Population Assessment of an Endangered Shorebird: the Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) in Eastern Canada

Small, at-risk populations are those for which accurate demographic information is most crucial to conservation and recovery, but also where data collection is constrained by logistical challenges and small sample sizes. Migratory animals in particular may experience a wide range of threats to survival and reproduction throughout each annual cycle, and identification of life stages most critical to persistence may be especially difficult for these populations. The endangered eastern Canadian breeding population of Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus melodus) was estimated at only 444 adults in 2005, and extensive effort has been invested in conservation activities, reproductive monitoring, and marking of individual birds, providing a comprehensive data set on population dynamics since 1998. We used these data to build a matrix projection model for two Piping Plover population segments that nest in eastern Canada in order to estimate both deterministic and stochastic rates of population growth (λd and λs, respectively). Annual population censuses suggested moderate growth in abundance between 1998–2003, but vital rate estimates indicated that this temporary growth may be replaced by declines in the long term, both in southern Nova Scotia (λd = 1.0043, λs = 0.9263) and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (λd = 0.9651, λs = 0.8214). Nonetheless, confidence intervals on λ estimates were relatively wide, highlighting remaining uncertainty in future population trajectories. Differences in projected growth between regions appear to be driven by low estimated juvenile post-fledging survival in the Gulf, but threats to juveniles of both population segments following departure from nesting beaches remain unidentified. Similarly, λ in both population segments was particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival as expected for most migratory birds, but very little is understood about the threats to Piping Plover survival during migration and overwintering. Consequently, we suggest that future recovery efforts for these and other vulnerable migrants should quantify and manage the largely unknown sources of both adult and juvenile mortality during non-breeding seasons while maintaining current levels of nesting habitat protection.

Contrasting Seasonal Survivorship of Two Migratory Songbirds Wintering in Threatened Mangrove Forests

Long-distance migrants wintering in tropical regions face a number of critical conservation threats throughout their lives, but seasonal estimates of key demographic parameters such as winter survival are rare. Using mist-netting-based mark-recapture data collected in coastal Costa Rica over a six-year period, we examined variation in within- and between-winter survivorship of the Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea; 753 young and 376 adults banded), a declining neotropical habitat specialist that depends on threatened mangrove forests during the nonbreeding season. We derived parallel seasonal survivorship estimates for the Northern Waterthrush (Seiurus noveboracensis; 564 young and 93 adults banded), a cohabitant mangrove specialist that has not shown the same population decline in North America, to assess whether contrasting survivorship might contribute to the observed differences in the species’ population trajectories. Although average annual survival probability was relatively similar between the two species for both young and adult birds, monthly estimates indicated that relative to Northern Waterthrush, Prothonotary Warblers exhibited: greater interannual variation in survivorship, especially within winters; greater variation in survivorship among the three study sites; lower average between-winter survivorship, particularly among females, and; a sharp decline in between-winter survivorship from 2003 to 2009 for both age groups and both sexes. Rather than identifying one seasonal vital rate as a causal factor of Prothonotary Warbler population declines, our species comparison suggests that the combination of variable within-winter survival with decreasing between-winter survival demands a multi-seasonal approach to the conservation of this and other tropical-wintering migrants.

Do the Golden-winged Warbler and Blue-winged Warbler Exhibit Species-specific Differences in their Breeding Habitat Use?

We compared habitat features of Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) territories in the presence and absence of the Blue-winged Warbler (V. cyanoptera) on reclaimed coal mines in southeastern Kentucky, USA. Our objective was to determine whether there are species specific differences in habitat that can be manipulated to encourage population persistence of the Golden-winged Warbler. When compared with Blue-winged Warblers, Golden-winged Warblers established territories at higher elevations and with greater percentages of grass and canopy cover. Mean territory size (minimum convex polygon) was 1.3 ha (se = 0.1) for Golden-winged Warbler in absence of Blue-winged Warbler, 1.7 ha (se = 0.3) for Golden-winged Warbler coexisting with Blue-winged Warbler, and 2.1 ha (se = 0.3) for Blue-winged Warbler. Territory overlap occurred within and between species (18 of n = 73 territories, 24.7%). All Golden-winged and Blue-winged Warblers established territories that included an edge between reclaimed mine land and mature forest, as opposed to establishing territories in open grassland/shrubland habitat. The mean distance territories extended from a forest edge was 28.0 m (se = 3.8) for Golden-winged Warbler in absence of Blue-winged Warbler, 44.7 m (se = 5.7) for Golden-winged Warbler coexisting with Blue-winged Warbler, and 33.1 m (se = 6.1) for Blue-winged Warbler. Neither territory size nor distances to forest edges differed significantly between Golden-winged Warbler in presence or absence of Blue-winged Warbler. According to Monte Carlo analyses, orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata), green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica) seedlings and saplings, and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) saplings were indicative of sites with only Golden-winged Warblers. Sericea lespedeza, goldenrod (Solidago spp.), clematis vine (Clematis spp.), and blackberry (Rubus spp.) were indicative of sites where both species occurred. Our findings complement recent genetic studies and add another factor for examining Golden-winged Warbler population decline. Further, information from our study will aid land managers in manipulating habitat for the Golden-winged Warbler.

A Demographic Model to Evaluate Population Declines in the Endangered Streaked Horned Lark

The Streaked Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris strigata) is listed as endangered by the State of Washington, USA and by Canada under the Species at Risk Act and is also classified as a federal candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act in the USA. A substantial portion of Streaked Horned Lark habitat has been lost or degraded, and range contraction has occurred in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia. We estimate the vital rates (fecundity, adult and juvenile survival) and population growth rate (λ) for Streaked Horned Larks breeding in Washington, USA and conduct a Life-Stage Simulation Analysis (LSA) to evaluate which vital rate has the greatest influence on λ. We simulated changes in the three vital rates to examine how much they would need to be adjusted either independently or in concert to achieve a stable Streaked Horned Lark population (λ = 1). We also evaluated which fecundity component (the number of fledglings per egg laid or renesting interval) had the greatest impact on λ. The estimate of population growth suggests that Streaked Horned Larks in Washington are declining rapidly (λ = 0.62 ± 0.10) and that local breeding sites are not sustainable without immigration. The LSA results indicate that adult survival had the greatest influence on λ, followed by juvenile survival and fecundity. However, increases in vital rates led to λ = 1 only when adult survival was raised from 0.47 to 0.85, juvenile survival from 0.17 to 0.58, and fecundity from 0.91 to 3.09. Increases in breeding success and decreases in the renesting interval influenced λ similarly; however, λ did not reach 1 even when breeding success was raised to 100% or renesting intervals were reduced to 1 day. Only when all three vital rates were increased simultaneously did λ approach 1 without requiring highly unrealistic increases in each vital rate. We conclude that conservation activities need to target all or multiple vital rates to be successful. The baseline data presented here and subsequent efforts to manage Streaked Horned Larks will provide valuable information for management of other declining Horned Lark subspecies and other grassland songbirds across North America.

Suburban immigrants to wildlands disrupt honest signaling in ultra-violet plumage

Urbanization changes habitat in a multitude of ways, including altering food availability. Access to human-provided food can change the relationship between body condition and honest advertisements of fitness, which may result in changes to behavior, demography, and metapopulation dynamics. We compared plumage color, its relationship with body condition and feather growth, and use as signal of dominance between a suburban and a wildland population of Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens). Although plumage color was not related to body condition at either site, suburban birds had plumage with a greater proportion of total reflectance in the ultra-violet (UV) and peak reflectance at shorter wavelengths. Despite the use of plumage reflectance as a signal of dominance among individuals in the wildlands, we found no evidence of status signaling at the suburban site. However, birds emigrating from the suburban site to the wildland site tended to be more successful at acquiring breeder status but less successful at reproducing than were immigrants from an adjacent wildland site, suggesting that signaled and realized quality differ. These differences in signaling content among populations could have demographic effects at metapopulation scales and may represent an evolutionary trap whereby suburban immigrants are preferred as mates even though their reproductive success relative to effort is lower.

Regional Differences in the Prediction of Extratropical Cyclones by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

A regional study of the prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) has been performed. An objective feature-tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast error statistics have then been produced for the position, intensity, and propagation speed of the storms. In previous work, data limitations meant it was only possible to present the diagnostics for the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH) or Southern Hemisphere. A larger data sample has allowed the diagnostics to be computed separately for smaller regions around the globe and has made it possible to explore the regional differences in the prediction of storms by the EPS. Results show that in the NH there is a larger ensemble mean error in the position of storms over the Atlantic Ocean. Further analysis revealed that this is mainly due to errors in the prediction of storm propagation speed rather than in direction. Forecast storms propagate too slowly in all regions, but the bias is about 2 times as large in the NH Atlantic region. The results show that storm intensity is generally overpredicted over the ocean and underpredicted over the land and that the absolute error in intensity is larger over the ocean than over the land. In the NH, large errors occur in the prediction of the intensity of storms that originate as tropical cyclones but then move into the extratropics. The ensemble is underdispersive for the intensity of cyclones (i.e., the spread is smaller than the mean error) in all regions. The spatial patterns of the ensemble mean error and ensemble spread are very different for the intensity of cyclones. Spatial distributions of the ensemble mean error suggest that large errors occur during the growth phase of storm development, but this is not indicated by the spatial distributions of the ensemble spread. In the NH there are further differences. First, the large errors in the prediction of the intensity of cyclones that originate in the tropics are not indicated by the spread. Second, the ensemble mean error is larger over the Pacific Ocean than over the Atlantic, whereas the opposite is true for the spread. The use of a storm-tracking approach, to both weather forecasters and developers of forecast systems, is also discussed.

Comparison of child morbidity in two contrasting medieval cemeteries from Denmark

This study compares associations between demographic profiles, long bone lengths, bone mineral content, and frequencies of stress indicators in the preadult populations of two medieval skeletal assemblages from Denmark. One is from a leprosarium, and thus probably represents a disadvantaged group (Naestved). The other comes from a normal, and in comparison rather privileged, medieval community (AEbelholt). Previous studies of the adult population indicated differences between the two skeletal collections with regard to mortality, dental size, and metabolic and specific infectious disease. The two samples were analyzed against the view known as the "osteological paradox" (Wood et al. [1992] Curr. Anthropol. 33:343-370), according to which skeletons displaying pathological modification are likely to represent the healthier individuals of a population, whereas those without lesions would have died without acquiring modifications as a result of a depressed immune response. Results reveal that older age groups among the preadults from Naestved are shorter and have less bone mineral content than their peers from AEbelholt. On average, the Naestved children have a higher prevalence of stress indicators, and in some cases display skeletal signs of leprosy. This is likely a result of the combination of compromised health and social disadvantage, thus supporting a more traditional interpretation. The study provides insights into the health of children from two different biocultural settings of medieval Danish society and illustrates the importance of comparing samples of single age groups.

Differences in phosphorus retention and release in soils amended with animal manures and sewage sludge

Excessive levels of P in agricultural soils pose a threat to local water quality. This study evaluated (i) time-dependent changes in soil P sorption (expressed as a phosphorus sorption index, PSI) and P availability (as resin P) during incubation (100 d) with poultry litter, cattle slurry, sewage sludge, or KH2PO4, added on a P-equivalent basis (100 mg P kg(-1)), and (ii) the subsequent kinetics of P release, measured by repeated extractions with a mixed cation-anion exchange resin. Soil exchangeable Ca and ammonium oxalate-extractable Fe and Al were also determined at 100 d of incubation. The small decrease in P sorption in the litter and sludge treatments (25%), compared with that in the slurry and KH2PO4 treatments (52%) between 20 and 100 d of incubation was attributed partly to the formation of new adsorption sites for P. Subsequent P release was described by a power equation: Resin P = a(extraction number)(b), where the constants a and b represent resin P obtained with a single extraction and the rate of P release per resin extraction, respectively. On average, the rate of P release decreased in the order: KH2PO4 and slurry > litter > sludge, and was inversely related to exchangeable Ca content of the incubated soils (R-2 = 0.57). The slower rates of P release in the litter and sludge treatments (P < 0.001) are attributed to the large values for exchangeable Ca (1050-2640 and 1070-2710 mg kg(-1), respectively) in these amended soils. Future research concerned with short-term declines in environmentally harmful levels of P in recently amended soils should consider the differential effects of the amendments on soil P dynamics.

Individual differences in the effects of perceived controllability on pain perception: critical role of the prefrontal cortex

The degree to which perceived controllability alters the way a stressor is experienced varies greatly among individuals. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural activation associated with individual differences in the impact of perceived controllability on self-reported pain perception. Subjects with greater activation in response to uncontrollable (UC) rather than controllable (C) pain in the pregenual anterior cingulate cortex (pACC), periaqueductal gray (PAG), and posterior insula/SII reported higher levels of pain during the UC versus C conditions. Conversely, subjects with greater activation in the ventral lateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) in anticipation of pain in the UC versus C conditions reported less pain in response to UC versus C pain. Activation in the VLPFC was significantly correlated with the acceptance and denial subscales of the COPE inventory [Carver, C. S., Scheier, M. F., & Weintraub, J. K. Assessing coping strategies: A theoretically based approach. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56, 267–283, 1989], supporting the interpretation that this anticipatory activation was associated with an attempt to cope with the emotional impact of uncontrollable pain. A regression model containing the two prefrontal clusters (VLPFC and pACC) predicted 64% of the variance in pain rating difference, with activation in the two additional regions (PAG and insula/SII) predicting almost no additional variance. In addition to supporting the conclusion that the impact of perceived controllability on pain perception varies highly between individuals, these findings suggest that these effects are primarily top-down, driven by processes in regions of the prefrontal cortex previously associated with cognitive modulation of pain and emotion regulation.