951 resultados para ecological model
Resumo:
In recent years, progress has been made in modelling long chain branched polymers by the introduction of the so-called pompom model. Initially developed by McLeish and Larson (1998), the model has undergone several improvements or alterations, leading to the development of new formulations. Some of these formulations however suffer from certain mathematical defects. The purpose of the present paper is to review some of the formulations of the pom-pom constitutive model, and to investigate their possible mathematical defects. Next, an alternative formulation is proposed, which does not appear to exhibit mathematical defects, and we explore its modelling performance by comparing the predictions with experiments in non-trivial rheometric flows of an LDPE melt. The selected rheometric flows are the double step strain, as well as the large amplitude oscillatory shear experiments. For LAOS experiments, the comparison involves the use of Fourier-transform analysis.
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Objective: To test a conceptual model linking parental physical activity orientations, parental support for physical activity, and children's self-efficacy perceptions with physical activity participation. Participants and Setting: The sample consisted of 380 students in grades 7 through 12 (mean age, 14.0 +/- 1.6 years) and their parents. Data collection took place during the fall of 1996. Main Outcome Measures: Parents completed a questionnaire assessing their physical activity habits, enjoyment of physical activity, beliefs regarding the importance of physical activity, and supportive behaviors for their child's physical activity. Students completed a 46-item inventory assessing physical activity during the previous 7 days and a 5-item physical activity self-efficacy scale. The model was tested via observed variable path analysis using structural equation modeling techniques (AMOS 4.0). Results: An initial model, in which parent physical activity orientations predicted child physical activity via parental support and child self-efficacy, did not provide an acceptable fit to the data. Inclusion of a direct path from parental support to child physical activity and deletion of a nonsignificant path from parental physical activity to child physical activity significantly improved model fit. Standardized path coefficients for the revised model ranged from 0.17 to 0.24, and all were significant at the p < 0.0001 level. Conclusions: Parental support was an important correlate of youth physical activity, acting directly or indirectly through its influence on self-efficacy. Physical activity interventions targeted at youth should include and evaluate the efficacy of individual-level and community-level strategies to increase parents' capacity to provide instrumental and motivational support for their children's physical activity.
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This paper presents a new model based on thermodynamic and molecular interaction between molecules to describe the vapour-liquid phase equilibria and surface tension of pure component. The model assumes that the bulk fluid can be characterised as set of parallel layers. Because of this molecular structure, we coin the model as the molecular layer structure theory (MLST). Each layer has two energetic components. One is the interaction energy of one molecule of that layer with all surrounding layers. The other component is the intra-layer Helmholtz free energy, which accounts for the internal energy and the entropy of that layer. The equilibrium between two separating phases is derived from the minimum of the grand potential, and the surface tension is calculated as the excess of the Helmholtz energy of the system. We test this model with a number of components, argon, krypton, ethane, n-butane, iso-butane, ethylene and sulphur hexafluoride, and the results are very satisfactory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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The kinetics of chain reactions of octanedithiol with styrene, thermally initiated with TX29B50 (a 50:50 wt% solution of TX29 diperoxy initiator in a phthalate plasticizer), have been studied over a range of initiator concentrations, a range of mixture formulations and a range of temperatures. This system has been investigated as a model system for the reactions of polyfunctional thiols with divinyl benzene. The reactions have been shown to follow first-order kinetics for both the thiol and the ene species and to be characterized by a dependence on the initiator concentration to the power of one half. The kinetic rate parameters have been shown to adhere to Arrhenius behaviour. A kinetic model for the chain reactions for this system has been proposed. (C) 2003 Society of Chemical Industry.
Resumo:
The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.
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This paper describes the modification of a two-dimensional finite element long wave hydrodynamic model in order to predict the net current and water levels attributable to the influences of waves. Tests examine the effects of the application of wave induced forces, including comparisons to a physical experiment. An example of a real river system is presented with comparisons to measured data, which demonstrate the importance of simulating the combined effects of tides and waves upon hydrodynamic behavior. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The presence of toxic cyanobacteria in drinking water reservoirs renders the need to develop treatment methods for the 'safe' removal of their associated toxins. Chlorine has been shown to successfully remove a range of cyanotoxins including microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins. Each cyanotoxin requires specific treatment parameters, particularly solution pH and free chlorine residual. However, currently there has not been any investigation into the toxicological effect of solutions treated for the removal of these cyanotoxins by chlorine. Using the P53(def) transgenic mouse model mate and female C57BL/6J hybrid mice were used to investigate potential cancer inducing effects from such oral dosing solutions. Both purified cyanotoxins and toxic cell-free extract cyanobacterial solutions were chlorinated and administered over 90 and 170 days (respectively) in drinking water. No increase in cancer was found in any treatment. The parent cyanotoxins, microcystins, cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxins were readily removed by chlorine. There was no significant increase in the disinfection byproducts trihalomethanes or haloacetic acids, levels found were well below guideline values. Histological examination identified no effect of treatment solutions except male mice treated with chlorinated cylindrospermopsin (as a cell free extract). In this instance 40% of males were found to have fatty vacuolation in their livers, cause unknown. It is recommended that further toxicology be undertaken on chlorinated cyanobacterial solutions, particularly for non-genotoxic carcinogenic compounds, for example the Tg. AC transgenic mouse model. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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A Reserva Extrativista Marinha (RESEXMAR) do Corumbau foi criada no ano de 2000, a partir de uma ação coletiva, iniciada em 1997 por meio das lideranças de pescadores locais, na busca de instrumento jurídico que garantisse o acesso exclusivo dos recursos pesqueiros contra a atividade da pesca comercial de camarão sete-barbas que se instalou na década de 1980. Durante o processo de criação da RESEXMAR do Corumbau, os pescadores obtiveram apoio de órgãos governamentais, como a Coordenação Nacional de Populações Tradicionais (CNPT) e de entidades ambientalistas do terceiro setor – Associação Pradense de Proteção Ambiental (APPA), e posteriormente a Conservation International do Brasil (CI-Brasil). Entretanto, após a criação da RESEXMAR do Corumbau – entre os anos 2000 e 2002 – foi elaborado o Plano de Manejo que orientaria a gestão da Unidade de Conservação (UC). O documento foi capitaneado pela equipe técnica e científica vinculada à CI-Brasil, tendo como ponto de destaque a criação de áreas de exclusão total da atividade da pesca, por meio da Zona de Proteção Marinha (ZPM). A ideia de uma ZPM, para a CI-Brasil, era que de forma indireta e em médio e longo prazo, os pescadores se beneficiariam com o possível aumento de produção de pescado, contanto que 30% de cobertura de recifes tivesse algum tipo de proteção dos processos ecológicos, tais como reprodução e crescimento de espécies. Durante as discussões do Plano de Manejo e atualmente uma parcela de pescadores locais contestaram os limites da ZPM, pois iria restringir o acesso aos recursos pesqueiros. No entanto, tal contestação foi suprimida pelas relações não formais que os membros da CI-Brasil possuíam com o núcleo familiar principal da Vila do Corumbau, forçando os demais em um acordo formal temporário. Tal questionamento evidenciou um conflito de conjunto de normas distintas entre pescadores artesanais em relação à CI-Brasil e IBAMA: a pesca artesanal ‒ um tipo de ação que segue normas específicas das quais elementos humanos e não humanos interagem conjuntamente, evidenciando um conhecimento prático e corporizado constituindo um modelo compreensivo de mundo e de natureza; conceitos modernos e globalizantes de uma natureza totalmente desvinculada das práticas locais artesanais, com forte articulação de uma entidade ambientalista de alcance internacional, guiada pela emergência das questões ambientais, imprimindo no local (o lugar da prática da pesca tradicional) a ideia de um espaço (Áreas Marinhas Protegidas), desencaixado de formas específicas de natureza/culturas.
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A distribuição geográfica de um táxon é limitada por aspectos ecológicos e históricos. Muitas atividades humanas têm causado modificações na cobertura vegetal, o que leva à fragmentação e perda do habitat. Isso tem levado à extinção local de populações de várias espécies, alterando sua distribuição geográfica. Entre elas estão as duas espécies do gênero Brachyteles (os muriquis), que são primatas endêmicos de um dos biomas mais afetados por esses processos, a Mata Atlântica. A União Internacional para a Conservação da Natureza (UICN) é uma organização que busca conservar a biodiversidade. Entre outros critérios, utiliza o conhecimento sobre as distribuições geográficas restritas das espécies para classificá-las em categorias de ameaça de extinção, nas chamadas listas vermelhas. Para isso, utiliza parâmetros espaciais, cujos resultados indicam o risco de extinção de determinado táxon em relação à sua distribuição geográfica. Muitas vezes os cálculos desses parâmetros são realizados de maneira subjetiva, de maneira que é importante a busca de métodos que tornem as classificações mais objetivas, precisas e replicáveis. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho testou diferentes métodos de cálculos de três parâmetros relacionados à distribuição geográfica de B. hypoxanthus e B. arachnoides. Tratam-se de espécies ameaçadas de extinção, com localidades de ocorrência bem conhecidas, que foram profundamente afetadas pela degradação da Mata Atlântica. Assim, podem ser consideradas bons modelos para essas análises. Foi construído um banco de dados de localidades de ocorrência atuais das duas espécies. Por meio de abordagens de Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG), foram estimadas a Extensão de Ocorrência (EOO) através de Mínimo Polígono Convexo e α-hull e Área de Ocupação (AOO) e Subpopulações por meio de métodos de grids, buffers circulares e α-hull, em diferentes escalas espaciais. Os resultados dos cálculos desses parâmetros foram comparados para identificar as abordagens e escalas mais adequadas para a avaliação de risco de extinção. Esses resultados indicam que as listas de localidades e os mapas de distribuição disponibilizados pela UICN precisam ser atualizados. Além disso, sugerem que α-hull é uma abordagem vantajosa para EOO e o método de buffers é mais adequado para os parâmetros de AOO e Subpopulações, quando utiliza escalas espaciais menores. Também foi utilizada a ferramenta GeoCAT, para as duas espécies. Essa ferramenta, por realizar análises de EOO e AOO instantâneas e por seus resultados serem semelhantes aos de outras análises, serve como uma abordagem preliminar de risco de extinção baseado no critério de distribuição geográfica.
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This article recommends a new way to improve Refugee Status Determination (RSD) procedures by proposing a network society communicative model based on active involvement and dialogue among all implementing partners. This model, named after proposals from Castells, Habermas, Apel, Chimni, and Betts, would be mediated by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), whose role would be modeled after that of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) practice.
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This paper analyzes People's Republic of China (PRC) economic and political ascendance in the 21st century focusing on the evolution of the sui generis economic development model and its significances of the evolution of relationship between China and the developing countries in the peripheral "Global South." The objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between China and the Global South (Africa and South America) in the 21st century, characterized as a new Center-periphery global network power based on trade and investment that we call as "Asian Consensus."
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The historic center of the Portuguese city of Guimarães is a world heritage site (UNESCO) since 2001, having hosted the European Capital of Culture (ECOC) in 2012. In this sense, Guimarães has made a major effort in promoting tourism, positioning itself as an urban and cultural tourism destination. The present paper has two objectives. The first, to examine if an existing push and pull motivation model finds statistical support with regard to the population of the municipality of Guimarães, a cultural tourism destination. The second, to study the role that important socio-demographic variables, such as gender, age, and education, play in determining travel motivations of residents from this municipality. Insight on tourism motivation may be an important policy tool for tourism planners and managers in the development of products and marketing strategies. The empirical analysis is undertaken based on questionnaires administered in 2012 to residents of Guimarães. The present study shows that gender, age and education make a difference with regard to travel motivations.
Resumo:
Management systems standards (MSSs) have developed in an unprecedented manner in the last few years. These MSS cover a wide array of different disciplines, aims and activities of organisations. Also, organisations are populated with an enormous diversity of independent management systems (MSs). An integrated management system (IMS) tends to integrate some or all components of the business. Maximising their integration in one coherent and efficient MS is increasingly a strategic priority and constitutes an opportunity for businesses to be more competitive and consequently, promote its sustainable success. Those organisations that are quicker and more efficient in their integration and continuous improvement will have a competitive advantage in obtaining sustainable value in our global and competitive business world. Several scholars have proposed various theoretical approaches regarding the integration of management sub-systems, leading to the conclusion that there is no common practice for all organisations as they encompass different characteristics. One other author shows that several tangible and intangible gains for organisations, as well as to their internal and external stakeholders, are achieved with the integration of the individual standardised MSs. The purpose of this work was to conceive a model, Flexible, Integrator and Lean for IMSs, according to ISO 9001 for quality; ISO 14001 for environment and OHSAS 18001 for occupational health and safety (IMS–QES), that can be adapted and progressively assimilate other MSs, such as, SA 8000/ISO 26000 for social accountability, ISO 31000 for risk management and ISO/IEC 27001 for information security management, among others. The IMS–QES model was designed in the real environment of an industrial Portuguese small and medium enterprise, that over the years has been adopting, gradually, in whole or in part, individual MSSs. The developed model is based on a preliminary investigation conducted through a questionnaire. The strategy and research methods have taken into consideration the case study. Among the main findings of the survey we highlight: the creation of added value for the business through the elimination of several organisational wastes; the integrated management of the sustainability components; the elimination of conflicts between independent MS; dialogue with the main stakeholders and commitment to their ongoing satisfaction and increased contribution to the company’s competitiveness; and greater valorisation and motivation of employees as a result of the expansion of their skill base, actions and responsibilities, with their consequent empowerment. A set of key performance indicators (KPIs) constitute the support, in a perspective of business excellence, to the follow up of the organisation’s progress towards the vision and achievement of the defined objectives in the context of each component of the IMS model. The conceived model had many phases and the one presented in this work is the last required for the integration of quality, environment, safety and others individual standardised MSs. Globally, the investigation results, by themselves, justified and prioritised the conception of an IMS–QES model, to be implemented at the company where the investigation was conducted, but also a generic model of an IMS, which may be more flexible, integrator and lean as possible, potentiating the efficiency, added value both in the present and, fundamentally, for future.