On Managing Stochastic Decentralized Projects

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Essays on Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy and Currency Unions: Exploring the Role of Informality and Labor Mobility

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Earnings management in response to the introduction of the Australian gold tax

Earnings from gold mining in Australia remained tax-exempt for almost seven decades until January 1, 1991. In the early 1980s, rapid economic prosperity induced by escalated gold prices brought the Australian gold-mining industry under intense political scrutiny. Using a variant of the modified Jones model, this paper provides evidence of significant downward earnings management by Australian gold-mining firms, which is consistent with their attempts to mitigate political costs during the period from June 1985 to May 1988. In contrast, test of earnings management over a similar period in a control sample of Canadian gold-mining firms produced insignificant results. Further, empirical results are robust to several sensitivity tests performed. During the period from June 1988 to December 1990, the Australian firms were found to have engaged in economic earnings management. This is consistent with the sample firms' incentive of maximizing economic earnings immediately prior to the introduction of income tax on gold mining. The findings of this study help to understand the impact of earnings management on the efficient resource allocation in an economy. They also contribute toward understanding the linkage between regulation of accounting for special purposes and general-purpose financial. reporting.

Identifying critical components during information security evaluations

Electronic communications devices intended for government or military applications must be rigorously evaluated to ensure that they maintain data confidentiality. High-grade information security evaluations require a detailed analysis of the device's design, to determine how it achieves necessary security functions. In practice, such evaluations are labour-intensive and costly, so there is a strong incentive to find ways to make the process more efficient. In this paper we show how well-known concepts from graph theory can be applied to a device's design to optimise information security evaluations. In particular, we use end-to-end graph traversals to eliminate components that do not need to be evaluated at all, and minimal cutsets to identify the smallest group of components that needs to be evaluated in depth.

Economic Incentives to Conserve Wildlife on Private Lands: Analysis and Policy

Some believe that provision of private property rights in wildlife on private land provides a powerful economic incentive for nature conservation because it enables property owners to market such wildlife or its attributes. If such marketing is profitable, private landholders will conserve the wildlife concerned and its required habitat. But land is not always most profitably used for exploitation of wildlife, and many economic values of wildlife (such as non-use economic values) cannot be marketed. The mobility of some wildlife adds to the limitations of the private-property approach. While some species may be conserved by this approach, it is suboptimal as a single policy approach to nature conservation. Nevertheless, it is being experimented with, in the Northern Territory of Australia where landholders had a possibility of harvesting on their properties a quota of eggs and chicks of red-tailed black cockatoos for commercial sale. This scheme was expected to provide an incentive to private landholders to retain hollow trees essential for the nesting of these birds but failed. This case and others are analysed. Despite private-property failures, the long-term survival of some wildlife species depends on their ability to use private lands without severe harassment, either for their migration or to supplement their available resources, for example, the Asian elephant. Nature conservation on private land is often a useful, if not essential, supplement to conservation on public lands. Community and public incentives for such conservation are outlined.

Incentives and standards in agency contracts

This paper studies the structure of state-contingent contracts in the presence of moral hazard and multitasking. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the presence of multitasking to lead to fixed payments instead of incentive schemes are identified. It is shown that the primary determinant of whether multitasking leads to higher or lower powered incentives is the role that noncontractible outputs play in helping the agent deal with the production risk associated with the observable and contractible outputs. When the noncontractible outputs are risk substitutes and are socially undesirable, standards are never optimal. If the noncontractible outputs are socially desirable, standards are never optimal if the noncontractible outputs play a risk-complementary role.

Exploratory modelling of grinding pressure within a compressed particle bed

With increasing industry interest in high pressure roll grinding (HPGR) technology, there is a strong incentive for improved understanding of the nature of grinding pressure that exists in the interior of a compressed particle bed. This corresponds to the crushing region of the HPGR. The relationship between applied pressure (stress) to the particle bed and induced pressure (stress) within particles and at contact points between particles is of particular interest. A detailed parametric investigation is beyond the scope of this exploratory paper. However, this exploratory investigation does suggest some interesting behaviour. The compressed particle bed within an 80 turn diameter piston has been modelled using Particle Flow Code for three dimensions. PFC3D is a discrete element code. The total number of simulated particles was 1225 and 2450 for two beds of different thickness. Particle diameters were uniformly distributed between 4 and 4.5 mm. The results of the simulations show that stress intensity within the simulated particle beds and within the observed particles increased with increase of the applied stress. The intensity of the average vertical stress in the selected particles tended to be comparable with the intensity of the pressure applied to the surface of particle bed and was only occasionally higher. However, the stress at contact points between particles could be several times higher. In a real crusher, such high stress amplification at contacts will quickly decrease due to local crushing and a resultant increase the size of the contact area. Therefore, its significance is likely to be relatively small in an industrial context. The modelling results also suggest that failure within the particle bed will progress from the crushing surface towards the depth of the bed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymptomatic long-term survivors of coronary artery bypass surgery enjoy a quality of life equal to the general population

Background Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among long-term survivors of coronary artery bypass surgery is an important outcome that has been little studied at the population level. Methods A postal survey was conducted in 1999 to 2000 in patients 6 to 20 years after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery in Western-Australia. A random stratified sample of 2500 was drawn from 8910 patients who had their first CABG surgery in 1980 to 1993. Health-related quality of life was measured with Short Form 36 and EuroQol visual analogue scale. Results Response was 82% (n = 2061). Health-related quality of life declined with age and was similar for men and women, although scores for women were worse for physical functioning. Compared with Australian population norms, the age- and sex-standardized scores of survivors of CABG were generally worse, mainly in the physical domain. Reported angina at the time of follow-up (33%), symptoms of heart failure equivalent to New York Heart Association (NYHA) classes II to IV (34%), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension were associated with poorer HRQOL. For both men and women without angina or heart failure at follow-up, HRQOL was no different from that of the general population. Conclusion Overall, the quality of life among long-term survivors of CABG is worse than that of the general population, the difference being mainly attributable to recurrent symptoms and comorbidities. Quality of life for those without angina or heart failure at follow-up was equivalent to the population norms, providing an incentive to maximize efforts to abolish angina and ameliorate heart failure symptoms.

The new reinforcement sensitivity theory: Implications for personality measurement

In this article, we review recent modifications to Jeffrey Gray's (1973, 1991) reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST), and attempt to draw implications for psychometric measurement of personality traits. First, we consider Gray and McNaughton's (2000) functional revisions to the biobehavioral systems of RST Second, we evaluate recent clarifications relating to interdependent effects that these systems may have on behavior, in addition to or in place of separable effects (e.g., Corr 2001; Pickering, 1997). Finally, we consider ambiguities regarding the exact trait dimension to which Gray's It reward system corresponds. From this review, we suggest that future work is needed to distinguish psychometric measures of (a) fear from anxiety and (b) reward-reactivity-from trait impulsivity. We also suggest, on the basis of interdependent system views of RST and associated exploration using formal models, that traits that are based upon RST are likely to have substantial intercorrelations. Finally, we advise that more substantive work is required to define relevant constructs and behaviors in RST before we can be confident in our psychometric measures of them.

General practice in Australia 2020: "robust and ready" or "rudderless and reeling"?

The future role and structure of Australian general practice remains uncertain, despite a decade of seemingly constant change following the release of the National Health Strategy papers. Some of the suggested change strategies (such as rural Practice Incentive Payments and practice accreditation) have been implemented; others (such as general practitioner involvement with area health authorities in delivering national goals and targets for communities) still await attention. An overarching vision for our health care system in 2020 and general practice's role within it are still to be clearly enunciated. Australia is at variance with other Western countries, such as the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand, which have spent significant time refocusing their health systems to deal with an ageing population with an increased burden of chronic disease. Health bureaucrats and governments need to invest strategically in operational primary care now. This will require the active commitment of general practice's national bodies to articulate and actively promote a shared vision for Australian general practice.

The role of management incentives in successful information systems development and implementation

Because organizations are making large investments in Information systems (IS), efficient IS project management has been found critical to success. This study examines how the use of incentives can improve the project success. Agency theory is used to: identify motivational factors of project success, help the IS owners to understand to what extent management incentives can improve IS development and implementation (ISD/I). The outcomes will help practitioners and researchers to build on theoretical model of project management elements which lead to project success. Given the principal-agent nature of most significant scale of IS development, insights that will allow for greater alignment of the agent’s goals with those of the principal through incentive contracts, will serve to make ISD/I both more efficient and more effective, leading to more successful IS projects.

BIBLIOTECA VIRTUAL: UMA ANÁLISE DOS FATORES ANTECEDENTES DA INTENÇÃO DE USO DOS ESTUDANTES DO ENSINO SUPERIOR

Diversos estudos sobre a aceitação e o uso de tecnologias de informação têm sido realizados por diferentes modelos conceituais que buscam demonstrar a existência de fatores que influenciam a intenção e comportamento dos usuários sobre um determinado sistema de informação. Alguns aspectos que potencializam as intenções de uso podem ser fundamentais para que o indivíduo adote, ou não, uma determinada tecnologia. Este estudo analisou os fatores antecedentes que podem influenciar a intenção de uso da Biblioteca Virtual de uma Instituição de Ensino Superior (IES). Dentre os modelos conceituais que estudam a adoção de tecnologias de informação, optou-se nesta pesquisa pelo Modelo de Aceitação de Tecnologia (TAM) proposto por Davis (1986). Neste modelo ainda foram adicionadas as variáveis externas Estímulo Docente e Hábito a fim de ampliar o poder de explicação da intenção de uso dos usuários em questão. Através de uma abordagem de investigação quantitativa, os dados foram coletados por meio de um instrumento de pesquisa com obtenção de resposta de 406 questionários. Os resultados obtidos por esta pesquisa confirmam a influência de diversos fatores posicionados em diferentes dimensões e proporcionam conclusões relevantes à adoção da biblioteca virtual. Conclui-se que o Estímulo Docente influencia positivamente a Facilidade de Uso, Utilidade Percebida e o Habito dos alunos de graduação sobre a intenção de uso da Biblioteca Virtual. Com isso, constatou-se que a influência do professor torna-se um fator determinante na intenção de uso da biblioteca virtual, o que ressalta a importância da orientação e recomendação dos professores no uso desta ferramenta tecnológica. O estudo concluiu que a utilidade percebida revelou-se o fator que mais influencia a intenção de uso desta tecnologia, pois há a percepção de que, caso o aluno venha utilizar a biblioteca virtual, pode-se melhorar seu desempenho nos estudos, entre outros aspectos. O Hábito também pode influenciar à adoção da biblioteca virtual de forma paralela às percepções sobre os benefícios que podem ser obtidos com o uso desta tecnologia.

ASSOCIATIVISMO EMPRESARIAL ENTRE MICRO E PEQUENAS EMPRESAS: A EXPERIÊNCIA DO GRANDE ABC COM O PROJETO EMPREENDER (SEBRAE)

O associativismo empresarial aparece como forma de desenvolvimento regional, seja este econômico, social ou cultural, e é grande aliado para o surgimento e crescimento das micro e pequenas empresas. É um tema já vivenciado e estudado por vários países do mundo, entre eles europeus e especificamente italianos, mas ainda pouco estudado e conhecido no Brasil. A presente pesquisa objetivou analisar o associativismo empresarial entre micro e pequenas empresas (MPEs) na região do Grande ABC (GABC) pelo Projeto Empreender (SEBRAE) relacionando seus dados com os publicados do relatório 2003/5 de autoria do Observatório Europeu de estudos sobre pequenas e médias empresas europeias, analisando as formas de associativismo aqui ocorridas, além de identificar o perfil das empresas e empresários envolvidos no projeto. Para tal análise foram coletados dados de um total de 63 empresas do Projeto Empreender, nos núcleos de Santo André, São Caetano do Sul e Ribeirão Pires. Do GABC foram coletados dados utilizando o instrumento desenvolvido pelo Observatório Europeu de estudos sobre pequenas e médias empresas. A análise dos dados coletados no GABC em relação aos dados europeus se fez necessária para que pudessem ser encontrados pontos de divergências e convergências em cada uma das experiências, objetivando o aprendizado e evolução do tema. A escolha do GABC foi motivada pelo fato da região passar por mudanças no seu perfil econômico, passando de berço e grande pólo das grandes indústrias para um grande centro de pequenas empresas prestadoras de serviços. Após coleta e análise dos dados, percebeu-se que a experiência do GABC e a ocorrida na Itália se parecem em muitos aspectos, porém tem grandes diferenças estruturais. Enquanto o projeto europeu é de responsabilidade de um órgão da União Europeia, aqui o projeto é de autoria do SEBRAE e sofre grandes conflitos com as Associações Comerciais e Industriais (ACIs) da região quando o tema é custeio das despesas das pessoas e estrutura que envolve a implantação do projeto. Além disso, conclui-se que é necessária uma maior aproximação dos municípios com o projeto, tendo em vista que isto poderia ser fator de incentivo a entrada de novas empresas além de fator de aumento de seriedade do sistema. Mais dois dados merecem destaque. Primeiro o fato do Projeto Empreender ter pouca visibilidade regional, ou seja, ser muito pouco divulgado, e o fato da agência de desenvolvimento do GABC não ter aproximação alguma com o projeto. Por último, surgem dados no decorrer da pesquisa que rompem a barreira das teorias administrativas conhecidas, tais como a amizade como fator de associativismo. Portanto, os resultados obtidos com essa pesquisa apontam para a influência no incentivo ao desenvolvimento do processo associativista na região do GABC, além de servir como incentivador para a aproximação de outros atores sociais no processo.(AU)