999 resultados para forecast evaluation
Resumo:
To compare two yeast identification methods, i. e, the manual and the VITEK mechanical methods, 62 clinical samples from hemocultures and animal sources were analyzed. After identification as Candida yeasts by the VITEK method, the strains were recharacterized using manual assimilation methods and sugar fermentation tests. Our findings reveal 58% concurrent identification between the two methods for animal strains, and 51% for human hemoculture strains.
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Use of antimicrobials for the treatment of gonorrhea started in 1930 with the utilization of sulfonamides. With the years other drugs were used for its treatment such as penicillin, tetracycline, spectinomycin, and others. Although highly specific in the beginning, these drugs, with time did not show anymore the expected therapeutic results because of aspects of chromosomal and plasmid-mediated resistance. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the susceptibility of Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains to six drugs used for its treatment (penicillin, tetracycline, cefoxitin, thiamphenicol, spectinomycin and ofloxacin) by the determination of minimal inhibitory concentrations of these drugs. We concluded that drugs, such as cefoxitin, thiamphenicol and spectinomycin still are excellent pharmacological agents for the treatment of gonorrhea. Penicillin, although still efficient, needs more attention regarding its use, as well as ofloxacin, because of the emergence of resistant strains. Tetracycline and its derivatives should be strongly contraindicated for the treatment of gonorrhea.
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The impact of atrial dispersion of refractoriness (Disp_A) in the inducibility and maintenance of atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been fully resolved. AIM: To study the Disp_A and the vulnerability (A_Vuln) for the induction of self-limited (<60 s) and sustained episodes of AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Forty-seven patients with paroxysmal AF (PAF): 29 patients without structural heart disease and 18 with hypertensive heart disease. Atrial effective refractory period (ERP) was assessed at five sites--right atrial appendage and low lateral right atrium, high interatrial septum, proximal and distal coronary sinus. We compared three groups: group A - AF not inducible (n=13); group B - AF inducible, self-limited (n=18); group C - AF inducible, sustained (n=16). Age, lone AF, hypertension, left atrial and left ventricular (LV) dimensions, LV systolic function, duration of AF history, atrial flutter/tachycardia, previous antiarrhythmics, and Disp_A were analysed with logistic regression to determine association with A_Vuln for AF inducibility. The ERP at different sites showed no differences among the groups. Group A had a lower Disp_A compared to group B (47+/-20 ms vs 82+/-65 ms; p=0.002), and when compared to group C (47+/-20 ms vs 80+/-55 ms; p=0.008). There was no significant difference in Disp_A between groups B and C. By means of multivariate regression analysis, the only predictor of A_Vuln was Disp_A (p=0.04). Conclusion: In patients with PAF, increased Disp_A represents an electrophysiological marker of A_Vuln. Inducibility of both self-limited and sustained episodes of AF is associated with similar values of Disp_A. These findings suggest that the maintenance of AF is influenced by additional factors.
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Cryptococcosis is a worldwide disease caused by the etiological agent Cryptococcus neoformans. It affects mainly immunocompromised humans. It is relatively rare in animals only affecting those that have received prolonged antibiotic therapy. The propolis is a resin that can present several biological properties, including antibacterial, antifungal and antiviral activities. The standard strain C. neoformans ATTC 90112 was used to the antifungal evaluation. The tests were realized with propolis ethanol extract (PEE) G12 in concentrations from 0.1 to 1.6 mg mL-1. The evaluation of MIC and MFC were done according to DUARTE (2002)5. The inhibitory effect of PEE G12 on the fungal growing was seen at the concentration of 0.2 mg mL-1 and 1.6 mg mL-1 was considered a fungicidal one.
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Eight tropical fruit pulps from Brazil were simultaneously characterised in terms of their antioxidant and antimicrobial properties. Antioxidant activity was screened by DPPH radical scavenging activity (126–3987 mg TE/100 g DW) and ferric reduction activity power (368–20819 mg AAE/100 g DW), and complemented with total phenolic content (329–12466 mg GAE/100 g DW) and total flavonoid content measurements (46–672 mg EE /100 g DW), whereas antimicrobial activity was tested against the most frequently found food pathogens. Acerola and açaí presented the highest values for the antioxidant-related measurements. Direct correlations between these measurements could be observed for some of the fruits. Tamarind exhibited the broadest antimicrobial potential, having revealed growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella sp. and Staphylococcus aureus. Açaí and tamarind extracts presented an inverse relationship between antibacterial and antioxidant activities, and therefore, the antibacterial activity cannot be attributed (only) to phenolic compounds.
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BACKGROUND: To optimize the noninvasive evaluation of bone remodeling, we evaluated, besides routine serum markers, serum levels of several cytokines involved in bone turnover. METHODS: A transiliac bone biopsy was performed in 47 hemodialysis patients. Serum levels of intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH; 1-84), total alkaline phosphatases (tAP), calcium, phosphate and aluminum (Al) were measured. Circulating levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) and soluble IL-6 receptor (sIL-6r) were determined using ELISA. Circulating IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12p70 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) were simultaneously quantified by flow cytometric immunoassay. RESULTS: Patients with low/normal bone formation rate (L/N-BFR) had significantly lower serum iPTH (p<0.001) and tAP (p<0.008) and significantly higher Al (p<0.025) than patients with high BFR. Serum calcium and phosphorus, however, did not differ (p=NS). An iPTH >300 pg/mL in association with tAP >120 U/L showed low sensitivity (58.8%) and low negative predictive value (44.0%) for the diagnosis of high BFR disease. An iPTH <300 pg/mL in association with normal or low tAP, <120 U/L, was associated with low sensitivity (66.7%) but high specificity (97.1%) for the diagnosis of L/N-BFR. Serum IL-1, IL-6, IL-12p70 and TNF-alpha were positively correlated with BFR, serum IL1-Ra and IL-10 with bone area, and by multiple regression analysis, tAP and IL-6 were independently predictive of BFR. CONCLUSIONS: Significant associations were found between several circulating cytokines and bone histomorphometry in dialysis patients. The usefulness of these determinations in the noninvasive evaluation of bone remodeling needs to be confirmed in larger dialysis populations.
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Diabetes mellitus is an epidemic multisystemic chronic disease that frequently is complicated by complex wound infections. Innovative topical antimicrobial therapy agents are potentially useful for multimodal treatment of these infections. However, an appropriately standardized in vivo model is currently not available to facilitate the screening of these emerging products and their effect on wound healing. To develop such a model, we analyzed, tested, and modified published models of wound healing. We optimized various aspects of the model, including animal species, diabetes induction method, hair removal technique, splint and dressing methods, the control of unintentional bacterial infection, sampling methods for the evaluation of bacterial burden, and aspects of the microscopic and macroscopic assessment of wound healing, all while taking into consideration animal welfare and the '3Rs' principle. We thus developed a new wound infection model in rats that is optimized for testing topical antimicrobial therapy agents. This model accurately reproduces the pathophysiology of infected diabetic wound healing and includes the current standard treatment (that is, debridement). The numerous benefits of this model include the ready availability of necessary materials, simple techniques, high reproducibility, and practicality for experiments with large sample sizes. Furthermore, given its similarities to infected-wound healing and treatment in humans, our new model can serve as a valid alternative for applied research.
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This study was undertaken in the municipality of Bananal, São Paulo, an endemic area for schistosomiasis with a prevalence under 10% and low parasite load among infected individuals. Our objective was to identify the clinical forms of schistosomiasis among 109 patients in whom the disease had been diagnosed through direct fecal analysis and who had been medicated with oxamniquine at the time of the Plan for the Intensification of Schistosomiasis Control Actions (1998-2000). These patients were submitted to an abdominal ultrasonography and fecal analysis by Kato-Katz method, four years, on average, after the end of the Plan. Five patients, whose abdominal ultrasound images were compatible with either peripheral or central periportal fibrosis and portal hypertension, were identified. None of the 109 patients presented Schistosoma mansoni eggs at fecal analysis. Ultrasonography is a sensitive, noninvasive diagnostic method that allows a better identification of the extent of liver involvement in schistosomiasis cases.
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Human Immunodeficiency Vírus Type 1 and 2 antibodies detection was performed in 457 dried whole blood spots samples (S&S 903). Q-Preven HIV 1+2 was the screening test used. The results were compared with the gold standard serum tests by ELISA (Cobas Core e Axsym HIV1/2 gO) and imunofluorescence was the definitive confirmatory test. The samples were obtained from the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceição in Porto Alegre, RS - Brazil, through whole blood transfer to filter paper card and sent to Caxias do Sul, RS - Brazil where the tests were performed. The dried whole blood spot stability was evaluated with two different panels. The first one was composed of five negative and five positive samples stored at room temperature, 4 ºC, -20 ºC and -70 ºC, while the second was composed of two negative and three positive samples stored at 37 ºC (humidity <50%). Each sample was screened every week for six weeks. These measurement results didn't show variation during the study period. The detected sensibility was 100%, specificity was 99.6%, the positive predictive value was 99.5% and negative predictive values were 100%. The results demonstrated high performance characteristics, opening a new perspective of dried whole blood spot utilization in HIV screening diagnosis.
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The aim of the present study is to evaluate cyst wall and protoscolex as an alternate source of antigen in serodiagnosis of cystic echinococcosis (CE). A total of 90 blood samples, 30 each of confirmed CE cases, disease controls and healthy controls were collected. Dot-ELISA using cyst wall, protoscolex and cyst fluid were used to demonstrate anti-hydatid antibodies. The sensitivity of Dot-ELISA using cyst wall, protoscolex and cyst fluid was 96.66%, 86.66% and 93.33% respectively and the specificity of the assay was 70% for Dot-ELISA using cyst fluid, protoscolex and cyst wall antigens. Results of the present study show that cyst wall and protoscolex can also be an useful source of antigen in detection of hydatid antibodies in the serodiagnosis of CE.
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Toxocariasis is a worldwide public-health problem that poses major risks to children who may accidentally ingest embryonated eggs of Toxocara. The objectives of this study were to investigate the occurrence of anti-Toxocara spp. antibodies in children and adolescents and the variables that may be involved, as well as environmental contamination by Toxocara spp. eggs, in urban recreation areas of north central mesoregion, Paraná State, Brazil. From June 2005 to March 2007. a total of 376 blood samples were collected by the Public Health Service from children and adolescents one to 12 years old, of both genders. Samples were analyzed by the indirect ELISA method for detection of anti-Toxocara antibodies. Serum samples were previously absorbed with Ascaris suum antigens, and considered positive with a reagent reactivity index >1. Soil samples from all of the public squares and schools located in the four evaluated municipalities that had sand surfaces (n = 19) or lawns (n = 15) were analyzed. Of the 376 serum samples, 194 (51.6%) were positive. The seroprevalence rate was substantially higher among children aging one to five years (p = 0.001) and six to eight years (p = 0.022). The clinical signs and symptoms investigated did not show a statistical difference between seropositive and seronegative individuals (p > 0.05). In 76.5% of the investigated recreation places, eggs of Toxocara were detected in at least one of the five collected samples. Recreation areas from public schools were 2.8 times more contaminated than from public squares. It is important to institute educational programs to inform families and educators, as well as to improve sanitary control of animals and cleaning of the areas intended for recreation in order to prevent toxocariasis.
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Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.
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The present study intended to analyze the seroprevalence of Helicobacter pylori, IgG, and its relation to dyspepsia in a population from the western Amazon region. During the "Projeto Bandeira Científica", a University of São Paulo Medical School program, in Monte Negro's rural areas, state of Rondônia, 266 blood samples were collected from volunteers. The material was tested for IgG antibodies anti-Helicobacter pylori by ELISA method and the participants were also interviewed on dyspepsia, hygiene and social aspects. Participants aged between five and 81 years old (34 years on average), 149 (56%) were female and 117 (44%) male. We found 210 (78.9%) positive, 50 (18.8%) negative and six (2.3%) undetermined samples. Dyspeptic complaints were found in 226 cases (85.2%). There was no statistical association between dyspepsia and positive serology for H. pylori. We concluded that the seroprevalence in all age categories is similar to results found in other studies conducted in developing countries, including those from Brazil. On the other hand, the seroprevalence found in Monte Negro was higher than that reported in developed countries. As expected, there was a progressive increase in the positivity for H. pylori in older age groups.