On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

Early clarification processes in clients presenting with borderline personality disorder: Relations with symptom level and change

Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy (COP), an integrative treatment form with a basis in process-experiential psychotherapy, is particularly relevant for clients with Personality Disorders (PDs). We argue here that two related core therapeutic COP principles, "dual action regulation" and "interactional games" have consequences for symptom severity and therapeutic outcome for clients with PDs. A high quality COP clarification process requires that client's interactional games may be quickly assessed and treated in all (preferably early) therapy sessions. These processes can be observed and measured using the observer-rated Bochum Process and Relationship Rating Scales (BPRRS) which measure both clients' and therapists' contributions to the quality of the clarification processes engaged in therapy. This measure has been successfully applied to COP-therapies, but not, as yet, to therapies other than experiential, nor to specific client populations such as borderline personality disorder. The present study is a first attempt to evaluate the application of COP processes to other therapies and populations. We measured action regulation and interactional games using the BPRRS during intake sessions of a 10-session psychodynamic treatment of borderline personality disorder for a total of N = 30 clients and N = 8 therapists. Significant relationships were found between the client's degree of interactional games and both pretherapy symptom level and symptom change across therapy. These results are discussed in the context of Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy, and more generally Person-Centered and Process-Experiential Psychotherapies. The potential relevance of the findings for psychodynamic psychotherapists are explored as well as the potential usefulness of taking into account a detailed analysis of interactional games for the training of psychotherapists working with any model of therapy working with clients presenting with BPD.

Alcohol may not cause partner violence but it seems to make it worse: a cross national comparison of the relationship between alcohol and severity of partner violence.

This study assesses whether severity of physical partner aggression is associated with alcohol consumption at the time of the incident, and whether the relationship between drinking and aggression severity is the same for men and women and across different countries. National or large regional general population surveys were conducted in 13 countries as part of the GENACIS collaboration. Respondents described the most physically aggressive act done to them by a partner in the past 2 years, rated the severity of aggression on a scale of 1 to 10, and reported whether either partner had been drinking when the incident occurred. Severity ratings were significantly higher for incidents in which one or both partners had been drinking compared to incidents in which neither partner had been drinking. The relationship did not differ significantly for men and women or by country. We conclude that alcohol consumption may serve to potentiate violence when it occurs, and this pattern holds across a diverse set of cultures. Further research is needed that focuses explicitly on the nature of alcohol's contribution to intimate partner aggression. Prevention needs to address the possibility of enhanced dangers of intimate partner violence when the partners have been drinking and eliminate any systemic factors that permit alcohol to be used as an excuse. Clinical services for perpetrators and victims of partner violence need to address the role of drinking practices, including the dynamics and process of aggressive incidents that occur when one or both partners have been drinking.

The relationship between Lamb weather types and long-term changes in flood frequency, River Eden, UK

Research has found that both flood magnitude and frequency in the UK may have increased over the last five decades. However, evaluating whether or not this is a systematic trend is difficult because of the lack of longer records. Here we compile and consider an extreme flood record that extends back to 1770. Since 1770, there have been 137 recorded extreme floods. However, over this period, there is not a unidirectional trend of rising extreme flood risk over time. Instead, there are clear flood-rich and flood-poor periods. Three main flood-rich periods were identified: 18731904, 19231933, and 1994 onwards. To provide a first analysis of what is driving these periods, and given the paucity of more sophisticated datasets that extend back to the 18th century, objective Lamb weather types were used. Of the 27 objective Lamb weather types, only 11 could be associated with the extreme floods during the gauged period, and only 5 of these accounted for > 80% of recorded extreme floods The importance of these five weather types over a longer timescale for flood risk in Carlisle was assessed, through calculating the proportion of each hydrological year classified as being associated with these flood-generating weather types. Two periods clearly had more than the average proportions of the year classified as one of the flood causing weather types; 19001940 and 19832007; and these two periods both contained flood-rich hydrological records. Thus, the analysis suggests that systematic organisation of the North Atlantic climate system may be manifest as periods of elevated and reduced flood risk, an observation that has major implications for analyses that assume that climatic drivers of flood risk can be either statistically stationary or are following a simple trend. Copyright (c) 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Fifth-order cyclicity and organic matter contents relationship (Lower Eocene, Pyrenees)

The Upper Limestone Member of the Corones Formation of the Spanish Pyrenees consists of various units (Lower and Upper Foraminifera Units, Shale Unit, Cherty-ostracode Unit, Ostracode Unit and Chara-ostracode Unit) and offers strong facies and lateral thickness (20 to 80 m) variations. Detailed facies analyses, fifth-order cycles and organic geochemical determinations in the central domain of the Corones platform carbonates (Cherty-ostracode Unit), lower Eocene in age, were carried out to establish a case of close relationship between variations in organic matter productivity and cyclicity with annual period. The Cherty-ostracode Unit displays a continuous and pervasive fifth-order cyclicity, represented by 5 cycles. Each cycle consists of a lower part (mollusc facies) and an upper part (laminated ostracode facies). The calculated fifth-order cycle period ranges from about 17,000 to 28,000 years, which falls within the Milankovitch Band. Variations in organic matter content related to these carbonate cycles have been established. The lower mollusc facies members show a low organic carbon content and Hydrogen Index (HI) below 0.6% in weight and 261, respectively. By contrast, the upper laminated ostracode facies members show high organic carbon contents (up to 2% in weight) and high HI (between 164 and 373), and are also characterized by important silicification processes (the content in chert is up to 30%). The organic geochemistry resulting from these organic rich levels reflects a contribution of algal marine input.

Secretory IgA and intestinal epithelial cells at the interface between homeostasis regulation and protection against infection

RESUME DESTINE A UN LARGE PUBLICL'intestin est le siège d'intenses agressions de la part de l'ensemble des aliments ingérés, de bactéries agressives dites pathogènes mais également de bactéries dites commensales peuplant naturellement les surfaces intestinales muqueuses. Pour faire face, notre organisme arbore de nombreux niveaux de protections tant physiques, chimiques, mécaniques mais aussi immunitaires. La présence d'un type particulier de cellules, les cellules épithéliales (IEC) assurant une protection physique, ainsi que la production d'anticorps spécialisés par le système immunitaire appelés immunoglobulines sécrétoires A (SlgA) servent conjointement de première ligne de défense contre ces agressions externes. Néanmoins, comment le dialogue s'articule entre ces deux partenaires reste incomplet.Nous avons donc décidé de mimer ces interactions en modélisant les surfaces muqueuses par une monocouche de cellules différenciées en laboratoire. Des souches bactériennes isolées de l'intestin humain seules ou associées à des SlgA non-spécifiques ont été mises au contact de ce modèle cellulaire nous permettant de conclure quant à la présence effective d'une modulation du dialogue bactérie/lEC impliquant une activation de la réponse cellulaire vers un état de tolérance mutuelle. De façon surprenante, nous avons par ailleurs mis en évidence un type d'interaction nouveau entre ces anticorps et ces bactéries. Une étude biochimique nous a permis de détailler un nouveau rôle des SlgA médié par les sucres présents à leur surface dans le maintien d'une relation pacifique avec les commensaux perpétuellement présents, relations qualifiées d'homésostase intestinale.Le rôle protecteur des SlgA a par ailleurs été abordé pour avoir une meilleure appréhension de leur impact au niveau cellulaire lors d'infection par Shigella flexneri, bactérie causant la Shigellose, diarrhée sanglante responsable de la mort de plus d'un million de personnes chaque année. Basée sur le même modèle cellulaire, cette étude nous a permis de démontrer une nouvelle entrée de ce pathogène directement via les IEC. La présence d'anticorps spécifiques à la surface des bactéries restreint leur champs d'action contre les cibles intracellulaires identifiées que sont les filaments soutenant le squelette de la cellule, les fibres d'actine ainsi que les jonctions serrées, réseaux de protéines clés des interactions entre cellules. Cette ouverture au niveau cellulaire apporte un nouvel élan quant à la compréhension du rôle protecteur des SlgA lors d'attaques de l'intestin, protection semblant dépendante d'une agrégation des bactéries.Pour finir, nous avons mis en évidence la détection directe par les cellules de la présence d'anticorps libres dans l'intestin ajoutant une nouvelle réplique dans le dialogue complexe entre ces deux piliers de l'équilibre intestinal que sont les SlgA et les cellules épithéliales.RESUMELa muqueuse intestinale est dotée d'un réseau complexe de protections physico-chimiques, mécaniques ou immunologiques. Associées à un système immunitaire omniprésent, les cellules épithéliales intestinales {IEC) bordant la lumière intestinale ont la double tâche de protéger l'intérieur de l'organisme stérile contre l'invasion et la dissémination d'agents pathogènes, et de maintenir une relation pacifique avec la flore intestinale, rôles également joués par les immunoglobulines sécrétoires A (SlgA), anticorps les plus abondamment présents à la surface des muqueuses. Tant les IEC que les SlgA sont ainsi décrites comme convergeant vers le même objectif ; néanmoins, les rouages de leurs interactions restent largement inconnus.Pour répondre à cette question, des monocouches épithéliales reconstituées in vitro ont été incubées avec des souches commensales telles que des Lactobacillus ou des Bifodobacteria, seules ou complexées avec des SlgA non-spécifiques, nous permettant de décrypter l'influence des SlgA sur la détection des bactéries par les IEC, favorisant l'adhésion bactérienne et la cohésion cellulaire, augmentant l'activation de la voie NF-κΒ ainsi que la sécrétion de la cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin contrairement à celle de médiateurs pro-inflammatoires qui reste inchangée. Par ailleurs, une interaction Fab-indépendante est suggérée dans l'interaction SlgA/bactéries. Comme une interaction de faible affinité a été décrite comme prenant naturellement place au niveau de l'intestin, nous avons donc disséqué les mécanismes sous- jacents en utilisant un large spectre de bactérie associés à des protéines soit recombinantes soit isolées à partir de colostrum, mettant en évidence un rôle crucial des N-glycanes présents sur la pièce sécrétoire et soulignant une nouvelle propriété des SlgA dans l'homéostase intestinale.Intrinsèquement liés aux caractéristiques des SlgA, nous nous sommes également focalisés sur leur rôle protecteur lors d'infection par l'enteropathogène Shigella flexneri reproduites in vitro sur des monocouches polarisées. Nous avons tout d'abord démontré une nouvelle porte d'entrée pour ce pathogène directement via les IEC. L'agrégation des bactéries par les SlgA confère aux cellules une meilleure résistance à l'infection, retardant croissance bactérienne et entrée cellulaire, affectant par ailleurs leur capacité à cibler le cytosquelette et les jonctions serrées. La formation de tels cargos détectés de façon biaisée par les IEC apparaît comme une explication plausible au maintien de la cohésion cellulaire médiée par les SlgA.Enfin, le retrotransport des SlgA à travers les IEC a été abordé soulignant une participation active de ces cellules dans la détection de l'environnement extérieur, les impliquant possiblement dans l'activation d'un état muqueux stable.Conjointement, ces résultats indiquent que les SlgA représentent l'un des éléments-clés à la surface de la muqueuse et soulignent la complexité du dialogue établi avec l'épithélium en vue du maintien d'un fragile équilibre intestinal.ABSTRACTThe intestinal mucosa is endowed with a complex protective network melting physiochemical, mechanical and immunological features. Beyond the ubiquitous intestinal immune system, intestinal epithelial cells (IEC) lying the mucosal surfaces have also the dual task to protect the sterile core against invasion and dissemination of pathogens, and maintain a peaceful relationship with commensal microorganisms, aims also achieved by the presence of high amounts of secretory immunoglobulins A (SlgA), the most abundant immunoglobulin present at mucosal surfaces. Both IEC and SlgA are thus described to converge toward the same goal but how their interplay is orchestrated is largely unknown.To address this question, in vitro reconstituted IEC monolayers were first apically incubated with commensal bacteria such as Lactobacillus or Bifodobacteria strains either alone or in complexes with non-specific SlgA. Favoring the bacterial adhesion and cellular cohesion, SlgA impacts on the cellular sensing of bacteria, increasing NF-κΒ activation, and leading to cytokine releases restricted to the thymic stromal lymphopoietin and unaffected expression of pro-inflammatory mediators. Of main interest, bacterial recognition by SlgA suggested a Fab-independent interaction. As this low affinity, called natural coating occurs in the intestine, we further dissected the underlying mechanisms using a larger spectrum of commensal strains associated with recombinant as well as colostrum-derived proteins and pinpointed a crucial role of N-glycans of the secretory component, emphasizing an underestimated role of carbohydrates and another properties of SlgA in mediating intestinal homeostasis.As mucosal protection is also anchored in SlgA and IEC features, we focused on the cellular role of SlgA. Using IEC apical infection by the enteropathogen Shigella flexneri, we have first demonstrated a new gate of entry for this pathogen directly via IEC. Specific SlgA bacterial aggregation conferred to the cells a better resistance to infection, delaying bacterial growth and cellular entry, affecting their ability to damage both the cytoskeleton and the tight junctions. Formation of such big cargos differentially detected by IEC appears as a plausible explanation sustaining at the cellular level the antibody-mediated mucosal protection.Finally, SlgA retrotransport across IEC has been tackled stressing an active IEC sensing of the external environment possibly involved in the steady-state mucosal activation.All together, these results indicate that SlgA represents one of the pivotal elements at mucosal surfaces highlighting the complexity of the dialogue established with the epithelium sustaining the fragile intestinal balance.The Intestinal mucosa is endowed with a complex protective network melting physiochemical, mechanical and immunological features. Beyond the ubiquitous intestinal immune system, intestinal epithelial cells (IEC) lying the mucosal surfaces have also the dual task to protect the sterile core against invasion and dissemination of pathogens, and maintain a peaceful relationship with commensal microorganisms, aims also achieved by the presence of high amounts of secretory immunoglobulins A (SlgA), the most abundant immunoglobulin present at mucosal surfaces. Both IEC and SlgA are thus described to converge toward the same goal but how their interplay is orchestrated is largely unknown.To address this question, in vitro reconstituted IEC monolayers were first apically incubated with commensal bacteria such as Lactobacillus or Bifodobacteria strains either alone or in complexes with non-specific SlgA. Favoring the bacterial adhesion and cellular cohesion, SlgA impacts on the cellular sensing of bacteria, increasing NF-κΒ activation, and leading to cytokine releases restricted to the thymic stromal lymphopoietin and unaffected expression of pro-inflammatory mediators. Of main interest, bacterial recognition by SlgA suggested a Fab-independent interaction. As this low affinity, called natural coating occurs in the intestine, we further dissected the underlying mechanisms using a larger spectrum of commensal strains associated with recombinant as well as colostrum-derived proteins and pinpointed a crucial role of N-glycans of the secretory component, emphasizing an underestimated role of carbohydrates and another properties of SlgA in mediating intestinal homeostasis.As mucosal protection is also anchored in SlgA and IEC features, we focused on the cellular role of SlgA. Using IEC apical infection by the enteropathogen Shigella flexneri, we have first demonstrated a new gate of entry for this pathogen directly via IEC. Specific SlgA bacterial aggregation conferred to the cells a better resistance to infection, delaying bacterial growth and cellular entry, affecting their ability to damage both the cytoskeleton and the tight junctions. Formation of such big cargos differentially detected by IEC appears as a plausible explanation sustaining at the cellular level the antibody-mediated mucosal protection.Finally, SlgA retrotransport across IEC has been tackled stressing an active IEC sensing of the external environment possibly involved in the steady-state mucosal activation.All together, these results indicate that SlgA represents one of the pivotal elements at mucosal surfaces highlighting the complexity of the dialogue established with the epithelium sustaining the fragile intestinal balance.

Adherence to and effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral treatment for HIV infection: assessing the bidirectional relationship.

BACKGROUND: It is well established that high adherence to HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) is a major determinant of virological and immunologic success. Furthermore, psychosocial research has identified a wide range of adherence factors including patients' subjective beliefs about the effectiveness of HAART. Current statistical approaches, mainly based on the separate identification either of factors associated with treatment effectiveness or of those associated with adherence, fail to properly explore the true relationship between adherence and treatment effectiveness. Adherence behavior may be influenced not only by perceived benefits-which are usually the focus of related studies-but also by objective treatment benefits reflected in biological outcomes. METHODS: Our objective was to assess the bidirectional relationship between adherence and response to treatment among patients enrolled in the ANRS CO8 APROCO-COPILOTE study. We compared a conventional statistical approach based on the separate estimations of an adherence and an effectiveness equation to an econometric approach using a 2-equation simultaneous system based on the same 2 equations. RESULTS: Our results highlight a reciprocal relationship between adherence and treatment effectiveness. After controlling for endogeneity, adherence was positively associated with treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, CD4 count gain after baseline was found to have a positive significant effect on adherence at each observation period. This immunologic parameter was not significant when the adherence equation was estimated separately. In the 2-equation model, the covariances between disturbances of both equations were found to be significant, thus confirming the statistical appropriacy of studying adherence and treatment effectiveness jointly. CONCLUSIONS: Our results, which suggest that positive biological results arising as a result of high adherence levels, in turn reinforce continued adherence and strengthen the argument that patients who do not experience rapid improvement in their immunologic and clinical statuses after HAART initiation should be prioritized when developing adherence support interventions. Furthermore, they invalidate the hypothesis that HAART leads to "false reassurance" among HIV-infected patients.

Relationship between potassium fertilization and panicle blast severity in upland rice

The influence of K2O (0, 40, 80, 120 kg ha-1) at varying rates of N application (0, 30, 60 kg ha-1) at planting, on panicle blast (Pyricularia grisea (Cooke) Sacc.) was studied in a field experiment conducted during three consecutive years with the upland rice cultivar Douradão. Panicle blast severity decreased with increasing rates of potassium in the absence of nitrogen (N0). The relationship between panicle blast and K rates was quadratic at 30 kg ha-1 of nitrogen. Significant response to K fertilization was not obtained at 60 kg ha-1 of nitrogen in relation to panicle blast severity.

Which change talk dimensions are associated with subsequent drinking among young men receiving a brief motivational intervention in a non-clinical setting?

Background: Patient change talk (CT) during brief motivational interventions (BMI) has been linked with subsequent changes in drinking in clinical settings but this link has not been clearly established among young people in non-clinical populations. Objective: To determine which of several CT dimensions assessed during an effective BMI delivered in a non-clinical setting to 20-year old men are associated with drinking 6 months later. Methods: Of 125 individuals receiving a face-to-face BMI session (15.8 ± 5.4 minutes), we recorded and coded a subsample of 42 sessions using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code 2.1. Each patient change talk utterance was categorized as `Reason´, `Ability´, `Desire´, `Need´, `Commitment´, `Taking steps´, or `Other´. Each utterance was graded according to its strength (absolute value from 1 to 3) and direction (i.e. towards (positive sign) or away (negative sign) from change/in favor of status quo). `Ability´, `Desire´, and `Need´ to change (`ADN´) were grouped together since these codes were too scarce to conduct analyses. Mean strength scores over the entire session were computed for each dimension and later dichotomized in towards change (i.e. mean core > 0) and away from change/in favor of status quo. Negative binomial regression models were used to assess the relationship between CT dimensions and drinking 6 months later, adjusting for drinking at baseline. Results: Compared to subjects with a `Taking steps´ score away from change/in favor of status quo, subjects with a positive `Taking steps´ score reported significantly less drinking 6 months later (Incidence Rate Ration [IRR] for drinks per week: 0.56, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.31, 1.00). IRR (95%CI) for subjects with a positive `ADN´ score was 0.58, (0.32, 1.03). For subjects with a positive `Reason´, `Commitment´, and `Other´ scores, IRR (95%CI) were 1.28 (0.77; 2.12) 1.63 (0.85; 3.14) and 1.03 (0.61; 1.72), respectively. Conclusion: A change talk dimension reflecting steps taken towards change (`Taking steps´) is associated with less drinking 6 months later among young men receiving a BMI in a non-clinical setting. Encouraging patients to take steps towa change may be a worthy objective for clinicians and may explain BMI efficacy.

Having a good relationship with their mother: a protective factor against sexual risk behavior among adolescent females?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess whether having a good relationship with their mother was a protective factor against risky sexual behavior for female adolescents and whether it was independent of family structure. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of in-school adolescents aged 14-19 years. SETTING: Catalonia, in northeast Spain. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3677 females divided according on whether they had a good (n=3335) or a bad (n=342) relationship with their mother. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of sexual activity and sexual behavior. RESULTS: Adolescents in the good relationship group were significantly younger, more likely to live in an intact family, to have a good relationship with their father and siblings, and to talk about sexuality and their partner with their mother. They were also less likely to have ever had sexual intercourse. Among those sexually experienced, they were significantly older at first intercourse and less likely to have multiple partners or a history of STI. After adjusting for potential confounders, females in the good relationship group were less likely to be sexually active and to have had multiple partners, independently of family structure. CONCLUSIONS: Having a good relationship with their mother is a protective factor against sexual intercourse and having multiple sexual partners independently of family structure. Communication between generations and having a good relationship with their father and siblings also play an important role.

Quantifying the weight of fingerprint evidence through the spatial relationship, directions and types of minutiae observed on fingermarks

This paper presents a statistical model for the quantification of the weight of fingerprint evidence. Contrarily to previous models (generative and score-based models), our model proposes to estimate the probability distributions of spatial relationships, directions and types of minutiae observed on fingerprints for any given fingermark. Our model is relying on an AFIS algorithm provided by 3M Cogent and on a dataset of more than 4,000,000 fingerprints to represent a sample from a relevant population of potential sources. The performance of our model was tested using several hundreds of minutiae configurations observed on a set of 565 fingermarks. In particular, the effects of various sub-populations of fingers (i.e., finger number, finger general pattern) on the expected evidential value of our test configurations were investigated. The performance of our model indicates that the spatial relationship between minutiae carries more evidential weight than their type or direction. Our results also indicate that the AFIS component of our model directly enables us to assign weight to fingerprint evidence without the need for the additional layer of complex statistical modeling involved by the estimation of the probability distributions of fingerprint features. In fact, it seems that the AFIS component is more sensitive to the sub-population effects than the other components of the model. Overall, the data generated during this research project contributes to support the idea that fingerprint evidence is a valuable forensic tool for the identification of individuals.

Relationship between imaging biomarkers, age, progression and symptom severity in Alzheimer's disease.

The early diagnostic value of glucose hypometabolism and atrophy as potential neuroimaging biomarkers of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been extensively explored using [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The vast majority of previous imaging studies neglected the effects of single factors, such as age, symptom severity or time to conversion in MCI thus limiting generalisability of results across studies. Here, we investigated the impact of these factors on metabolic and structural differences. FDG-PET and MRI data from AD patients (n = 80), MCI converters (n = 65) and MCI non-converters (n = 64) were compared to data of healthy subjects (n = 79). All patient groups were split into subgroups by age, time to conversion (for MCI), or symptom severity and compared to the control group. AD patients showed a strongly age-dependent pattern, with younger patients showing significantly more extensive reductions in gray matter volume and glucose utilisation. In the MCI converter group, the amount of glucose utilisation reduction was linked to the time to conversion but not to atrophy. Our findings indicate that FDG-PET might be more closely linked to future cognitive decline whilst MRI being more closely related to the current cognitive state reflects potentially irreversible damage.