Short, medium and long term load forecasting model and virtual load forecaster based on radial basis neural networks

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be easily applied to short-term load forecasting (STLF) models for electric power distribution applications. However, they are not typically used in medium and long term load forecasting (MLTLF) electric power models because of the difficulties associated with collecting and processing the necessary data. Virtual instrument (VI) techniques can be applied to electric power load forecasting but this is rarely reported in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the modelling and design of a VI for short, medium and long term load forecasting using ANNs. Three ANN models were built for STLF of electric power. These networks were trained using historical load data and also considering weather data which is known to have a significant affect of the use of electric power (such as wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity). In order to do this a V-shape temperature processing model is proposed. With regards MLTLF, a model was developed using radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN). Results indicate that the forecasting model based on the RBFNN has a high accuracy and stability. Finally, a virtual load forecaster which integrates the VI and the RBFNN is presented.

On-line Emotion Recognition in a 3-D Activation-Valence-Time Continuum using Acoustic and Linguistic Cues

For many applications of emotion recognition, such as virtual agents, the system must select responses while the user is speaking. This requires reliable on-line recognition of the user’s affect. However most emotion recognition systems are based on turnwise processing. We present a novel approach to on-line emotion recognition from speech using Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks. Emotion is recognised frame-wise in a two-dimensional valence-activation continuum. In contrast to current state-of-the-art approaches, recognition is performed on low-level signal frames, similar to those used for speech recognition. No statistical functionals are applied to low-level feature contours. Framing at a higher level is therefore unnecessary and regression outputs can be produced in real-time for every low-level input frame. We also investigate the benefits of including linguistic features on the signal frame level obtained by a keyword spotter.

On the derived category of a regular toric scheme

Let X be a quasi-compact scheme, equipped with an open covering by affine schemes U s = Spec A s . A quasi-coherent sheaf on X gives rise, by taking sections over the U s , to a diagram of modules over the coordinate rings A s , indexed by the intersection poset S of the covering. If X is a regular toric scheme over an arbitrary commutative ring, we prove that the unbounded derived category of quasi-coherent sheaves on X can be obtained from a category of Sop-diagrams of chain complexes of modules by inverting maps which induce homology isomorphisms on hyper-derived inverse limits. Moreover, we show that there is a finite set of weak generators, one for each cone in the fan S. The approach taken uses the machinery of Bousfield–Hirschhorn colocalisation of model categories. The first step is to characterise colocal objects; these turn out to be homotopy sheaves in the sense that chain complexes over different open sets U s agree on intersections up to quasi-isomorphism. In a second step it is shown that the homotopy category of homotopy sheaves is equivalent to the derived category of X.

SoC memory hierarchy derivation from dataflow graphs

Hardware synthesis from dataflow graphs of signal processing systems is a growing research area as focus shifts to high level design methodologies. For data intensive systems, dataflow based synthesis can lead to an inefficient usage of memory due to the restrictive nature of synchronous dataflow and its inability to easily model data reuse. This paper explores how dataflow graph changes can be used to drive both the on-chip and off-chip memory organisation and how these memory architectures can be mapped to a hardware implementation. By exploiting the data reuse inherent to many image processing algorithms and by creating memory hierarchies, off-chip memory bandwidth can be reduced by a factor of a thousand from the original dataflow graph level specification of a motion estimation algorithm, with a minimal increase in memory size. This analysis is verified using results gathered from implementation of the motion estimation algorithm on a Xilinx Virtex-4 FPGA, where the delay between the memories and processing elements drops from 14.2 ns down to 1.878 ns through the refinement of the memory architecture. Care must be taken when modeling these algorithms however, as inefficiencies in these models can be easily translated into overuse of hardware resources.

Mid- to late-Holocene climate variability and anthropogenic impacts: multi-proxy evidence from Lake Bliden, Denmark

We conducted multi-proxy geochemical analyses (including measurements of organic carbon, nitrogen and sulphur stable isotope composition, and carbonate carbon and oxygen isotope composition) on a 13.5 m sediment core from Lake Bliden, Denmark, which provide a record of shifting hydrological conditions for the past 6,700 years. The early part of the stratigraphic record (6,700-5,740 cal year BP) was wet, based on delta O-18(carb) and lithology, and corresponds to the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Shifts in primarily delta O-18(carb) indicate dry conditions prevailed from 5,740 to 2,800 cal year BP, although this was interrupted by very wet conditions from 5,300 to 5,150, 4,300 to 4,050 and 3,700 to 3,450 cal year BP. The timing of the latter two moist intervals is consistent with other Scandinavian paleoclimatic records. Dry conditions at Lake Bliden between 3,450 and 2,800 cal year BP is consistent with other paleolimnological records from southern Sweden but contrasts with records in central Sweden, possibly suggesting a more northerly trajectory of prevailing westerlies carrying moisture from the North Atlantic at this time. Overall, fluctuating moisture conditions at Lake Bliden appear to be strongly linked to changing sea surface temperatures in the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian seas. After 2,800 cal year BP, sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, delta C-13(ORG), delta C-13(carb) and delta O-18(carb) indicate a major reduction on water level, which caused the depositional setting at the coring site to shift from the profundal to littoral zone. The Roman Warm Period (2,200-1,500 cal year BP) appears dry based on enriched delta O-18(carb) values. Possible effects of human disturbance in the watershed after 820 cal year BP complicate attempts to interpret the stratigraphic record although tentative interpretation of the delta O-18(carb), magnetic susceptibility, delta C-13(ORG), delta C-13(carb) and delta O-18(carb) records suggest that the Medieval Warm Period was dry and the Little Ice Age was wet.

Variation in RTN3 and PPIL2 Genes Does not Influence Platelet Membrane β-Secretase Activity or Susceptibility to Alzheimer’s Disease in the Northern Irish Population

beta-site amyloid precursor protein cleaving enzyme (BACE1) is the rate-limiting enzyme for production of beta-amyloid peptides (A beta), which are proposed to drive the pathological changes found in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Reticulon 3 (RTN3) is a negative modulator of BACE1 (beta-secretase) proteolytic activity, while peptidylprolyl isomerase (cyclophilin)-like 2 (PPIL2) positively regulates BACE1 expression. The present study investigated whether there was any association between genetic variation in RTN3 and PPIL2, and either risk for AD, or levels of platelet beta-secretase activity, in a large Northern Irish case-control sample. Four hundred and sixty-nine patients with a diagnosis of probable AD (NINCDS-ADRDA criteria) and 347 control individuals (MMSE > 28/30) were genotyped. SNPs in both genes were selected by downloading genotype data from the International HapMap Project (Phase II) and tags selected using multimarker approach in Haploview, where r (2) > 0.8 and LOD > 3.0. Non-synonymous SNPs of interest were also included. Genotyping was performed by Sequenom iPLEX and TaqMan technologies. Alleles, genotypes and multi-marker haplotypes were tested for association with AD, and platelet beta-secretase activities were measured for a subset of individuals (n = 231). Eight SNPs in RTN3 and 7 in PPIL2 were genotyped. We found no significant associations between allele, genotype or haplotype frequencies and risk of AD. Further, there was no effect of genotype on platelet membrane beta-secretase activity. We conclude that common or potentially functional genetic variation in these BACE1 interacting proteins does not affect platelet membrane beta-secretase activity or contribute to risk of AD in this population.

Notes on the Asymmetric Hydrogenation of Methyl Acetoacetate in Neoteric Solvents

Asymmetric hydrogenation of methyl acetoacetate to methyl (R)-3-hydroxybutyrate by [(R)-RuCl(binap)( p-cymen)] Cl has been studied in methanol-ionic liquid and methanol-dense CO(2) solvent systems. The ionic pairs triethylhexylammonium and 1-methylimidazolium with bis(trifluoromethane sulfonyl) imide and hexafluorophosphates were used. The role of ionic pairs on the kinetic parameters and (enantio) selectivity has been demonstrated. Although the CO(2) expanded methanol system suffered from a reduction in both reaction rate and product selectivity, this changed in the presence of water. The high selectivity of the optimized methanol-CO(2)-water-halide system was designed as a consequence of observed additive effects.

Control of the thickness of mesoporous titania films for application in multiphase catalytic microreactors

A new method of sol-gel polymer template synthesis of mesoporous catalytic thin films has been proposed which allows controlling the chemical nature of the film, the porosity, thickness and loading with an active species. The mesoporous films with a long-order structure can be obtained in a narrow range of surfactant-to-metal precursor molar ratios from 0.006 to 0.009. The catalytic film thickness was varied from 300 to 1000 nm while providing a uniform catalyst distribution with a desired catalyst loading (1 wt. % Au nanoparticles) throughout the film. The films were characterized by TEM, SEM, ethanol adsorption and contact angle measurements. The calcination of the as-synthesized films at 573 K reduced Ti4+ sites to Ti3+. A 300 nm thick Au-containing film showed an initial TOF of 1.4 s(-1) and a selectivity towards unsaturated alcohols as high as 90% in the hydrogenation of citral. Thicker films demonstrated a high selectivity towards the saturated aldehyde (above 55%) and a lower intrinsic catalytic activity (initial TOF of 0.7-0.9 s(-1)) in the absence of internal diffusion limitations.

Real-time error detection but not error correction drives automatic visuomotor adaptation

We investigated the role of visual feedback of task performance in visuomotor adaptation. Participants produced novel two degrees of freedom movements (elbow flexion-extension, forearm pronation-supination) to move a cursor towards visual targets. Following trials with no rotation, participants were exposed to a 60A degrees visuomotor rotation, before returning to the non-rotated condition. A colour cue on each trial permitted identification of the rotated/non-rotated contexts. Participants could not see their arm but received continuous and concurrent visual feedback (CF) of a cursor representing limb position or post-trial visual feedback (PF) representing the movement trajectory. Separate groups of participants who received CF were instructed that online modifications of their movements either were, or were not, permissible as a means of improving performance. Feedforward-mediated performance improvements occurred for both CF and PF groups in the rotated environment. Furthermore, for CF participants this adaptation occurred regardless of whether feedback modifications of motor commands were permissible. Upon re-exposure to the non-rotated environment participants in the CF, but not PF, groups exhibited post-training aftereffects, manifested as greater angular deviations from a straight initial trajectory, with respect to the pre-rotation trials. Accordingly, the nature of the performance improvements that occurred was dependent upon the timing of the visual feedback of task performance. Continuous visual feedback of task performance during task execution appears critical in realising automatic visuomotor adaptation through a recalibration of the visuomotor mapping that transforms visual inputs into appropriate motor commands.

Turning Asteroids into Comets with ELTs

It is clear that ELTs will be able to detect extremely weak outgassing from Solar system bodies via a number of different methods. Occultations will allow probing for outgassing around 20 km main-belt asteroids. Imaging can reveal dust emission rates of only milligrams/second in the inner solar system, while sublimation rates of gasses should be measurable down to gram/second levels. Suitable targets will be identified via the coming all-sky surveys, through both the classical dynamical Tisserand Invariant and long-baseline lightcurves. It is possible that using these methods, ELTs may allow the discovery of much more activity throughout the Solar system than is presently known.

ROSA: A High-cadence, Synchronized Multi-camera Solar Imaging System

The Rapid Oscillations in the Solar Atmosphere (ROSA) instrument is a synchronized, six-camera high-cadence solar imaging instrument developed by Queen's University Belfast. The system is available on the Dunn Solar Telescope at the National Solar Observatory in Sunspot, New Mexico, USA, as a common-user instrument. Consisting of six 1k x 1k Peltier-cooled frame-transfer CCD cameras with very low noise (0.02 -aEuro parts per thousand 15 e s(-1) pixel(-1)), each ROSA camera is capable of full-chip readout speeds in excess of 30 Hz, or 200 Hz when the CCD is windowed. Combining multiple cameras and fast readout rates, ROSA will accumulate approximately 12 TB of data per 8 hours observing. Following successful commissioning during August 2008, ROSA will allow for multi-wavelength studies of the solar atmosphere at a high temporal resolution.