Techniques to improve forecasting models: applications to energy demand and price

This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

Herbal medicines:physician's recommendation and clinical evaluation of St.John's Wort for depression

Why some physicians recommend herbal medicines while others do not is not well understood. We undertook a survey designed to identify factors, which predict recommendation of herbal medicines by physicians in Malaysia. About a third (206 out of 626) of the physicians working at the University of Malaya Medical Centre ' were interviewed face-to-face, using a structured questionnaire. Physicians were asked about their personal use of, recommendation of, perceived interest in and, usefulness and safety of herbal medicines. Using logistic regression modelling we identified personal use, general interest, interest in receiving training, race and higher level of medical training as significant predictors of recommendation. St. John's wort is one of the most widely used herbal remedies. It is also probably the most widely evaluated herbal remedy with no fewer than 57 randomised controlled trials. Evidence from the depression trials suggests that St. John's wort is more effective than placebo while its comparative efficacy to conventional antidepressants is not well established. We updated previous meta-analyses of St. John's wort, described the characteristics of the included trials, applied methods of data imputation and transformation for incomplete trial data and examined sources of heterogeneity in the design and results of those trials. Thirty randomised controlled trials, which were heterogeneous in design, were identified. Our meta-analysis showed that St. John's wort was significantly more effective than placebo [pooled RR 1.90 (1.54-2.35)] and [Pooled WMD 4.09 (2.33 to 5.84)]. However, the remedy was similar to conventional antidepressant in its efficacy [Pooled RR I. 0 I (0.93 -1.10)] and [Pooled WMD 0.18 (- 0.66 to 1.02). Subgroup analyses of the placebo-controlled trials suggested that use of different diagnostic classifications at the inclusion stage led to different estimates of effect. Similarly a significant difference in the estimates of efficacy was observed when trials were categorised according to length of follow-up. Confounding between the variables, diagnostic classification and length of trial was shown by loglinear analysis. Despite extensive study, there is still no consensus on how effective St. lohn's wort is in depression. However, most experts would agree that it has some effect. Our meta-analysis highlights the problems associated with the clinical evaluation of herbal medicines when the active ingredients are poorly defined or unknown. The problem is compounded when the target disease (e.g. depression) is also difficult to define and different instruments are available to diagnose and evaluate it.

Rayleigh noise mitigation in DWDM LR-PONs using carrier suppressed subcarrier-amplitude modulated phase shift keying

We demonstrate a novel Rayleigh interferometric noise mitigation scheme for applications in carrier-distributed dense wavelength division multiplexed (DWDM) passive optical networks at 10 Gbit/s using carrier suppressed subcarrier-amplitude modulated phase shift keying modulation. The required optical signal to Rayleigh noise ratio is reduced by 12 dB, while achieving excellent tolerance to dispersion, subcarrier frequency and drive amplitude variations.

Common variants in left/right asymmetry genes and pathways are associated with relative hand skill

Humans display structural and functional asymmetries in brain organization, strikingly with respect to language and handedness. The molecular basis of these asymmetries is unknown. We report a genome-wide association study meta-analysis for a quantitative measure of relative hand skill in individuals with dyslexia [reading disability (RD)] (n = 728). The most strongly associated variant, rs7182874 (P = 8.68×10-9), is located in PCSK6, further supporting an association we previously reported. We also confirmed the specificity of this association in individuals with RD; the same locus was not associated with relative hand skill in a general population cohort (n = 2,666). As PCSK6 is known to regulate NODAL in the development of left/right (LR) asymmetry in mice, we developed a novel approach to GWAS pathway analysis, using gene-set enrichment to test for an over-representation of highly associated variants within the orthologs of genes whose disruption in mice yields LR asymmetry phenotypes. Four out of 15 LR asymmetry phenotypes showed an over-representation (FDR≤5%). We replicated three of these phenotypes; situs inversus, heterotaxia, and double outlet right ventricle, in the general population cohort (FDR≤5%). Our findings lead us to propose that handedness is a polygenic trait controlled in part by the molecular mechanisms that establish LR body asymmetry early in development. © 2013 Brandler et al.

Does post-caesarean dyspareunia reflect sexual malfunction, pelvic floor and perineal dysfunction?

The aim was to define post-caesarean dyspareunia as a sexual and pelvic-perineal symptom. Post-caesarean (80 elective, 104 emergency) and 100 vaginally delivered primiparae had domiciliary interviews at 10 months postpartum. A total of 50 (28% and 27%) post-caesarean and 46 (46%) vaginally delivered, reported dyspareunia. Severely impaired general sexual health occurred in 82 (24% elective, 25% emergency, 35% vaginally delivered) as category 3 (dyspareunia with sexual symptoms) and 27 (10% elective, 7% emergency, 12% vaginally delivered) as category 4 (reduced frequency <6). The risk of dyspareunia (RR 1.14, CI 0.73, 1.77) or impaired general sexual health (RR 0.93, CI 0.32, 2.74) was similar among those with or without perineal trauma. Both caesarean and perineal scars were associated with sexual malfunction. Primiparae with new incontinence had a lower risk of dyspareunia than impaired general sexual health. Awareness of the associations of post-caesarean dyspareunia and impaired general sexual health with incontinence would facilitate appropriate obstetric decision-making. Further research is indicated. © 2011 Informa UK, Ltd.

Breakfast skipping is associated with cyberbullying and school bullying victimization:a school-based cross-sectional study

Breakfast skipping is a health concern that has well-known negative consequences physically and psychologically. It is therefore important to understand why children skip breakfast. The purpose of this study was to establish whether the experience of bullying and cyberbullying impacts upon breakfast skipping and to further evaluate whether the inability for youths to cope with bullying victimization affects their mental health (depression), and in turn predicts breakfast skipping. Data were obtained from the Eastern Ontario 2011 Youth Risk Behaviour Survey, a cross-sectional regional school-based survey of middle and high school students (11-20 years old) across the five counties of Eastern Ontario, Canada (N = 3035). Self-reported data about children's experiences of bullying victimization, breakfast eating habits, socio-economical status, depression, and other risk behaviours were analysed. Approximately half of the participants (50.4%) reported not eating breakfast on a regular basis: 26.3% and 24.1% reported often (usually eat breakfast three times or more per week) and frequent (usually eat breakfast twice a week or less) breakfast skipping behaviour, respectively. Victims of both cyberbullying and school bullying presented greater likelihood of often (adjusted relative risk ratio (RR) = 1.55; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17-2.06) and frequent (RR = 1.97; 95% CI = 1.28-3.03) breakfast skipping. Mediation analysis further showed that depression fully mediated the relationship between school bullying victimization and frequent breakfast skipping. Moreover, depression partially mediated the associations between both cyberbullying and school bullying with frequent breakfast skipping. These findings highlight the potential interrelationships between cyberbullying, school bullying and depression in predicting unhealthy breakfast skipping behaviour in children. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Structure of dysprosium and holmium phosphate glasses by the method of isomorphic substitution in neutron diffraction

The relative distribution of rare-earth ions R3+ (Dy3+ or Ho3+) in the phosphate glass RAl0.30P3.05O9.62 was measured by employing the method of isomorphic substitution in neutron diffraction and, by taking the role of Al into explicit account, a self-consistent model of the glass structure was developed. The glass network is found to be made from corner sharing PO4 tetrahedra in which there are, on average, 2.32(9) terminal oxygen atoms, OT, at 1.50(1) Å and 1.68(9) bridging oxygen atoms, OB, at 1.60(1) Å. The network modifying R3+ ions bind to an average of 6.7(1) OT and are distributed such that 7.9(7) R–R nearest neighbours reside at 5.62(6) Å. The Al3+ ion also has a network modifying role in which it helps to strengthen the glass through the formation of OT–Al–OT linkages. The connectivity of the R-centred coordination polyhedra in (M2O3)x(P2O5)1−x glasses, where M3+ denotes a network modifying cation (R3+ or Al3+), is quantified in terms of a parameter fs. Methods for reducing the clustering of rare-earth ions in these materials are then discussed, based on a reduction of fs via the replacement of R3+ by Al3+ at fixed total modifier content or via a change of x to increase the number of OT available per network modifying M3+ cation.

Wide wavelength selectable all-fiber thulium doped fiber laser between 1925 nm and 2200 nm

We demonstrate an all-fiber Tm3+-doped silica fiber laser operating at a wide selectable wavelength range by using different fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) as wavelength selection elements. With a specifically designed high reflective (HR) FBG and the fiber end as an output coupler, the lasing in the range from 1975 nm to 2150 nm with slope efficiency of >30% can be achieved. By employing a low reflective (LR) FBG as the output coupler, the obtainable wavelengths were extended to the range between 1925 nm and 2200 nm which is the reported longest wavelength from the Tm3+-doped silica fiber lasers. Furthermore, by employing a FBG array in the laser cavity and inducing bend loss between adjacent FBGs in the array, six switchable lasing wavelengths were achieved. © 2014 Optical Society of America.

More lr saturated L∞ spaces

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 05D10, 46B03.

100-Gb/s point-to-point solutions for long-reach passive optical networks in sparse rural and urban areas

Long reach-passive optical networks (LR-PON) are being proposed as a means of enabling ubiquitous fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) by massive sharing of network resources and therefore reducing per customer costs to affordable levels. In this paper, we analyze the chain solutions for LR-PON deployment in urban and rural areas at 100-Gb/s point-to-point transmission using dual polarization-quaternary phase shift-keying (DP-QPSK) modulation. The numerical analysis shows that with appropriate finite impulse response (FIR) filter designs, 100-Gb/s transmission can be achieved with at least 512 way split and up to 160 km total distance, which is sufficient for many of the optical paths in a practical situation, for point-to-point link from one LR-PON to another LR-PON through the optical switch at the metro nodes and across a core light path through the core network without regeneration.

Uncovering the root cause of ethnic difference in ability testing:differential test functioning, test familiarity and trait optimism as explanations of ethnic group differences

The present research represents a coherent approach to understanding the root causes of ethnic group differences in ability test performance. Two studies were conducted, each of which was designed to address a key knowledge gap in the ethnic bias literature. In Study 1, both the LR Method of Differential Item Functioning (DIF) detection and Mixture Latent Variable Modelling were used to investigate the degree to which Differential Test Functioning (DTF) could explain ethnic group test performance differences in a large, previously unpublished dataset. Though mean test score differences were observed between a number of ethnic groups, neither technique was able to identify ethnic DTF. This calls into question the practical application of DTF to understanding these group differences. Study 2 investigated whether a number of non-cognitive factors might explain ethnic group test performance differences on a variety of ability tests. Two factors – test familiarity and trait optimism – were able to explain a large proportion of ethnic group test score differences. Furthermore, test familiarity was found to mediate the relationship between socio-economic factors – particularly participant educational level and familial social status – and test performance, suggesting that test familiarity develops over time through the mechanism of exposure to ability testing in other contexts. These findings represent a substantial contribution to the field’s understanding of two key issues surrounding ethnic test performance differences. The author calls for a new line of research into these performance facilitating and debilitating factors, before recommendations are offered for practitioners to ensure fairer deployment of ability testing in high-stakes selection processes.

Reach extension of high-capacity LR-PONs in chain configuration of distributed amplifier structure

We show 100-Gb/s single-channel transmission in LR-PONs with at least 512 way split and up to 160 km total distance is feasible by means of "chained" cable with amplifier solutions, and appropriate FIR filter designs. © 2015 OSA.

Vállalati magatartás és túlélési esélyek a posztszocialista átmenetgazdaságban (Corporate behaviour and chances of survival in a post-socialist transitional economy)

A tanulmányban paneladatokra támaszkodva vizsgáljuk a hazai feldolgozóipari vállalkozások középtávú túlélési esélyeit befolyásoló tényezőket. A kutatás során az 1993-ban mintába került cégekhez tértünk vissza 2000-ben. Az adatok szerint az ágazat, a létszám és a kapacitáskihasználtság mellett a vezetői magatartás és a vállalati stratégia is érdemben befolyásolta a vállalatok fennmaradási esélyeit. Azok a szervezetek, amelyekben a vezetők 1993-ban úgy vélekedtek, hogy a gazdaságban a normaszegő magatartás sikerre számíthat, az átlagosnál kisebb valószínűséggel maradtak életben az évtized végére. Azok a vállalatok, amelyeknek vezetői a vizsgálat elején sikeresnek tartották cégüket, illetve amelyek már 1993-ban is inkább megoldó jellegű válságmenedzselési eszközöket alkalmaztak, nagyobb arányban maradtak fenn, mint azok, amelyek halasztó jellegű eszközökkel próbáltak úrrá lenni a transzformációs visszaesés okozta krízisen. ________ The study uses panel data to examine the factor affected medium-term changes in the chances of survival among Hungarian manufacturing firms. The researchers revisited in 2000 firms surveyed in a 1993 sample. The figures show firms survival chances vary essentially not only by industry, size of labour force and utilization of capacity, but according to managerial behaviour and corporate strategy. Those whose managers be-lieved in 1993 that behaviour breaching accepted norms would succeed in the economy had a lower than average likelihood of surviving until the end of the decade. The survival rate was higher among those whose managers thought they would be successful or were already applying crisis-management techniques of a remedial nature in 1993, than among those using delaying tactics to tackle a crisis caused by the transformational recession.

The impact of dieting status and restraint on post-exercise energy intake in overweight females

This study investigated the impact of an acute bout of physical activity on postexercise energy intake (PE-EI) in overweight females who were dieting with high restraint (D-HR) and non-dieting with either high restraint (ND-HR) or low restraint (ND-LR). PE-EI at lunch and 12-hours after was compared on the exercise (E) and a nonexercise (NE) day. There was a significant interaction (F (2,33)= 4.12, p = 0.025) of dieting/restraint status and condition (E vs. NE day) on the 12-hour El. The D-HR ate 519 ± 596 kcal more on the E than on the NE day; while the ND-HR ate 177 ± 392 kcal less on the E than on the NE day. The results of this study demonstrate that the impact of exercise on PE-EI is determined by both a physiological and psychological response. Dieting status, dietary restraint, level of disinhibition and cognitive factors may influence PE-EI and weight.

Seawater acidification affects the physiological energetics and spawning capacity of the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum during gonadal maturation

Ocean acidification is predicted to have widespread implications for marine bivalve mollusks. While our understanding of its impact on their physiological and behavioral responses is increasing, little is known about their reproductive responses under future scenarios of anthropogenic climate change. In this study, we examined the physiological energetics of the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum exposed to CO2-induced seawater acidification during gonadal maturation. Three recirculating systems filled with 600 L of seawater were manipulated to three pH levels (8.0, 7.7, and 7.4) corresponding to control and projected pH levels for 2100 and 2300. In each system, temperature was gradually increased ca. 0.3 °C per day from 10 to 20 °C for 30 days and maintained at 20 °C for the following 40 days. Irrespective of seawater pH levels, clearance rate (CR), respiration rate (RR), ammonia excretion rate (ER), and scope for growth (SFG) increased after a 30-day stepwise warming protocol. When seawater pH was reduced, CR, ratio of oxygen to nitrogen, and SFG significantly decreased concurrently, whereas ammonia ER increased. RR was virtually unaffected under acidified conditions. Neither temperature nor acidification showed a significant effect on food absorption efficiency. Our findings indicate that energy is allocated away from reproduction under reduced seawater pH, potentially resulting in an impaired or suppressed reproductive function. This interpretation is based on the fact that spawning was induced in only 56% of the clams grown at pH 7.4. Seawater acidification can therefore potentially impair the physiological energetics and spawning capacity of R. philippinarum.