Linking energy policy, electricity generation and transmission using strong sustainability and co-optimization

The design of a sustainable electricity generation and transmission system is based on the established science of anthropogenic climate change and the realization that depending on imported fossil-fuels is becoming a measure of energy insecurity of supply. A model is proposed which integrates generation fuel mix composition, assignment of plants and optimized power flow, using Portugal as a case study. The result of this co-optimized approach is an overall set of generator types/fuels which increases the diversity of Portuguese electricity supply, lowers its dependency on imported fuels by 14.62% and moves the country towards meeting its regional and international obligations of 31% energy from renewables by 2020 and a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2012, respectively. The quantity and composition of power generation at each bus is specified, with particular focus on quantifying the amount of distributed generation. Based on other works, the resultant, overall distributed capacity penetration of 19.02% of total installed generation is expected to yield positive network benefits. Thus, the model demonstrates that national energy policy and technical deployment can be linked through sustainability and, moreover, that the respective goals may be mutually achieved via holistic, integrated design. ©2009 IEEE.

Temporal trends (2000–2011) and influences on fishery-independent catch rates for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at an important coastal foraging region in the southeastern United States

Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.

Seafood consumption and supply sources in Hawaii, 2000-2009

Measures of consumption and supply sources of seafood can provide valuable input to research and policy planning of a viable food system. This article fills a gap in the existing literature by mapping the existing seafood supply flows from various sources (local, domestic U.S., and foreign) in Hawaii. The authors trace the seafood transshipment of foreign origin via the continental United States to Hawaii and update total and per capita consumption of seafood more accurately by including noncommercial catches into the analysis. Per capita seafood consumption in Hawaii from all commercial sources is estimated at an annual average of 29 edible pounds during the 10-year period from 2000 to 2009. This is significantly more than the 16 edible pounds for all U.S consumption in 2009. Including noncommercial catch, the same measure increases to 37 edible pounds. The eight-pound differential suggests that noncommercial fishing is an important source of seafood supply in Hawaii. Overall, fresh tuna (Thunnus spp.) is the single largest species group consumed, followed by Pacific and Atlantic salmon (Salmonidae). By edible weight, the majority of Hawaii’s commercial seafood supply comes from foreign sources (57%) vs. local sources (37%), and U.S. domestic sources (6%). The leading sources for Hawaii’s direct seafood imports from 2000 to 2009, were Taiwan, Japan, New Zealand, the Philippines, and the Marshall Islands. Local supply becomes the majority source once noncommercial catch is included with 51% of the total supply.

Three decades of U.S. Gulf of Mexico white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, commercial catch statistics

Gulf of Mexico, white shrimp, Litopenaeus setiferus, catch statistics have been collected by NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service for over 50 years. Recent occurrences such as natural and manmade disasters have raised awareness for the need to publish these types of data. Here we report shrimp data collected from 1984 to 2011. These 28 years of catch history are the time series used in the most recent Gulf of Mexico white shrimp stock assessment. Fishing effort for this stock has fluctuated over the period reported, ranging from 54,675 to 162,952 days fished. Catch averaged 55.7 million pounds per year, increasing significantly over the times series. In addition, catch rates have been increasing in recent years, with CPUE levels ranging from 315 lb/day fished in 2002, to 1,175 lb/ day fished in 2008. The high CPUE’s we have measured is one indication that the stock was not in decline during this time period. Consequently, we believe the decline in effort levels is due purely to economic factors. Current stock assessments are now using these baseline data to provide managers with further insights into the Gulf L. setiferus stocks.

The statistical properties of recreational catch rate data for some fish stocks off the northeast U.S. coast

Recreational fisheries in the waters off the northeast U.S. target a variety of pelagic and demersal fish species, and catch and effort data sampled from recreational fisheries are a critical component of the information used in resource evaluation and management. Standardized indices of stock abundance developed from recreational fishery catch rates are routinely used in stock assessments. The statistical properties of both simulated and empirical recreational fishery catch-rate data such as those collected by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS) are examined, and the potential effects of different assumptions about the error structure of the catch-rate frequency distributions in computing indices of stock abundance are evaluated. Recreational fishery catch distributions sampled by the MRFSS are highly contagious and overdispersed in relation to the normal distribution and are generally best characterized by the Poisson or negative binomial distributions. The modeling of both the simulated and empirical MRFSS catch rates indicates that one may draw erroneous conclusions about stock trends by assuming the wrong error distribution in procedures used to developed standardized indices of stock abundance. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only the overall model fit and significance of classification effects, but also the possible effects of model misspecification, when determining the most appropriate model construction.

Does the size of subsamples taken from multispecies trawl catches affect estimates of catch composition and abundance?

Although subsampling is a common method for describing the composition of large and diverse trawl catches, the accuracy of these techniques is often unknown. We determined the sampling errors generated from estimating the percentage of the total number of species recorded in catches, as well as the abundance of each species, at each increase in the proportion of the sorted catch. We completely partitioned twenty prawn trawl catches from tropical northern Australia into subsamples of about 10 kg each. All subsamples were then sorted, and species numbers recorded. Catch weights ranged from 71 to 445 kg, and the number of fish species in trawls ranged from 60 to 138, and invertebrate species from 18 to 63. Almost 70% of the species recorded in catches were “rare” in subsamples (less than one individual per 10 kg subsample or less than one in every 389 individuals). A matrix was used to show the increase in the total number of species that were recorded in each catch as the percentage of the sorted catch increased. Simulation modelling showed that sorting small subsamples (about 10% of catch weights) identified about 50% of the total number of species caught in a trawl. Larger subsamples (50% of catch weight on average) identified about 80% of the total species caught in a trawl. The accuracy of estimating the abundance of each species also increased with increasing subsample size. For the “rare” species, sampling error was around 80% after sorting 10% of catch weight and was just less than 50% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted. For the “abundant” species (five or more individuals per 10 kg subsample or five or more in every 389 individuals), sampling error was around 25% after sorting 10% of catch weight, but was reduced to around 10% after 40% of catch weight had been sorted.

Distribution, demography, and discard mortality of crabs caught as bycatch in an experimental pot fishery for toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) in the South Atlantic

Between March 2000 and April 2001 two commercial fishing vessels fished for toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) off South Georgia using pots. A significant number of lithodid crabs (three species of Paralomis spp.) were caught as bycatch. Paralomis spinosissima occurred in shallow water, generally shallower than 700 m. Paralomis anamerae, not previously reported from this area and therefore representing a considerable southerly extension in the reported geographic range of this species, had an intermediate depth distribution from 400 to 800 m. Paralomis formosa was present in shallow waters but reached much higher catch levels (and, presumably, densities) between 800 and 1400 m. Differences were also noted in depth distribution of the sexes and size of crabs. Depth, soak time, and area were found to significantly influence crab catch rates. Few crabs (3% of P. spinosissima and 7% of P. formosa) were males above the legal size limit and could therefore be retained. All other crabs were discarded. Most crabs (>99% of P. formosa, >97% of P. spinosissima, and >90% of P. anamerae) were lively on arrival on deck and at subsequent discard. Mortality rates estimated from re-immersion experiments indicated that on the vessel where pots were emptied directly onto the factory conveyor belt 78–89% of crabs would survive discarding, whereas on the vessel where crabs were emptied down a vertical chute prior to being sorted, survivorship was 38–58%. Of the three, P. anamerae was the most vulnerable to handling onboard and sub-sequent discarding. Paralomis spinosissima seemed more vulnerable than P. formosa.

Longitudinal logbook survey designs for estimating recreational fishery catch, with application to ayu (Plecoglossus altivelis)

Longitudinal surveys of anglers or boat owners are widely used in recreational fishery management to estimate total catch over a fishing season. Survey designs with repeated measures of the same random sample over time are effective if the goal is to show statistically significant differences among point estimates for successive time intervals. However, estimators for total catch over the season that are based on longitudinal sampling will be less precise than stratified estimators based on successive independent samples. Conventional stratified variance estimators would be negatively biased if applied to such data because the samples for different time strata are not independent. We formulated new general estimators for catch rate, total catch, and respective variances that sum across time strata but also account for correlation stratum samples. A case study of the Japanese recreational fishery for ayu (Plecoglossus altivelis) showed that the conventional stratified variance estimate of total catch was about 10% of the variance estimated by our new method. Combining the catch data for each angler or boat owners throughout the season reduced the variance of the total catch estimate by about 75%. For successive independent surveys based on random independent samples, catch, and variance estimators derived from combined data would be the same as conventional stratified estimators when sample allocation is proportional to strata size. We are the first to report annual catch estimates for ayu in a Japanese river by formulating modified estimators for day-permit anglers.