Comparison between artificial neural networks and maximum likelihood classification in digital soil mapping

Soil surveys are the main source of spatial information on soils and have a range of different applications, mainly in agriculture. The continuity of this activity has however been severely compromised, mainly due to a lack of governmental funding. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of two different classifiers (artificial neural networks and a maximum likelihood algorithm) in the prediction of soil classes in the northwest of the state of Rio de Janeiro. Terrain attributes such as elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature and compound topographic index (CTI) and indices of clay minerals, iron oxide and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), derived from Landsat 7 ETM+ sensor imagery, were used as discriminating variables. The two classifiers were trained and validated for each soil class using 300 and 150 samples respectively, representing the characteristics of these classes in terms of the discriminating variables. According to the statistical tests, the accuracy of the classifier based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) was greater than of the classic Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC). Comparing the results with 126 points of reference showed that the resulting ANN map (73.81 %) was superior to the MLC map (57.94 %). The main errors when using the two classifiers were caused by: a) the geological heterogeneity of the area coupled with problems related to the geological map; b) the depth of lithic contact and/or rock exposure, and c) problems with the environmental correlation model used due to the polygenetic nature of the soils. This study confirms that the use of terrain attributes together with remote sensing data by an ANN approach can be a tool to facilitate soil mapping in Brazil, primarily due to the availability of low-cost remote sensing data and the ease by which terrain attributes can be obtained.

Budgeting rockfall and modeling sedimentary delivery in torrent systems

This thesis is a compilation of projects to study sediment processes recharging debris flow channels. These works, conducted during my stay at the University of Lausanne, focus in the geological and morphological implications of torrent catchments to characterize debris supply, a fundamental element to predict debris flows. Other aspects of sediment dynamics are considered, e.g. the coupling headwaters - torrent, as well as the development of a modeling software that simulates sediment transfer in torrent systems. The sediment activity at Manival, an active torrent system of the northern French Alps, was investigated using terrestrial laser scanning and supplemented with geostructural investigations and a survey of sediment transferred in the main torrent. A full year of sediment flux could be observed, which coincided with two debris flows and several bedload transport events. This study revealed that both debris flows generated in the torrent and were preceded in time by recharge of material from the headwaters. Debris production occurred mostly during winter - early spring time and was caused by large slope failures. Sediment transfers were more puzzling, occurring almost exclusively in early spring subordinated to runoffconditions and in autumn during long rainfall. Intense rainstorms in summer did not affect debris storage that seems to rely on the stability of debris deposits. The morpho-geological implication in debris supply was evaluated using DEM and field surveys. A slope angle-based classification of topography could characterize the mode of debris production and transfer. A slope stability analysis derived from the structures in rock mass could assess susceptibility to failure. The modeled rockfall source areas included more than 97% of the recorded events and the sediment budgets appeared to be correlated to the density of potential slope failure. This work showed that the analysis of process-related terrain morphology and of susceptibility to slope failure document the sediment dynamics to quantitatively assess erosion zones leading to debris flow activity. The development of erosional landforms was evaluated by analyzing their geometry with the orientations of potential rock slope failure and with the direction of the maximum joint frequency. Structure in rock mass, but in particular wedge failure and the dominant discontinuities, appear as a first-order control of erosional mechanisms affecting bedrock- dominated catchment. They represent some weaknesses that are exploited primarily by mass wasting processes and erosion, promoting not only the initiation of rock couloirs and gullies, but also their propagation. Incorporating the geological control in geomorphic processes contributes to better understand the landscape evolution of active catchments. A sediment flux algorithm was implemented in a sediment cascade model that discretizes the torrent catchment in channel reaches and individual process-response systems. Each conceptual element includes in simple manner geomorphological and sediment flux information derived from GIS complemented with field mapping. This tool enables to simulate sediment transfers in channels considering evolving debris supply and conveyance, and helps reducing the uncertainty inherent to sediment budget prediction in torrent systems. Cette thèse est un recueil de projets d'études des processus de recharges sédimentaires des chenaux torrentiels. Ces travaux, réalisés lorsque j'étais employé à l'Université de Lausanne, se concentrent sur les implications géologiques et morphologiques des bassins dans l'apport de sédiments, élément fondamental dans la prédiction de laves torrentielles. D'autres aspects de dynamique sédimentaire ont été abordés, p. ex. le couplage torrent - bassin, ainsi qu'un modèle de simulation du transfert sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel. L'activité sédimentaire du Manival, un système torrentiel actif des Alpes françaises, a été étudiée par relevés au laser scanner terrestre et complétée par une étude géostructurale ainsi qu'un suivi du transfert en sédiments du torrent. Une année de flux sédimentaire a pu être observée, coïncidant avec deux laves torrentielles et plusieurs phénomènes de charriages. Cette étude a révélé que les laves s'étaient générées dans le torrent et étaient précédées par une recharge de débris depuis les versants. La production de débris s'est passée principalement en l'hiver - début du printemps, causée par de grandes ruptures de pentes. Le transfert était plus étrange, se produisant presque exclusivement au début du printemps subordonné aux conditions d'écoulement et en automne lors de longues pluies. Les orages d'été n'affectèrent guère les dépôts, qui semblent dépendre de leur stabilité. Les implications morpho-géologiques dans l'apport sédimentaire ont été évaluées à l'aide de MNT et études de terrain. Une classification de la topographie basée sur la pente a permis de charactériser le mode de production et transfert. Une analyse de stabilité de pente à partir des structures de roches a permis d'estimer la susceptibilité à la rupture. Les zones sources modélisées comprennent plus de 97% des chutes de blocs observées et les bilans sédimentaires sont corrélés à la densité de ruptures potentielles. Ce travail d'analyses des morphologies du terrain et de susceptibilité à la rupture documente la dynamique sédimentaire pour l'estimation quantitative des zones érosives induisant l'activité torrentielle. Le développement des formes d'érosion a été évalué par l'analyse de leur géométrie avec celle des ruptures potentielles et avec la direction de la fréquence maximale des joints. Les structures de roches, mais en particulier les dièdres et les discontinuités dominantes, semblent être très influents dans les mécanismes d'érosion affectant les bassins rocheux. Ils représentent des zones de faiblesse exploitées en priorité par les processus de démantèlement et d'érosion, encourageant l'initiation de ravines et couloirs, mais aussi leur propagation. L'incorporation du control géologique dans les processus de surface contribue à une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution topographique de bassins actifs. Un algorithme de flux sédimentaire a été implémenté dans un modèle en cascade, lequel divise le bassin en biefs et en systèmes individuels répondant aux processus. Chaque unité inclut de façon simple les informations géomorpologiques et celles du flux sédimentaire dérivées à partir de SIG et de cartographie de terrain. Cet outil permet la simulation des transferts de masse dans les chenaux, considérants la variabilité de l'apport et son transport, et aide à réduire l'incertitude liée à la prédiction de bilans sédimentaires torrentiels. Ce travail vise très humblement d'éclairer quelques aspects de la dynamique sédimentaire en milieu torrentiel.

Effect of Wildlife Highway Warning Reflectors on Deer-Vehicle Accident, December 1984

he number of deer-vehicle accidents in Iowa and around the country has steadily increased during the past 30 years. This i s basically due to: ( 1 ) increased volume of traffic; 12) an expanding network of hard surface roads, especially 4 lane interstates; and (3) a general increase in deer populations. Initidtion of a 55 MPH speed limit in 1974 and gasoline shortages in 1975 reduced deer-vehicle accident rates briefly, but since 1975, rates have continued to climb. Various methods of reducinq these accidents have been attempted in other states. These include: instal lation of rc?flective devlres, deer crossing signs, fencing, underpasses, clearing right--of--waysa,n d controlled hunting to reduce deer population s i z e . These methods have met with varying degrees of success, depending on animal behavior, deet- population fluctuations, method used, topoyr-aphy, road-side vegetation, traffic patterns, and highway configuration. This project was designed to evaluate a new ntethod of reducing deer-vehicle accidents. There are qenerally 4 important aspects of deer-vehicle accidents: danger to human l i f e , vehicle damage, loss of a valuable wildlife resource, and cost of processing accident reports. In !owe, during 1983, there were over 15,OOC) reported deer--vehicle accidents and probably many more that were not reported (Gladfelter 1984). The extent of human injury or death in Iowa i s not known, but studies in southern Michigan show that human injur ies occurred in about 4% of the deer-vehicle accidents (A1 lcn and MrCullough 1976). T h i s would indicate that in Iowa there could have been 200 human injury cases from deer-vehicle accidents i n 1983. These injuries usual 1 occur from secondary collisions when motorists try to avoid a deer on the highway, and hit some other object Vehicle darnaye from these accidents can into thousands of dollars because of the high speed involved and the size of the animal. The total amount of vehicle damage occurring in Iowa is unknown, but if the average vehicle damage was between $500-$800 per accident, estimated property damage would be between $2 1/2--$4 million annually. The value of deer lost in these accidents cannot be estimated, but recreational potential of this natural resource is surely diminished for hunters and wildlife enthusiasts. Also, there ir a great deal of money spent by governmental agencies for manpower to process accident reports and remove dead animals from highways.

An adaptive multiscale method for density-driven instabilities

Accurate modeling of flow instabilities requires computational tools able to deal with several interacting scales, from the scale at which fingers are triggered up to the scale at which their effects need to be described. The Multiscale Finite Volume (MsFV) method offers a framework to couple fine-and coarse-scale features by solving a set of localized problems which are used both to define a coarse-scale problem and to reconstruct the fine-scale details of the flow. The MsFV method can be seen as an upscaling-downscaling technique, which is computationally more efficient than standard discretization schemes and more accurate than traditional upscaling techniques. We show that, although the method has proven accurate in modeling density-driven flow under stable conditions, the accuracy of the MsFV method deteriorates in case of unstable flow and an iterative scheme is required to control the localization error. To avoid large computational overhead due to the iterative scheme, we suggest several adaptive strategies both for flow and transport. In particular, the concentration gradient is used to identify a front region where instabilities are triggered and an accurate (iteratively improved) solution is required. Outside the front region the problem is upscaled and both flow and transport are solved only at the coarse scale. This adaptive strategy leads to very accurate solutions at roughly the same computational cost as the non-iterative MsFV method. In many circumstances, however, an accurate description of flow instabilities requires a refinement of the computational grid rather than a coarsening. For these problems, we propose a modified iterative MsFV, which can be used as downscaling method (DMsFV). Compared to other grid refinement techniques the DMsFV clearly separates the computational domain into refined and non-refined regions, which can be treated separately and matched later. This gives great flexibility to employ different physical descriptions in different regions, where different equations could be solved, offering an excellent framework to construct hybrid methods.

En torno a los efectos de la edad en el aprendizaje escolar de una lengua extrangera

The purpose of this article is to treat a currently much debated issue, the effects of age on second language learning. To do so, we contrast data collected by our research team from over one thousand seven hundred young and adult learners with four popular beliefs or generalizations, which, while deeply rooted in this society, are not always corroborated by our data.Two of these generalizations about Second Language Acquisition (languages spoken in the social context) seem to be widely accepted: a) older children, adolescents and adults are quicker and more efficient at the first stages of learning than are younger learners; b) in a natural context children with an early start are more liable to attain higher levels of proficiency. However, in the context of Foreign Language Acquisition, the context in which we collect the data, this second generalization is difficult to verify due to the low number of instructional hours (a maximum of some 800 hours) and the lower levels of language exposure time provided. The design of our research project has allowed us to study differences observed with respect to the age of onset (ranging from 2 to 18+), but in this article we focus on students who began English instruction at the age of 8 (LOGSE Educational System) and those who began at the age of 11 (EGB). We have collected data from both groups after a period of 200 (Time 1) and 416 instructional hours (Time 2), and we are currently collecting data after a period of 726 instructional hours (Time 3). We have designed and administered a variety of tests: tests on English production and reception, both oral and written, and within both academic and communicative oriented approaches, on the learners' L1 (Spanish and Catalan), as well as a questionnaire eliciting personal and sociolinguistic information. The questions we address and the relevant empirical evidence are as follows: 1. "For young children, learning languages is a game. They enjoy it more than adults."Our data demonstrate that the situation is not quite so. Firstly, both at the levels of Primary and Secondary education (ranging from 70.5% in 11-year-olds to 89% in 14-year-olds) students have a positive attitude towards learning English. Secondly, there is a difference between the two groups with respect to the factors they cite as responsible for their motivation to learn English: the younger students cite intrinsic factors, such as the games they play, the methodology used and the teacher, whereas the older students cite extrinsic factors, such as the role of their knowledge of English in the achievement of their future professional goals. 2 ."Young children have more resources to learn languages." Here our data suggest just the opposite. The ability to employ learning strategies (actions or steps used) increases with age. Older learners' strategies are more varied and cognitively more complex. In contrast, younger learners depend more on their interlocutor and external resources and therefore have a lower level of autonomy in their learning. 3. "Young children don't talk much but understand a lot"This third generalization does seem to be confirmed, at least to a certain extent, by our data in relation to the analysis of differences due to the age factor and productive use of the target language. As seen above, the comparably slower progress of the younger learners is confirmed. Our analysis of interpersonal receptive abilities demonstrates as well the advantage of the older learners. Nevertheless, with respect to passive receptive activities (for example, simple recognition of words or sentences) no great differences are observed. Statistical analyses suggest that in this test, in contrast to the others analyzed, the dominance of the subjects' L1s (reflecting a cognitive capacity that grows with age) has no significant influence on the learning process. 4. "The sooner they begin, the better their results will be in written language"This is not either completely confirmed in our research. First of all, we perceive that certain compensatory strategies disappear only with age, but not with the number of instructional hours. Secondly, given an identical number of instructional hours, the older subjects obtain better results. With respect to our analysis of data from subjects of the same age (12 years old) but with a different number of instructional hours (200 and 416 respectively, as they began at the ages of 11 and 8), we observe that those who began earlier excel only in the area of lexical fluency. In conclusion, the superior rate of older learners appears to be due to their higher level of cognitive development, a factor which allows them to benefit more from formal or explicit instruction in the school context. Younger learners, however, do not benefit from the quantity and quality of linguistic exposure typical of a natural acquisition context in which they would be allowed to make use of implicit learning abilities. It seems clear, then, that the initiative in this country to begin foreign language instruction earlier will have positive effects only if it occurs in combination with either higher levels of exposure time to the foreign language, or, alternatively, with its use as the language of instruction in other areas of the curriculum.

Promotion de l'activité physique au cabinet médical: où en sommes- nous en Suisse [Promotion of physical activity in the primary care setting: what is the situation in Switzerland?]

If many harmful effects of a sedentary lifestyle on health are well known, we still need to better understand how effectively promoting regular physical activity in the general population. Among the currently explored strategies, screening for sedentary lifestyle and promoting physical activity in the primary care setting seem promising. Despite recommendations from governmental agencies and professional associations in favor of physical activity counseling, this approach has not been widely adopted so far. This article summarizes the steps taken in Switzerland with an aim of developing physical activity counseling in the primary care setting. It describes how the early implication of primary care physicians influenced in a concrete way the development of a project dedicated to that task.

Effectiveness of a brief integrative multiple substance use intervention among young men with and without booster sessions.

Brief interventions (BI) commonly employ screening and target a single substance. Multi-substance interventions are a more adequate reflection of risk behaviors in adolescents and young adults. Systematic screening complicates BI in many settings. The effectiveness of a voluntary multi-substance intervention among 19-year-old men and the incremental impact of booster sessions were analyzed. Participants were enrolled during mandatory army conscription in Switzerland. Compared with 461 controls, 392 BI subjects showed reduced substance use on 10 of 12 measures (4 tobacco, 4 cannabis, and 2 alcohol measures). Between-group effects were small and non-significant (except for cannabis use prevalence). Three-month booster sessions were not effective and even contraindicated. The usefulness of targeting multi-substances during BIs without prior screening depends on the value of small effects. The addition of booster sessions was not effective and therefore is not recommended.

Magnetic coupling in the weac ferromagnet CuF2

CuF2 is known to be an antiferromagnetic compound with a weak ferromagnetism due to the anisotropy of its monoclinic unit cell (Dzialoshinsky-Moriya mechanism). We investigate the magnetic ordering of this compound by means of ab initio periodic unrestricted Hartree-Fock calculations and by cluster calculations which employ state-of-the-art configuration interaction expansions and modern density functional theory techniques. The combined use of periodic and cluster models permits us to firmly establish that the antiferromagnetic order arises from the coupling of one-dimensional subunits which themselves exhibit a very small ferromagnetic coupling between Cu neighbor cations. This magnetic order could be anticipated from the close correspondence between CuF2 and rutile crystal structures.

Towards better Olympic accountability

Ten years after the corruption scandal that shook the International Olympic Committee (IOC) in 1999, this article presents the current situation regarding accountability for this non-governmental organization based in Switzerland. The IOC is responsible for ensuring that the Olympic Games are held regularly, and since its foundation has endeavoured to promote sport without discrimination in service of sustainable human development and a better world. Olympic accountability is examined by means of four facets within a theoretical framework. The analysis of each of them shows that although considerable progress has been made by the IOC since 1999, improvements regarding accountability remain both possible and desirable. A mechanism for making improvements is proposed in the Conclusion.

Routine delivery of artemisinin-based combination treatment at fixed health facilities reduces malaria prevalence in Tanzania: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) has been promoted as a means to reduce malaria transmission due to their ability to kill both asexual blood stages of malaria parasites, which sustain infections over long periods and the immature derived sexual stages responsible for infecting mosquitoes and onward transmission. Early studies reported a temporal association between ACT introduction and reduced malaria transmission in a number of ecological settings. However, these reports have come from areas with low to moderate malaria transmission, been confounded by the presence of other interventions or environmental changes that may have reduced malaria transmission, and have not included a comparison group without ACT. This report presents results from the first large-scale observational study to assess the impact of case management with ACT on population-level measures of malaria endemicity in an area with intense transmission where the benefits of effective infection clearance might be compromised by frequent and repeated re-infection. METHODS: A pre-post observational study with a non-randomized comparison group was conducted at two sites in Tanzania. Both sites used sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) monotherapy as a first-line anti-malarial from mid-2001 through 2002. In 2003, the ACT, artesunate (AS) co-administered with SP (AS + SP), was introduced in all fixed health facilities in the intervention site, including both public and registered non-governmental facilities. Population-level prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia and gametocytaemia were assessed using light microscopy from samples collected during representative household surveys in 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006. FINDINGS: Among 37,309 observations included in the analysis, annual asexual parasitaemia prevalence in persons of all ages ranged from 11% to 28% and gametocytaemia prevalence ranged from <1% to 2% between the two sites and across the five survey years. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to adjust for age, socioeconomic status, bed net use and rainfall. In the presence of consistently high coverage and efficacy of SP monotherapy and AS + SP in the comparison and intervention areas, the introduction of ACT in the intervention site was associated with a modest reduction in the adjusted asexual parasitaemia prevalence of 5 percentage-points or 23% (p < 0.0001) relative to the comparison site. Gametocytaemia prevalence did not differ significantly (p = 0.30). INTERPRETATION: The introduction of ACT at fixed health facilities only modestly reduced asexual parasitaemia prevalence. ACT is effective for treatment of uncomplicated malaria and should have substantial public health impact on morbidity and mortality, but is unlikely to reduce malaria transmission substantially in much of sub-Saharan Africa where individuals are rapidly re-infected.

Socio-economic inequalities in reported depression in Spain : a decomposition approach

Recent evidence questions some conventional view on the existence of income-related inequalities in depression suggesting in turn that other determinants might be in place, such as activity status and educational attainment. Evidence of socio-economic inequalities is especially relevant in countries such as Spain that have a limited coverage of mental health care and are regionally heterogeneous. This paper aims at measuring and explaining the degree of socio-economic inequality in reported depression in Spain. We employ linear probability models to estimate the concentration index and its decomposition drawing from 2003 edition of the Spanish National Health Survey, the most recent representative health survey in Spain. Our findings point towards the existence of avoidable inequalities in the prevalence of reported depression. However, besides ¿pure income effects¿ explaining 37% of inequality, economic activity status (28%), education (15%) and demographics (15%) play also a key encompassing role. Although high income implies higher resources to invest and cure (mental) illness, environmental factors influencing in peoples perceived social status act as indirect path as explaining the prevalence of depression. Finally, we find evidence of a gender effect, gender social-economic inequality in income is mainly avoidable.

Incentives and promotion in wage hierarchies

Most of the large firms organization schemes consist in hierarchical structures of tiers with different wage levels. Traditionally the existence of this kind of organizations has been associated to the separation of productive and managerial or supervision tasks and to differences in the skills of the workers. However, many firms now employ workers with similar skills, and then the hierarchical structure can be related to an incentive scheme to ensure that workers supply effort. The model we present investigates how firm owners should determine the optimal wage distribution in order to maximize profits.

Simulation of interface dynamics across pore discontinuities

We study the dynamics of a water-oil meniscus moving from a smaller to a larger pore. The process is characterised by an abrupt change in the configuration, yielding a sudden energy release. A theoretic study for static conditions provides analytical solutions of the surface energy content of the system. Although the configuration after the sudden energy release is energetically more convenient, an energy barrier must be overcome before the process can happen spontaneously. The energy barrier depends on the system geometry and on the flow parameters. The analytical results are compared to numerical simulations that solve the full Navier-Stokes equation in the pore space and employ the Volume Of Fluid (VOF) method to track the evolution of the interface. First, the numerical simulations of a quasi-static process are validated by comparison with the analytical solutions for a static meniscus, then numerical simulations with varying injection velocity are used to investigate dynamic effects on the configuration change. During the sudden energy jump the system exhibits an oscillatory behaviour. Extension to more complex geometries might elucidate the mechanisms leading to a dynamic capillary pressure and to bifurcations in final distributions of fluid phases in porous