Observations of changes in marine boundary layer clouds

Recent research outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights the response of marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds to warming associated with increasing greenhouse gases as a major contributor to uncertainties in model projections of climate change. Understanding how MBL clouds respond to increasing temperatures is hampered by the relative scarcity of marine surface observations and the difficulty of retrieving accurate parameters remotely from satellites. In this study we combine data from surface observations with that from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), CloudSat and CALIPSO, with a view to investigating the spatial distribution and variations in MBL cloud fraction and cloud liquid water path (LWP). These results are then compared with the treatment of MBL clouds in the UK Met Office HadGEM models. Future work will assess how variations in LWP impact the top of atmosphere radiative energy balance using data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB), in order to quantify the response of MBL clouds on interannual timescales to a changing climate

U-series isochron dating of immature and mature calcretes as a basis for constructing Quaternary landform chronologies for the Sorbas basin, southeast Spain

Immature and mature calcretes from an alluvial terrace sequence in the Sorbas basin, southeast Spain, were dated by the U-series isochron technique. The immature horizons consistently produced statistically reliable ages of high precision. The mature horizons typically produced statistically unreliable ages but, because of linear trends in the dataset and low errors associated with each data point, it was still possible to place a best-fit isochron through the dataset to produce an age with low associated uncertainties. It is, however, only possible to prove that these statistically unreliable ages have geochronological significance if multiple isochron ages are produced for a single site, and if these multiple ages are stratigraphically consistent. The geochronological significance of such ages can be further proven if at least one of the multiple ages is statistically reliable. By using this technique to date calcretes that have formed during terrace aggradation and at the terrace surface after terrace abandonment it is possible not only to date the timing of terrace aggradation but also to constrain the age at which the river switched from aggradation to incision. This approach, therefore, constrains the timing of changes in fluvial processes more reliably than any currently used geochronological procedure and is appropriate for dating terrace sequences in dryland regions worldwide, wherever calcrete horizons are present. (c) 2005 University of Washington. All rights reserved.

Monitoring and modelling the three-dimensional flow of water under drip irrigation

The interpretation of soil water dynamics under drip irrigation systems is relevant for crop production as well as on water use and management. In this study a three-dimensional representation of the flow of water under drip irrigation is presented. The work includes analysis of the water balance at point scale as well as area-average, exploring uncertainties in water balance estimations depending on the number of locations sampled. The water flow was monitored by detailed profile water content measurements before irrigation, after irrigation and 24 h later with a dense array of soil moisture access tubes radially distributed around selected drippers. The objective was to develop a methodology that could be used on selected occasions to obtain 'snap shots' of the detailed three-dimensional patterns of soil moisture. Such patterns are likely to be very complex, as spatial variability will be induced for a number of reasons, such as strong horizontal gradients in soil moisture, variations between individual sources in the amount of water applied and spatial variability is soil hydraulic properties. Results are compared with a widely used numerical model, Hydrus-2D. The observed dynamic of the water content distribution is in good agreement with model simulations, although some discrepancies concerning the horizontal distribution of the irrigation bulb are noted due to soil heterogeneity. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Disabled access and heritage attractions

In a UK context, the importance of heritage tourism, the potential of the disabled market, and government policies concerning tourism, social inclusion, and the historic environment provide the setting within which access improvements at heritage attractions for disabled visitors are studied. At issue is how disabled access and conservation can be reconciled. The stakeholders range from the central actors, the disabled tourists and the heritage tourism service providers, through to the gatekeeper and lobby players in the conservation, disability, and tourism contexts. The critical power structures are identified. Changes to the historic environment are managed through the conservation planning system in which disability interests are not formally represented. Recent disability discrimination legislation has not altered this balance of power, and is a source of uncertainty over the access standards that should apply to heritage attractions. An evaluation of progress in implementing access improvements at heritage attractions reveals the limited extent of improvements undertaken to date. Consideration is given not only to physical access but also to alternative methods (intellectual access) of providing the heritage tourism service. In conclusion, the situation is examined from three perspectives. From the disabled tourists' perspective, choice of heritage attractions to visit remains restricted compared to that of nondisabled tourists. The lack of consultation with disabled stakeholders in the access improvements decision-making process is discussed, including the acceptability of alternative methods of service delivery to disabled tourists. The uncertainties facing heritage tourism service providers arising from the disability discrimination legislation are considered but, to ensure a more balanced recognition of disability interests, both conservation planning and disability discrimination legislation need to be amended, adjusting the roles of the legislative gatekeepers.

Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

A comparison of cross-hole electrical and seismic data in fractured rock

Cross-hole anisotropic electrical and seismic tomograms of fractured metamorphic rock have been obtained at a test site where extensive hydrological data were available. A strong correlation between electrical resistivity anisotropy and seismic compressional-wave velocity anisotropy has been observed. Analysis of core samples from the site reveal that the shale-rich rocks have fabric-related average velocity anisotropy of between 10% and 30%. The cross-hole seismic data are consistent with these values, indicating that observed anisotropy might be principally due to the inherent rock fabric rather than to the aligned sets of open fractures. One region with velocity anisotropy greater than 30% has been modelled as aligned open fractures within an anisotropic rock matrix and this model is consistent with available fracture density and hydraulic transmissivity data from the boreholes and the cross-hole resistivity tomography data. However, in general the study highlights the uncertainties that can arise, due to the relative influence of rock fabric and fluid-filled fractures, when using geophysical techniques for hydrological investigations.

Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring, modelling and policy implications

Rising nitrate levels have been observed in UK Chalk catchments in recent decades, with concentrations now approaching or exceeding legislated maximum values in many areas. In response, strategies seeking to contain concentrations through appropriate land management are now in place. However, there is an increasing consensus that Chalk systems, a predominant landscape type over England and indeed northwest Europe, can retard decades of prior nitrate loading within their deep unsaturated zones. Current levels may not fully reflect the long-term impact of present-day practices, and stringent land management controls may not be enough to avert further medium-term rises. This paper discusses these issues in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive, drawing on data from recent experimental work and a new model (INCA-Chalk) that allows the impacts of different land use management practices to be explored. Results strongly imply that timelines for water quality improvement demanded by the Water Framework directive are not realistic for the Chalk, and give an indication of time-scales over which improvements might be achieved. However, important unresolved scientific issues remain, and further monitoring and targeted data collection is recommended to reduce prediction uncertainties and allow cost effective strategies for mitigation to be designed and implemented. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale nitrogen model

There are now considerable expectations that semi-distributed models are useful tools for supporting catchment water quality management. However, insufficient attention has been given to evaluating the uncertainties inherent to this type of model, especially those associated with the spatial disaggregation of the catchment. The Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments model (INCA) is subjected to an extensive regionalised sensitivity analysis in application to the River Kennet, part of the groundwater-dominated upper Thames catchment, UK The main results are: (1) model output was generally insensitive to land-phase parameters, very sensitive to groundwater parameters, including initial conditions, and significantly sensitive to in-river parameters; (2) INCA was able to produce good fits simultaneously to the available flow, nitrate and ammonium in-river data sets; (3) representing parameters as heterogeneous over the catchment (206 calibrated parameters) rather than homogeneous (24 calibrated parameters) produced a significant improvement in fit to nitrate but no significant improvement to flow and caused a deterioration in ammonium performance; (4) the analysis indicated that calibrating the flow-related parameters first, then calibrating the remaining parameters (as opposed to calibrating all parameters together) was not a sensible strategy in this case; (5) even the parameters to which the model output was most sensitive suffered from high uncertainty due to spatial inconsistencies in the estimated optimum values, parameter equifinality and the sampling error associated with the calibration method; (6) soil and groundwater nutrient and flow data are needed to reduce. uncertainty in initial conditions, residence times and nitrogen transformation parameters, and long-term historic data are needed so that key responses to changes in land-use management can be assimilated. The results indicate the general, difficulty of reconciling the questions which catchment nutrient models are expected to answer with typically limited data sets and limited knowledge about suitable model structures. The results demonstrate the importance of analysing semi-distributed model uncertainties prior to model application, and illustrate the value and limitations of using Monte Carlo-based methods for doing so. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Record of natural and anthropogenic changes in reef environments (Barbados West Indies) using laser ablation ICP-MS and sclerochronology on coral cores

Coral growth rate can be affected by environmental parameters such as seawater temperature, depth, and light intensity. The natural reef environment is also disturbed by human influences such as anthropogenic pollutants, which in Barbados are released close to the reefs. Here we describe a relatively new method of assessing the history of pollution and explain how these effects have influenced the coral communities off the west coast of Barbados. We evaluate the relative impact of both anthropogenic pollutants and natural stresses. Sclerochronology documents framework and skeletal growth rate and records pollution history (recorded as reduced growth) for a suite of sampled Montastraea annularis coral cores. X-radiography shows annual growth band patterns of the corals extending back over several decades and indicates significantly lower growth rate in polluted sites. Results using laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) on the whole sample (aragonite, organic matter, trapped particulate matter, etc.), have shown contrasting concentrations of the trace elements (Cu, Sn, Zn, and Pb) between corals at different locations and within a single coral. Deepwater corals 7 km apart, record different levels of Pb and Sn, suggesting that a current transported the metal pollution in the water. In addition, the 1995 hurricanes are associated with anomalous values for Sn and Cu from most sites. These are believed to result from dispersion of nearshore polluted water. We compared the concentrations of trace elements in the coral growth of particular years to those in the relevant contemporaneous seawater. Mean values for the concentration factor in the coral, relative to the water, ranged from 10 for Cu and Ni to 2.4 and 0.7 for Cd and Zn, respectively. Although the uncertainties are large (60-80%), the coral record enabled us to demonstrate the possibility of calculating a history of seawater pollution for these elements from the 1940s to 1997. Our values were much higher than those obtained from analysis of carefully cleaned coral aragonite; they demonstrate the incorporation of more contamination including that from particulate material as well as dissolved metals.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (A) literature review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a "compensation of errors" mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a "pedigree" classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.

Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (B) acidity mass balance critical loads on a sensitive site

This paper reports an uncertainty analysis of critical loads for acid deposition for a site in southern England, using the Steady State Mass Balance Model. The uncertainty bounds, distribution type and correlation structure for each of the 18 input parameters was considered explicitly, and overall uncertainty estimated by Monte Carlo methods. Estimates of deposition uncertainty were made from measured data and an atmospheric dispersion model, and hence the uncertainty in exceedance could also be calculated. The uncertainties of the calculated critical loads were generally much lower than those of the input parameters due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism - coefficients of variation ranged from 13% for CLmaxN to 37% for CL(A). With 1990 deposition, the probability that the critical load was exceeded was > 0.99; to reduce this probability to 0.50, a 63% reduction in deposition is required; to 0.05, an 82% reduction. With 1997 deposition, which was lower than that in 1990, exceedance probabilities declined and uncertainties in exceedance narrowed as deposition uncertainty had less effect. The parameters contributing most to the uncertainty in critical loads were weathering rates, base cation uptake rates, and choice of critical chemical value, indicating possible research priorities. However, the different critical load parameters were to some extent sensitive to different input parameters. The application of such probabilistic results to environmental regulation is discussed.

Estimating uncertainty in terrestrial critical loads and their exceedances at four sites in the UK

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe and elsewhere. They are assessed by several elaborate and ingenious models, each of which requires many parameters, and have to be applied on a spatially-distributed basis. Often the values of the input parameters are poorly known, calling into question the validity of the calculated critical loads. This paper attempts to quantify the uncertainty in the critical loads due to this "parameter uncertainty", using examples from the UK. Models used for calculating critical loads for deposition of acidity and nitrogen in forest and heathland ecosystems were tested at four contrasting sites. Uncertainty was assessed by Monte Carlo methods. Each input parameter or variable was assigned a value, range and distribution in an objective a fashion as possible. Each model was run 5000 times at each site using parameters sampled from these input distributions. Output distributions of various critical load parameters were calculated. The results were surprising. Confidence limits of the calculated critical loads were typically considerably narrower than those of most of the input parameters. This may be due to a "compensation of errors" mechanism. The range of possible critical load values at a given site is however rather wide, and the tails of the distributions are typically long. The deposition reductions required for a high level of confidence that the critical load is not exceeded are thus likely to be large. The implication for pollutant regulation is that requiring a high probability of non-exceedance is likely to carry high costs. The relative contribution of the input variables to critical load uncertainty varied from site to site: any input variable could be important, and thus it was not possible to identify variables as likely targets for research into narrowing uncertainties. Sites where a number of good measurements of input parameters were available had lower uncertainties, so use of in situ measurement could be a valuable way of reducing critical load uncertainty at particularly valuable or disputed sites. From a restricted number of samples, uncertainties in heathland critical loads appear comparable to those of coniferous forest, and nutrient nitrogen critical loads to those of acidity. It was important to include correlations between input variables in the Monte Carlo analysis, but choice of statistical distribution type was of lesser importance. Overall, the analysis provided objective support for the continued use of critical loads in policy development. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

REMOTE SENSING OF AEOLIAN DUST PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION

Airborne dust is of concern due to hazards in the localities affected by erosion, transport and deposition, but it is also of global concern due to uncertainties over its role in radiative forcing of climate. In order to model the environmental impact of dust, we need a better knowledge of sources and transport processes. Satellite remote sensing has been instrumental in providing this knowledge, through long time series of observations of atmospheric dust transport. Three remote sensing methodologies have been used, and are reviewed briefly in this paper. Firstly the use of observations from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), secondly the use of the Infrared Difference Dust Index (IDDI) from Meterosat infrared data, thirdly the use of MODIS images from the rapid response system. These data have highlighted the major global sources of dust, mist of which are associated with endoreic drainage basins in deserts, which held lakes during Quaternary humid climate phases, and identified the Bodele Depression in Tchad as the dustiest place on Earth.

A sensitivity analysis of soil moisture retrieval from the t-w microwave emission model

The potential of the τ-ω model for retrieving the volumetric moisture content of bare and vegetated soil from dual polarisation passive microwave data acquired at single and multiple angles is tested. Measurement error and several additional sources of uncertainty will affect the theoretical retrieval accuracy. These include uncertainty in the soil temperature, the vegetation structure and consequently its microwave singlescattering albedo, and uncertainty in soil microwave emissivity based on its roughness. To test the effects of these uncertainties for simple homogeneous scenes, we attempt to retrieve soil moisture from a number of simulated microwave brightness temperature datasets generated using the τ-ω model. The uncertainties for each influence are estimated and applied to curves generated for typical scenarios, and an inverse model used to retrieve the soil moisture content, vegetation optical depth and soil temperature. The effect of each influence on the theoretical soil moisture retrieval limit is explored, the likelihood of each sensor configuration meeting user requirements is assessed, and the most effective means of improving moisture retrieval indicated.