Banca Digital

Em plena quarta revolução industrial, todas as industrias se estão a transformar para se ajustar aos novos paradigmas de relação com os clientes, altamente influenciados pelos pioneiros digitais como a Uber, Netflix ou Amazon, porém no setor financeiro há desafios acrescidos, pois os clientes esperam juntar essas expectativas digitais com a manutenção da iteração humana, enquanto, do lados bancos, em simultâneo, necessitam de recuperar da crise da dívida soberana que impôs necessidades de ajustamento dos balanços. O momento de desenvolvimento tecnológico potenciado pelo forte crescimento do acesso à internet em mobilidade traz novos hábitos e expectativas na relação com as entidades, com dispositivos cada vez mais potentes a cada vez menor custo, o que criou a oportunidade perfeita para o surgimento de startups tecnológicas dispostas a transformar os modelos de negócio de intermediação clássica, dando origem, no setor financeiro, às fintechs – empresas de base tecnológica dedicadas à prestação de serviços financeiros - impondo uma disrupção na industria financeira, com destaque para mercados como os EUA e Reino Unido. Olhando aos últimos cinco anos do setor financeiro, será muito difícil antecipar como estará o setor financeiro dentro de cinco anos, mas sabemos que estará seguramente muito diferente do que conhecemos hoje, por esse fato este trabalho é assente essencialmente em referências bibliográficas dos últimos 5 anos, tendo sido feito utilizados estudos de investigação de empresas e documentos académicos para a caracterização do setor neste contexto de inovação permanente e em que medida este processo de “digitalização” do setor financeiro influencia a propensão dos clientes na contratação de mais produtos e serviços, sendo esse um fator central para os bancos em Portugal recuperarem economicamente. É também analisada a dimensão seguida pelas instituições de regulação e supervisão do setor financeiro com vista a potenciar a concorrência e inovação do setor financeiro, enquanto mantém a garantia de segurança, confiança e controlo de risco sistémico. É bastante escassa a literatura disponível para caracterizar a banca em Portugal numa ótica de inovação e transformação, porém este trabalho procura caracterizar o sistema financeiro português face à forma como está a responder aos desafios de transformação tecnológica e digital. Procurou-se estabelecer uma metodologia de investigação que permita caracterizar a perceção de valor acrescentado para os clientes da utilização de serviços digitais e em que medida estes se podem substituir aos balcões e à intervenção humana dos profissionais dos bancos, tendo-se concluído que estes dois elementos são ainda fatores centrais para os clientes.

Health, hygiene and biosecurity: tribal knowledge claims in the UK poultry industry

Since 1997 the world has been facing the threat of a human influenza pandemic that may be caused by an avian virus and the poultry industry around the globe has been grappling with the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1, or in more informal terms bird flu. The UK poultry industry has lived with and through this threat and its consequences since 2005. This study investigates knowledge claims about health, hygiene and biosecurity as tools to ward off the threat from this virus. It takes a semi-ethnographic and discourse analytic approach to analyse a small corpus of semi-structured interviews carried out in the wake of one of the most publicised outbreaks of H5N1 in Suffolk in 2007. It reveals that claims about what best to do to protect flocks against the risk of disease are divided along lines imposed on the one hand by the structure of the industry and on the other by more 'tribal' lines drawn by knowledge and belief systems about purity and dirt, health and hygiene.

Essays on Financial Constraints, R&D Investments, and Competition

This dissertation consists of two chapters of theoretical studies that investigate the effect of financial constraints and market competition on research and development (R&D) investments. In the first chapter, I explore the impact of financial constraints on two different types of R&D investments. In the second chapter, I examine the impact of market competition on the relationship between financial constraints and R&D investments. In the first chapter, I develop a dynamic monopoly model to study a firm’s R&D strategy. Contrary to intuition, I show that a financially constrained firm may invest more aggressively in R&D projects than an unconstrained firm. Financial constraints introduce a risk that a firm may run out of money before its project bears fruit, which leads to involuntary termination on an otherwise positive-NPV project. For a company that relies on cash flow from assets in place to keep its R&D project alive, early success can be relatively important. I find that when the discovery process can be expedited by heavier investment (“accelerable” projects), a financially constrained company may find it optimal to “over”-invest in order to raise the probability of project survival. The over-investment will not happen if the project is only “scalable” (investment scales up payoffs). The model generates several testable implications regarding over-investment and project values. In the second chapter, I study the effects of competition on R&D investments in a duopoly framework. Using a homogeneous duopoly model where two unconstrained firms compete head to head in an R&D race, I find that competition has no effect on R&D investment if the project is not accelerable, and the competing firms are not constrained. In a heterogeneous duopoly model where a financially constrained firm competes against an unconstrained firm, I discover interesting strategic interactions that lead to preemption by the constrained firm in equilibrium. The unconstrained competitor responds to its constrained rival’s investment in an inverted-U shape fashion. When the constrained competitor has high cash flow risk, it accelerates the innovation in equilibrium, while the unconstrained firm invests less aggressively and waits for its rival to quit the race due to shortage of funds.

Reputational risk of banks : a study on the effects of regulatory sanctions for major european banks

Mestrado em Finanças

Reporte financiero Burkenroad / Latinoamérica – Colombia / Carvajal Empaques S.A.

De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos en la valoración, la recomendación es comprar la acción de Carvajal Empaques S.A., ya que se espera que se valorice en un 16.68% a diciembre 31 de 2016, debido a la progresiva recuperación del flujo de caja después de grandes inversiones hechas en años anteriores para la ampliación de su capacidad instalada, permitiéndoles crecer y suplir la demanda ascendente del mercado de food service, dejando ver también el impacto de las eficiencias operacionales buscadas por la compañía -- Además, a nivel mundial se espera un crecimiento del sector empaques por encima de la economía y la empresa ocupa uno de los tres primeros puestos en cada geografía donde tiene presencia, por lo que para seguir supliendo el aumento de la demanda, este año planean construir una nueva planta de producción en Perú y aumentar la diversidad de su portafolio -- Sin embargo, a pesar de lo logrado por la compañía en crecimiento y eficiencias, el panorama regional político-económico de la mayoría de países latinoamericanos es incierto, puesto que atraviesan una fase de decaimiento, por lo que los ingresos podrían verse afectados en cierto grado en años cercanos -- Realizando una prueba de sensibilidad frente a las variables macroeconómicas que pueden afectar el valor de la compañía, se hallaron los comportamientos y distribuciones del PIB y la inflación para cada uno de los países donde la empresa tiene operaciones -- También se tuvieron en cuenta otras variables como: la relación del dólar con el peso colombiano, el costo de capital, la tasa de crecimiento a perpetuidad, el capital de trabajo neto operativo, el crecimiento del activo fijo y el flujo de caja libre operativo -- Como variable de interés se eligió el valor objetivo por acción a diciembre 31 de 2016 -- Luego de 10.000 iteraciones se obtuvo el siguiente rango para el valor de la acción: un mínimo de $2.033,14 y un máximo de $3.538,66, con una media de $2.697,22 a un nivel de confianza del 95%

Life-cycle portfolio choice with liquid and illiquid financial assets

Traditionally, quantitative models that have studied households׳ portfolio choices have focused exclusively on the different risk properties of alternative financial assets. We introduce differences in liquidity across assets in the standard life-cycle model of portfolio choice. More precisely, in our model, stocks are subject to transaction costs, as considered in recent macroliterature. We show that when these costs are calibrated to match the observed infrequency of households׳ trading, the model is able to generate patterns of portfolio stock allocation over age and wealth that are constant or moderately increasing, thus more in line with the existing empirical evidence.

Is financial instability male-driven? Gender and cognitive skills in experimental asset markets

The hypothesis that price stability would reliably increase with the fraction of women operating in financial markets has been frequently suggested in policy discussions. To test this hypothesis we conducted 10 male-only, 10 female-only and 10 mixed-gender experimental asset markets, and compared the effects of gender composition, confidence, risk attitude and cognitive skills. Male and female markets have comparable volatility and deviations from fundamentals, whereas mixed-gender markets are substantially more stable. On the other hand, higher average cognitive skills of the group are associated with reduced market volatility. Individual-level analysis shows that subjects with higher cognitive skills trade at prices closer to fundamental values and earn significantly higher profits; similarly, mixed markets exhibit lower mispricing, particularly for traders with lower cognitive skills. Our results are demonstrated to hold in other experimental asset market studies, suggesting that a mixed-gender composition reduces mispricing across different types of asset markets.

New pasture plants intensify invasive species risk

Agricultural intensification is critical to meet global food demand, but intensification threatens native species and degrades ecosystems. Sustainable intensification (SI) is heralded as a new approach for enabling growth in agriculture while minimizing environmental impacts. However, the SI literature has overlooked a major environmental risk. Using data from eight countries on six continents, we show that few governments regulate conventionally bred pasture taxa to limit threats to natural areas, even though most agribusinesses promote taxa with substantial weed risk. New pasture taxa (including species, subspecies, varieties, cultivars, and plant-endophyte combinations) are bred with characteristics typical of invasive species and environmental weeds. By introducing novel genetic and endophyte variation, pasture taxa are imbued with additional capacity for invasion and environmental impact. New strategies to prevent future problems are urgently needed. We highlight opportunities for researchers, agribusiness, and consumers to reduce environmental risks associated with new pasture taxa. We also emphasize four main approaches that governments could consider as they build new policies to limit weed risks, including (i) national lists of taxa that are prohibited based on environmental risk; (ii) a weed risk assessment for all new taxa; (iii) a program to rapidly detect and control new taxa that invade natural areas; and (iv) the polluter-pays principle, so that if a taxon becomes an environmental weed, industry pays for its management. There is mounting pressure to increase livestock production. With foresight and planning, growth in agriculture can be achieved sustainably provided that the scope of SI expands to encompass environmental weed risks.

The moderating role of firm age in the relationship between R&D expenditure and financial performance: evidence from Chinese and US mining firms

We examine the impact of Research and Development (R&D) on the profitability and sales of mining firms in China and the United States (US) and the moderating effect of firm age using Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM). For the combined panel of 168 major US and Chinese mining firms, we find that, on average, a firm engaging in R&D activities earns 4% to 11% higher sales and generates 4% to 13% more profits than firms that do not engage in R&D activities. We also show that, in the mining industry, firm age moderates the relationship between R&D activities and financial performance. A comparatively mature R&D active firm earns 4.4% more profit and generates 7.2% more sales than a younger non-innovative firm. The turning point at which R&D activities switch from making a negative, to positive, contribution to profit and sales is 37 years and 22 years, respectively. Our results are consistentwith the liability of newness, meaning that firm investment in R&D takes time to have a real impact on bottom line measures of financial performance. We conclude with a discussion of the practical implications of our results for Chinese and US mining firms.

Regulating synthetic securitisation following the global financial crisis

This article explores whether proposed changes to the regulation of synthetic securitisation in Australia are sufficient in light of the Global Financial Crisis. Synthetic securitisation is specifically chosen as an object of study, given the relative ease with which it can be over-used. The article examines several theoretical problems with securitisation, which entice corporations into excessively risky behaviour. Contrary to popular belief, it is established that agency issues are not a serious problem with securitisation. Instead, managerial behavioural biases are shown to be most problematic. The article recommends stricter capital adequacy relief requirements, which would provide a disincentive for excessive risk-taking by potentially over-confident managers.

Islamic or conventional mutual funds: who has the upper hand? Evidence from Malaysia

Contradictory results are documented in the literature regarding which type of mutual fund has superior performance; an Islamic or conventional mutual fund. Due to the relative short history of the Islamic mutual funds' industry, prior literature has inevitably relied on a small sample size with a short sample period. With the longest applicable sample period, this study represents one of the most recent attempts to address this conflicting evidence. We find there is no clear cut over performance by Islamic mutual funds against their conventional peers across the three financial crises in our sample period, with the exception of the most recent global financial crisis, where Islamic mutual funds generally outperformed their conventional counterparts. We further find that Islamic funds significantly outperformed conventional funds in the riskiest asset class, equity, one year before and during the global financial crisis. We further reveal that the modified value at risk for Islamic mutual funds was significantly lower than their conventional peers during the global financial crisis. This seems to indicate that Islamic mutual funds have better risk management compared to conventional peers.

Gambling, society and the evolution of risk-taking

Gambling is emerging as a major industry around the world at a time when many of the more traditional economic pursuits are becoming less productive, but while the burgeoning gambling industry is certainly profitable and provides good investment opportunities and economic benefits for business and communities alike, it is timely that we look more closely at the overall benefits and costs of this phenomenon in modern society.

In this book about the modern gambling business, a motif of the Colorado River and the Boulder/Hoover Dam is explored in the opening section, likening the benefits and risks of gambling to those of the damming of the Colorado to irrigate California. There can be no doubt that the project wrested many Americans from poverty and unemployment in the depression, built a world-leading engineering structure that served to help the desert bloom, so to speak, including, of course, the re-making of Las Vegas. With the wisdom of hindsight and our increasing environmental awareness, the choking of the Colorado has had its downsides as does the gambling industry as we already know.

From the metaphorical re-examination of Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas, this current book focuses on some of the central aspects of the gambling industry in Australia and around the world, exploring how the industry is traveling in the 21st Century and asking why we are becoming so pre-occupied at this time with the processes of gambling. The prevalence of problem gambling is discussed; the numbers and how they are measured, along with various approaches to treatment and remediation for people affected adversely by their gambling behaviour.

Beyond the ‘bricks and mortar’ gambling and the electronic gaming machines of the latter part of the twentieth century, however, the development of new on-line gambling technologies is introducing different types of products, inducting new consumers to gambling products, changing the face of gambling in society, driving greater profits and potentially spawning more associated problems. While we are still struggling to understand the mechanisms through which more traditional gambling mechanisms affect consumers of these products and how best to remediate or treat such problems, a new form of the gambling phenomenon is being loosed upon modern consumers.

To return to the Hoover Dam metaphor; perhaps this new flood will be too strong for the dam or perhaps it will bring profits and benefits for all concerned. Before we can arrive at a decision about such potential costs and benefits, however, it will be important for us to see just whose money fuels this next phase of industry expansion and whether the profits of the industry are won at the cost of people with gambling problems; people who can’t afford to play the game, let along lose. Will the players in Macau, Singapore, Hong Kong, Vegas, Atlantic City, Sydney and other emerging markets in Asia, along with the new generation of consumers of on-line gambling products, at the end of the day see that their play has been worth the price paid or will the losses to individuals and communities out-weigh the benefits that flow, paradoxically, from this complex industry?

Does financial news predict stock returns? New evidence from Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks

The paper extends the time-series financial news data set constructed by Garcia (2013) and uses it to examine whether financial news predicts returns of Islamic stocks differently compared to non-Islamic (conventional) stocks. We find that they do. First, while both positive and negative worded news predict most Islamic and conventional stock returns, positive words have a larger impact on both types of stock returns. Second, shock to returns from financial news reverses only in part for some stocks. Third, for a mean-variance investor, investing in Islamic stocks is relatively more profitable than investing in the corresponding conventional stocks. Fourth, we show that profits are robust to a range of time-series risk factors, namely, market risk, size-based risk, and momentum-induced risk.

Critical success factors for implementing risk management systems in developing countries

A review of published studies on risk management in developing countries reveals that critical success factors for implementing risk management has remained an under-researched area of investigation. This paper is aimed at investigating the perceptions of construction professionals concerning the critical success factors (CSFs) for implementation of risk management systems (IRMS). Survey data was collected from 87 construction professionals from the Iranian construction industry as a developing country. The results indicate that four factors are regarded as highly critical: ‘support from managers’, ‘inclusion of risk management in construction education and training courses for construction practitioners’, ‘attempting to deliver projects systematically’, and ‘awareness and knowledge of the process for implementing risk management’. Assessing the associations among CSFs also highlighted the crucial role of enhancing the effectiveness of knowledge management practices in construction organisations. Study also revealed that parties involved in projects do not agree on the level of importance of CSFs for implementing risk management in developing countries. This study contributes to practice and research in several ways. For practice, it increases understanding of how closely knowledge management is associated with the implementation of risk management systems in developing countries. For research, the findings would encourage construction practitioners to support effective knowledge management as a precursor to higher levels of risk management implementation on construction projects.

"I can sit on the beach and punt through my mobile phone" : the influence of physical and online environments on the gambling risk behaviours of young men.

Gambling is rapidly emerging as an important public health issue, with gambling products causing considerable health and social harms to individuals, families and communities. Whilst researchers have raised concerns about online wagering environments, few studies have sought to explore how factors within different gambling environments (both online and land-based) may be influencing the wagering, and more broadly the gambling risk behaviours of young men. Using semi-structured interviews with 50 Australian men (20-37 years) who gambled on sport, we explored the ways in which online and land-based environments may be risk-promoting settings for gambling. This included the appeal factors associated with gambling in these environments, factors that encouraged individuals to gamble, and factors that encouraged individuals to engage in different, and more harmful types of gambling. Interviews were conducted over the course of a year (April 2015 - April 2016). We identified a number of situational and structural factors that promoted risky gambling environments for young men. In the online environment, gambling products had become exceedingly easy to access through mobile technologies, with young men subscribing to multiple accounts to access industry promotions. The intangibility of money within online environments impacted upon risk perceptions. In land-based environments, the social rituals associated with peer group behaviour and sport influenced risky patterns of gambling. The presence of both gambling and alcohol in pub environments led individuals to gamble more than they normally would, and on products that they would not normally gamble on. Land-based venues also facilitated access to multiple forms of gambling under the one roof. We identified a number of factors in both land and online environments that when combined, created risk-promoting settings for gambling among young men. By exploring these contextual conditions that give rise to gambling harm, we are better able to advocate for effective public health responses in creating environments that prevent harmful gambling.