The Effectiveness of the Clean Development Mechanism – A law and economics analysis

Climate change has been acknowledged as a threat to humanity. Most scholars agree that to avert dangerous climate change and to transform economies into low-carbon societies, deep global emission reductions are required by the year 2050. Under the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is the only market-based instrument that encourages industrialised countries to pursue emission reductions in developing countries. The CDM aims to pay the incremental finance necessary to operationalize emission reduction projects which are otherwise not financially viable. According to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, the CDM should finance projects that are additional to those which would have happened anyway, contribute to sustainable development in the countries hosting the projects, and be cost-effective. To enable the identification of such projects, an institutional framework has been established by the Kyoto Protocol which lays out responsibilities for public and private actors. This thesis examines whether the CDM has achieved these objectives in practice and can thus be considered an effective tool to reduce emissions. To complete this investigation, the book applies economic theory and analyses the CDM from two perspectives. The first perspective is the supply-dimension which answers the question of how, in practice, the CDM system identified additional, cost-effective, sustainable projects and, generated emission reductions. The main contribution of this book is the second perspective, the compliance-dimension, which answers the question of whether industrialised countries effectively used the CDM for compliance with their Kyoto targets. The application of the CDM in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is used as a case-study. Where the analysis identifies inefficiencies within the supply or the compliance dimension, potential improvements of the legal framework are proposed and discussed.

Rural governance and livelihoods systems diversification in the Western Balkans: comparative case studies of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia

Agriculture is still important for socio-economic development in rural areas of Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia (BMS). However, for sustainable rural development rural economies should be diversified so attention should be paid also to off-farm and non-farm income-generating activities. Agricultural and rural development (ARD) processes and farm activity diversification initiatives should be well governed. The ultimate objective of this work is to explore linkages between ARD governance and rural livelihoods diversification in BMS. The thesis is based on an extended secondary data analysis and surveys. Questionnaires for ARD governance and coordination were sent via email to public, civil society and international organizations. Concerning rural livelihood diversification, the field questionnaire surveys were carried out in three rural regions of BMS. Results show that local rural livelihoods are increasingly diversified but a significant share of households are still engaged in agriculture. Diversification strategies have a chance to succeed taking into consideration the three rural regions’ assets. However, rural households have to tackle many problems for developing new income-generating activities such as the lack of financial resources. Weak business skills are also a limiting factor. Fully exploiting rural economy diversification potential in BMS requires many interventions including improving rural governance, enhancing service delivery in rural areas, upgrading rural people’s human capital, strengthening rural social capital and improving physical capital, access of the rural population to finance as well as creating a favourable and enabling legal and legislative environment fostering diversification. Governance and coordination of ARD policy design, implementation and evaluation is still challenging in the three Balkan countries and this has repercussions also on the pace of rural livelihoods diversification. Therefore, there is a strong and urgent need for mobilization of all rural stakeholders and actors through appropriate governance arrangements in order to foster rural livelihoods diversification and quality of life improvement.

Regulatory T cell-mediated suppression of Th9 cell development and effector function

T helper (Th) 9 cells are an important subpopulation of the CD4+ T helper cells. Due to their ability to secrete Interleukin-(IL-)9, Th9 cells essentially contribute to the expulsion of parasitic helminths from the intestinal tract but they play also an immunopathological role in the course of asthma. Recently, a beneficial function of Th9 cells in anti-tumor immune responses was published. In a murine melanoma tumor model Th9 cells were shown to enhance the anti-melanoma immune response via the recruitment of CD8+ T cells, dendritic cells and mast cells. In contrast to Th9 effector cells regulatory T cells (Tregs) are able to control an immune response with the aid of different suppressive mechanisms. Based on their ability to suppress an immune response Tregs are believed to be beneficial in asthma by diminishing excessive allergic reactions. However, concerning cancer they can have a detrimental function because Tregs inhibit an effective anti-tumor immune reaction. Thus, the analysis of Th9 suppression by Tregs is of central importance concerning the development of therapeutic strategies for the treatment of cancer and allergic diseases and was therefore the main objective of this PhD thesis.rnIn general it could be demonstrated that the development of Th9 cells can be inhibited by Tregs in vitro. The production of the lineage-specific cytokine IL-9 by developing Th9 cells was completely suppressed at a Treg/Th9 ratio of 1:1 on the transcriptional (qRT-PCR) as well as on the translational level (ELISA). In contrast, the expression of IRF4 that was found to strongly promote Th9 development was not reduced in the presence of Tregs, suggesting that IRF4 requires additional transcription factors to induce the differentiation of Th9 cells. In order to identify such factors, which regulate Th9 development and therefore represent potential targets for Treg-mediated suppressive mechanisms, a transcriptome analysis using “next-generation sequencing” was performed. The expression of some genes which were found to be up- or downregulated in Th9 cells in the presence of Tregs was validated with qRT-PCR. Time limitations prevented a detailed functional analysis of these candidate genes. Nevertheless, the analysis of the suppressive mechanisms revealed that Tregs probably suppress Th9 cells via the increase of the intracellular cAMP concentration. In contrast, IL-9 production by differentiated Th9 cells was only marginally affected by Tregs in vitro and in vivo analysis (asthma, melanoma model). Hence, Tregs represent very effective inhibitors of Th9 development whereas they have only a minimal suppressive influence on differentiated Th9 cells.rn

Local Impacts of Unconventional Gas Development within Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale Region: Gauging Boomtown Development through the Perspectives of Educational Administrators

Using survey and interview data gathered from educators and educational administrators, we investigate school and community impacts of unconventional gas extraction within Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale region. Respondents in areas with high levels of drilling are significantly more likely to perceive the effects of local economic gains, but also report increased inequality, heightened vulnerability of disadvantaged community members, and pronounced strains on local infrastructure. As community stakeholders in positions of local leadership, school leaders in areas experiencing Marcellus Shale natural gas extraction often face multiple decision-making dilemmas. These dilemmas occur in the context of incomplete information and rapid, unpredictable community change involving the emergence of both new opportunities and new insecurities.

Effects of Landscape Segregation on Livelihood Vulnerability: Moving From Extensive Shifting Cultivation to Rotational Agriculture and Natural Forests in Northern Laos

This study investigates four decades of socio-economic and environmental change in a shifting cultivation landscape in the northern uplands of Laos. Historical changes in land cover and land use were analyzed using a chronological series of remote sensing data. Impacts of landscape change on local livelihoods were investigated in seven villages through interviews with various stakeholders. The study reveals that the complex mosaics of agriculture and forest patches observed in the study area have long constituted key assets for the resilience of local livelihood systems in the face of environmental and socio-economic risks. However, over the past 20 years, a process of segregating agricultural and forest spaces has increased the vulnerability of local land users. This process is a direct outcome of policies aimed at increasing national forest cover, eradicating shifting cultivation and fostering the emergence of more intensive and commercial agricultural practices. We argue that agriculture-forest segregation should be buffered in such a way that a diversity of livelihood opportunities and economic development pathways can be maintained.

Checking Assumptions in Latent Class Regression Models via a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation Approach: An Application to Depression and Socio-Economic Status

Latent class regression models are useful tools for assessing associations between covariates and latent variables. However, evaluation of key model assumptions cannot be performed using methods from standard regression models due to the unobserved nature of latent outcome variables. This paper presents graphical diagnostic tools to evaluate whether or not latent class regression models adhere to standard assumptions of the model: conditional independence and non-differential measurement. An integral part of these methods is the use of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation procedure. Unlike standard maximum likelihood implementations for latent class regression model estimation, the MCMC approach allows us to calculate posterior distributions and point estimates of any functions of parameters. It is this convenience that allows us to provide the diagnostic methods that we introduce. As a motivating example we present an analysis focusing on the association between depression and socioeconomic status, using data from the Epidemiologic Catchment Area study. We consider a latent class regression analysis investigating the association between depression and socioeconomic status measures, where the latent variable depression is regressed on education and income indicators, in addition to age, gender, and marital status variables. While the fitted latent class regression model yields interesting results, the model parameters are found to be invalid due to the violation of model assumptions. The violation of these assumptions is clearly identified by the presented diagnostic plots. These methods can be applied to standard latent class and latent class regression models, and the general principle can be extended to evaluate model assumptions in other types of models.

High level of extracellular potassium and its correlates after severe head injury: relationship to high intracranial pressure

OBJECT: Disturbed ionic and neurotransmitter homeostasis are now recognized as probably the most important mechanisms contributing to the development of secondary brain swelling after traumatic brain injury (TBI). Evidence obtained in animal models indicates that posttraumatic neuronal excitation by excitatory amino acids leads to an increase in extracellular potassium, probably due to ion channel activation. The purpose of this study was therefore to measure dialysate potassium in severely head injured patients and to correlate these results with measurements of intracranial pressure (ICP), patient outcome, and levels of dialysate glutamate and lactate, and cerebral blood flow (CBF) to determine the role of ischemia in this posttraumatic ion dysfunction. METHODS: Eighty-five patients with severe TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale Score < 8) were treated according to an intensive ICP management-focused protocol. All patients underwent intracerebral microdialyis. Dialysate potassium levels were analyzed using flame photometry, and dialysate glutamate and dialysate lactate levels were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography and an enzyme-linked amperometric method in 72 and 84 patients, respectively. Cerebral blood flow studies (stable xenon computerized tomography scanning) were performed in 59 patients. In approximately 20% of the patients, dialysate potassium values were increased (dialysate potassium > 1.8 mM) for 3 hours or more. A mean amount of dialysate potassium greater than 2 mM throughout the entire monitoring period was associated with ICP above 30 mm Hg and fatal outcome, as were progressively rising levels of dialysate potassium. The presence of dialysate potassium correlated positively with dialysate glutamate (p < 0.0001) and lactate (p < 0.0001) levels. Dialysate potassium was significantly inversely correlated with reduced CBF (p = 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: Dialysate potassium was increased after TBI in 20% of measurements. High levels of dialysate potassium were associated with increased ICP and poor outcome. The simultaneous increase in dialysate potassium, together with dialysate glutamate and lactate, supports the concept that glutamate induces ionic flux and consequently increases ICP, which the authors speculate may be due to astrocytic swelling. Reduced CBF was also significantly correlated with increased levels of dialysate potassium. This may be due to either cell swelling or altered vasoreactivity in cerebral blood vessels caused by higher levels of potassium after trauma. Additional studies in which potassium-sensitive microelectrodes are used are needed to validate these ionic events more clearly.

Elevated level of endothelin-1 in cerebrospinal fluid and lack of nitric oxide in basilar arterial plasma associated with cerebral vasospasm after subarachnoid haemorrhage in rabbits

BACKGROUND: The role of endothelin-1 (ET-1) and nitric oxide (NO) as two important mediators in the development of cerebral vasospasm (CVS) after subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) is controversial. The objective of this study was to determine whether local levels of ET-1 and NO in cerebral arterial plasma and/or in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are associated with the occurrence of CVS after SAH. METHODS: CVS was induced using the one-haemorrhage rabbit model and confirmed by digital subtraction angiography of the rabbits' basilar artery on day 5. Prior to sacrifice, local CSF and basilar arterial plasma samples were obtained by a transclival approach to the basilar artery. Systemic arterial plasma samples were obtained. ET-1 levels were determined by immunometric technique (pg/ml +/- SEM) and total nitrate/nitrite level spectrophotometrically (micromol/l +/- SEM). FINDINGS: Angiographic CVS was documented after SAH induction (n = 12, P < 0.05). The ET-1 level in CSF was significantly elevated by 27.3% to 0.84 +/- 0.08 pg/ml in SAH animals (n = 7) in comparison to controls (0.66 +/- 0.04 pg/ml, n = 7, P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in ET-1 levels in systemic and basilar arterial plasma samples of SAH animals compared to controls. A significant lack of local NO metabolites was documented in basilar arterial plasma after SAH (36.8 +/- 3.1 micromol/l, n = 6) compared to controls (61.8 +/- 6.2 micromol/l, n = 6, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that an elevated ET-1 level in CSF and local lack of NO in the basilar arterial plasma samples are associated with CVS after experimental SAH.