A cross sectional observational study of child restraint use in Queensland following changes in legislation

As part of an evaluation of the 2010 legislation for child vehicle occupants in Queensland, road-side observations of private passenger vehicles were used to estimate the proportions of children 0-under 7 years travelling in each of the 5 different restraint types (eg. forward facing child restraint). Data was collected in 4 major population centres: Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Mackay and Townsville. Almost all children were restrained (95.1%, 95% CI 94.3-95.9%), with only 3.3% (95% CI 2.6-4.0%) clearly unrestrained and 44 (1.6%, 95% CI 1.1-2.1%) for whom restraint status could not be determined (‘unknown’). However, around 24.0% (95 CI 21.8-26.2%) of the target-aged children were deemed inappropriately restrained, primarily comprised of 3-6 year olds in seatbelts (18.7% of the 0-6 year olds, 95% CI 16.3-21.1%) or unrestrained (3.7% of the 0-6 year olds, 95% CI 2.5-4.9%) instead of booster seats. In addition, compliance appeared significantly lower for some regional locations where the proportion of children observed as completely unrestrained was relatively high and of concern

An Econometric Analysis of Inter-Firm Labour Mobility

This paper utilizes the Survey of Work History (1981) data to examine the importance of non-random sampling in the context of a model of interfirm labour mobility. The paper adopts Heckman's two-step procedure in order to estimate a three-equation model incorporating an individual's mobility status as endogenously determined. The main conclusion is that in estimating wage equations it is important to consider the role of job mobility and to correct for the effects of sample-selection bias. The results generally accord with those reported by Osberg et al. (1986) in the only previous Canadian study of job mobility in a sample-selection context.

Integrating driving and traffic simulators to study railway level crossing safety interventions : a methodology

Safety at Railway Level Crossings (RLXs) is an important issue within the Australian transport system. Crashes at RLXs involving road vehicles in Australia are estimated to cost $10 million each year. Such crashes are mainly due to human factors; unintentional errors contribute to 46% of all fatal collisions and are far more common than deliberate violations. This suggests that innovative intervention targeting drivers are particularly promising to improve RLX safety. In recent years there has been a rapid development of a variety of affordable technologies which can be used to increase driver’s risk awareness around crossings. To date, no research has evaluated the potential effects of such technologies at RLXs in terms of safety, traffic and acceptance of the technology. Integrating driving and traffic simulations is a safe and affordable approach for evaluating these effects. This methodology will be implemented in a driving simulator, where we recreated realistic driving scenario with typical road environments and realistic traffic. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating comprehensively potential benefits and negative effects of such interventions: this methodology evaluates driver awareness at RLXs , driver distraction and workload when using the technology . Subjective assessment on perceived usefulness and ease of use of the technology is obtained from standard questionnaires. Driving simulation will provide a model of driving behaviour at RLXs which will be used to estimate the effects of such new technology on a road network featuring RLX for different market penetrations using a traffic simulation. This methodology can assist in evaluating future safety interventions at RLXs.

The calculation of acoustic indices to characterise acoustic recordings of the environment

This technical report describes the methods used to obtain a list of acoustic indices that are used to characterise the structure and distribution of acoustic energy in recordings of the natural environment. In particular it describes methods for noise reduction from recordings of the environment and a fast clustering algorithm used to estimate the spectral richness of long recordings.

Langevin dynamics modeling of the water diffusion tensor in partially aligned collagen networks

In this work, a Langevin dynamics model of the diffusion of water in articular cartilage was developed. Numerical simulations of the translational dynamics of water molecules and their interaction with collagen fibers were used to study the quantitative relationship between the organization of the collagen fiber network and the diffusion tensor of water in model cartilage. Langevin dynamics was used to simulate water diffusion in both ordered and partially disordered cartilage models. In addition, an analytical approach was developed to estimate the diffusion tensor for a network comprising a given distribution of fiber orientations. The key findings are that (1) an approximately linear relationship was observed between collagen volume fraction and the fractional anisotropy of the diffusion tensor in fiber networks of a given degree of alignment, (2) for any given fiber volume fraction, fractional anisotropy follows a fiber alignment dependency similar to the square of the second Legendre polynomial of cos(θ), with the minimum anisotropy occurring at approximately the magic angle (θMA), and (3) a decrease in the principal eigenvalue and an increase in the transverse eigenvalues is observed as the fiber orientation angle θ progresses from 0◦ to 90◦. The corresponding diffusion ellipsoids are prolate for θ < θMA, spherical for θ ≈ θMA, and oblate for θ > θMA. Expansion of the model to include discrimination between the combined effects of alignment disorder and collagen fiber volume fraction on the diffusion tensor is discussed.

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to the sequential design for discriminating between rival continuous data models

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

An update and extension of the Canadian evidence on gender wage differentials

The paper utilizes the 1989 Labour Market Activity Survey to examine the gender wage differential in Canada. The aim is to update previous studies and extend earlier analysis in two significant ways. First, occupation is treated as endogenously determined. Secondly,the Zabalza and Arrufat(1985) imputation method is utilized to estimate the level of female labour market experience. The results suggest that the level of estimated gender discrimination is sensitive to the measure of labour market experience. The paper also concludes that intra-occupation wage effects explain most of gender wage gap.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

Sufficiently informative measurements for stability of approximate conditional mean estimates

This paper establishes sufficient conditions to bound the error in perturbed conditional mean estimates derived from a perturbed model (only the scalar case is shown in this paper but a similar result is expected to hold for the vector case). The results established here extend recent stability results on approximating information state filter recursions to stability results on the approximate conditional mean estimates. The presented filter stability results provide bounds for a wide variety of model error situations.

Urban, suburban, and rural variations in separation/divorce rape/sexual assault : results from the National Crime Victimization Survey

To date, no large study has looked at whether separation/divorce sexual assault varies across urban, suburban, and rural areas. The authors use 1992-2009 NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey) data to estimate the percentage of separation/divorce sexual assault against women in urban, suburban, and rural communities. In addition, the authors identify and compare the relative risk of sexual assault victimization for women across areas. Findings indicate that a higher percentage of rural divorced/separated women were victims of rape/sexual assault than were urban divorced/separated women. In addition, rural separated women are victims of intimate rape/sexual assault at significantly higher rates than their suburban and urban counterparts.

Understanding the fear of bicycle riding in Australia

Rates of bicycle commuting currently hover around 1 - 2% in most Australian capital cities, although 17.8% of Australians report riding at least once per week. The most commonly stated reason for choosing not to ride a bicycle is fear of motorised vehicles. This paper sets out to examine the literature and offer a commentary regarding the role fear plays as a barrier to bicycle riding. The paper also provides an estimate of the relative risk of driving and riding, on a per trip basis. An analysis of the existing literature finds fear of motorised traffic to be disproportionate to actual levels of risk to bicycle riders. Moreover, the health benefits of bicycling outweigh the risks of collision. Rather than actual collisions forming the basis of people’s fear, it appears plausible that near collisions (which occur far more frequently) may be a significant cause for the exaggerated levels of fear associated with bicycle riding. In order to achieve the Australian Government’s goal of doubling bike riding participation, this review suggests it will be necessary to counter fear through the creation of a low risk traffic environment (both perceived and real), involving marketing/promotional campaigns and the development of a comprehensive bicycle infrastructure network and lower speed limits.

Studies on bending limitations for the optimal fit of orthopaedic bone plates

Distal tibial fractures are now commonly treated via intermedullary plate fixation due to higher rates of union and lower rates of postoperative complications. However, patient specific bone morphology demands manual deformation of the plate to ensure appropriate fit along the bone Distal tibial fractures are now commonly treated via intermedullary plate fixation due to higher rates of union and lower rates of postoperative complications. However, patient specific bone morphology demands manual deformation of the plate to ensure appropriate fit along the bone contours, and depending on the material of the plate, different outcomes have been reported along with postoperative complications. A comparative analysis of Stainless Steel 316L and Ti-6Al-4V alloys was carried to estimate the safe bending limit for appropriate fits. The results from the ANSYS FEA simulations were validated with experiments based on ASTM F382-99. It is found that SS316L is better suited for large deformations (up to 16˚ in proximal tip and 7.5˚ in distal end) and Ti for smaller deformation contours (up to 3˚ in proximal tip and 1.8˚ in distal end). The results of this study have profound implications for the choice of plates based on preliminary radiographical fracture examinations to ensure better fixation and higher rates of union of distal tibial fractures.

CO2 emissions from the combustion of native Australian trees

Carbon dioxide (CO2), as a primary product of combustion, is a known factor affecting climate change and global warming. In Australia, CO2 emissions from biomass burning are a significant contributor to total carbon in the atmosphere and therefore, it is important to quantify the CO2 emission factors from biomass burning in order to estimate their magnitude and impact on the Australian atmosphere. This paper presents the quantification of CO2 emission factors for five common tree species found in South East Queensland forests, as well as several grasses taken from savannah lands in the Northern Territory of Australia, under controlled ‘fast burning’ and ‘slow burning’ laboratory conditions. The results showed that CO2 emission factors varied according to the type of vegetation and burning conditions, with emission factors for fast burning being 2574 ± 254 g/kg for wood, 394 ± 40 g/kg for branches and leaves, and 2181 ± 120 g/kg for grass. Under slow burning conditions, the CO2 emission factors were 218 ± 20 g/kg for wood, 392± 80 g/kg for branches and leaves, and 2027 ± 809 g/kg for grass.

Pedigree-free animal models : the relatedness matrix reloaded

Animal models typically require a known genetic pedigree to estimate quantitative genetic parameters. Here we test whether animal models can alternatively be based on estimates of relatedness derived entirely from molecular marker data. Our case study is the morphology of a wild bird population, for which we report estimates of the genetic variance-covariance matrices (G) of six morphological traits using three methods: the traditional animal model; a molecular marker-based approach to estimate heritability based on Ritland's pairwise regression method; and a new approach using a molecular genealogy arranged in a relatedness matrix (R) to replace the pedigree in an animal model. Using the traditional animal model, we found significant genetic variance for all six traits and positive genetic covariance among traits. The pairwise regression method did not return reliable estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in this population, with estimates of genetic variance and covariance typically being very small or negative. In contrast, we found mixed evidence for the use of the pedigree-free animal model. Similar to the pairwise regression method, the pedigree-free approach performed poorly when the full-rank R matrix based on the molecular genealogy was employed. However, performance improved substantially when we reduced the dimensionality of the R matrix in order to maximize the signal to noise ratio. Using reduced-rank R matrices generated estimates of genetic variance that were much closer to those from the traditional model. Nevertheless, this method was less reliable at estimating covariances, which were often estimated to be negative. Taken together, these results suggest that pedigree-free animal models can recover quantitative genetic information, although the signal remains relatively weak. It remains to be determined whether this problem can be overcome by the use of a more powerful battery of molecular markers and improved methods for reconstructing genealogies.

Gene duplication is an evolutionary mechanism for expanding spectral diversity in the long-wavelength photopigments of butterflies

Butterfly long-wavelength (L) photopigments are interesting for comparative studies of adaptive evolution because of the tremendous phenotypic variation that exists in their wavelength of peak absorbance (lambda(max) value). Here we present a comprehensive survey of L photopigment variation by measuring lambda(max) in 12 nymphalid and 1 riodinid species using epi-microspectrophotometry. Together with previous data, we find that L photopigment lambda(max) varies from 510-565 nm in 22 nymphalids, with an even broader 505- to 600-nm range in riodinids. We then surveyed the L opsin genes for which lambda(max) values are available as well as from related taxa and found 2 instances of L opsin gene duplication within nymphalids, in Hermeuptychia hermes and Amathusia phidippus, and 1 instance within riodinids, in the metalmark butterfly Apodemia mormo. Using maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood ancestral state reconstructions to map the evolution of spectral shifts within the L photopigments of nymphalids, we estimate the ancestral pigment had a lambda(max) = 540 nm +/- 10 nm standard error and that blueshifts in wavelength have occurred at least 4 times within the family. We used ancestral state reconstructions to investigate the importance of several amino acid substitutions (Ile17Met, Ala64Ser, Asn70Ser, and Ser137Ala) previously shown to have evolved under positive selection that are correlated with blue spectral shifts. These reconstructions suggest that the Ala64Ser substitution has indeed occurred along the newly identified blueshifted L photopigment lineages. Substitutions at the other 3 sites may also be involved in the functional diversification of L photopigments. Our data strongly suggest that there are limits to the evolution of L photopigment spectral shifts among species with only one L opsin gene and that opsin gene duplication broadens the potential range of lambda(max) values.