A long-term analysis of pumped hydro storage to firm wind power

Although pumped hydro storage is seen as a strategic key asset by grid operators, financing it is complicated in new liberalised markets. It could be argued that the optimum generation portfolio is now determined by the economic viability of generators based on a short to medium term return on investment. This has meant that capital intensive projects such as pumped hydro storage are less attractive for wholesale electricity companies because the payback periods are too long. In tandem a significant amount of wind power has entered the generation mix, which has resulted in operating and planning integration issues due to wind's inherent uncertain, varying spatial and temporal nature. These integration issues can be overcome using fast acting gas peaking plant or energy storage. Most analysis of wind power integration using storage to date has used stochastic optimisation for power system balancing or arbitrage modelling to examine techno-economic viability. In this research a deterministic dynamic programming long term generation expansion model is employed to optimise the generation mix, total system costs and total carbon dioxide emissions, and unlike other studies calculates reserve to firm wind power. The key finding of this study is that the incentive to build capital-intensive pumped hydro storage to firm wind power is limited unless exogenous market costs come very strongly into play. Furthermore it was demonstrated that reserve increases with increasing wind power showing the importance of ancillary services in future power systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducible Diffusions with Time-Varying Transformations with Application to Short-Term Interest Rates

Reducible diffusions (RDs) are nonlinear transformations of analytically solvable Basic Diffusions (BDs). Hence, by construction RDs are analytically tractable and flexible diffusion processes. Existing literature on RDs has mostly focused on time-homogeneous transformations, which to a significant extent fail to explore the full potential of RDs from both theoretical and practical points of view. In this paper, we propose flexible and economically justifiable time variations to the transformations of RDs. Concentrating on the Constant Elasticity Variance (CEV) RDs, we consider nonlinear dynamics for our time-varying transformations with both deterministic and stochastic designs. Such time variations can greatly enhance the flexibility of RDs while maintaining sufficient tractability of the resulting models. In the meantime, our modeling approach enjoys the benefits of classical inferential techniques such as the Maximum Likelihood (ML). Our application to the UK and the US short-term interest rates suggests that from an empirical point of view time-varying transformations are highly relevant and statistically significant. We expect that the proposed models can describe more truthfully the dynamic time-varying behavior of economic and financial variables and potentially improve out-of-sample forecasts significantly.

Building capacity in palliative care for personal support workers in long-term care through experiential learning

Background

Providing palliative care in long-term care (LTC) homes is an area of growing importance. As a result, attention is being given to exploring effective palliative care learning strategies for personal support workers (PSWs) who provide the most hands-on care to LTC residents.

The purpose of this intervention was to explore hospice visits as an experiential learning strategy to increase the capacity of PSWs in palliative care, specifically related to their new learning, and how they anticipated this experience changed their practices in LTC.

This study utilised a qualitative descriptive design.

Eleven PSWs from four Ontario LTC homes were sent to their local hospice to shadow staff for one to two days. After the visit, PSWs completed a questionnaire with open-ended questions based on critical reflection. Data were analysed using thematic content analysis.

PSWs commented on the extent of resident-focused care at the hospice and how palliative care interventions were tailored to meet the needs of residents. PSWs were surprised with the lack of routine at the hospice but felt that hospice staff prioritised their time effectively in order to meet family and client care needs. Some PSWs were pleased to see how well integrated the PSW role is on the community hospice team without any hierarchical relationships. Finally, PSWs felt that other LTC staff would benefit from palliative care education and becoming more comfortable with talking about death and dying with other staff, residents and family members.

This study highlighted the benefits of PSWs attending a hospice as an experiential learning strategy. Future work is needed to evaluate this strategy using more rigorous designs as a way to build capacity within PSWs to provide optimal palliative care for LTC residents and their family members.

PSWs need to be recognised as important members within the interdisciplinary team. PSWs who shadow staff at hospices view this experience as a positive strategy to meet their learning needs related to palliative care.

The character of behavioural symptoms on admission to three Canadian long-term care homes

Objectives: We determined the prevalence and nature of behavioural symptoms at the time of admission to a long-term care home (LTCH) and occurrence of resident-to-resident aggressive behaviour associated with behavioural symptoms within three months following admission. Method: The Cohen-Mansfield Agitation Inventory and Aggressive Behaviour Scale were completed at the time residents were admitted into the LTCH. A chart review, conducted three months after admission into the LTCH, abstracted documented resident-to-resident aggression. Three LTCHs located in Ontario, Canada participated in the study. Results: During a 16-month period, 339 individuals admitted to the LTCHs comprised the study sample. A comparison was made between residents with and without dementia. At admission, residents with dementia had a greater number of behavioural symptoms than those without dementia (mean = 3.79, SD = 3.32 versus mean = 2.56, SD = 2.24, respectively; t(200) = 1.91; p = 0.059). Residents with and without dementia exhibited similar behaviours but differed on the prevalence of these behaviours. The most frequently reported behavioural symptoms for residents in both groups were verbal agitation and non-aggressive physical behaviours. The most frequently recorded aggressive behaviour for all residents was resisting care. In the three months post admission, 79 (23%) residents were involved in a documented incident that involved aggressive behaviour to another resident. Conclusion: A standardized comprehensive assessment for admission to a LTCH is an important strategy that can be used to identify behavioural symptoms and plan appropriate care management. 

Streptococcus bovis bacteraemia: an evaluation of the long-term effect on cardiac outcomes

Introduction: Streptococcus bovis can lead to bacteraemia, septicaemia, and ultimately endocarditis. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term implications of S. bovis endocarditis on cardiac morbidity and mortality. 

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed between January 2000 and March 2009 to assess all patients diagnosed with S. bovis bacteraemia from the Belfast Health and Social Care Trust. The primary end-point for cardiac investigations was the presence of endocarditis. Secondary end-points included referral for cardiac surgery and overall mortality. 

Results: Sixty-one positive S. bovis blood cultures from 43 patients were included. Following echocardiography, seven patients were diagnosed with infective endocarditis (16.3 % of total patients); four patients (9.3 %) had native valve involvement while three (7.0 %) had prosthetic valve infection. Five of these seven patients had more than one positive S. bovis culture (71.4 %). Three had significant valve dysfunction that warranted surgical repair/replacement, one of whom was unfit for surgery. There was a 100 % recurrence rate amongst the valve replacement patients (n = 2) and six patients with endocarditis had colorectal pathology. Patients with endocarditis had similar long-term survival as those with non-endocarditic bacteraemia (57.1 % alive vs. 50 % of non-endocarditis patients, p = 0.73). 

Conclusion: Streptococcus bovis endocarditis patients tended to have pre-existing valvular heart disease and those with prosthetic heart valves had higher surgical intervention and relapse rates. These patients experienced a higher rate of co-existing colorectal pathology but currently have reasonable long-term outcomes. This may suggest that they represent a patient population that merits consideration for an early surgical strategy to maximise long-term results, however, further evaluation is warranted. © 2013 The Japanese Association for Thoracic Surgery.

Mineralogical Characteristics and Transformations during Long-Term Operation of a Zerovalent Iron Reactive Barrier

Design and operation of Fe⁰ permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) can be improved by understanding the long-term mineralogical transformations that occur within PRBs. Changes in mineral precipitates, cementation, and corrosion of Fe⁰ filings within an in situ pilot-scale PRB were examined after the first 30 months of operation and compared with results of a previous study of the PRB conducted 15 months earlier using X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy employing energy dispersive X-ray and backscatter electron analyses. Iron (oxy)hydroxides, aragonite, and maghemite and/or magnetite occurred throughout the cores collected 30 mo after installation. Goethite, lepidocrocite, mackinawite, aragonite, calcite, and siderite were associated with oxidized and cemented areas, while green rusts were detected in more reduced zones. Basic differences from our last detailed investigation include (i) mackinawite crystallized from amorphous FeS, (ii) aragonite transformed into calcite, (iii) akaganeite transformed to goethite and lepidocrocite, (iv) iron (oxy)hydroxides and calcium and iron carbonate minerals increased, (v) cementation was greater in the more recent study, and (vi) oxidation, corrosion, and disintegration of Fe⁰ filings were greater, especially in cemented areas, in the more recent study. If the degree of corrosion and cementation that was observed from 15 to 30 mo after installation continues, certain portions of the PRB (i.e., up-gradient entrance of the ground water to the Fe⁰ section of the PRB) may last less than five more years, thus reducing the effectiveness of the PRB to mitigate contaminants.