984 resultados para forecast deviation
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No earlier study has investigated the microbiology of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) foam using a standardized manner. The purpose of this study is to investigate the bacterial load and microbiological dynamics in NPWT foam removed from chronic wounds (>3 months). To determine the bacterial load, a standardized size of the removed NPWT foam was sonicated. The resulting sonication fluid was cultured, and the colony-forming units (CFU) of each species were enumerated. Sixty-eight foams from 17 patients (mean age 63 years, 71% males) were investigated. In 65 (97%) foams, â0/00¥âeuro0/001 and in 37 (54%) â0/00¥2 bacterial types were found. The bacterial load remained high during NPWT treatment, ranging from 10(4) to 10(6) CFU/ml. In three patients (27%), additional type of bacteria was found in subsequent foam cultures. The mean bacterial countâeuro0/00±âeuro0/00standard deviation was higher in polyvinyl alcohol foam (6.1âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.5 CFU/ml) than in polyurethane (5.5âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.8 CFU/ml) (pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.02). The mean of log of sum of CFU/ml in foam from 125âeuro0/00mmHg (5.5âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.8) was lower than in foam from 100âeuro0/00mmHg pressure (5.9âeuro0/00±âeuro0/000.5) (pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.01). Concluding, bacterial load remains high in NPWT foam, and routine changing does not reduce the load.
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The purpose of this study was to evaluate longitudinally, using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), the dynamics of decision-making capacity at a two-year interval (median: 2.1 years) in a group of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) (n = 70) and minor neurological disability [Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) < or = 2.5 at baseline]. Cognition (memory, executive functions, attention), behavior, handicap, and perceived health status were also investigated. Standardized change scores [(score at retest-score at baseline)/standard deviation of baseline score] were computed. Results showed that IGT performances decreased from baseline to retest (from 0.3, SD = 0.4 to 0.1, SD = 0.3, p = .005). MS patients who worsened in the IGT were more likely to show a decreased perceived health status and emotional well-being (SEP-59; p = .05 for both). Relapsing rate, disability progression, cognitive, and behavioral changes were not associated with decreased IGT performances. In conclusion, decline in decision making can appear as an isolated deficit in MS.
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INTRODUCTION. Recent studies suggest that increased blood glucose variability (BGV) is associated with ICU mortality1. Hypothermia is known to induce insulin resistance, thus potentially increasing BGV. No studies however have examined the effect of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) on insulin requirements and BGV. OBJECTIVES. To examine the effect of TH on BGV and its relationship to outcome in patients with coma after cardiac arrest (CA). METHODS. We prospectively studied 132 consecutive comatose CA patients treated with TH (target core temp 33_C for 24 h, using surface cooling). All patients were treated with intravenous insulin (blood glucose target 6-8 mM), according to a written algorithm, with nurse-driven adjustment of insulin dose. For each patient, standard deviation of repeated blood glucose samples was used to calculate BGV. Two time-points, comparable in duration, were studied: TH (stable maintenance phase, i.e. 6-24 h, core temp ± 33_C) vs. Normothermia (NT, i.e. after rewarming, stable normothermic phase, core temp ± 37_C). Mortality and neurological recovery (Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance Categories, CPC, dichotomized as good = CPC 1-2 vs. poor = CPC 3-5) were assessed at hospital discharge. Statistical analysis was performed with ANOVA for repeated measures. RESULTS. Compared to NT, TH was associated with increased intravenous insulin dose (0.8 ± 1.1 vs. 1.6 ± 2 U/h, P\0.0001), higher mean (6.9 ± 1.3 vs. 7.7 ± 1.8 mM, P\0.0001) and maximum (9.1 ± 3.7 vs. 10.9 ± 3.6 mM, P\0.0001) blood glucose, and increased BGV (1.3 ± 1.2 vs. 1.7 ± 1.1 mM, P = 0.004). Increased BGV was strongly associated with mortality (2.5 ± 1.5 mM in non-survivors vs. 1.6 ± 1 mM in survivors, P\0.001) and worse outcome (2.3 ± 1.4 mM in patients with poor vs. 1.5 ± 0.8 mM in those with good neurological recovery, P\0.0001). CONCLUSIONS. Therapeutic hypothermia is associated with increased insulin requirements and higher blood glucose variability,which in turn correlateswithworse prognosis in patientswith post- CA coma. Strategies aimed to maintain stable glycemic profile and avoid blood glucose variability might contribute to optimize the management of TH and may translate into better outcome.
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We appreciate the interest shown by Vidal-Pérez et al. in our article published recently in Revista Española de Cardiología,1 which provides us with an opportunity to present some interesting additional information not included in the article itself. We agree on the importance of knowing the thromboembolic risk of the population included in the OFRECE study, both for patients with a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation and for the general population. In our study, the mean (standard deviation) CHADS2 and CHAD2DS2-VASc of patients with atrial fibrillation was 2.3 (1.3) and 3.8 (1.6), respectively. In the general population, the mean (standard deviation) CHADS2 and CHAD2DS2-VASc of patients with atrial fibrillation was 0.8 (1) and 1.8 (1.5), respectively. The distribution of both scales is in agreement with that of the Val-FAAP and AFABE studies,2, 3 although the similarity is greater in the 2 population-based studies (Figure). These data are, we believe, relevant because they show that the level of risk in the population with atrial fibrillation is very similar to that of the populations included in clinical trials with new oral anticoagulants. In addition, an increasing body of evidence suggests that thromboembolic risk, as measured with these scales in the population without a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, is associated with the onset of events.
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Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.
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BACKGROUND Understanding of the genetic basis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has progressed rapidly, but the interactions between common genetic variants and lifestyle risk factors have not been systematically investigated in studies with adequate statistical power. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the combined effects of genetic and lifestyle factors on risk of T2D in order to inform strategies for prevention. METHODS AND FINDINGS The InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals from a cohort of 340,234 European participants with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the combined effects of an additive genetic T2D risk score and modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random effects meta-analysis methods. The effect of the genetic score was significantly greater in younger individuals (p for interaction = 1.20×10-4). Relative genetic risk (per standard deviation [4.4 risk alleles]) was also larger in participants who were leaner, both in terms of body mass index (p for interaction = 1.50×10-3) and waist circumference (p for interaction = 7.49×10-9). Examination of absolute risks by strata showed the importance of obesity for T2D risk. The 10-y cumulative incidence of T2D rose from 0.25% to 0.89% across extreme quartiles of the genetic score in normal weight individuals, compared to 4.22% to 7.99% in obese individuals. We detected no significant interactions between the genetic score and sex, diabetes family history, physical activity, or dietary habits assessed by a Mediterranean diet score. CONCLUSIONS The relative effect of a T2D genetic risk score is greater in younger and leaner participants. However, this sub-group is at low absolute risk and would not be a logical target for preventive interventions. The high absolute risk associated with obesity at any level of genetic risk highlights the importance of universal rather than targeted approaches to lifestyle intervention.
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Aims: To evaluate the impact on glycemic control and quality of life of a bolus calculator. Methods: Multicentre randomized prospective crosssectional study. Patients were randomized to control phase (3 months; calculation of prandial insulin according to insulinto-carbohydrate ratio and insulin sensitivity factor using a single strip meter) or intervention phase (3 months; calculation of prandial insulin with a bolus advisor), with a washout period (3 months). Patients wore a continuous glucosensor (7 days) and answered a quality of life questionnaire at the beginning and at the end of each phase. A questionnaire of satisfaction was obtained at the end of both phases. Inclusion criteria: Adults; T1DM> 1 year, HbA1c > 7.5%, basal-bolus therapy with insulin analogs, experience with carbohydrate Results: Data from the first 32 subjects with at least 1 ended phase (27 females, age 38 – 11 years, diabetes duration 16.8 – 7.5 years). Basal characteristics were comparable independently of the starting phase. No differences were found between phases in terms of mean blood glucose, standard deviation (from meter neither from sensor) and satisfaction. Conclusions: The use of a bolus calculator improves glycemic control and quality of life of T1DM subjects.
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Title: Are suitable general clinic criteria for defining hypothyroidism in people with Down syndrome? Studies on the prevalence of thyroid disorders in people with Down syndrome (DS) show a wide dispersion of results. However, most of these studies agree in indicating a greater frequency than in the general population. The cause of these differences may depend on the method of sample selection. In this work we studied a healthy population of adolescents with DS of the Association of Málaga, selected randomly and regardless of the medical care. Mean TSH distribution, used here as a tool to define the biochemical thyroid function of the studied DS population, was two standard deviation higher than the mean for the general population. These data show that in terms of TSH the DS population is a distinct population with respect to the general population. This clearly indicates that it would be necessary to identify and define new criteria to establish what is normal, subclinical hypothyroidism, borderline or pathological, and to propose new treatment guide.
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Diabet. Med. 28, 539-542 (2011) ABSTRACT: Aims Achievement of good metabolic control in Type 1 diabetes is a difficult task in routine diabetes care. Education-based flexible intensified insulin therapy has the potential to meet the therapeutic targets while limiting the risk for severe hypoglycaemia. We evaluated the metabolic control and the rate of severe hypoglycaemia in real-life clinical practice in a centre using flexible intensified insulin therapy as standard of care since 1990. Methods Patients followed for Type 1 diabetes (n = 206) or those with other causes of absolute insulin deficiency (n = 17) in our outpatient clinic were analysed in a cross-sectional study. Mean age (± standard deviation) was 48.9 ± 15.7 years, with diabetes duration of 21.4 ± 14.4 years. Outcome measures were HbA(1c) and frequency of severe hypoglycaemia. Results Median HbA(1c) was 7.1% (54 mmol/mol) [interquartile range 6.6-7.8 (51-62 mmol/mol)]; a good or acceptable metabolic control with HbA(1c) < 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) or 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) was reached in 43.5 and 64.6% of the patients, respectively. The frequency of severe hypoglycaemic episodes was 15 per 100 patient years: 72.3% of the patients did not experience any such episodes during the past 5 years. Conclusions Good or acceptable metabolic control is achievable in the majority of patients with Type 1 diabetes or other causes of absolute insulin deficiency in routine diabetes care while limiting the risk for severe hypoglycaemia.
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This paper proposes an empirical framework to study the effects of a policy regime change defined as an unpredictable and permanent change in the policy parameters. In particular I show how to make conditional forecast and perform impulse response functions and counterfactual analysis. As an application, the effects of changes in fiscal policy rules in the US are investigated. I find that discretionary fiscal policy has become more countercyclical over the last decades. In absence of such a change, surplus would have been higher, debt lower and output gap more volatile but only until mid 80s. An increase in the degree of counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy has a positive effect on output gap in periods where the level of debt-to-GDP ratio is low and a zero or negative effect when the ratio is high. This explains why a more countercylical stance of the systematic fiscal policy taking place in 2008:II is predicted to be rather ineffective for recovering from the crisis.
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BACKGROUND Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is gaining importance as a valuable outcome measure in oral cancer area. The aim of this study was to assess the general and oral HRQoL of oral and oropharyngeal cancer patients 6 or more months after treatment and compare them with a population free from this disease. METHODS A cross-sectional study was carried out with patients treated for oral cancer at least 6 months post-treatment and a gender and age group matched control group. HRQoL was measured with the 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12); oral HRQoL (OHRQoL) was evaluated using the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14) and the Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (OIDP). Multivariable regression models assessed the association between the outcomes (SF-12, OHIP-14 and OIDP) and the exposure (patients versus controls), adjusting for sex, age, social class, functional tooth units and presence of illness. RESULTS For patients (n = 142) and controls (n = 142), 64.1% were males. The mean age was 65.2 (standard deviation (sd): 12.9) years in patients and 67.5 (sd: 13.7) years in controls. Patients had worse SF-12 Physical Component Summary scores than controls even in fully the adjusted model [β-coefficient = -0.11 (95% CI: -5.12-(-0.16)]. The differences in SF-12 Mental Component Summary were not statistically significant. Regarding OHRQoL patients had 11.63 (95% CI: 6.77-20.01) higher odds for the OHIP-14 and 21.26 (95% CI: 11.54-39.13) higher odds for OIDP of being in a worse category of OHRQoL compared to controls in the fully adjusted model. CONCLUSION At least 6 months after treatment, oral cancer patients had worse OHRQoL, worse physical HRQoL and similar psychological HRQoL than the general population.
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Objective: To determine the values of, and study the relationships among, central corneal thickness (CCT), intraocular pressure (IOP), and degree of myopia (DM) in an adult myopic population aged 20 to 40 years in Almeria (southeast Spain). To our knowledge this is first study of this kind in this region. Methods: An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study was done in which a sample of 310 myopic patients (620 eyes) aged 20 to 40 years was selected by gender- and age-stratified sampling, which was proportionally fixed to the size of the population strata for which a 20% prevalence of myopia, 5% epsilon, and a 95% confidence interval were hypothesized. We studied IOP, CCT, and DM and their relationships by calculating the mean, standard deviation, 95% confidence interval for the mean, median, Fisher’s asymmetry coefficient, range (maximum, minimum), and the Brown-Forsythe’s robust test for each variable (IOP, CCT, and DM). Results: In the adult myopic population of Almeria aged 20 to 40 years (mean of 29.8), the mean overall CCT was 550.12 μm. The corneas of men were thicker than those of women (P = 0.014). CCT was stable as no significant differences were seen in the 20- to 40-year-old subjects’ CCT values. The mean overall IOP was 13.60 mmHg. Men had a higher IOP than women (P = 0.002). Subjects over 30 years (13.83) had a higher IOP than those under 30 (13.38) (P = 0.04). The mean overall DM was −4.18 diopters. Men had less myopia than women (P < 0.001). Myopia was stable in the 20- to 40-year-old study population (P = 0.089). A linear relationship was found between CCT and IOP (R2 = 0.152, P ≤ 0.001). CCT influenced the IOP value by 15.2%. However no linear relationship between DM and IOP, or between CCT and DM, was found. Conclusions: CCT was found to be similar to that reported in other studies in different populations. IOP tends to increase after the age of 30 and is not accounted for by alterations in CCT values.
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T-cell development depends upon interactions between thymocytes and thymic epithelial cells (TECs). The engagement of delta-like 4 (DL4) on TECs by Notch1 expressed by blood-borne BM-derived precursors is essential for T-cell commitment in the adult thymus. In contrast to the adult, the earliest T-cell progenitors in the embryo originate in the fetal liver and migrate to the nonvascularized fetal thymus via chemokine signals. Within the fetal thymus, some T-cell precursors undergo programmed TCRγ and TCRδ rearrangement and selection, giving rise to unique γδ T cells. Despite these fundamental differences between fetal and adult T-cell lymphopoiesis, we show here that DL4-mediated Notch signaling is essential for the development of both αβ and γδ T-cell lineages in the embryo. Deletion of the DL4 gene in fetal TECs results in an early block in αβ T-cell development and a dramatic reduction of all γδ T-cell subsets in the fetal thymus. In contrast to the adult, no dramatic deviation of T-cell precursors to alternative fates was observed in the fetal thymus in the absence of Notch signaling. Taken together, our data reveal a common requirement for DL4-mediated Notch signaling in fetal and adult thymopoiesis.
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Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.
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Teicoplanin is frequently administered to treat Gram-positive infections in pediatric patients. However, not enough is known about the pharmacokinetics (PK) of teicoplanin in children to justify the optimal dosing regimen. The aim of this study was to determine the population PK of teicoplanin in children and evaluate the current dosage regimens. A PK hospital-based study was conducted. Current dosage recommendations were used for children up to 16 years of age. Thirty-nine children were recruited. Serum samples were collected at the first dose interval (1, 3, 6, and 24 h) and at steady state. A standard 2-compartment PK model was developed, followed by structural models that incorporated weight. Weight was allowed to affect clearance (CL) using linear and allometric scaling terms. The linear model best accounted for the observed data and was subsequently chosen for Monte Carlo simulations. The PK parameter medians/means (standard deviation [SD]) were as follows: CL, [0.019/0.023 (0.01)] × weight liters/h/kg of body weight; volume, 2.282/4.138 liters (4.14 liters); first-order rate constant from the central to peripheral compartment (Kcp), 0.474/3.876 h(-1) (8.16 h(-1)); and first-order rate constant from peripheral to central compartment (Kpc), 0.292/3.994 h(-1) (8.93 h(-1)). The percentage of patients with a minimum concentration of drug in serum (Cmin) of <10 mg/liter was 53.85%. The median/mean (SD) total population area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) was 619/527.05 mg · h/liter (166.03 mg · h/liter). Based on Monte Carlo simulations, only 30.04% (median AUC, 507.04 mg · h/liter), 44.88% (494.1 mg · h/liter), and 60.54% (452.03 mg · h/liter) of patients weighing 50, 25, and 10 kg, respectively, attained trough concentrations of >10 mg/liter by day 4 of treatment. The teicoplanin population PK is highly variable in children, with a wider AUC distribution spread than for adults. Therapeutic drug monitoring should be a routine requirement to minimize suboptimal concentrations. (This trial has been registered in the European Clinical Trials Database Registry [EudraCT] under registration number 2012-005738-12.).