the plastic deformation of rail tracks.

Effect of changes in hook pattern and size on catch rate, hooking location, injury and bleeding for a number of tropical reef fish species

The Queensland Great Barrier Reef line fishery in Australia is regulated via a range of input and output controls including minimum size limits, daily catch limits and commercial catch quotas. As a result of these measures a substantial proportion of the catch is released or discarded. The fate of these released fish is uncertain, but hook-related mortality can potentially be decreased by using hooks that reduce the rates of injury, bleeding and deep hooking. There is also the potential to reduce the capture of non-target species though gear selectivity. A total of 1053 individual fish representing five target species and three non-target species were caught using six hook types including three hook patterns (non-offset circle, J and offset circle), each in two sizes (small 4/0 or 5/0 and large 8/0). Catch rates for each of the hook patterns and sizes varied between species with no consistent results for target or non-target species. When data for all of the fish species were aggregated there was a trend for larger hooks, J hooks and offset circle hooks to cause a greater number of injuries. Using larger hooks was more likely to result in bleeding, although this trend was not statistically significant. Larger hooks were also more likely to foul-hook fish or hook fish in the eye. There was a reduction in the rates of injuries and bleeding for both target and non-target species when using the smaller hook sizes. For a number of species included in our study the incidence of deep hooking decreased when using non-offset circle hooks, however, these results were not consistent for all species. Our results highlight the variability in hook performance across a range of tropical demersal finfish species. The most obvious conservation benefits for both target and non-target species arise from using smaller sized hooks and non-offset circle hooks. Fishers should be encouraged to use these hook configurations to reduce the potential for post-release mortality of released fish.

Ultrafine powders of SrTiO3 from the hydrothermal preparation and their catalytic activity in the photolysis of water

Ultrafine powders of SrTiO3 are prepared at 100–150°C by the hydrothermal method, starting from TiO2·xH2O gel and Sr(OH)2 and H2O-isopropanol mixed solvent as the medium, The X-ray diffractograms of the powder show line broadening. The minimum crystallite size obtained ranges from 5 to 20nm with 20% H2O-80% C3H7OH as the reaction medium, as estimated from X-ray half-peak widths and TEM studies. The electron diffraction results indicate high concentration of lattice defects in these crystallites. The optical spectra of the particle suspensions in water show that the absorption around the band gap is considerably broadened, together with the appearance of maxima in the far ultraviolet. Aqueous suspensions of SrTiO3 powders, as such, do not produce H2 or O2 on UV irradiation. After coating with rhodium, H2 and O2 are evolved on illumination. However, the turn over number of O2 is lower than the stoichiometrically expected values from the corresponding values of H2. No correlation of the photocatalytic activity with surface area is observed. The activity of Rh-SrTiO3 slowly deteriorates with extended period of irradiation.

Atmospheric visibility and PM10 as indicators of new particle formation in an urban environment

It is well-known that new particle formation (NPF) in the atmosphere is inhibited by pre-existing particles in the air that act as condensation sinks to decrease the concentration and, thus, the supersaturation of precursor gases. In this study, we investigate the effects of two parameters - atmospheric visibility, expressed as the particle back-scatter coefficient (BSP), and PM10 particulate mass concentration, on the occurrences of NPF events in an urban environment where the majority of precursor gases originate from motor vehicle and industrial sources. This is the first attempt to derive direct relationships between each of these two parameters and the occurrence of NPF. NPF events were identified from data obtained with a neutral cluster and air ion spectrometer over 245 days within a calendar year. Bayesian logistic regression was used to determine the probability of observing NPF as functions of BSP and PM10. We show that the BSP at 08 h on a given day is a reliable indicator of an NPF event later that day. The posterior median probability of observing an NPF event was greater than 0.5 (95%) when the BSP at 08 h was less than 6.8 Mm-1.

Hardness Methods for Testing Maize Kernels

Maize is a highly important crop to many countries around the world, through the sale of the maize crop to domestic processors and subsequent production of maize products and also provides a staple food to subsistance farms in undeveloped countries. In many countries, there have been long-term research efforts to develop a suitable hardness method that could assist the maize industry in improving efficiency in processing as well as possibly providing a quality specification for maize growers, which could attract a premium. This paper focuses specifically on hardness and reviews a number of methodologies as well as important biochemical aspects of maize that contribute to maize hardness used internationally. Numerous foods are produced from maize, and hardness has been described as having an impact on food quality. However, the basis of hardness and measurement of hardness are very general and would apply to any use of maize from any country. From the published literature, it would appear that one of the simpler methods used to measure hardness is a grinding step followed by a sieving step, using multiple sieve sizes. This would allow the range in hardness within a sample as well as average particle size and/or coarse/fine ratio to be calculated. Any of these parameters could easily be used as reference values for the development of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibrations. The development of precise NIR calibrations will provide an excellent tool for breeders, handlers, and processors to deliver specific cultivars in the case of growers and bulk loads in the case of handlers, thereby ensuring the most efficient use of maize by domestic and international processors. This paper also considers previous research describing the biochemical aspects of maize that have been related to maize hardness. Both starch and protein affect hardness, with most research focusing on the storage proteins (zeins). Both the content and composition of the zein fractions affect hardness. Genotypes and growing environment influence the final protein and starch content and. to a lesser extent, composition. However, hardness is a highly heritable trait and, hence, when a desirable level of hardness is finally agreed upon, the breeders will quickly be able to produce material with the hardness levels required by the industry.

Stream power criterion and design of sand bed channels at incipient motion

The critical stream power criterion may be used to describe the incipient motion of cohesionless particles of plane sediment beds. The governing equation relating ``critical stream power'' to ``shear Reynolds number'' is developed by using the present experimental data as well as the data from several other sources. Simultaneously, a resistance equation, relating the ``particle Reynolds number'' to the``shear Reynolds number'' is developed for plane sediment beds in wide channels with little or no transport. By making use of these relations, a procedure is developed to design plane sediment beds such that any two of the four design variables, including particle size, energy/friction slope, flow depth, and discharge per unit width in the channel should be known to predict the remaining two variables. Finally, a straightforward design procedure using design tables/design curves and analytical methods is presented to solve six possible design problems.

Defect Sensitization of Combustion and Thermal Decomposition of Ammonium Perchlorate: Effect of Pelletizing Pressure and Dwell Time

A systematic study was undertaken on the combustion and thermal decomposition of pelletized Ammonium Perchlorate (AP) to investigate the effects of pelletizing pressure and dwell time. At constant pressure, increasing the dwell time results in an increase in the burning rate up to a maximum and thereafter decreases it. The dwell time required for the pellets to have maximum burning rate is a function of pressure. The maximum burning rate is the same for all the pressures used and is also unaffected by increasing, to the range 90-250 μ, the particle size of AP used. In order to explain the occurrence of a maximum in burning rate, pellets were examined for their thermal sensitivities, physical nature and the changes occurring during pelletization with dwell time and pressure. The variations are argued in terms of increasing density, formation of defects such as dislocations leading to an increase in the number of reactive sites, followed by their partial annihilation at longer dwell times due to flow of material during pelletization.

Low-temperature preparation of fine-particle cobaltites

A novel solid-solution precursor method for the preparation of fine-particle cobaltites at low temperatures has been described. The precursors, hydrazinium metal hydrazine carboxylate hydrates, N2H5M1/3Co2/3(N2H3COO)3 · H2O, where M = Mg, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, and Zn, decompose in air <250°C to yield corresponding metal cobaltites, MCo2O4. Formation of cobaltites has been confirmed by thermogravimetry (TG) weight loss, IR, and X-ray diffraction. Combustion of the precursor in air yields fine-particle cobaltites with surface areas in the range of 12–115 m2g−1 and particle sizes of 1–40 μm. Low decomposition temperatures of the precursors accompanied by the evolution of large amounts of gases appear to control the particle size of the cobaltites.

The machinability of a cast aluminium alloy-graphite particle composite

The microstructure of a cast Al---Si alloy-graphite particle composite is examined using optical and analytical scanning electron microscopy. Specimens containing different percentages of graphite were machined by orthogonal planning with 25° and 45° rake angle tools at both 6.5 and 13.2 m min−1. The machining forces are reported and the chip-rake-face friction coefficients and shear flow stresses are calculated. It is shown that the reduction in machining forces with increasing graphite content is due mostly to a decrease in the shear flow stress rather than to lower chip-rake-face friction. Both the polished and the machined surfaces of the composite are rougher than those of the simple alloy, apparently owing to the greater porosity, the tearing out of graphite particles, or the opening of cracks at the graphite particles in the wake of the tool.

A novel combustion process for the synthesis of fine particle α-alumina and related oxide materials

Synthesis of fine particle α-alumina and related oxide materials such as MgAl2O4, CaAl2O4, Y3Al5O12 (YAG), Image , β′-alumina, LaAlO3 and ruby powder (Image ) has been achieved at low temperatures (500°C) by the combustion of corresponding metal nitrate-urea mixtures. Solid combustion products have been identified by their characteristic X-ray diffraction patterns. The fine particle nature of α-alumina and related oxide materials has been investigated using SEM, TEM, particle size analysis and surface area measurements.

Quantifying differences between treated and untreated coir substrate

The aim of this project was to quantify differences between treated and untreated coir (coconut industrial residues) products and to identify differences in growth, yield and quality of cut flowers grown in different coir products. This has been brought about largely by the concern that some coir products, washed in low quality (saline) water may have detrimental effects on plant productivity and quality. There is concern in the flower production industry and among media suppliers, that lower quality products are favoured due to price alone, which as this project shows is a false economy. Specifically the project examined: • Differences in physical and chemical properties of treated and untreated coir along with another commonly used growing media in the flower industy; • Potential improvements in yield and quality of Gerbera (Gerbera jamesonii); • Potential differences in vase life of Gerbera as a result of the different growing media; and • Cost-benefit implications of treated (more expensive) coir substrate products versus untreated (less expensive) coir including any subsequent differences in yield and quality. By first examining the physical and some chemical properties of different coir substrates and other industry standard media, the researchers have been able to validate the concerns raised about the potential quality issues in coir based growing media. There was a great deal of variation in both the electrical conductivity and sodium contents. Physical properties were also variable as expected since manufacturers are able to target the specific physical preferences of plants through manipulation of the particle size distribution. A field trial was conducted under protected cropping practices in which three growing media were compared in terms of total productivity and also flower quality parameters such as stem length, flower diameter and vase life. The trial was a completely randomised design with the three growing media comprising treated coir discs, untreated coir discs and a pine bark coir mix. Four cultivars of Gerbera were assessed: Balance®; Carambole®; Dune® and Picobello®, all new products from Florist de Kwakel B.V., Denmark. Initial expansion from tissue culture was conducted at the Highsun Express Facility, Ormiston, Queensland. The trial included 12 replications of each cultivar in each media (a total of 144 plants) to ensure all data collected, and the derived conclusions were statistically rigorous. The coir supplied with no pre-treatment or buffering produced significantly less flowers than those grown in a pine bark coir mix or the pre-treated coir. Interestingly, the pine bark coir mix produced a greater number of flowers. However, the flowers produced in the pine bark coir mix were generally a shorter length stem. Productivity data, combined with flower quality data and component costs were all analysed through a cost/benefit economic model which showed that the greater revenue from better stem length outweighed the stem numbers, giving a cost benefit ratio of 2.58 for treated coir, 2.49 for untreated coir and 2.52 for pine bark coir mix. While this does not seem a large difference, when considering the number of plants a producer maintains can be upwards of 50,000 the difference in revenue would be, at a minimum $60,000 in this example. In conclusion, this project has found that there are significant effects on plant health, growth, yield and quality between those grown in treated and untreated coir. The outcome being growers can confidently invest in more expensive treated products with the assurance that benefits will outweigh initial cost. It is false economy to favour untreated coir products based on price alone. Producers should ensure they fully understand the production processes when purchasing growing media. Rather than targeting lower priced materials, it is recommended that quality be the highest priority in making this management decision. In making recommendations for future research and development it was important to consider conclusions from other researchers as well as those of the current project. It has been suggested that the media has greater longevity, which although not captured in this study could also lead to further cost efficiencies. Assessment of the products over a longer time period, and using a wider range of plant species are the major recommendations for further research to ensure greater understanding as to the importance in choosing the right growing media to meet specific needs.