984 resultados para global climate modeling


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Despite its enormous extent and importance for global climate, the South Pacific has been poorly investigated in comparison to other regions with respect to chemical oceanography. Here we present the first detailed analysis of dissolved radiogenic Nd isotopes (epsilon-Nd) and rare earth elements (REEs) in intermediate and deep waters of the mid-latitude (~40°S) South Pacific along a meridional transect between South America and New Zealand. The goal of our study is to gain better insight into the distribution and mixing of water masses in the South Pacific and to evaluate the validity of Nd isotopes as a water mass tracer in this remote region of the ocean. The results demonstrate that biogeochemical cycling (scavenging processes in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific) and release of LREEs from the sediment clearly influence the distribution of the dissolved REE concentrations at certain locations. Nevertheless, the Nd isotope signatures clearly trace water masses including AAIW (Antarctic Intermediate Water) (average epsilon-Nd = -8.2 ± 0.3), LCDW (Lower Circumpolar Deep Water) (average epsilon-Nd = -8.3 ± 0.3), NPDW (North Pacific Deep Water) (average epsilon-Nd = -5.9 ± 0.3), and the remnants of NADW (North Atlantic Deep Water) (average epsilon-Nd = -9.7 ± 0.3). Filtered water samples taken from the sediment-water interface under the deep western boundary current off New Zealand suggest that boundary exchange processes are limited at this location and highlight the spatial and temporal variability of this process. These data will serve as a basis for the paleoceanographic application of Nd isotopes in the South Pacific.

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The global climate is changing rapidly and Arctic regions are showing responses to recent warming. Responses of tundra ecosystems to climate change have been examined primarily through short-term experimental manipulations, with few studies of long-term ambient change. We investigated changes in above- and belowground biomass of wet sedge tundra to the warming climate of the Canadian High Arctic over the past 25 years. Aboveground standing crop was harvested from five sedge meadow sites and belowground biomass was sampled from one of the sites in the early 1980s and in 2005 using the same methods. Aboveground biomass was on average 158% greater in 2005 than in the early 1980s. The belowground biomass was also much greater in 2005: root biomass increased by 67% and rhizome biomass by 139% since the early 1980s. Dominant species from each functional group (graminoids, shrubs and forbs) showed significant increases in aboveground biomass. Responsive species included the dominant sedge species Carex aquatilis stans, C. membranacea, and Eriophorum angustifolium, as well as the dwarf shrub Salix arctica and the forb Polygonum viviparum. However, diversity measures were not different between the sample years. The greater biomass correlated strongly with increased annual and summer temperatures over the same time period, and was significantly greater than the annual variation in biomass measured in 1980-1983. Increased decomposition and mineralization rates, stimulated by warmer soils, were likely a major cause of the elevated productivity, as no differences in the mass of litter were found between sample periods. Our results are corroborated by published short-term experimental studies, conducted in other wet sedge tundra communities which link warming and fertilization with elevated decomposition, mineralization and tundra productivity. We believe that this is the first study to show responses in High Arctic wet sedge tundra to recent climate change.

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Quasi-periodic variation in sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and sea-level pressure in the equatorial Pacific known as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important mode of interannual variability in global climate. A collapse of the tropical Pacific onto a state resembling a so-called 'permanent El Niño', with a preferentially warmed eastern equatorial Pacific, flatter thermocline, and reduced interannual variability, in a warmer world is predicted by prevailing ENSO theory. If correct, future warming will be accompanied by a shift toward persistent conditions resembling El Niño years today, with major implications for global hydrological cycles and consequent impacts on socioeconomic and ecological systems. However, much uncertainty remains about how interannual variability will be affected. Here, we present multi-annual records of climate derived from growth increment widths in fossil bivalves and co-occurring driftwood from the Antarctic peninsula that demonstrate significant variability in the quasi-biennial and 3-6 year bands consistent with ENSO, despite early Eocene (~50 Mya) greenhouse conditions with global average temperature -10 degrees higher than today. A coupled climate model suggests an ENSO signal and teleconnections to this region during the Eocene, much like today. The presence of ENSO variation during this markedly warmer interval argues for the persistence of robust interannual variability in our future greenhouse world.

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The Pliocene period is the most recent time when the Earth was globally significantly (~3°C) warmer than today. However, the existing pCO2 data for the Pliocene are sparse and there is little agreement between the various techniques used to reconstruct palaeo-pCO2. Moreover, the temporal resolution of the published records does not allow a robust assessment of the role of declining pCO2 in the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (INHG) and a direct comparison to other proxy records are lacking. For the first time, we use a combination of foraminiferal (delta11B) and organic biomarker (alkenone-derived carbon isotopes) proxies to determine the concentration of atmospheric CO2 over the past 5 Ma. Both proxy records show that during the warm Pliocene pCO2 was between 330 and 400 ppm, i.e. similar to today. The decrease to values similar to pre-industrial times (275-285 ppm) occurred between 3.2 Ma and 2.8 Ma - coincident with the INHG and affirming the link between global climate, the cryosphere and pCO2.