Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

Production efficiency in the von Liebig model

The objective of this paper is to revisit the von Liebig hypothesis by reexamining five samples of experimental data and by applying to it recent advances in Bayesian techniques. The samples were published by Hexem and Heady as described in a further section. Prior to outlining the estimation strategy, we discuss the intuition underlying our approach and, briefly, the literature on which it is based. We present an algorithm for the basic von Liebig formulation and demonstrate its application using simulated data (table 1). We then discuss the modifications needed to the basic model that facilitate estimation of a von Liebig frontier and we demonstrate the extended algorithm using simulated data (table 2). We then explore, empirically, the relationships between limiting water and nitrogen in the Hexem and Heady corn samples and compare the results between the two formulations (table 3). Finally, some conclusions and suggestions for further research are offered.

Relationships between the plasma concentrations of insulin-like growth factor-I in dairy cows and their fertility and milk yield

The relationships between insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and the fertility and milk yield of Holstein-Friesian dairy cows were investigated. The concentration of IGF-I in blood was measured weekly from one week before to 12 weeks after calving in 177 multiparous cows and at four times during this period in 142 primiparous cows; the concentration of IGF-I in milk was measured in 50 of the multiparous cows. The plasma concentrations of IGF-I were higher in the primiparous than in the multiparous animals. in the primiparous cows, high concentrations of IGF-I before calving were associated with longer calving to conception intervals. Conversely, in the multiparous cows low concentrations of IGF-I before and after calving were associated with a failure to conceive, despite repeated services. Multiparous cows with IGF-I concentrations of greater than 25 ng/ml in the week after calving were 11 times more likely to conceive to first service than those with lower concentrations. Concentrations of IGF-I greater than 50 ng/ml at first service increased the likelihood of conception five-fold. Cows with higher peak milk yields had lower plasma concentrations of IGF-I and took longer to return to ovarian cyclicity. The negative relationship between milk yield and return to cyclicity was stronger in the multiparous cows (P<0(.)002) than in the primiparous cows (P<0(.)04). The concentrations of IGF-I in milk followed a different pattern and were not associated with the changes in plasma IGF-I or fertility.

Vegetation dynamics in abandoned crop fields on a Mediterranean island: Development of succession model and estimation of disturbance thresholds

This case study on the Sifnos island, Greece, assesses the main factors controlling vegetation succession following crop abandonment and describes the vegetation dynamics of maquis and phrygana formations in relation to alternative theories of secondary succession. Field survey data were collected and analysed at community as well as species level. The results show that vegetation succession on abandoned crop fields is determined by the combined effects of grazing intensity, soil and geological characteristics and time. The analysis determines the quantitative grazing thresholds that modify the successional pathway. Light grazing leads to dominance by maquis vegetation while overgrazing leads to phryganic vegetation. The proposed model shows that vegetation succession following crop abandonment is a complex multi-factor process where the final or the stable stage of the process is not predefined but depends on the factors affecting succession. An example of the use of succession models and disturbance thresholds as a policy assessment tool is presented by evaluating the likely vegetation impacts of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Sifnos island over a 20-30-year time horizon. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic and quantum chemical studies of the reaction of silylene with nitric oxide

Time-resolved kinetic studies of the reaction of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reaction with NO. The reaction was studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas at five temperatures in the range 299-592 K. The second-order rate constants at 10 Torr fitted the Arrhenius equation log(k/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (- 11.66 +/- 0.01) + (6.20 +/- 0.10 kJ mol(-1))IRT In 10 The rate constants showed a variation with pressure of a factor of ca. 2 over the available range, almost independent of temperature. The data could not be fitted by RRKM calculations to a simple third body assisted association reaction alone. However, a mechanistic model with an additional (pressure independent) side channel gave a reasonable fit to the data. Ab initio calculations at the G3 level supported a mechanism in which the initial adduct, bent H2SiNO, can ring close to form cyclo-H2SiNO, which is partially collisionally stabilized. In addition, bent H2SiNO can undergo a low barrier isomerization reaction leading, via a sequence of steps, ultimately to dissociation products of which the lowest energy pair are NH2 + SiO. The rate controlling barrier for this latter pathway is only 16 kJ mol(-1) below the energy of SiH2 + NO. This is consistent with the kinetic findings. A particular outcome of this work is that, despite the pressure dependence and the effects of the secondary barrier (in the side reaction), the initial encounter of SiH2 with NO occurs at the collision rate. Thus, silylene can be as reactive with odd electron molecules as with many even electron species. Some comparisons are drawn with the reactions of CH2 + NO and SiCl2 + NO.

Synthesis, structural analysis, and magnetic behaviour of three fumarate bridged coordination polymers: five-fold interpenetrated diamond-like net of Ni-II, sheets of Ni-II and Co-II

The hydrothermal reactions of Ni(NO3)(2).6H(2)O, disodium fumarate (fum) and 1,2-bis(4-pyridyl)ethane (bpe)/1,3-bis(4-pyridyl) propane (bpp) in aqueous-methanol medium yield one 3-D and one 2-D metal-organic hybrid material, [Ni(fum)(bpe)] (1) and [Ni(fum)(bpp)(H2O)] (2), respectively. Complex 1 possesses a novel unprecedented structure, the first example of an "unusual mode" of a five-fold distorted interpenetrated network with metal-ligand linkages where the four six-membered windows in each adamantane-type cage are different. The structural characterization of complex 2 evidences a buckled sheet where nickel ions are in a distorted octahedral geometry, with two carboxylic groups, one acting as a bis-chelate, the other as a bis-monodentate ligand. The metal ion completes the coordination sphere through one water molecule and two bpp nitrogens in cis position. Variable-temperature magnetic measurements of complexes 1 and 2 reveal the existence of very weak antiferromagnetic intramolecular interactions and/or the presence of single-ion zero field splitting (D) of isolated Ni-II ions in both the compounds. Experimentally, both the J parameters are close, comparable and very small. Considering zero-field splitting of Ni-II, the calculated D values are in agreement with values reported in the literature for Ni-II ions. Complex 3, [{Co(phen)}(2)(fum)(2)] (phen=1,10-phenanthroline) is obtained by diffusing methanolic solution of 1,10-phenanthroline on an aqueous layer of disodium fumarate and Co(NO3)(2).6H(2)O. It consists of dimeric Co-II(phen) units, doubly bridged by carboxylate groups in a distorted syn-syn fashion. These fumarate anions act as bis-chelates to form corrugated sheets. The 2D layer has a (4,4) topology, with the nodes represented by the centres of the dimers. The magnetic data were fitted ignoring the very weak coupling through the fumarate pathway and using a dimer model.

Can misalignments in typical infants be used as a model for infantile esotropia?

PURPOSE. To investigate the nature of early ocular misalignments in human infants to determine whether they can provide insight into the etiology of esotropia and, in particular, to examine the correlates of misalignments. METHODS. A remote haploscopic photorefraction system was used to measure accommodation and vergence in 146 infants between 0 and 12 months of age. Infants underwent photorefraction immediately after watching a target moving between two of five viewing distances (25, 33, 50, 100, and 200 cm). In some instances, infants were tested in two conditions: both eyes open and one eye occluded. The resultant data were screened for instances of large misalignments. Data were assessed to determine whether accommodative, retinal disparity, or other cues were associated with the occurrence of misalignments. RESULTS. The results showed that there was no correlation between accommodative behavior and misalignments. Infants were more likely to show misalignments when retinal disparity cues were removed through occlusion. They were also more likely to show misalignments immediately after the target moved from a near to a far position in comparison to far-to-near target movement. DISCUSSION. The data suggest that the prevalence of misalignments in infants of 2 to 3 months of age is decreased by the addition of retinal disparity cues to the stimulus. In addition, target movement away from the infant increases the prevalence of misalignments. These data are compatible with the notion that misalignment are caused by poor sensitivity to targets moving away from the infant and support the theory that some forms of strabismus could be related to failure in a system that is sensitive to the direction of motion.

Evaluating forecasts of the evolution of the cloudy boundary layer using diurnal composites of radar and lidar observations

Observations of boundary-layer cloud have been made using radar and lidar at Chilbolton, Hampshire, UK. These have been compared with output from 7 different global and regional models. Fifty-five cloudy days have been composited to reveal the mean diurnal variation of cloud top and base heights, cloud thickness and liquid water path of the clouds. To enable like-for-like comparison between model and observations, the observations have been averaged on to the grid of each model. The composites show a distinct diurnal cycle in observed cloud; the cloud height exhibits a sinusoidal variation throughout the day with a maximum at around 1600 and a minimum at around 0700 UTC. This diurnal cycle is captured by six of the seven models analysed, although the models generally under-predict both cloud top and cloud base heights throughout the day. The two worst performing models in terms of cloud boundaries also have biases of around a factor of two in liquid water path; these were the only two models that did not include an explicit formulation for cloud-top entrainment.

Meson properties in an extended nonlocal NJL model

We consider a non-local version of the NJL model, based on a separable quark-quark interaction. The interaction is extended to include terms that bind vector and axial-vector mesons. The non-locality means that no further regulator is required. Moreover the model is able to confine the quarks by generating a quark propagator without poles at real energies. Working in the ladder approximation, we calculate amplitudes in Euclidean space and discuss features of their continuation to Minkowski energies. Conserved currents are constructed and we demonstrate their consistency with various Ward identities. Various meson masses are calculated, along with their strong and electromagnetic decay amplitudes. We also calculate the electromagnetic form factor of the pion, as well as form factors associated with the processes γγ* → π0 and ω → π0γ*. The results are found to lead to a satisfactory phenomenology and lend some dynamical support to the idea of vector-meson dominance.

Meson properties in an extended nonlocal NJL model

A nonlocal version of the NJL model is investigated. It is based on a separable quark-quark interaction, as suggested by the instanton liquid picture of the QCD vacuum. The interaction is extended to include terms that bind vector and axial-vector mesons. The nonlocality means that no further regulator is required. Moreover the model is able to confine the quarks by generating a quark propagator without poles at real energies. Features of the continuation of amplitudes from Euclidean space to Minkowski energies are discussed. These features lead to restrictions on the model parameters as well as on the range of applicability of the model. Conserved currents are constructed, and their consistency with various Ward identities is demonstrated. In particular, the Gell-Mann-Oakes-Renner relation is derived both in the ladder approximation and at meson loop level. The importance of maintaining chiral symmetry in the calculations is stressed throughout. Calculations with the model are performed to all orders in momentum. Meson masses are determined, along with their strong and electromagnetic decay amplitudes. Also calculated are the electromagnetic form factor of the pion and form factors associated with the processes gamma gamma* --> pi0 and omega --> pi0 gamma*. The results are found to lead to a satisfactory phenomenology and demonstrate a possible dynamical origin for vector-meson dominance. In addition, the results produced at meson loop level validate the use of 1/Nc as an expansion parameter and indicate that a light and broad scalar state is inherent in models of the NJL type.

Deposition of charged inhaled aerosols with transient airflow in sequential lung airway model

Transport and deposition of charged inhaled aerosols in double planar bifurcation representing generation three to five of human respiratory system has been studied under a light activity breathing condition. Both steady and oscillatory laminar inhalation airflow is considered. Particle trajectories are calculated using a Lagrangian reference frame, which is dominated by the fluid force driven by airflow, gravity force and electrostatic forces (both of space and image charge forces). The particle-mesh method is selected to calculate the space charge force. This numerical study investigates the deposition efficiency in the three-dimensional model under various particle sizes, charge values, and inlet particle distribution. Numerical results indicate that particles carrying an adequate level of charge can improve deposition efficiency in the airway model.

A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

Identification and characterisation of five novel miniature inverted-repeat transposable elements (MITEs) in amphioxus (Branchiostoma floridae)

As the sister group to vertebrates, amphioxus is consistently used as a model of genome evolution for understanding the invertebrate/vertebrate transition. The amphioxus genome has not undergone massive duplications like those in the vertebrates or disruptive rearrangements like in the genome of Ciona, a urochordate, making it an ideal evolutionary model. Transposable elements have been linked to many genomic evolutionary changes including increased genome size, modified gene expression, massive gene rearrangements, and possibly intron evolution. Despite their importance in genome evolution, few previous examples of transposable elements have been identified in amphioxus. We report five novel Miniature Inverted-repeat Transposable Elements (MITEs) identified by an analysis of amphioxus DNA sequence, which we have named LanceleTn-1, LanceleTn-2, LanceleTn-3a, LanceleTn-3b and LanceleTn-4. Several of the LanceleTn elements were identified in the amphioxus ParaHox cluster, and we suggest these have had important implications for the evolution of this highly conserved gene cluster. The estimated high copy numbers of these elements implies that MITEs are probably the most abundant type of mobile element in amphioxus, and are thus likely to have been of fundamental importance in shaping the evolution of the amphioxus genome.