Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of phase equilibrium and vapor adsorption on carbon black based on a combination of a lattice theory and equation of state

A thermodynamic approach is developed in this paper to describe the behavior of a subcritical fluid in the neighborhood of vapor-liquid interface and close to a graphite surface. The fluid is modeled as a system of parallel molecular layers. The Helmholtz free energy of the fluid is expressed as the sum of the intrinsic Helmholtz free energies of separate layers and the potential energy of their mutual interactions calculated by the 10-4 potential. This Helmholtz free energy is described by an equation of state (such as the Bender or Peng-Robinson equation), which allows us a convenient means to obtain the intrinsic Helmholtz free energy of each molecular layer as a function of its two-dimensional density. All molecular layers of the bulk fluid are in mechanical equilibrium corresponding to the minimum of the total potential energy. In the case of adsorption the external potential exerted by the graphite layers is added to the free energy. The state of the interface zone between the liquid and the vapor phases or the state of the adsorbed phase is determined by the minimum of the grand potential. In the case of phase equilibrium the approach leads to the distribution of density and pressure over the transition zone. The interrelation between the collision diameter and the potential well depth was determined by the surface tension. It was shown that the distance between neighboring molecular layers substantially changes in the vapor-liquid transition zone and in the adsorbed phase with loading. The approach is considered in this paper for the case of adsorption of argon and nitrogen on carbon black. In both cases an excellent agreement with the experimental data was achieved without additional assumptions and fitting parameters, except for the fluid-solid potential well depth. The approach has far-reaching consequences and can be readily extended to the model of adsorption in slit pores of carbonaceous materials and to the analysis of multicomponent adsorption systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Modeling of gas adsorption equilibrium over a wide range of pressure: A thermodynamic approach based on equation of state

A thermodynamic approach based on the Bender equation of state is suggested for the analysis of supercritical gas adsorption on activated carbons at high pressure. The approach accounts for the equality of the chemical potential in the adsorbed phase and that in the corresponding bulk phase and the distribution of elements of the adsorption volume (EAV) over the potential energy for gas-solid interaction. This scheme is extended to subcritical fluid adsorption and takes into account the phase transition in EAV The method is adapted to gravimetric measurements of mass excess adsorption and has been applied to the adsorption of argon, nitrogen, methane, ethane, carbon dioxide, and helium on activated carbon Norit R I in the temperature range from 25 to 70 C. The distribution function of adsorption volume elements over potentials exhibits overlapping peaks and is consistently reproduced for different gases. It was found that the distribution function changes weakly with temperature, which was confirmed by its comparison with the distribution function obtained by the same method using nitrogen adsorption isotherm at 77 K. It was shown that parameters such as pore volume and skeleton density can be determined directly from adsorption measurements, while the conventional approach of helium expansion at room temperature can lead to erroneous results due to the adsorption of helium in small pores of activated carbon. The approach is a convenient tool for analysis and correlation of excess adsorption isotherms over a wide range of pressure and temperature. This approach can be readily extended to the analysis of multicomponent adsorption systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Mixed gas equilibrium adsorption on zeolites and energetic heterogeneity of adsorption volume

A model for binary mixture adsorption accounting for energetic heterogeneity and intermolecular interactions is proposed in this paper. The model is based on statistical thermodynamics, and it is able to describe molecular rearrangement of a mixture in a nonuniform adsorption field inside a cavity. The Helmholtz free energy obtained in the framework of this approach has upper and lower limits, which define a permissible range in which all possible solutions will be found. One limit corresponds to a completely chaotic distribution of molecules within a cavity, while the other corresponds to a maximum ordered molecular structure. Comparison of the nearly ideal O-2-N-2-zeolite NaX system at ambient temperature with the system Of O-2-N-2-zeolite CaX at 144 K has shown that a decrease of temperature leads to a molecular rearrangement in the cavity volume, which results from the difference in the fluid-solid interactions. The model is able to describe this behavior and therefore allows predicting mixture adsorption more accurately compared to those assuming energetic uniformity of the adsorption volume. Another feature of the model is its ability to correctly describe the negative deviations from Raoult's law exhibited by the O-2-N-2-CaX system at 144 K. Analysis of the highly nonideal CO2-C2H6-zeolite NaX system has shown that the spatial molecular rearrangement in separate cavities is induced by not only the ion-quadrupole interaction of the CO2 molecule but also the significant difference in molecular size and the difference between the intermolecular interactions of molecules of the same species and those of molecules of different species. This leads to the highly ordered structure of this system.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling activated sludge flocculation using population balances

Activated sludge flocculation was modelled using population balances. The model followed the dynamics of activated sludge flocculation providing a good approximation of the change in mean floe size with time. Increasing the average velocity gradient decreased the final floe size. The breakage rate coefficient and collision efficiency also varied with the average velocity gradient. A power law relationship was found for the increase in breakage rate coefficient with increasing average velocity gradient. Further investigation will be conducted to determine the relationship between the collision efficiency and particle size to provide a better approximation of dynamic changes in the floe size distribution during flocculation. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Modelling the activated sludge flocculation process combining laser light diffraction particle sizing and population balance modelling (PBM)

A technique based on laser light diffraction is shown to be successful in collecting on-line experimental data. Time series of floc size distributions (FSD) under different shear rates (G) and calcium additions were collected. The steady state mass mean diameter decreased with increasing shear rate G and increased when calcium additions exceeded 8 mg/l. A so-called population balance model (PBM) was used to describe the experimental data, This kind of model describes both aggregation and breakage through birth and death terms. A discretised PBM was used since analytical solutions of the integro-partial differential equations are non-existing. Despite the complexity of the model, only 2 parameters need to be estimated: the aggregation rate and the breakage rate. The model seems, however, to lack flexibility. Also, the description of the floc size distribution (FSD) in time is not accurate.

Diabetes detection in Australian general practice: a comparison of diagnostic criteria

Objectives: To study the influence of different diagnostic criteria on the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and characteristics of those diagnosed. Design and setting: Retrospective analysis of data from the general-practice-based Australian Diabetes Screening Study (January 1994 to June 1995). Participants: 5911 people with no previous diagnosis of diabetes, two or more symptoms or risk factors for diabetes, a random venous plasma glucose (PG) level > 5.5 mmol/L and a subsequent oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) result. Main outcome measure: Prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes based on each of three sets of criteria: 1997 criteria of the American Diabetes Association (ADA), 1996 two-step screening strategy of the Australian Diabetes Society (ADS) (modified according to ADA recommendations about lowered diagnostic fasting PG level), and 1999 definition of the World Health Organization (WHO). Results: Prevalence estimates for undiagnosed diabetes using the American (ADA), Australian (ADS) and WHO criteria (95% CI) were 9.4% (8.7%-10.1%), 16.0% (15.3%-16.7%) and 18.1% (17.1%-19.1%), respectively. People diagnosed with diabetes by fasting PG level (common to all sets of criteria) were more likely to be male and younger than those diagnosed only by 2 h glucose challenge PG level (Australian and WHO criteria only). The Australian (ADS) stepwise screening strategy detected 88% of those who met the WHO criteria for diabetes, including about three-quarters of those with isolated post-challenge hyperglycaemia. Conclusion: The WHO criteria (which include an OGTT result) are preferable to the American (ADA) criteria (which rely totally on fasting PG level), as the latter underestimated the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes by almost a half. The Australian (ADS) strategy identified most of those diagnosed with diabetes by WHO criteria.

Modelling High-Dimensional Data by Mixtures of Factor Analyzers

We focus on mixtures of factor analyzers from the perspective of a method for model-based density estimation from high-dimensional data, and hence for the clustering of such data. This approach enables a normal mixture model to be fitted to a sample of n data points of dimension p, where p is large relative to n. The number of free parameters is controlled through the dimension of the latent factor space. By working in this reduced space, it allows a model for each component-covariance matrix with complexity lying between that of the isotropic and full covariance structure models. We shall illustrate the use of mixtures of factor analyzers in a practical example that considers the clustering of cell lines on the basis of gene expressions from microarray experiments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.