EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

Capital Controls with International Reserve Accumulation: Can this Be Optimal ?

Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze a semi-open economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector has not. This enables the central bank to choose an interest rate different from the international rate. We examine the optimal policy of the central bank by modelling it as a Ramsey planner who can choose the level of domestic public debt and of international reserves. The central bank can improve savings opportunities of credit-constrained consumers modelled as in Woodford (1990). We find that in a steady state it is optimal for the central bank to replicate the open economy, i.e., to issue debt financed by the accumulation of reserves so that the domestic interest rate equals the foreign rate. When the economy is in transition, however, a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility and the optimal interest rate differs from the international rate. We argue that the domestic interest rate should be temporarily above the international rate. We also find that capital controls can still help reach the first best when the planner has more fiscal instruments.

Competitive policy and pricing in business-to-business relationships within the EC market.

Tutkielman tarkoituksena oli tarkastella hinnoittelun ja hinnanalennusten merkitystä toimittaja-asiakassuhteissa yritysmarkkinoilla, sekä sitä kuinka kilpailuoikeus säätelee hinnoittelua. Tutkielman ensisijaisena tavoitteena oli selvittää kuinka alennuspolitiikka tulisi laatia jotta se olisi EY:n kilpailuoikeuden mukaan sallittu. Aluksi hinnoittelupolitiikkaan ja strategiaan vaikuttavia seikkoja tarkasteltiin teoreettisesti ja tämän pohjalta laadittua viitekehystä sovellettiin empiiristä tutkimusta suoritettaessa. Empiirinen tutkimus oli normatiivinen case-tutkimus, jossa tarkasteltiin kahdessa toimittaja-asiakassuhteessa noudatettuja hinnoittelu- ja alennuskäytäntöjä. Aineisto kerättiin haastattelemalla toimittajan myyntihenkilöitä, ja lisänä käytettiin yrityksen sisäistä materiaalia. Analyysin tulokset osoittivat nykyisissä käytännöissä joitakin kilpailuoikeudellisia ristiriitaisuuksia, ja näihin annettiin parannusehdotuksia.

Optimal Exchange Rate Policy in a Growing Semi-Open Economy

This paper considers an alternative perspective to China's exchange rate policy. It studies a semi-open economy where the private sector has no access to international capital markets but the central bank has full access. Moreover, it assumes limited financial development generating a large demand for saving instruments by the private sector. The paper analyzes the optimal exchange rate policy by modeling the central bank as a Ramsey planner. Its main result is that in a growth acceleration episode it is optimal to have an initial real depreciation of the currency combined with an accumulation of reserves, which is consistent with the Chinese experience. This depreciation is followed by an appreciation in the long run. The paper also shows that the optimal exchange rate path is close to the one that would result in an economy with full capital mobility and no central bank intervention.

Platform Architectures for Policy-Based Network Access Control

Tämä diplomityö käsittelee sääntöpohjaisen verkkoon pääsyn hallinnan (NAC) ratkaisuja arkkitehtonisesta näkökulmasta. Työssä käydään läpi Trusted Computing Groupin, Microsoft Corporationin, Juniper Networksin sekä Cisco Systemsin NAC-ratkaisuja. NAC koostuu joukosta uusia sekä jo olemassa olevia teknologioita, jotka auttavat ennalta määriteltyyn sääntökantaan perustuen hallitsemaan suojattuun verkkoon pyrkivien laitteiden tietoliikenneyhteyksiä. Käyttäjän tunnistamisen lisäksi NAC pystyy rajoittamaan verkkoon pääsyä laitekohtaisten ominaisuuksien perusteella, esimerkiksi virustunnisteisiin ja käyttöjärjestelmäpäivityksiin liittyen ja paikkaamaan tietyin rajoituksin näissä esiintyviä puutteita verkkoon pääsyn sallimiseksi. NAC on verraten uusi käsite, jolta puuttuu tarkka määritelmä. Tästä johtuen nykymarkkinoilla myydään ominaisuuksiltaan puutteellisia tuotteita NAC-nimikkeellä. Standardointi eri valmistajien NAC-komponenttien yhteentoimivuuden takaamiseksi on meneillään, minkä perusteella ratkaisut voidaan jakaa joko avoimia standardeja tai valmistajakohtaisia standardeja noudattaviksi. Esitellyt NAC-ratkaisut noudattavat standardeja joko rajoitetusti tai eivät lainkaan. Mikään läpikäydyistä ratkaisuista ei ole täydellinen NAC, mutta Juniper Networksin ratkaisu nousee niistä potentiaalisimmaksi jatkokehityksen ja -tutkimuksen kohteeksi TietoEnator Processing & Networks Oy:lle. Eräs keskeinen ongelma NAC-konseptissa on työaseman tietoverkolle toimittama mahdollisesti valheellinen tietoturvatarkistuksen tulos, minkä perusteella pääsyä osittain hallitaan. Muun muassa tähän ongelmaan ratkaisuna voisi olla jo nykytietokoneista löytyvä TPM-siru, mikä takaa tiedon oikeellisuuden ja koskemattomuuden.

Lectio praecursoria: Environmental policy evaluation concepts exemplified in the context of the European Unions strategy for better regulation

Lectio praecursoria 3.2.2006 Tampereen yliopisto

How Party Linkages Shape Austerity Politics: Clientelism and Fiscal Adjustment in Greece and Portugal during the Eurozone Crisis

Drawing on an analysis of austerity reforms in Greece and Portugal during the sovereign debt crisis from 2009 onwards, we show how the nature of the linkages between parties and citizens shapes party strategies of fiscal retrenchment. We argue that parties which rely to a greater extent on the selective distribution of state resources to mobilize electoral support (clientelistic linkages) are more reluctant to agree to fiscal retrenchment because their own electoral survival depends on their ability to control state budgets to reward clients. In Greece, where parties relied extensively on these clientelistic linkages, austerity reforms have been characterized by recurring conflicts and disagreements between the main parties, as well as a fundamental transformation of the party system. By contrast, in Portugal, where parties relied less on clientelistic strategies, austerity reforms have been more consensual because fiscal retrenchment challenged to a lesser extent the electoral base of the mainstream parties.