Quantifying the effects of climate change and water abstraction on a population of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), a diadromous estuarine finfish

Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.

Feasibility of a stepped wedge cluster RCT and concurrent observational sub-study to evaluate the effects of modified ward night lighting on inpatient fall rates and sleep quality: A protocol for a pilot trial

Background: Falls among hospitalised patients impose a considerable burden on health systems globally and prevention is a priority. Some patient-level interventions have been effective in reducing falls, but others have not. An alternative and promising approach to reducing inpatient falls is through the modification of the hospital physical environment and the night lighting of hospital wards is a leading candidate for investigation. In this pilot trial, we will determine the feasibility of conducting a main trial to evaluate the effects of modified night lighting on inpatient ward level fall rates. We will test also the feasibility of collecting novel forms of patient level data through a concurrent observational sub-study. Methods/design: A stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial will be conducted in six inpatient wards over 14 months in a metropolitan teaching hospital in Brisbane (Australia). The intervention will consist of supplementary night lighting installed across all patient rooms within study wards. The planned placement of luminaires, configurations and spectral characteristics are based on prior published research and pre-trial testing and modification. We will collect data on rates of falls on study wards (falls per 1000 patient days), the proportion of patients who fall once or more, and average length of stay. We will recruit two patients per ward per month to a concurrent observational sub-study aimed at understanding potential impacts on a range of patient sleep and mobility behaviour. The effect on the environment will be monitored with sensors to detect variation in light levels and night-time room activity. We will also collect data on possible patient-level confounders including demographics, pre-admission sleep quality, reported vision, hearing impairment and functional status. Discussion: This pragmatic pilot trial will assess the feasibility of conducting a main trial to investigate the effects of modified night lighting on inpatient fall rates using several new methods previously untested in the context of environmental modifications and patient safety. Pilot data collected through both parts of the trial will be utilised to inform sample size calculations, trial design and final data collection methods for a subsequent main trial.

Experimental investigation of the effects of oxygenated fuels on exhaust emissions in a heavy duty diesel engine

Physical and chemical properties of biofuels vary among various feedstocks and their subsequent conversions to fuels. The biofuels contain various amounts of oxygen, and this has a significant influence on exhaust emission. This oxygen content has been considered in order to investigate its effect on diesel engine exhaust emissions. The experiments have been conducted with a heavy duty diesel engine and various oxygenated fuels. It is found that the amount of oxygen in the fuel has a high level of influence on its exhaust emissions, and this provides agreement with diesel emissions results such as PN reduction. By increasing the amount of oxygen in the blend (by adding more biofuel), the particulate number (PN) is reduced and NOx increases gradually. However, the variation of PN and NOx are not similar for waste cooking biodiesel (WCBD) and butanol blend, even though their oxygen content are the same in the blends. This is due to the source of the biofuel and their internal chemistry.

A matter of taste : genetic and environmental influences on responses to sweetness

Diet is a major player in the maintenance of health and onset of many diseases of public health importance. The food choice is known to be largely influenced by sensory preferences. However, in many cases it is unclear whether these preferences and dietary behaviors are innate or acquired. The aim of this thesis work was to study the extent to which the individual differences in dietary responses, especially in liking for sweet taste, are influenced by genetic factors. Several traits measuring the responses to sweetness and other dietary variables were applied in four studies: in British (TwinsUK) and Finnish (FinnTwin12 and FinnTwin16) twin studies and in a Finnish migraine family study. All the subjects were adults and they participated in chemosensory measurements (taste and smell tests) and filled in food behavior questionnaires. Further, it was studied, whether the correlations among the variables are mediated by genetic or environmental factors and where in the genome the genes influencing the heritable traits are located. A study of young adult Finnish twins (FinnTwin16, n=4388) revealed that around 40% of the food use is attributable to genetic factors and that the common, childhood environment does not affect the food use even shortly after moving from the parents home. Both the family study (n=146) and the twin studies (British twins, n=663) showed that around half of the variation in the liking for sweetness is inherited. The same result was obtained both by the chemosensory measurements (heritability 41-49%) and the questionnaire variables (heritability 31-54%). By contrast, the intensity perception of sweetness or the responses to saltiness were not influenced by genetic factors. Further, a locus influencing the use-frequency of sweet foods was identified on chromosome 16p. A closer examination of the relationships among the variables based on 663 British twins revealed that several genetic and environmental correlations exist among the different measures of liking for sweetness. However, these correlations were not very strong (range 0.06-0.55) implying that the instruments used measure slightly different aspects of the phenomenon. In addition, the assessment of the associations among responses to fatty foods, dieting behaviors, and body mass index in twin populations (TwinsUK n=1027 and FinnTwin12 n=299) showed that the dieting behaviors (cognitive restraint, uncontrolled eating, and emotional eating) mediate the relationship between obesity and diet. In conclusion, the work increased the understanding of the background variables of human eating behavior. Genetic effects were shown to underlie the variation of many dietary traits, such as liking for sweet taste, use of sweet foods, and dieting behaviors. However, the responses to salty taste were shown to be mainly determined by environmental factors and thus should more easily be modifiable by dietary education, exposure, and learning than sweet taste preferences. Although additional studies are needed to characterize the genetic element located on chromosome 16 that influences the use-frequency of sweet foods, the results underline the importance of inherited factors on human eating behavior.

Spatial and temporal effects of grazing management and rainfall on the vertebrate fauna of a tropical savanna

Grazing by domestic livestock is one of the most widespread uses of the rangelands of Australia. There is limited information on the effects of grazing by domestic livestock on the vertebrate fauna of Australia and the establishment of a long-term grazing experiment in north-eastern Queensland at Wambiana provided an opportunity to attempt an examination of the changes in vertebrate fauna as a consequence of the manipulation of stocking rates. The aim was to identify what the relative effects of vegetation type, stocking rate and other landscape-scale environmental factors were on the patterns recorded. Sixteen 1-ha sites were established within three replicated treatments (moderate, heavy and variable stocking rates). The sites were sampled in the wet and dry seasons in 1999-2000 (T-0) and again in 2003-04 (T-1). All paddocks of the treatments were burnt in 1999. Average annual rainfall declined markedly between the two sampling periods, which made interpretation of the data difficult. A total of 127 species of vertebrate fauna comprising five amphibian, 83 bird, 27 reptile and 12 mammal species were recorded. There was strong separation in faunal composition from T-0 to T-1 although changes in mean compositional dissimilarity between the grazing stocking rate treatments were less well defined. There was a relative change in abundance of 24 bird, four mammal and five reptile species from T-0 to T-1. The generalised linear modelling identified that, in the T-1 data, there was significant variation in the abundance of 16 species explained by the grazing and vegetation factors. This study demonstrated that vertebrate fauna assemblage did change and that these changes were attributable to the interplay between the stocking rates, the vegetation types on the sites surveyed, the burning of the experimental paddocks and the decrease in rainfall over the course of the two surveys. It is recommended that the experiment is sampled again but that the focus should be on a rapid survey of abundant taxa (i.e. birds and reptiles) to allow an increase in the frequency of sampling and replication of the data. This would help to articulate more clearly the trajectory of vertebrate change due to the relative effects of stocking rates compared with wider landscape environmental changes. Given the increasing focus on pastoral development in northern Australia, any opportunity to incorporate the collection of data on biodiversity into grazing manipulation experiments should be taken for the assessment of the effects of land management on faunal species.

Effects of dietary phosphorus and calcium-to-phosphorus ratio on calcium and bone metabolism in healthy 20- to 43-year-old Finnish women

Dietary habits have changed during the past decades towards an increasing consumption of processed foods, which has notably increased not only total dietary phosphorus (P) intake, but also intake of P from phosphate additives. While the intake of calcium (Ca) in many Western countries remains below recommended levels (800 mg/d), the usual daily P intake in a typical Western diet exceeds by 2- to 3-fold the dietary guidelines (600 mg/d). The effects of high P intake in healthy humans have been investigated seldom. In this thesis healthy 20- to 43-year-old women were studied. In the first controlled study (n = 14), we examined the effects of P doses, and in a cross-sectional study (n = 147) the associations of habitual P intakes with Ca and bone metabolism. In this same cross-sectional study, we also investigated whether differences exist between dietary P originating from natural P sources and phosphate additives. The second controlled study (n = 12) investigated whether by increasing the Ca intake, the effects of a high P intake could be reduced. The associations of habitual dietary calcium-to-phosphorus ratios (Ca:P ratio) with Ca and bone metabolism were determined in a cross-sectional study design (n = 147). In the controlled study, the oral intake of P doses (495, 745, 1245 and 1995 mg/d) with a low Ca intake (250 mg/d) increased serum parathyroid hormone (S-PTH) concentration in a dose-dependent manner. In addition, the highest P dose decreased serum ionized calcium (S-iCa) concentration and bone formation and increased bone resorption. In the second controlled study with a dietary P intake of 1850 mg/d, by increasing the Ca intake from 480 mg/d to 1080 mg/d and then to 1680 mg/d, the S-PTH concentration decreased, the S-iCa concentration increased and bone resorption decreased dose-dependently. However, not even the highest Ca intake could counteract the effect of high dietary P on bone formation, as indicated by unchanged bone formation activity. In the cross-sectional studies, a higher habitual dietary P intake (>1650 mg/d) was associated with lower S-iCa and higher S-PTH concentrations. The consumption of phosphate additive-containing foods was associated with a higher S-PTH concentration. Moreover, habitual low dietary Ca:P ratios (≤0.50, molar ratio) were associated with higher S-PTH concentrations and 24-h urinary Ca excretions, suggesting that low dietary Ca:P ratios may interfere with homeostasis of Ca metabolism and increase bone resorption. In summary, excessive dietary P intake in healthy Finnish women seems to be detrimental to Ca and bone metabolism, especially when dietary Ca intake is low. The results indicate that by increasing dietary Ca intake to the recommended level, the negative effects of high P intake could be diminished, but not totally prevented. These findings imply that phosphate additives may be more harmful than natural P. Thus, reduction of an excessively high dietary P intake is also beneficial for healthy individuals.

The short-term effects of a routine poisoning campaign on the movements and detectability of a social top-predator

Top-predators can be important components of resilient ecosystems, but they are still controlled in many places to mitigate a variety of economic, environmental and/or social impacts. Lethal control is often achieved through the broad-scale application of poisoned baits. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of such lethal control on subsequent movements and behaviour of survivors is an important pre-requisite for interpreting the efficacy and ecological outcomes of top-predator control. In this study, we use GPS tracking collars to investigate the fine-scale and short-term movements of dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and other wild dogs) in response to a routine poison-baiting program as an example of how a common, social top-predator can respond (behaviourally) to moderate levels of population reduction. We found no consistent control-induced differences in home range size or location, daily distance travelled, speed of travel, temporal activity patterns or road/trail usage for the seven surviving dingoes we monitored immediately before and after a typical lethal control event. These data suggest that the spatial behaviour of surviving dingoes was not altered in ways likely to affect their detectability, and if control-induced changes in dingoes' ecological function did occur, these may not be related to altered spatial behaviour or movement patterns.

Spatial and temporal variability in midge (Nematocera) assemblages in shallow Finnish lakes (60−70 °N) : community-based modelling of past environmental change

Multi- and intralake datasets of fossil midge assemblages in surface sediments of small shallow lakes in Finland were studied to determine the most important environmental factors explaining trends in midge distribution and abundance. The aim was to develop palaeoenvironmental calibration models for the most important environmental variables for the purpose of reconstructing past environmental conditions. The developed models were applied to three high-resolution fossil midge stratigraphies from southern and eastern Finland to interpret environmental variability over the past 2000 years, with special focus on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and recent anthropogenic changes. The midge-based results were compared with physical properties of the sediment, historical evidence and environmental reconstructions based on diatoms (Bacillariophyta), cladocerans (Crustacea: Cladocera) and tree rings. The results showed that the most important environmental factor controlling midge distribution and abundance along a latitudinal gradient in Finland was the mean July air temperature (TJul). However, when the dataset was environmentally screened to include only pristine lakes, water depth at the sampling site became more important. Furthermore, when the dataset was geographically scaled to southern Finland, hypolimnetic oxygen conditions became the dominant environmental factor. The results from an intralake dataset from eastern Finland showed that the most important environmental factors controlling midge distribution within a lake basin were river contribution, water depth and submerged vegetation patterns. In addition, the results of the intralake dataset showed that the fossil midge assemblages represent fauna that lived in close proximity to the sampling sites, thus enabling the exploration of within-lake gradients in midge assemblages. Importantly, this within-lake heterogeneity in midge assemblages may have effects on midge-based temperature estimations, because samples taken from the deepest point of a lake basin may infer considerably colder temperatures than expected, as shown by the present test results. Therefore, it is suggested here that the samples in fossil midge studies involving shallow boreal lakes should be taken from the sublittoral, where the assemblages are most representative of the whole lake fauna. Transfer functions between midge assemblages and the environmental forcing factors that were significantly related with the assemblages, including mean air TJul, water depth, hypolimnetic oxygen, stream flow and distance to littoral vegetation, were developed using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) techniques, which outperformed all the other tested numerical approaches. Application of the models in downcore studies showed mostly consistent trends. Based on the present results, which agreed with previous studies and historical evidence, the Medieval Climate Anomaly between ca. 800 and 1300 AD in eastern Finland was characterized by warm temperature conditions and dry summers, but probably humid winters. The Little Ice Age (LIA) prevailed in southern Finland from ca. 1550 to 1850 AD, with the coldest conditions occurring at ca. 1700 AD, whereas in eastern Finland the cold conditions prevailed over a longer time period, from ca. 1300 until 1900 AD. The recent climatic warming was clearly represented in all of the temperature reconstructions. In the terms of long-term climatology, the present results provide support for the concept that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index has a positive correlation with winter precipitation and annual temperature and a negative correlation with summer precipitation in eastern Finland. In general, the results indicate a relatively warm climate with dry summers but snowy winters during the MCA and a cool climate with rainy summers and dry winters during the LIA. The results of the present reconstructions and the forthcoming applications of the models can be used in assessments of long-term environmental dynamics to refine the understanding of past environmental reference conditions and natural variability required by environmental scientists, ecologists and policy makers to make decisions concerning the presently occurring global, regional and local changes. The developed midge-based models for temperature, hypolimnetic oxygen, water depth, littoral vegetation shift and stream flow, presented in this thesis, are open for scientific use on request.

Enhanced processing of SPOT multispectral satellite imagery for environmental monitoring and modelling

The Taita Hills in southeastern Kenya form the northernmost part of Africa’s Eastern Arc Mountains, which have been identified by Conservation International as one of the top ten biodiversity hotspots on Earth. As with many areas of the developing world, over recent decades the Taita Hills have experienced significant population growth leading to associated major changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as escalating land degradation, particularly soil erosion. Multi-temporal medium resolution multispectral optical satellite data, such as imagery from the SPOT HRV, HRVIR, and HRG sensors, provides a valuable source of information for environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level at local and regional scales. However, utilization of multi-temporal SPOT data in quantitative remote sensing studies requires the removal of atmospheric effects and the derivation of surface reflectance factor. Furthermore, for areas of rugged terrain, such as the Taita Hills, topographic correction is necessary to derive comparable reflectance throughout a SPOT scene. Reliable monitoring of LULC change over time and modelling of land degradation and human population distribution and abundance are of crucial importance to sustainable development, natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and understanding and mitigating climate change and its impacts. The main purpose of this thesis was to develop and validate enhanced processing of SPOT satellite imagery for use in environmental monitoring and modelling at a landscape level, in regions of the developing world with limited ancillary data availability. The Taita Hills formed the application study site, whilst the Helsinki metropolitan region was used as a control site for validation and assessment of the applied atmospheric correction techniques, where multiangular reflectance field measurements were taken and where horizontal visibility meteorological data concurrent with image acquisition were available. The proposed historical empirical line method (HELM) for absolute atmospheric correction was found to be the only applied technique that could derive surface reflectance factor within an RMSE of < 0.02 ps in the SPOT visible and near-infrared bands; an accuracy level identified as a benchmark for successful atmospheric correction. A multi-scale segmentation/object relationship modelling (MSS/ORM) approach was applied to map LULC in the Taita Hills from the multi-temporal SPOT imagery. This object-based procedure was shown to derive significant improvements over a uni-scale maximum-likelihood technique. The derived LULC data was used in combination with low cost GIS geospatial layers describing elevation, rainfall and soil type, to model degradation in the Taita Hills in the form of potential soil loss, utilizing the simple universal soil loss equation (USLE). Furthermore, human population distribution and abundance were modelled with satisfactory results using only SPOT and GIS derived data and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. The SPOT derived LULC data was found to be unnecessary as a predictor because the first and second order image texture measurements had greater power to explain variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. The ability of the procedures to be implemented locally in the developing world using low-cost or freely available data and software was considered. The techniques discussed in this thesis are considered equally applicable to other medium- and high-resolution optical satellite imagery, as well the utilized SPOT data.

Non-cellulosic cell wall polysaccharides are subject to genotype × environment effects in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) grain

Sorghum is a staple food for half a billion people and, through growth on marginal land with minimal inputs, is an important source of feed, forage and increasingly, biofuel feedstock. Here we present information about non-cellulosic cell wall polysaccharides in a diverse set of cultivated and wild Sorghum bicolor grains. Sorghum grain contains predominantly starch (64–76) but is relatively deficient in other polysaccharides present in wheat, oats and barley. Despite overall low quantities, sorghum germplasm exhibited a remarkable range in polysaccharide amount and structure. Total (1,3;1,4)-β-glucan ranged from 0.06 to 0.43 (w/w) whilst internal cellotriose:cellotetraose ratios ranged from 1.8 to 2.9:1. Arabinoxylan amounts fell between 1.5 and 3.6 (w/w) and the arabinose:xylose ratio, denoting arabinoxylan structure, ranged from 0.95 to 1.35. The distribution of these and other cell wall polysaccharides varied across grain tissues as assessed by electron microscopy. When ten genotypes were tested across five environmental sites, genotype (G) was the dominant source of variation for both (1,3;1,4)-β-glucan and arabinoxylan content (69–74), with environment (E) responsible for 5–14. There was a small G × E effect for both polysaccharides. This study defines the amount and spatial distribution of polysaccharides and reveals a significant genetic influence on cell wall composition in sorghum grain.

Zero-crossings in turbulent signals

A primary motivation for this work arises from the contradictory results obtained in some recent measurements of the zero-crossing frequency of turbulent fluctuations in shear flows. A systematic study of the various factors involved in zero-crossing measurements shows that the dynamic range of the signal, the discriminator characteristics, filter frequency and noise contamination have a strong bearing on the results obtained. These effects are analysed, and explicit corrections for noise contamination have been worked out. New measurements of the zero-crossing frequency N0 have been made for the longitudinal velocity fluctuation in boundary layers and a wake, for wall shear stress in a channel, and for temperature derivatives in a heated boundary layer. All these measurements show that a zero-crossing microscale, defined as Λ = (2πN0)−1, is always nearly equal to the well-known Taylor microscale λ (in time). These measurements, as well as a brief analysis, show that even strong departures from Gaussianity do not necessarily yield values appreciably different from unity for the ratio Λ/λ. Further, the variation of N0/N0 max across the boundary layer is found to correlate with the familiar wall and outer coordinates; the outer scaling for N0 max is totally inappropriate, and the inner scaling shows only a weak Reynolds-number dependence. It is also found that the distribution of the interval between successive zero-crossings can be approximated by a combination of a lognormal and an exponential, or (if the shortest intervals are ignored) even of two exponentials, one of which characterizes crossings whose duration is of the order of the wall-variable timescale ν/U2*, while the other characterizes crossings whose duration is of the order of the large-eddy timescale δ/U[infty infinity]. The significance of these results is discussed, and it is particularly argued that the pulse frequency of Rao, Narasimha & Badri Narayanan (1971) is appreciably less than the zero-crossing rate.