Sampling sites, sampled birds and plants of young larch plantations in Tokachi district, eastern Hokkaido, northern Japan, 2011

Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Results of n-alkane biomarker analyses and paleoclimate reconstruction

The current study presents quantitative reconstructions of tree cover, annual precipitation and mean July temperature derived from the pollen record from Lake Billyakh (65°17'N, 126°47'E, 340 m above sea level) spanning the last ca. 50 kyr. The reconstruction of tree cover suggests presence of woody plants through the entire analyzed time interval, although trees played only a minor role in the vegetation around Lake Billyakh prior to 14 kyr BP (<5%). This result corroborates low percentages of tree pollen and low scores of the cold deciduous forest biome in the PG1755 record from Lake Billyakh. The reconstructed values of the mean temperature of the warmest month ~8-10 °C do not support larch forest or woodland around Lake Billyakh during the coldest phase of the last glacial between ~32 and ~15 kyr BP. However, modern cases from northern Siberia, ca. 750 km north of Lake Billyakh, demonstrate that individual larch plants can grow within shrub and grass tundra landscape in very low mean July temperatures of about 8 °C. This makes plausible our hypothesis that the western and southern foreland of the Verkhoyansk Mountains could provide enough moist and warm microhabitats and allow individual larch specimens to survive climatic extremes of the last glacial. Reconstructed mean values of precipitation are about 270 mm/yr during the last glacial interval. This value is almost 100 mm higher than modern averages reported for the extreme-continental north-eastern Siberia east of Lake Billyakh, where larch-dominated cold deciduous forest grows at present. This suggests that last glacial environments around Lake Billyakh were never too dry for larch to grow and that the summer warmth was the main factor, which limited tree growth during the last glacial interval. The n-alkane analysis of the Siberian plants presented in this study demonstrates rather complex alkane distribution patterns, which challenge the interpretation of the fossil records. In particular, extremely low n-alkane concentrations in the leaves of local coniferous trees and shrubs suggest that their contribution to the litter and therefore to the fossil lake sediments might be not high enough for tracing the Quaternary history of the needleleaved taxa using the n-alkane biomarker method.