SuperWASP observations of long timescale photometric variations in cataclysmic variables

Aims: We investigated whether the predictions and results of Stanishev et al. (2002, A&A, 394, 625) concerning a possible relationship between eclipse depths in PX And and its retrograde disc precession phase, could be confirmed in long term observations made by SuperWASP. In addition, two further CVs (DQ Her and V795 Her) in the same SuperWASP data set were investigated to see whether evidence of superhump periods and disc precession periods were present and what other, if any, long term periods could be detected. Methods: Long term photometry of PX And, V795 Her and DQ Her was carried out and Lomb-Scargle periodogram analysis undertaken on the resulting light curves. For the two eclipsing CVs, PX And and DQ Her, we analysed the potential variations in the depth of the eclipse with cycle number. Results: The results of our period and eclipse analysis on PX And confirm that the negative superhump period is 0.1417 ± 0.0001d. We find no evidence of positive superhumps in our data suggesting that PX And may have been in a low state during our observations. We improve on existing estimates of the disc precession period and find it to be 4.43 ± 0.05d. Our results confirm the predictions of Stanishev et al. (2002). We find that DQ Her does not appear to show a similar variation for we find no evidence of negative superhumps or of a retrograde disc precession. We also find no evidence of positive superhumps or of a prograde disc precession and we attribute the lack of positive superhumps in DQ Her to be due to the high mass ratio of this CV. We do however find evidence for a modulation of the eclipse depth over a period of 100 days which may be linked with solar-type magnetic cycles which give rise to long term photometric variations. The periodogram analysis for V795 Her detected the likely positive superhump period 0.1165d, however, neither the 0.10826d orbital period nor the prograde 1.53d disc precession period were seen. Here though we have found a variation in the periodogram power function at the positive superhump period, over a period of at least 120 days.

Continuous variation in the pattern of marine v. freshwater foraging in brown trout Salmo trutta L. from Loch Lomond, Scotland

Carbon stable-isotope analysis showed that individual brown trout Salmo trutta in Loch Lomond adopted strategies intermediate to that of freshwater residency or anadromy, suggesting either repeated movement between freshwater and marine environments, or estuarine residency. Carbon stable-isotope (delta C-13) values from Loch Lomond brown trout muscle tissue ranged from those indicative of assimilation of purely freshwater-derived carbon to those reflecting significant utilization of marine-derived carbon. A single isotope, two-source mixing model indicated that, on average, marine C made a 33% contribution to the muscle tissue C of Loch Lomond brown trout. Nitrogen stable isotope, delta N-15, but not delta C-13 was correlated with fork length suggesting that larger fish were feeding at a higher trophic level but that marine feeding was not indicated by larger body size. These results are discussed with reference to migration patterns in other species. (c) 2008 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2008 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Two-stage mixed discrete-continuous identification of radial basis function (RBF) neural models for nonlinear systems

The identification of nonlinear dynamic systems using radial basis function (RBF) neural models is studied in this paper. Given a model selection criterion, the main objective is to effectively and efficiently build a parsimonious compact neural model that generalizes well over unseen data. This is achieved by simultaneous model structure selection and optimization of the parameters over the continuous parameter space. It is a mixed-integer hard problem, and a unified analytic framework is proposed to enable an effective and efficient two-stage mixed discrete-continuous; identification procedure. This novel framework combines the advantages of an iterative discrete two-stage subset selection technique for model structure determination and the calculus-based continuous optimization of the model parameters. Computational complexity analysis and simulation studies confirm the efficacy of the proposed algorithm.

Continuous flow hydroformylation using supported ionic liquid phase catalysts with carbon dioxide as a carrier.

A supported ionic liquid phase (SILP) catalyst prepared from [PrMIM][Ph2P(3-C6H4SO3)] (PrMIM = 1-propyl-3-methylimidazolium), [Rh(CO)(2)(acac)] (acacH = 2,4-pentanedione) [OctMIM]NTf2 (OctMIM = 1-n-octyl-3-methylimidazolium, Tf = CF3SO2) and microporous silica has been used for the continuous flow hydroformylation of 1-octene in the presence of compressed CO2. Statistical experimental design was used to show that the reaction rate is neither much affected by the film thickness (IL loading) nor by the syngas: substrate ratio. However, a factor-dependent interaction between the syngas: substrate ratio and film thickness on the reaction rate was revealed. Increasing the substrate flow led to increased reaction rates but lower overall yields. One of the most important parameters proved to be the phase behaviour of the mobile phase, which was studied by varying the reaction pressure. At low CO2 pressures or when N-2 was used instead of CO2 rates were low because of poor gas diffusion to the catalytic sites in the SILP. Furthermore, leaching of IL and Rh was high because the substrate is liquid and the IL had been designed to dissolve in it. As the CO2 pressure was increased, the reaction rate increased and the IL and Rh leaching were reduced, because an expanded liquid phase developed. Due to its lower viscosity the expanded liquid allows better transport of gases to the catalyst and is a poorer solvent for the IL and the catalyst because of its reduced polarity. Above 100 bar (close to the transition to a single phase at 106 bar), the rate of reaction dropped again with increasing pressure because the flowing phase becomes a better and better solvent for the alkene, reducing its partitioning into the IL film. Under optimised conditions, the catalyst was shown to be stable over at least 40 h of continuous catalysis with a steady state turnover frequency (TOF, mol product (mol Rh)(-1)) of 500 h(-1) at low Rh leaching (0.2 ppm). The selectivity of the catalyst was not much affected by the variation of process parameters. The linear: branched (1:b) ratios were ca. 3, similar to that obtained using the very same catalyst in conventional organic solvents.

Efficient Evaluation of Multidimensional Time-Varying Density Forecasts

We propose two simple evaluation methods for time varying density forecasts of continuous higher dimensional random variables. Both methods are based on the probability integral transformation for unidimensional forecasts. The first method tests multinormal densities and relies on the rotation of the coordinate system. The advantage of the second method is not only its applicability to any continuous distribution but also the evaluation of the forecast accuracy in specific regions of its domain as defined by the user’s interest. We show that the latter property is particularly useful for evaluating a multidimensional generalization of the Value at Risk. In simulations and in an empirical study, we examine the performance of both tests.

ARE OECD MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES TREND STATIONARY? EVIDENCE FROM PANEL STATIONARITY TESTS ALLOWING FOR A STRUCTURAL BREAK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE

This article applies the panel stationarity test with a break proposed by Hadri and Rao (2008) to examine whether 14 macroeconomic variables of OECD countries can be best represented as random walk or stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend. In contrast to previous studies, based essentially on visual inspection of the break type or just applying the most general break model, we use a model selection procedure based on BIC. We do this for each time series so that heterogeneous break models are allowed for in the panel. Our results suggest, overwhelmingly, that if we account for a structural break, cross-sectional dependence and choose the break models to be congruent with the data, then the null of stationarity cannot be rejected for all the 14 macroeconomic variables examined in this article. This is in sharp contrast with the results obtained by Hurlin (2004), using the same data but a different methodology.

Intermittent versus continuous oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine combination chemotherapy for first-line treatment of advanced colorectal cancer: results of the randomised phase 3 MRC COIN trial

Background: When cure is impossible, cancer treatment should focus on both length and quality of life. Maximisation of time without toxic effects could be one effective strategy to achieve both of these goals. The COIN trial assessed preplanned treatment holidays in advanced colorectal cancer to achieve this aim. Methods: COIN was a randomised controlled trial in patients with previously untreated advanced colorectal cancer. Patients received either continuous oxaliplatin and fluoropyrimidine combination (arm A), continuous chemotherapy plus cetuximab (arm B), or intermittent (arm C) chemotherapy. In arms A and B, treatment continued until development of progressive disease, cumulative toxic effects, or the patient chose to stop. In arm C, patients who had not progressed at their 12-week scan started a chemotherapy-free interval until evidence of disease progression, when the same treatment was restarted. Randomisation was done centrally (via telephone) by the MRC Clinical Trials Unit using minimisation. Treatment allocation was not masked. The comparison of arms A and B is described in a companion paper. Here, we compare arms A and C, with the primary objective of establishing whether overall survival on intermittent therapy was non-inferior to that on continuous therapy, with a predefined non-inferiority boundary of 1·162. Intention-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol analyses were done. This trial is registered, ISRCTN27286448. Findings: 1630 patients were randomly assigned to treatment groups (815 to continuous and 815 to intermittent therapy). Median survival in the ITT population (n=815 in both groups) was 15·8 months (IQR 9·4—26·1) in arm A and 14·4 months (8·0—24·7) in arm C (hazard ratio [HR] 1·084, 80% CI 1·008—1·165). In the per-protocol population (arm A, n=467; arm C, n=511), median survival was 19·6 months (13·0—28·1) in arm A and 18·0 months (12·1—29·3) in arm C (HR 1·087, 0·986—1·198). The upper limits of CIs for HRs in both analyses were greater than the predefined non-inferiority boundary. Preplanned subgroup analyses in the per-protocol population showed that a raised baseline platelet count, defined as 400 000 per µL or higher (271 [28%] of 978 patients), was associated with poor survival with intermittent chemotherapy: the HR for comparison of arm C and arm A in patients with a normal platelet count was 0·96 (95% CI 0·80—1·15, p=0·66), versus 1·54 (1·17—2·03, p=0·0018) in patients with a raised platelet count (p=0·0027 for interaction). In the per-protocol population, more patients on continuous than on intermittent treatment had grade 3 or worse haematological toxic effects (72 [15%] vs 60 [12%]), whereas nausea and vomiting were more common on intermittent treatment (11 [2%] vs 43 [8%]). Grade 3 or worse peripheral neuropathy (126 [27%] vs 25 [5%]) and hand—foot syndrome (21 [4%] vs 15 [3%]) were more frequent on continuous than on intermittent treatment. Interpretation: Although this trial did not show non-inferiority of intermittent compared with continuous chemotherapy for advanced colorectal cancer in terms of overall survival, chemotherapy-free intervals remain a treatment option for some patients with advanced colorectal cancer, offering reduced time on chemotherapy, reduced cumulative toxic effects, and improved quality of life. Subgroup analyses suggest that patients with normal baseline platelet counts could gain the benefits of intermittent chemotherapy without detriment in survival, whereas those with raised baseline platelet counts have impaired survival and quality of life with intermittent chemotherapy and should not receive a treatment break.