Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

The Slow Search for Solutions: Lessons from Historical Energy Transitions by Sector and Service

28 p.

The Sustainability of `Sustainable´ Energy Use: Historical Evidence on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Renewable Energy

20 p.

Towards understanding the mixing characteristics of turbulent buoyant flows

This work proposes a new simulation methodology in which variable density turbulent flows can be studied in the context of a mixing layer with or without the presence of gravity. Specifically, this methodology is developed to probe the nature of non-buoyantly-driven (i.e. isotropically-driven) or buoyantly-driven mixing deep inside a mixing layer. Numerical forcing methods are incorporated into both the velocity and scalar fields, which extends the length of time over which mixing physics can be studied. The simulation framework is designed to allow for independent variation of four non-dimensional parameters, including the Reynolds, Richardson, Atwood, and Schmidt numbers. Additionally, the governing equations are integrated in such a way to allow for the relative magnitude of buoyant energy production and non-buoyant energy production to be varied.

The computational requirements needed to implement the proposed configuration are presented. They are justified in terms of grid resolution, order of accuracy, and transport scheme. Canonical features of turbulent buoyant flows are reproduced as validation of the proposed methodology. These features include the recovery of isotropic Kolmogorov scales under buoyant and non-buoyant conditions, the recovery of anisotropic one-dimensional energy spectra under buoyant conditions, and the preservation of known statistical distributions in the scalar field, as found in other DNS studies.

This simulation methodology is used to perform a parametric study of turbulent buoyant flows to discern the effects of varying the Reynolds, Richardson, and Atwood numbers on the resulting state of mixing. The effects of the Reynolds and Atwood numbers are isolated by looking at two energy dissipation rate conditions under non-buoyant (variable density) and constant density conditions. The effects of Richardson number are isolated by varying the ratio of buoyant energy production to total energy production from zero (non-buoyant) to one (entirely buoyant) under constant Atwood number, Schmidt number, and energy dissipation rate conditions. It is found that the major differences between non-buoyant and buoyant turbulent flows are contained in the transfer spectrum and longitudinal structure functions, while all other metrics are largely similar (e.g. energy spectra, alignment characteristics of the strain-rate tensor). Also, despite the differences noted between fully buoyant and non-buoyant turbulent fields, the scalar field, in all cases, is unchanged by these. The mixing dynamics in the scalar field are found to be insensitive to the source of turbulent kinetic energy production (non-buoyant vs. buoyant).

Understanding Public Support for Externality-Correcting Taxes and Subsidies: A Lab Experiment

31 p.

Understanding planet formation through high precision photometry and spectroscopy

From studies of protoplanetary disks to extrasolar planets and planetary debris, we aim to understand the full evolution of a planetary system. Observational constraints from ground- and space-based instrumentation allows us to measure the properties of objects near and far and are central to developing this understanding. We present here three observational campaigns that, when combined with theoretical models, reveal characteristics of different stages and remnants of planet formation. The Kuiper Belt provides evidence of chemical and dynamical activity that reveals clues to its primordial environment and subsequent evolution. Large samples of this population can only be assembled at optical wavelengths, with thermal measurements at infrared and sub-mm wavelengths currently available for only the largest and closest bodies. We measure the size and shape of one particular object precisely here, in hopes of better understanding its unique dynamical history and layered composition.

Molecular organic chemistry is one of the most fundamental and widespread facets of the universe, and plays a key role in planet formation. A host of carbon-containing molecules vibrationally emit in the near-infrared when excited by warm gas, T~1000 K. The NIRSPEC instrument at the W.M. Keck Observatory is uniquely configured to study large ranges of this wavelength region at high spectral resolution. Using this facility we present studies of warm CO gas in protoplanetary disks, with a new code for precise excitation modeling. A parameterized suite of models demonstrates the abilities of the code and matches observational constraints such as line strength and shape. We use the models to probe various disk parameters as well, which are easily extensible to others with known disk emission spectra such as water, carbon dioxide, acetylene, and hydrogen cyanide.

Lastly, the existence of molecules in extrasolar planets can also be studied with NIRSPEC and reveals a great deal about the evolution of the protoplanetary gas. The species we observe in protoplanetary disks are also often present in exoplanet atmospheres, and are abundant in Earth's atmosphere as well. Thus, a sophisticated telluric removal code is necessary to analyze these high dynamic range, high-resolution spectra. We present observations of a hot Jupiter, revealing water in its atmosphere and demonstrating a new technique for exoplanet mass determination and atmospheric characterization. We will also be applying this atmospheric removal code to the aforementioned disk observations, to improve our data analysis and probe less abundant species. Guiding models using observations is the only way to develop an accurate understanding of the timescales and processes involved. The futures of the modeling and of the observations are bright, and the end goal of realizing a unified model of planet formation will require both theory and data, from a diverse collection of sources.

Freshwater biological research in Mexico: A brief historical review

Apart from a couple of early papers in the 1600s, the development of freshwater biology as a science in Mexico began in the last century. Taxonomic studies were made especially on algae, aquatic insects, crustaceans, annelid worms and aquatic plants. The great impetus acquired by limnology in Europe and America in the first half of the 20th Century stimulated foreign researchers to come and work in Mexico. During this period the Instituto de Biologia, belonging to the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, was created in 1930. The Institute had a section of Hydrobiology that contributed to the limnological characterization of Mexican lakes and ponds. In 1962, the Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Biologico-Pesqueras was created to bring together the work of several institutes working on the native ichthyofauna, the restocking of reservoirs, and aquaculture.

Limnology in Argentina: An historical account

This short review includes major books, articles and episodes concerned with studies on inland waters that have affected the development of limnology in Argentina. It is divided into three periods; (1) an early period of protolimnologists; (2) a period previous to the present times, subdivided into a first stage from 1900 to 1938 and a second stage from 1938 to 1962; and (3) a period of integrated research.

Models of the Oxygen-Evolving Complex of Photosystem II

In the five chapters that follow, I delineate my efforts over the last five years to synthesize structurally and chemically relevant models of the Oxygen Evolving Complex (OEC) of Photosystem II. The OEC is nature’s only water oxidation catalyst, in that it forms the dioxygen in our atmosphere necessary for oxygenic life. Therefore understanding its structure and function is of deep fundamental interest and could provide design elements for artificial photosynthesis and manmade water oxidation catalysts. Synthetic endeavors towards OEC mimics have been an active area of research since the mid 1970s and have mutually evolved alongside biochemical and spectroscopic studies, affording ever-refined proposals for the structure of the OEC and the mechanism of water oxidation. This research has culminated in the most recent proposal: a low symmetry Mn₄CaO₅ cluster with a distorted Mn₃CaO₄ cubane bridged to a fourth, dangling Mn. To give context for how my graduate work fits into this rich history of OEC research, Chapter 1 provides a historical timeline of proposals for OEC structure, emphasizing the role that synthetic Mn and MnCa clusters have played, and ending with our Mn₃CaO₄ heterometallic cubane complexes.

In Chapter 2, the triarylbenzene ligand framework used throughout my work is introduced, and trinuclear clusters of Mn, Co, and Ni are discussed. The ligand scaffold consistently coordinates three metals in close proximity while leaving coordination sites open for further modification through ancillary ligand binding. The ligands coordinated could be varied, with a range of carboxylates and some less coordinating anions studied. These complexes’ structures, magnetic behavior, and redox properties are discussed.

Chapter 3 explores the redox chemistry of the trimanganese system more thoroughly in the presence of a fourth Mn equivalent, finding a range of oxidation states and oxide incorporation dependent on oxidant, solvent, and Mn salt. Oxidation states from Mn^II₄ to Mn^IIIMn^IV₃ were observed, with 1-4 O^2– ligands incorporated, modeling the photoactivation of the OEC. These complexes were studied by X-ray diffraction, EPR, XAS, magnetometry, and CV.

As Ca²⁺ is a necessary component of the OEC, Chapter 4 discusses synthetic strategies for making highly structurally accurate models of the OEC containing both Mn and Ca in the Mn₃CaO₄ cubane + dangling Mn geometry. Structural and electrochemical characterization of the first Mn₃CaO₄ heterometallic cubane complex— and comparison to an all-Mn Mn₄O₄ analog—suggests a role for Ca²⁺ in the OEC. Modification of the Mn₃CaO₄ system by ligand substitution affords low symmetry Mn₃CaO₄ complexes that are the most accurate models of the OEC to date.

Finally, in Chapter 5 the reactivity of the Mn₃CaO₄ cubane complexes toward O- atom transfer is discussed. The metal M strongly affects the reactivity. The mechanisms of O-atom transfer and water incorporation from and into Mn₄O₄ and Mn₄O₃ clusters, respectively, are studied through computation and ¹⁸O-labeling studies. The μ3-oxos of the Mn₄O₄ system prove fluxional, lending support for proposals of O^2– fluxionality within the OEC.

The Windermere perch and pike project: an historical review

This paper is an attempt to set the background, provide a brief history, review some of the Windermere perch and pike project's scientific achievements, note current developments and hopes for the future, and comment on some aspects of such long-term projects. The project was originally started in 1939 in order to provide fish in freshwater lakes which might be harvested to enhance the supplies of food in a country subject to blockade. Pike traps and gill-netting were trialed as fishing methods. Catch statistics are available from 1939 which can be used to study population dynamics or for modelling purposes. The author provides an overview of changes in the population dynamics of perch and pike but covers briefly other species like arctic charr and brown trout. Also covered are several aspects of the basic biology and ecology of the principal species involved.

Toward Understanding Astrophysical Phenomena

Fast radio bursts (FRBs), a novel type of radio pulse, whose physics is not yet understood at all. Only a handful of FRBs had been detected when we started this project. Taking account of the scant observations, we put physical constraints on FRBs. We excluded proposals of a galactic origin for their extraordinarily high dispersion measures (DM), in particular stellar coronas and HII regions. Therefore our work supports an extragalactic origin for FRBs. We show that the resolved scattering tail of FRB 110220 is unlikely to be due to propagation through the intergalactic plasma. Instead the scattering is probably caused by the interstellar medium in the FRB's host galaxy, and indicates that this burst sits in the central region of that galaxy. Pulse durations of order $\ms$ constrain source sizes of FRBs implying enormous brightness temperatures and thus coherent emission. Electric fields near FRBs at cosmological distances would be so strong that they could accelerate free electrons from rest to relativistic energies in a single wave period. When we worked on FRBs, it was unclear whether they were genuine astronomical signals as distinct from `perytons', clearly terrestrial radio bursts, sharing some common properties with FRBs. Recently, in April 2015, astronomers discovered that perytons were emitted by microwave ovens. Radio chirps similar to FRBs were emitted when their doors opened while they were still heating. Evidence for the astronomical nature of FRBs has strengthened since our paper was published. Some bursts have been found to show linear and circular polarizations and Faraday rotation of the linear polarization has also been detected. I hope to resume working on FRBs in the near future. But after we completed our FRB paper, I decided to pause this project because of the lack of observational constraints.

The pulsar triple system, J0733+1715, has its orbital parameters fitted to high accuracy owing to the precise timing of the central $\ms$ pulsar. The two orbits are highly hierarchical, namely $P_{\mathrm{orb,1}}\ll P_{\mathrm{orb,2}}$, where 1 and 2 label the inner and outer white dwarf (WD) companions respectively. Moreover, their orbital planes almost coincide, providing a unique opportunity to study secular interaction associated purely with eccentricity beyond the solar system. Secular interaction only involves effect averaged over many orbits. Thus each companion can be represented by an elliptical wire with its mass distributed inversely proportional to its local orbital speed. Generally there exists a mutual torque, which vanishes only when their apsidal lines are parallel or anti-parallel. To maintain either mode, the eccentricity ratio, $e_1/e_2$, must be of the proper value, so that both apsidal lines precess together. For J0733+1715, $e_1\ll e_2$ for the parallel mode, while $e_1\gg e_2$ for the anti-parallel one. We show that the former precesses $\sim 10$ times slower than the latter. Currently the system is dominated by the parallel mode. Although only a little anti-parallel mode survives, both eccentricities especially $e_1$ oscillate on $\sim 10^3\yr$ timescale. Detectable changes would occur within $\sim 1\yr$. We demonstrate that the anti-parallel mode gets damped $\sim 10^4$ times faster than its parallel brother by any dissipative process diminishing $e_1$. If it is the tidal damping in the inner WD, we proceed to estimate its tidal quantity parameter ($Q$) to be $\sim 10^6$, which was poorly constrained by observations. However, tidal damping may also happen during the preceding low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) phase or hydrogen thermal nuclear flashes. But, in both cases, the inner companion fills its Roche lobe and probably suffers mass/angular momentum loss, which might cause $e_1$ to grow rather than decay.

Several pairs of solar system satellites occupy mean motion resonances (MMRs). We divide these into two groups according to their proximity to exact resonance. Proximity is measured by the existence of a separatrix in phase space. MMRs between Io-Europa, Europa-Ganymede and Enceladus-Dione are too distant from exact resonance for a separatrix to appear. A separatrix is present only in the phase spaces of the Mimas-Tethys and Titan-Hyperion MMRs and their resonant arguments are the only ones to exhibit substantial librations. When a separatrix is present, tidal damping of eccentricity or inclination excites overstable librations that can lead to passage through resonance on the damping timescale. However, after investigation, we conclude that the librations in the Mimas-Tethys and Titan-Hyperion MMRs are fossils and do not result from overstability.

Rubble piles are common in the solar system. Monolithic elements touch their neighbors in small localized areas. Voids occupy a significant fraction of the volume. In a fluid-free environment, heat cannot conduct through voids; only radiation can transfer energy across them. We model the effective thermal conductivity of a rubble pile and show that it is proportional the square root of the pressure, $P$, for $P\leq \epsy^3\mu$ where $\epsy$ is the material's yield strain and $\mu$ its shear modulus. Our model provides an excellent fit to the depth dependence of the thermal conductivity in the top $140\,\mathrm{cm}$ of the lunar regolith. It also offers an explanation for the low thermal inertias of rocky asteroids and icy satellites. Lastly, we discuss how rubble piles slow down the cooling of small bodies such as asteroids.

Electromagnetic (EM) follow-up observations of gravitational wave (GW) events will help shed light on the nature of the sources, and more can be learned if the EM follow-ups can start as soon as the GW event becomes observable. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient time-domain algorithm capable of detecting gravitational waves (GWs) from coalescing binaries of compact objects with nearly zero time delay. In case when the signal is strong enough, our algorithm also has the flexibility to trigger EM observation {\it before} the merger. The key to the efficiency of our algorithm arises from the use of chains of so-called Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filters, which filter time-series data recursively. Computational cost is further reduced by a template interpolation technique that requires filtering to be done only for a much coarser template bank than otherwise required to sufficiently recover optimal signal-to-noise ratio. Towards future detectors with sensitivity extending to lower frequencies, our algorithm's computational cost is shown to increase rather insignificantly compared to the conventional time-domain correlation method. Moreover, at latencies of less than hundreds to thousands of seconds, this method is expected to be computationally more efficient than the straightforward frequency-domain method.