Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Non-invasive assessment of tear film surface quality

The tear film plays an important role preserving the health of the ocular surface and maintaining the optimal refractive power of the cornea. Moreover dry eye syndrome is one of the most commonly reported eye health problems. This syndrome is caused by abnormalities in the properties of the tear film. Current clinical tools to assess the tear film properties have shown certain limitations. The traditional invasive methods for the assessment of tear film quality, which are used by most clinicians, have been criticized for the lack of reliability and/or repeatability. A range of non-invasive methods of tear assessment have been investigated, but also present limitations. Hence no “gold standard” test is currently available to assess the tear film integrity. Therefore, improving techniques for the assessment of the tear film quality is of clinical significance and the main motivation for the work described in this thesis. In this study the tear film surface quality (TFSQ) changes were investigated by means of high-speed videokeratoscopy (HSV). In this technique, a set of concentric rings formed in an illuminated cone or a bowl is projected on the anterior cornea and their reflection from the ocular surface imaged on a charge-coupled device (CCD). The reflection of the light is produced in the outer most layer of the cornea, the tear film. Hence, when the tear film is smooth the reflected image presents a well structure pattern. In contrast, when the tear film surface presents irregularities, the pattern also becomes irregular due to the light scatter and deviation of the reflected light. The videokeratoscope provides an estimate of the corneal topography associated with each Placido disk image. Topographical estimates, which have been used in the past to quantify tear film changes, may not always be suitable for the evaluation of all the dynamic phases of the tear film. However the Placido disk image itself, which contains the reflected pattern, may be more appropriate to assess the tear film dynamics. A set of novel routines have been purposely developed to quantify the changes of the reflected pattern and to extract a time series estimate of the TFSQ from the video recording. The routine extracts from each frame of the video recording a maximized area of analysis. In this area a metric of the TFSQ is calculated. Initially two metrics based on the Gabor filter and Gaussian gradient-based techniques, were used to quantify the consistency of the pattern’s local orientation as a metric of TFSQ. These metrics have helped to demonstrate the applicability of HSV to assess the tear film, and the influence of contact lens wear on TFSQ. The results suggest that the dynamic-area analysis method of HSV was able to distinguish and quantify the subtle, but systematic degradation of tear film surface quality in the inter-blink interval in contact lens wear. It was also able to clearly show a difference between bare eye and contact lens wearing conditions. Thus, the HSV method appears to be a useful technique for quantitatively investigating the effects of contact lens wear on the TFSQ. Subsequently a larger clinical study was conducted to perform a comparison between HSV and two other non-invasive techniques, lateral shearing interferometry (LSI) and dynamic wavefront sensing (DWS). Of these non-invasive techniques, the HSV appeared to be the most precise method for measuring TFSQ, by virtue of its lower coefficient of variation. While the LSI appears to be the most sensitive method for analyzing the tear build-up time (TBUT). The capability of each of the non-invasive methods to discriminate dry eye from normal subjects was also investigated. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to assess the ability of each method to predict dry eye syndrome. The LSI technique gave the best results under both natural blinking conditions and in suppressed blinking conditions, which was closely followed by HSV. The DWS did not perform as well as LSI or HSV. The main limitation of the HSV technique, which was identified during the former clinical study, was the lack of the sensitivity to quantify the build-up/formation phase of the tear film cycle. For that reason an extra metric based on image transformation and block processing was proposed. In this metric, the area of analysis was transformed from Cartesian to Polar coordinates, converting the concentric circles pattern into a quasi-straight lines image in which a block statistics value was extracted. This metric has shown better sensitivity under low pattern disturbance as well as has improved the performance of the ROC curves. Additionally a theoretical study, based on ray-tracing techniques and topographical models of the tear film, was proposed to fully comprehend the HSV measurement and the instrument’s potential limitations. Of special interested was the assessment of the instrument’s sensitivity under subtle topographic changes. The theoretical simulations have helped to provide some understanding on the tear film dynamics, for instance the model extracted for the build-up phase has helped to provide some insight into the dynamics during this initial phase. Finally some aspects of the mathematical modeling of TFSQ time series have been reported in this thesis. Over the years, different functions have been used to model the time series as well as to extract the key clinical parameters (i.e., timing). Unfortunately those techniques to model the tear film time series do not simultaneously consider the underlying physiological mechanism and the parameter extraction methods. A set of guidelines are proposed to meet both criteria. Special attention was given to a commonly used fit, the polynomial function, and considerations to select the appropriate model order to ensure the true derivative of the signal is accurately represented. The work described in this thesis has shown the potential of using high-speed videokeratoscopy to assess tear film surface quality. A set of novel image and signal processing techniques have been proposed to quantify different aspects of the tear film assessment, analysis and modeling. The dynamic-area HSV has shown good performance in a broad range of conditions (i.e., contact lens, normal and dry eye subjects). As a result, this technique could be a useful clinical tool to assess tear film surface quality in the future.

Evolutionary biology of Gondwanan non-biting midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The potential restriction to effective dispersal and gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation can apply to multiple levels of evolutionary scale; from the fragmentation of ancient supercontinents driving diversification and speciation on disjunct landmasses, to the isolation of proximate populations as a result of their inability to cross intervening unsuitable habitat. Investigating the role of habitat fragmentation in driving diversity within and among taxa can thus include inferences of phylogenetic relationships among taxa, assessments of intraspecific phylogeographic structure and analyses of gene flow among neighbouring populations. The proposed Gondwanan clade within the chironomid (non-biting midge) subfamily Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae) represents a model system for investigating the role that population fragmentation and isolation has played at different evolutionary scales. A pilot study by Krosch et al (2009) indentified several highly divergent lineages restricted to ancient rainforest refugia and limited gene flow among proximate sites within a refuge for one member of this clade, Echinocladius martini Cranston. This study provided a framework for investigating the evolutionary history of this taxon and its relatives more thoroughly. Populations of E. martini were sampled in the Paluma bioregion of northeast Queensland to investigate patterns of fine-scale within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a refuge more rigorously. Data was incorporated from Krosch et al (2009) and additional sites were sampled up- and downstream of the original sites. Analyses of genetic structure revealed strong natal site fidelity and high genetic structure among geographically proximate streams. Little evidence was found for regular headwater exchange among upstream sites, but there was distinct evidence for rare adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, the distribution of shared haplotypes implied that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to the natal stream channel. Patterns of regional phylogeographic structure were examined in two related austral orthoclad taxa – Naonella forsythi Boothroyd from New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Sæther and Andersen from southern South America – to provide a comparison with patterns revealed in their close relative E. martini. Both taxa inhabit tectonically active areas of the southern hemisphere that have also experienced several glaciation events throughout the Plio-Pleistocene that are thought to have affected population structure dramatically in many taxa. Four highly divergent lineages estimated to have diverged since the late Miocene were revealed in each taxon, mirroring patterns in E. martini; however, there was no evidence for local geographical endemism, implying substantial range expansion post-diversification. The differences in pattern evident among the three related taxa were suggested to have been influenced by variation in the responses of closed forest habitat to climatic fluctuations during interglacial periods across the three landmasses. Phylogeographic structure in E. martini was resolved at a continental scale by expanding upon the sampling design of Krosch et al (2009) to encompass populations in southeast Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Patterns of phylogeographic structure were consistent with expectations and several previously unrecognised lineages were revealed from central- and southern Australia that were geographically endemic to closed forest refugia. Estimated divergence times were congruent with the timing of Plio-Pleistocene rainforest contractions across the east coast of Australia. This suggested that dispersal and gene flow of E. martini among isolated refugia was highly restricted and that this taxon was susceptible to the impacts of habitat change. Broader phylogenetic relationships among taxa considered to be members of this Gondwanan orthoclad group were resolved in order to test expected patterns of evolutionary affinities across the austral continents. The inferred phylogeny and estimated divergence times did not accord with expected patterns based on the geological sequence of break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent and implied instead several transoceanic dispersal events post-vicariance. Difficulties in appropriate taxonomic sampling and accurate calibration of molecular phylogenies notwithstanding, the sampling regime implemented in the current study has been the most intensive yet performed for austral members of the Orthocladiinae and unsurprisingly has revealed both novel taxa and phylogenetic relationships within and among described genera. Several novel associations between life stages are made here for both described and previously unknown taxa. Investigating evolutionary relationships within and among members of this clade of proposed Gondwanan orthoclad taxa has demonstrated that a complex interaction between historical population fragmentation and dispersal at several levels of evolutionary scale has been important in driving diversification in this group. While interruptions to migration, colonisation and gene flow driven by population fragmentation have clearly contributed to the development and maintenance of much of the diversity present in this group, long-distance dispersal has also played a role in influencing diversification of continental biotas and facilitating gene flow among disjunct populations.

A socially responsible model of micro-credit delivery to support sustainable community development in emerging economies

Micro-finance, which includes micro-credit as one of its core services, has become an important component of a range of business models – from those that operate on a strictly economic basis to those that come from a philanthropic base, through Non Government Organisations (NGOs). Its success is often measured by the number of loans issued, their size, and the repayment rates. This paper has a dual purpose: to identify whether the models currently used to deliver micro-credit services to the poor are socially responsible and to suggest a new model of delivery that addresses some of the social responsibility issues, while supporting community development. The proposed model is currently being implemented in Beira, the second largest city in Mozambique. Mozambique exhibits many of the characteristics found in other African countries so the model, if successful, may have implications for other poor African nations as well as other developing economies.

A Raman spectroscopic study of copiapites Fe2+Fe3+(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O: environmental implications

Raman spectroscopy has been used to study selected mineral samples of the copiapite group. Copiapite (Fe2+Fe3+(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O) is a secondary mineral formed through the oxidn. of pyrite. Minerals of the copiapite group have the general formula AFe4(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O, where A has a + 2 charge and can be either magnesium, iron, copper, calcium and/or zinc. The formula can also be B2/3Fe4(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O, where B has a + 3 charge and may be either aluminum or iron. For each mineral, two Raman bands are obsd. at around 992 and 1029 cm-1, assigned to the (SO4)2-ν1 sym. stretching mode. The observation of two bands provides evidence for the existence of two non-equiv. sulfate anions in the mineral structure. Three Raman bands at 1112, 1142 and 1161 cm-1 are obsd. in the Raman spectrum of copiapites, indicating a redn. of symmetry of the sulfate anion in the copiapite structure. This redn. in symmetry is supported by multiple bands in the ν2 and ν4(SO4)2- spectral regions.

Single crystal Raman spectroscopy of brandholzite Mg[Sb(OH)6]2•6H2O and bottinoite Ni[Sb(OH)6]2•6H2O and the polycrystalline Raman spectrum of mopungite Na[Sb(OH)6]

The single crystal Raman spectra of minerals brandholzite and bottinoite, formula M[Sb(OH)6]2•6H2O, where M is Mg+2 and Ni+2 respectively, and the non-aligned Raman spectrum of mopungite, formula Na[Sb(OH)6], are presented for the first time. The mixed metal minerals comprise of alternating layers of [Sb(OH)6]-1 octahedra and mixed [M(H2O)6]+2 / [Sb(OH)6]-1 octahedra. Mopungite comprises hydrogen bonded layers of [Sb(OH)6]-1 octahedra linked within the layer by Na+ ions. The spectra of the three minerals were dominated by the Sb-O symmetric stretch of the [Sb(OH)6]-1 octahedron, which occurs at approximately 620 cm-1. The Raman spectrum of mopungite showed many similarities to spectra of the di-octahedral minerals informing the view that the Sb octahedra gave rise to most of the Raman bands observed, particularly below 1200 cm-1. Assignments have been proposed based on the spectral comparison between the minerals, prior literature and density field theory calculations of the vibrational spectra of the free [Sb(OH)6]-1 and [M(H2O)6]+2 octahedra by a model chemistry of B3LYP/6-31G(d) and lanl2dz for the Sb atom. The single crystal data spectra showed good mode separation, allowing the majority of the bands to be assigned a symmetry species of A or E.

Optical non-destructive evaluation of articular cartilage integrity : a review

This paper reviews the current status of the application of optical non-destructive methods, particularly infrared (IR) and near infrared (NIR), in the evaluation of the physiological integrity of articular cartilage. It is concluded that a significant amount of work is still required in order to achieve specificity and clinical applicability of these methods in the assessment and treatment of dysfunctional articular joints.

A vibrational spectroscopic study of the mixed anion mineral sanjuanite Al2(PO4)(SO4)(OH)•9H2O

The mineral sanjuanite Al2(PO4)(SO4)(OH)•9H2O has been characterised by Raman spectroscopy complimented by infrared spectroscopy. The mineral is characterised by an intense Raman band at 984 cm-1, assigned to the (PO4)3- ν1 symmetric stretching mode. A shoulder band at 1037 cm-1 is attributed to the (SO4)2- ν1 symmetric stretching mode. Two Raman bands observed at 1102 and 1148 cm-1 are assigned to (PO4)3- and (SO4)2- ν3 antisymmetric stretching modes. Multiple bands provide evidence for the reduction in symmetry of both anions. This concept is supported by the multiple sulphate and phosphate bending modes. Raman spectroscopy shows that there are more than one non-equivalent water molecules in the sanjuanite structure. There is evidence that structural disorder exists, shown by the complex set of overlapping bands in the Raman and infrared spectra. At least two types of water are identified with different hydrogen bond strengths. The involvement of water in the sanjuanite structure is essential for the mineral stability.

Sustainable assessment for large science classes : non-multiple choice, randomised assignments through a Learning Management System

This paper reports on the development of a tool that generates randomised, non-multiple choice assessment within the BlackBoard Learning Management System interface. An accepted weakness of multiple-choice assessment is that it cannot elicit learning outcomes from upper levels of Biggs’ SOLO taxonomy. However, written assessment items require extensive resources for marking, and are susceptible to copying as well as marking inconsistencies for large classes. This project developed an assessment tool which is valid, reliable and sustainable and that addresses the issues identified above. The tool provides each student with an assignment assessing the same learning outcomes, but containing different questions, with responses in the form of words or numbers. Practice questions are available, enabling students to obtain feedback on their approach before submitting their assignment. Thus, the tool incorporates automatic marking (essential for large classes), randomised tasks to each student (reducing copying), the capacity to give credit for working (feedback on the application of theory), and the capacity to target higher order learning outcomes by requiring students to derive their answers rather than choosing them. Results and feedback from students are presented, along with technical implementation details.