House price bubble estimations in Australia's capital cities with market fundamentals

This paper investigates the existence of house price bubbles in Australia's eight capital cities in recent years by using quantitative analyses including Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response and Chow forecast test. While interactions between house prices and market fundamentals are discussed in long-run and causal estimations, shocks from the market fundamentals to house prices are investigated in generalized impulse response analyses. Findings from estimating house price bubbles for eight capital cities suggest that there was an obvious house price bubble in Perth, while a slight house price bubble occurred in Sydney. In contrast, house prices in Adelaide and Darwin can be explained very well by market fundamentals, while house prices in Melbourne, Brisbane, Hobart and Canberra were undervalued in the study period.

Neoliberalising learning : generating alternate futures consciousness

Both educators and education policies have long claimed a role in preparing students for ‘the future’. This has been referred to as the rhetoric of futures in education, as the notion of a future is assumed, abstract and not articulated (Bateman 2010). Recent research indicates that teachers give little attention to futures thinking in interpreting and enacting curriculum documents. Only when their ‘futures consciousness’ was increased were they able to generate explicit alternate futures scenarios and make connections with learners (Bateman 2012). In light of international education policy agendas pressing countries to adopt economic competitiveness in national curriculum policies, the ‘future’ vision looks narrow and constrained. We argue that current educational reforms in Australia provide little scope to address the concept of multiple futures, which are significant in enabling citizens to shape and contribute in personal, local and global contexts.

Conceptualising challenges for teachers and learning futures

The assumption that all education prepares students for their futures is misguided. Rather, students are prepared, through curriculum and institutional practices for politically constructed notions of the future, which are often based on another assumption that what has worked in the past will continue to work in the future. This is evident in the absence of articulated futures within curriculum and other policy documents. This research showcases a critical ethnography which was undertaken in a Victorian primary school. The specific project focussed on the ways in which Year 5/6 classroom teachers reconceptualised curriculum to incorporate futures thinking as a result of ongoing professional learning and support. Through the use of analytical bracketing and post-analytic ethnomethodology for analysis across the data, the presenter proposes a conceptual model which highlights the complexity of this work as well as a theoretical explanation of why futures remains the missing dimension in education.

Volatility decomposition of Australian housing prices

This study examines the volatility pattern of Australian housing prices. The approach for this research was to decompose the conditional volatility of housing prices into a “permanent” component and a “transitory” component via a Component-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (C-GARCH) model. The results demonstrate that the shock impact on the short-run component (transitory) is much larger than the long-run component (permanent), whereas the persistence of transitory shocks is much less than permanent shocks. Moreover, both permanent and transitory volatility components have different determinants. The results provide important new insights into the volatility pattern of housing prices which has direct implications for investment in housing by owner-occupiers and investors.

Optimal hedge ration with moving least squares - an empirical study using Indian single stock futures data

The use of commodity, currency and stock index futures to hedge risky exposures in the underlying assets is well documented in financial literature. However single stock futures are a relatively new addition to the family of futures and as such, academic research on its use as a hedging tool is relatively thin. In this study we have explored the efficacy of two different methodological approaches that may be applied when hedging a long position in the underlying stock with a single stock future. We use daily trading data covering years 2002 to 2007 from the Indian market, where single stock futures have been really thriving in terms of volume of trade, to extract the optimal hedge ratios using both static OLS as well as 30-day, 60-day and 90-day moving least squares. The method of moving least squares has been in use by market practitioners for some time primarily as a trend analysis and charting tool. Our results indicate that the moving least squares approach outperforms the static OLS in terms of the hedging efficiency, which has been measured by the root mean square hedging error.

Hybrid neural-evolutionary model for electricity price forecasting

Evolving artificial neural networks has attracted much attention among researchers recently, especially in the fields where plenty of data exist but explanatory theories and models are lacking or based upon too many simplifying assumptions. Financial time series forecasting is one of them. A hybrid model is used to forecast the hourly electricity price from the California Power Exchange. A collaborative approach is adopted to combine ANN and evolutionary algorithm. The main contributions of this thesis include: Investigated the effect of changing values of several important parameters on the performance of the model, and selected the best combination of these parameters; good forecasting results have been obtained with the implemented hybrid model when the best combination of parameters is used. The lowest MAPE through a single run is 5. 28134%. And the lowest averaged MAPE over 10 runs is 6.088%, over 30 runs is 6.786%; through the investigation of the parameter period, it is found that by including future values of the homogenous moments of the instant being forecasted into the input vector, forecasting accuracy is greatly enhanced. A comparison of results with other works reported in the literature shows that the proposed model gives superior performance on the same data set.

Volatility spillover between New Zealand stock market returns and exchange rate changes before and after the 1997 Asian financial crisis

Researchers in the last decade have been investigating the interdependence of stock returns and exchange rate changes within the same economy. Kanas (2000) and Yang and Doong (2004) find that for the G-7 countries, in general, the volatility of the stock market spills over to the exchange rate market but that volatility spillovers from the exchange rate market to the stock market are insignificant. Chen, Naylor, and Lu (2004) find that NZ individual firm returns are significantly exposed to exchange rate changes. This study complements their work by investigating the volatility spillover between the stock market and the foreign exchange market within the NZ economy.

Volatility linkages and spillovers in stock and bond markets : some international evidence

This study investigates the transmission of market-wide volatility between the equity markets and bond markets of Japan, Germany, the U. K., and the U. S. To measure the volatility transmission, the BEKK- a decomposition approach to the multivariate GARCH (1,1) model, is used to examine the cross-market contemporaneous effect of information arrival. Our results suggest that within the domestic cross markets, the volatility transmission is undirectional from the stock market to the bond market. Evidence from international cross-market analysis is mixed, with strong evidence on volatility spillover among these international stock markets, but weak evidence between international stock and bond markets. In addition, there are significant bi-directional volatility transmissions between stock markets in Germany and the U. K., and between Germany and the U. S. The volatility transmissions among these markets suggest that the international diversification of bonds is not prevalent.