Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Predicting the transition from acute to persistent low back pain

BACKGROUND: Most people experience low back pain (LBP) at least once in their lifetime. Only a minority of them go on to develop persistent LBP. However, the socioeconomic costs of persistent LBP significantly exceed the costs of the initial acute LBP episode. AIMS: To identify factors that influence the progression of acute LBP to the persistent state at an early stage. METHODS: Prospective inception cohort study of patients attending a health practitioner for their first episode of acute LBP or recurrent LBP after a pain free period of at least 6 months. Patients were assessed at baseline addressing occupational and psychological factors as well as pain, disability, quality of life and physical activity and followed up at 3, 6, 12 weeks and 6 months. Variables were combined to the three indices 'working condition', 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' and 'pain and quality of life'. RESULTS: The index 'depression and maladaptive cognitions' was found to be a significant baseline predictor for persistent LBP up to 6 months (OR 5.1; 95% CI: 1.04-25.1). Overall predictive accuracy of the model was 81%. CONCLUSIONS: In this study of patients with acute LBP in a primary care setting psychological factors at baseline correlated with a progression to persistent LBP up to 6 months. The benefit of including factors such as 'depression and maladaptive cognition' in screening tools is that these factors can be addressed in primary and secondary prevention.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 2: modelling and optimization

This is the second part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The first part addressed the data requirements and data processing required for empirical transient emission and torque models. The current work focuses on modelling and optimization. The unexpected result of this investigation is that when trained on transient data, simple regression models perform better than more powerful methods such as neural networks or localized regression. This result has been attributed to extrapolation over data that have estimated rather than measured transient air-handling parameters. The challenges of detecting and preventing extrapolation using statistical methods that work well with steady-state data have been explained. The concept of constraining the distribution of statistical leverage relative to the distribution of the starting solution to prevent extrapolation during the optimization process has been proposed and demonstrated. Separate from the issue of extrapolation is preventing the search from being quasi-static. Second-order linear dynamic constraint models have been proposed to prevent the search from returning solutions that are feasible if each point were run at steady state, but which are unrealistic in a transient sense. Dynamic constraint models translate commanded parameters to actually achieved parameters that then feed into the transient emission and torque models. Combined model inaccuracies have been used to adjust the optimized solutions. To frame the optimization problem within reasonable dimensionality, the coefficients of commanded surfaces that approximate engine tables are adjusted during search iterations, each of which involves simulating the entire transient cycle. The resulting strategy, different from the corresponding manual calibration strategy and resulting in lower emissions and efficiency, is intended to improve rather than replace the manual calibration process.

Experimentation with different thermodynamic cycles used for pKa calculations on carboxylic acids using Complete Basis Set and Gaussian-n Models combined with CPCM Continuum Solvation Methods

Complete basis set and Gaussian-n methods were combined with Barone and Cossi's implementation of the polarizable conductor model (CPCM) continuum solvation methods to calculate pKa values for six carboxylic acids. Four different thermodynamic cycles were considered in this work. An experimental value of −264.61 kcal/mol for the free energy of solvation of H+, ΔGs(H+), was combined with a value for Ggas(H+) of −6.28 kcal/mol, to calculate pKa values with cycle 1. The complete basis set gas-phase methods used to calculate gas-phase free energies are very accurate, with mean unsigned errors of 0.3 kcal/mol and standard deviations of 0.4 kcal/mol. The CPCM solvation calculations used to calculate condensed-phase free energies are slightly less accurate than the gas-phase models, and the best method has a mean unsigned error and standard deviation of 0.4 and 0.5 kcal/mol, respectively. Thermodynamic cycles that include an explicit water in the cycle are not accurate when the free energy of solvation of a water molecule is used, but appear to become accurate when the experimental free energy of vaporization of water is used. This apparent improvement is an artifact of the standard state used in the calculation. Geometry relaxation in solution does not improve the results when using these later cycles. The use of cycle 1 and the complete basis set models combined with the CPCM solvation methods yielded pKa values accurate to less than half a pKa unit. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem, 2001

Use of the Supermolecule Approach To Model the Syn and Anti Conformations of Solvated Cyclic 3‘,5‘-Adenosine Monophosphate

The supermolecule approach has been used to model the hydration of cyclic 3‘,5‘-adenosine monophosphate, cAMP. Model building combined with PM3 optimizations predict that the anti conformer of cAMP is capable of hydrogen bonding to an additional solvent water molecule compared to the syn conformer. The addition of one water to the syn superstructure with concurrent rotation of the base about the glycosyl bond to form the anti superstructure leads to an additional enthalpy of stabilization of approximately −6 kcal/mol at the PM3 level. This specific solute−solvent interaction is an example of a large solvent effect, as the method predicts that cAMP has a conformational preference for the anti isomer in solution. This conformational preference results from a change in the number of specific solute−solvent interactions in this system. This prediction could be tested by NMR techniques. The number of waters predicted to be in the first hydration sphere around cAMP is in agreement with the results of hydration studies of nucleotides in DNA. In addition, the detailed picture of solvation about this cyclic nucleotide is in agreement with infrared experimental results.

First-line temozolomide combined with bevacizumab in metastatic melanoma: a multicentre phase II trial (SAKK 50/07)

Oral temozolomide has shown similar efficacy to dacarbazine in phase III trials with median progression-free survival (PFS) of 2.1 months. Bevacizumab has an inhibitory effect on the proliferation of melanoma and sprouting endothelial cells. We evaluated the addition of bevacizumab to temozolomide to improve efficacy in stage IV melanoma.

Proteome analysis in cardiovascular pathophysiology using Dahl rat model

Dahl salt-sensitive (DS) and salt-resistant (DR) inbred rat strains represent a well established animal model for cardiovascular research. Upon prolonged administration of high-salt-containing diet, DS rats develop systemic hypertension, and as a consequence they develop left ventricular hypertrophy, followed by heart failure. The aim of this work was to explore whether this animal model is suitable to identify biomarkers that characterize defined stages of cardiac pathophysiological conditions. The work had to be performed in two stages: in the first part proteomic differences that are attributable to the two separate rat lines (DS and DR) had to be established, and in the second part the process of development of heart failure due to feeding the rats with high-salt-containing diet has to be monitored. This work describes the results of the first stage, with the outcome of protein expression profiles of left ventricular tissues of DS and DR rats kept under low salt diet. Substantial extent of quantitative and qualitative expression differences between both strains of Dahl rats in heart tissue was detected. Using Principal Component Analysis, Linear Discriminant Analysis and other statistical means we have established sets of differentially expressed proteins, candidates for further molecular analysis of the heart failure mechanisms.

Hierarchical Approach for Survivable Network Design

A central design challenge facing network planners is how to select a cost-effective network configuration that can provide uninterrupted service despite edge failures. In this paper, we study the Survivable Network Design (SND) problem, a core model underlying the design of such resilient networks that incorporates complex cost and connectivity trade-offs. Given an undirected graph with specified edge costs and (integer) connectivity requirements between pairs of nodes, the SND problem seeks the minimum cost set of edges that interconnects each node pair with at least as many edge-disjoint paths as the connectivity requirement of the nodes. We develop a hierarchical approach for solving the problem that integrates ideas from decomposition, tabu search, randomization, and optimization. The approach decomposes the SND problem into two subproblems, Backbone design and Access design, and uses an iterative multi-stage method for solving the SND problem in a hierarchical fashion. Since both subproblems are NP-hard, we develop effective optimization-based tabu search strategies that balance intensification and diversification to identify near-optimal solutions. To initiate this method, we develop two heuristic procedures that can yield good starting points. We test the combined approach on large-scale SND instances, and empirically assess the quality of the solutions vis-à-vis optimal values or lower bounds. On average, our hierarchical solution approach generates solutions within 2.7% of optimality even for very large problems (that cannot be solved using exact methods), and our results demonstrate that the performance of the method is robust for a variety of problems with different size and connectivity characteristics.

Hydraulic Conductivity of Model Soil-Bentonite Backfills Subjected to Wet-Dry Cycling

The potential for changes in hydraulic conductivity, k, of two model soil-bentonite (SB) backfills subjected to wet-dry cycling was investigated. The backfills were prepared with the same base soil (clean, fine sand) but different bentonite contents (2.7 and 5.6 dry wt %). Saturation (S), volume change, and k of consolidated backfill specimens (effective stress = 24 kPa) were evaluated over three to seven cycles in which the matric suction, Ym, in the drying stage ranged from 50 to 700 kPa. Both backfills exhibited susceptibility to degradation in k caused by wet-dry cycling. Mean values of k for specimens dried at Ym = 50 kPa (S = 30-60 % after drying) remained low after two cycles, but increased by 5- to 300-fold after three or more cycles. Specimens dried at Ym ≥ 150 kPa (S < 30 % after drying) were less resilient and exhibited 500- to 10 000-fold increases in k after three or more cycles. The greater increases in k for these specimens correlated with greater vertical shrinkage upon drying. The findings suggest that increases in hydraulic conductivity due to wet-dry cycling may be a concern for SB vertical barriers located within the zone of a fluctuating groundwater table.

Life stage differences in mammary gland gene expression profile in non-human primates

Breast cancer (BC) is the most common malignancy of women in the developed world. To better understand its pathogenesis, knowledge of normal breast development is crucial, as BC is the result of disregulation of physiologic processes. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of reproductive life stages on the transcriptional profile of the mammary gland in a primate model. Comparative transcriptomic analyses were carried out using breast tissues from 28 female cynomolgus macaques (Macaca fascicularis) at the following life stages: prepubertal (n = 5), adolescent (n = 4), adult luteal (n = 5), pregnant (n = 6), lactating (n = 3), and postmenopausal (n = 5). Mammary gland RNA was hybridized to Affymetrix GeneChip(®) Rhesus Macaque Genome Arrays. Differential gene expression was analyzed using ANOVA and cluster analysis. Hierarchical cluster analysis revealed distinct separation of life stage groups. More than 2,225 differentially expressed mRNAs were identified. Gene families or pathways that changed across life stages included those related to estrogen and androgen (ESR1, PGR, TFF1, GREB1, AR, 17HSDB2, 17HSDB7, STS, HSD11B1, AKR1C4), prolactin (PRLR, ELF5, STAT5, CSN1S1), insulin-like growth factor signaling (IGF1, IGFBP1, IGFBP5), extracellular matrix (POSTN, TGFB1, COL5A2, COL12A1, FOXC1, LAMC1, PDGFRA, TGFB2), and differentiation (CD24, CD29, CD44, CD61, ALDH1, BRCA1, FOXA1, POSTN, DICER1, LIG4, KLF4, NOTCH2, RIF1, BMPR1A, TGFB2). Pregnancy and lactation displayed distinct patterns of gene expression. ESR1 and IGF1 were significantly higher in the adolescent compared to the adult animals, whereas differentiation pathways were overrepresented in adult animals and pregnancy-associated life stages. Few individual genes were distinctly different in postmenopausal animals. Our data demonstrate characteristic patterns of gene expression during breast development. Several of the pathways activated during pubertal development have been implicated in cancer development and metastasis, supporting the idea that other developmental markers may have application as biomarkers for BC.

Chemotherapy alone versus chemotherapy plus radiotherapy for early stage Hodgkin lymphoma

Background Combined modality treatment (CMT) consisting of chemotherapy followed by localised radiotherapy is standard treatment for patients with early stage Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). However, due to long term adverse effects such as secondary malignancies, the role of radiotherapy has been questioned recently and some clinical study groups advocate chemotherapy only for this indication. Objectives We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing chemotherapy alone with CMT in patients with early stage Hodgkin lymphoma with respect to response rate, progression-free survival (alternatively tumour control) and overall survival (OS). Search methods We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CENTRAL as well as conference proceedings from January 1980 to November 2010 for randomised controlled trials comparing chemotherapy alone to the same chemotherapy regimen plus radiotherapy. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials comparing chemotherapy alone with CMT in patients with early stage HL. Trials in which the chemotherapy differed between treatment arms were excluded. Trials with more than 20% of patients in advanced stage were also excluded. Data collection and analysis Effect measures used were hazard ratios (HR) for tumour control and OS as well as relative risks for response rates. Two review authors independently extracted data and assessed quality of trials. We contacted study authors to obtain missing information. Since none of the trials reported progression-free survival according to our definitions, all similar outcomes were evaluated as tumour control. Main results Five RCTs involving 1245 patients were included. The HR was 0.41 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25 to 0.66) for tumour control and 0.40 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.61) for OS for patients receiving CMT compared to chemotherapy alone. Complete response rates were similar between treatment groups. In sensitivity analyses another six trials were included that did not fulfil the inclusion criteria of our protocol but were considered relevant to the topic. These trials underlined the results of the main analysis. Authors' conclusions Adding radiotherapy to chemotherapy improves tumour control and overall survival in patients with early stage Hodgkin lymphoma.

A new model of interactive effects of alcohol and high-fat diet on hepatic fibrosis

Alcoholic steatohepatitis (ASH) and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are the most frequent conditions leading to elevated liver enzymes and liver cirrhosis, respectively, in the Western world. However, despite strong epidemiological evidence for combined effects on the progression of liver injury, the mutual interaction of the pathophysiological mechanisms is incompletely understood. The aim of this study was to establish and analyze an experimental murine model, where we combined chronic alcohol administration with a NASH-inducing high-fat (HF) diet.

Adsorption behavior of redox-active suppressor additives: Combined electrochemical and STM studies

The redox chemistry and the related surface phase behavior of Safranine (SAF) and Janus Green B (JGB) have been studied by means of cyclic voltammetry in combination with in situ Scanning Tunneling Microscopy using HOPG (Highly Oriented Pyrolytic Graphite) and single crystalline Cu(1 0 0) as model substrates, both revealing different widths of the accessible potential windows. JGB and SAF serve as prototypical heterocyclic suppressor/leveler additives that are used for the metallization of 3D-TSVs (3D Through Silicon Vias) following a classical "leveling" concept. SAF can be considered as the reductive decomposition product of JGB that is formed at the copper/electrolyte interface upon electroplating. Both additives reveal a pronounced pH-dependent redox-chemistry with redox-transitions lying close to or even beyond the anodic limit of the copper potential window. Affected by these redox-processes are in particular the aromatic cores of those heterocycles that can be (quasi)reversibly reduced by a two electron transfer process within the potential window of copper. Therefore we identify the reduced form of those dyes as the active components for the suppressing/leveling effect in copper plating. STM data clearly shows a dye surface phase behavior that is crucially determined by its potential-dependent redox-chemistry. This will be exemplarily discussed for the SAF dye. On chloride-modified Cu(1 0 0) mono-reduced SAF forms a structurally well-defined monolayer of cationic stacking polymers. However, this coupled anion/cation layer reveals only minor suppressing capabilities with respect to the copper dissolution and deposition processes. Complete reduction of the aromatic heterocycle finally leads to the 3D precipitation of hydrophobic reaction products. 3D clusters of this SAF precipitate are discussed as the active structural motif for the suppressing effect of these dyes. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-organised transients in a neural mass model of epileptogenic tissue dynamics

Stimulation of human epileptic tissue can induce rhythmic, self-terminating responses on the EEG or ECoG. These responses play a potentially important role in localising tissue involved in the generation of seizure activity, yet the underlying mechanisms are unknown. However, in vitro evidence suggests that self-terminating oscillations in nervous tissue are underpinned by non-trivial spatio-temporal dynamics in an excitable medium. In this study, we investigate this hypothesis in spatial extensions to a neural mass model for epileptiform dynamics. We demonstrate that spatial extensions to this model in one and two dimensions display propagating travelling waves but also more complex transient dynamics in response to local perturbations. The neural mass formulation with local excitatory and inhibitory circuits, allows the direct incorporation of spatially distributed, functional heterogeneities into the model. We show that such heterogeneities can lead to prolonged reverberating responses to a single pulse perturbation, depending upon the location at which the stimulus is delivered. This leads to the hypothesis that prolonged rhythmic responses to local stimulation in epileptogenic tissue result from repeated self-excitation of regions of tissue with diminished inhibitory capabilities. Combined with previous models of the dynamics of focal seizures this macroscopic framework is a first step towards an explicit spatial formulation of the concept of the epileptogenic zone. Ultimately, an improved understanding of the pathophysiologic mechanisms of the epileptogenic zone will help to improve diagnostic and therapeutic measures for treating epilepsy.

Stocking of captive-bred fish can cause long-term population decline and gene pool replacement: predictions from a population dynamics model incorporating density-dependent mortality

Releasing captive-bred fish into natural environments (stocking) is common in fisheries worldwide. Although stocking is believed to have a positive effect on fish abundance over the short term, little is known about the long-term consequences of recurrent stocking and its influence on natural populations. In fact, there are growing concerns that genetically maladapted captive-bred fish can eventually reduce the abundance of natural population. In this study, we develop a simple model to quantitatively investigate the condition under which recurrent stocking has long-term effects on the natural population. Using a population dynamics model that takes into account a density-dependent recruitment, a gene responsible for the fitness difference between wild and captive-bred fish, and hybridization between them, we show that there is little or no contribution of recurrent stocking to the stock enhancement without a replacement of the wild gene pool by the captive-bred gene pool. The model further predicted that stocking of an intermediate level causes a reduction, rather than enhancement, of population size over the long term. The population decline due to stocking was attributed to the fitness disadvantage of captive-bred fish and strong overcompensation at recruitment stage. These results suggest that it would be difficult to simultaneously attain population size recovery and conservation of the local gene pool when captive-bred fish have fitness disadvantage in the wild, although caution is needed when applying the predictions from the simplified model to a specific species or population.