An analysis of inflation rates in the European Union using wavelets : strong evidence against unit roots

In this paper we assume inflation rates in European Union countries may in fact be fractionally integrated. Given this assumption, we obtain estimations of the order of integration by means a method based on wavelets coefficients. Finally, results obtained allow reject the unit root hypothesis on inflation rates. It means that a random shock on the rate of inflation in these countries has transitory effects that gradually diminish with the passage of time, that this, said shock hasn¿t a permanent effect on future values of inflation rates

The geographical concentration of industry across Spanish Regions, 1856-1995

New economic geography models show that there may be a strong relationship between economic integration and the geographical concentration of industries. Nevertheless, this relationship is neither unique nor stable, and may follow a ?-shaped pattern in the long term. The aim of the present paper is to analyze the evolution of the geographical concentration of manufacturing across Spanish regions during the period 1856-1995. We construct several geographical concentration indices for different points in time over these 140 years. The analysis is carried out at two levels of aggregation, in regions corresponding to the NUTS-II and NUTS-III classifications. We confirm that the process of economic integration stimulated the geographical concentration of industrial activity. Nevertheless, the localization coefficients only started to fall after the beginning of the integration of the Spanish Economy into the international markets in the mid-70s, and this new path was not interrupted by Spain¿s entry in the European Union some years later

The cross-cultural generalizability of Zuckerman's alternative Five-Factor Model of personality

The aim of this study was to analyze the cross-cultural generalizability of the alternative Five-Factor Model (AFFM). The total sample was made up of 9,152 subjects from six countries: China, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States. The internal consistencies for all countries were generally similar to those found for the normative American sample. Factor analyses within cultures showed that the normative American structure was replicated in all cultures, however the congruence coefficients were slightly lower in China and Italy. A similar analysis at the facet level confirmed the high cross-cultural replicability of the AFFM. Mean-level comparisons did not always show the hypothesized effects. The mean score differences across countries were very small.

Estudi de l'estat de Salut autopercebut: Modelització de l'índex d'utilitat EQ-5D mitjançant un model tobit

Objective: Health status measures usually have an asymmetric distribution and present a highpercentage of respondents with the best possible score (ceiling effect), specially when they areassessed in the overall population. Different methods to model this type of variables have beenproposed that take into account the ceiling effect: the tobit models, the Censored Least AbsoluteDeviations (CLAD) models or the two-part models, among others. The objective of this workwas to describe the tobit model, and compare it with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model,that ignores the ceiling effect.Methods: Two different data sets have been used in order to compare both models: a) real datacomming from the European Study of Mental Disorders (ESEMeD), in order to model theEQ5D index, one of the measures of utilities most commonly used for the evaluation of healthstatus; and b) data obtained from simulation. Cross-validation was used to compare thepredicted values of the tobit model and the OLS models. The following estimators werecompared: the percentage of absolute error (R1), the percentage of squared error (R2), the MeanSquared Error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE). Different datasets werecreated for different values of the error variance and different percentages of individuals withceiling effect. The estimations of the coefficients, the percentage of explained variance and theplots of residuals versus predicted values obtained under each model were compared.Results: With regard to the results of the ESEMeD study, the predicted values obtained with theOLS model and those obtained with the tobit models were very similar. The regressioncoefficients of the linear model were consistently smaller than those from the tobit model. In thesimulation study, we observed that when the error variance was small (s=1), the tobit modelpresented unbiased estimations of the coefficients and accurate predicted values, specially whenthe percentage of individuals wiht the highest possible score was small. However, when theerrror variance was greater (s=10 or s=20), the percentage of explained variance for the tobitmodel and the predicted values were more similar to those obtained with an OLS model.Conclusions: The proportion of variability accounted for the models and the percentage ofindividuals with the highest possible score have an important effect in the performance of thetobit model in comparison with the linear model.

What trees tell us: dendrochronological and statistical analysis of the data

Trees are a great bank of data, named sometimes for this reason as the "silentwitnesses" of the past. Due to annual formation of rings, which is normally influenced directly by of climate parameters (generally changes in temperature and moisture or precipitation) and other environmental factors; these changes, occurred in the past, are"written" in the tree "archives" and can be "decoded" in order to interpret what hadhappened before, mainly applied for the past climate reconstruction.Using dendrochronological methods for obtaining samples of Pinus nigra fromthe Catalonian PrePirineous region, the cores of 15 trees with total time spine of about 100 - 250 years were analyzed for the tree ring width (TRW) patterns and had quite high correlation between them (0.71 ¿ 0.84), corresponding to a common behaviour for the environmental changes in their annual growth.After different trials with raw TRW data for standardization in order to take outthe negative exponential growth curve dependency, the best method of doubledetrending (power transformation and smoothing line of 32 years) were selected for obtaining the indexes for further analysis.Analyzing the cross-correlations between obtained tree ring width indexes andclimate data, significant correlations (p<0.05) were observed in some lags, as forexample, annual precipitation in lag -1 (previous year) had negative correlation with TRW growth in the Pallars region. Significant correlation coefficients are between 0.27- 0.51 (with positive or negative signs) for many cases; as for recent (but very short period) climate data of Seu d¿Urgell meteorological station, some significant correlation coefficients were observed, of the order of 0.9.These results confirm the hypothesis of using dendrochronological data as aclimate signal for further analysis, such as reconstruction of climate in the past orprediction in the future for the same locality.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Tc-99m-MAA SPECT-derived tumor-to-normal liver ratios for partition model dosimetry in selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT)

Aim: When planning SIRT using 90Y microspheres, the partition model is used to refine the activity calculated by the body surface area (BSA) method to potentially improve the safety and efficacy of treatment. For this partition model dosimetry, accurate determination of mean tumor-to-normal liver ratio (TNR) is critical since it directly impacts absorbed dose estimates. This work aimed at developing and assessing a reliable methodology for the calculation of 99mTc-MAA SPECT/CT-derived TNR ratios based on phantom studies. Materials and methods: IQ NEMA (6 hot spheres) and Kyoto liver phantoms with different hot/background activity concentration ratios were imaged on a SPECT/CT (GE Infinia Hawkeye 4). For each reconstruction with the IQ phantom, TNR quantification was assessed in terms of relative recovery coefficients (RC) and image noise was evaluated in terms of coefficient of variation (COV) in the filled background. RCs were compared using OSEM with Hann, Butterworth and Gaussian filters, as well as FBP reconstruction algorithms. Regarding OSEM, RCs were assessed by varying different parameters independently, such as the number of iterations (i) and subsets (s) and the cut-off frequency of the filter (fc). The influence of the attenuation and diffusion corrections was also investigated. Furthermore, both 2D-ROIs and 3D-VOIs contouring were compared. For this purpose, dedicated Matlab© routines were developed in-house for automatic 2D-ROI/3D-VOI determination to reduce intra-user and intra-slice variability. Best reconstruction parameters and RCs obtained with the IQ phantom were used to recover corrected TNR in case of the Kyoto phantom for arbitrary hot-lesion size. In addition, we computed TNR volume histograms to better assess uptake heterogeneityResults: The highest RCs were obtained with OSEM (i=2, s=10) coupled with the Butterworth filter (fc=0.8). Indeed, we observed a global 20% RC improvement over other OSEM settings and a 50% increase as compared to the best FBP reconstruction. In any case, both attenuation and diffusion corrections must be applied, thus improving RC while preserving good image noise (COV<10%). Both 2D-ROI and 3D-VOI analysis lead to similar results. Nevertheless, we recommend using 3D-VOI since tumor uptake regions are intrinsically 3D. RC-corrected TNR values lie within 17% around the true value, substantially improving the evaluation of small volume (<15 mL) regions. Conclusions: This study reports the multi-parameter optimization of 99mTc MAA SPECT/CT images reconstruction in planning 90Y dosimetry for SIRT. In phantoms, accurate quantification of TNR was obtained using OSEM coupled with Butterworth and RC correction.

Seismic reflectivity of the sediment-covered seafloor: Effects of velocity gradients and fine-scale layering

Knowledge of the reflectivity of the sediment-covered seabed is of significant importance to marine seismic data acquisition and interpretation as it governs the generation of reverberations in the water layer. In this context pertinent, but largely unresolved, questions concern the importance of the typically very prominent vertical seismic velocity gradients as well as the potential presence and magnitude of anisotropy in soft surficial seabed sediments. To address these issues, we explore the seismic properties of granulometric end-member-type clastic sedimentary seabed models consisting of sand, silt, and clay as well as scale-invariant stochastic layer sequences of these components characterized by realistic vertical gradients of the P- and S-wave velocities. Using effective media theory, we then assess the nature and magnitude of seismic anisotropy associated with these models. Our results indicate that anisotropy is rather benign for P-waves, and that the S-wave velocities in the axial directions differ only slightly. Because of the very high P- to S-wave velocity ratios in the vicinity of the seabed our models nevertheless suggest that S-wave triplications may occur at very small incidence angles. To numerically evaluate the P-wave reflection coefficient of our seabed models, we apply a frequency-slowness technique to the corresponding synthetic seismic wavefields. Comparison with analytical plane-wave reflection coefficients calculated for corresponding isotropic elastic half-space models shows that the differences tend to be most pronounced in the vicinity of the elastic equivalent of the critical angle as well as in the post-critical range. We also find that the presence of intrinsic anisotropy in the clay component of our layered models tends to dramatically reduce the overall magnitude of the P-wave reflection coefficient as well as its variation with incidence angle.

Fluctuations in domain growth: Ginzburg-Landau equations with multiplicative noise

Ginzburg-Landau equations with multiplicative noise are considered, to study the effects of fluctuations in domain growth. The equations are derived from a coarse-grained methodology and expressions for the resulting concentration-dependent diffusion coefficients are proposed. The multiplicative noise gives contributions to the Cahn-Hilliard linear-stability analysis. In particular, it introduces a delay in the domain-growth dynamics.

Hydraulic conductivity and water retention in leptosols-regosols and saprolite derived from sandstone, Brazil

Leptosols and Regosols are soils with a series of restrictions for use, mainly related to the effective depth, which have been poorly studied in Brazil. These soils, when derived from sedimentary rocks should be treated with particular care to avoid environmental damage such as aquifer contamination. The purpose of this study was to verify the behavior of hydraulic conductivity and water retention capacity in profiles of Leptosols and Regosols derived from sandstone of the Caturrita formation in Rio Grande do Sul state. The morphology, particle size distribution, porosity, soil density (Ds), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), basic water infiltration in the field (BI) and water retention were determined in soil and saprolite samples of six soil profiles. High Ds, low macroporosity and high microporosity were observed in the profiles, resulting in a low Ks and BI, even under conditions of sandy texture and a highly fractured saprolite layer. The variation coefficients of data of Ks and BI were high among the studied profiles and between replications of a same profile. Water retention of the studied soils was higher in Cr layers than in the A horizons and the volume of plant-available water greater and variable among A horizons and Cr layers.

Long maximal incremental tests accurately assess aerobic fitness in class II and III obese men.

This study aimed to compare two different maximal incremental tests with different time durations [a maximal incremental ramp test with a short time duration (8-12 min) (STest) and a maximal incremental test with a longer time duration (20-25 min) (LTest)] to investigate whether an LTest accurately assesses aerobic fitness in class II and III obese men. Twenty obese men (BMI≥35 kg.m-2) without secondary pathologies (mean±SE; 36.7±1.9 yr; 41.8±0.7 kg*m-2) completed an STest (warm-up: 40 W; increment: 20 W*min-1) and an LTest [warm-up: 20% of the peak power output (PPO) reached during the STest; increment: 10% PPO every 5 min until 70% PPO was reached or until the respiratory exchange ratio reached 1.0, followed by 15 W.min-1 until exhaustion] on a cycle-ergometer to assess the peak oxygen uptake [Formula: see text] and peak heart rate (HRpeak) of each test. There were no significant differences in [Formula: see text] (STest: 3.1±0.1 L*min-1; LTest: 3.0±0.1 L*min-1) and HRpeak (STest: 174±4 bpm; LTest: 173±4 bpm) between the two tests. Bland-Altman plot analyses showed good agreement and Pearson product-moment and intra-class correlation coefficients showed a strong correlation between [Formula: see text] (r=0.81 for both; p≤0.001) and HRpeak (r=0.95 for both; p≤0.001) during both tests. [Formula: see text] and HRpeak assessments were not compromised by test duration in class II and III obese men. Therefore, we suggest that the LTest is a feasible test that accurately assesses aerobic fitness and may allow for the exercise intensity prescription and individualization that will lead to improved therapeutic approaches in treating obesity and severe obesity.

Kinetics of phosphorus sorption in soils in the state of Paraíba¹

The soil P sorption capacity has been studied for many years, but little attention has been paid to the rate of this process, which is relevant in the planning of phosphate fertilization. The purpose of this experiment was to assess kinetics of P sorption in 12 representative soil profiles of the State of Paraíba (Brazil), select the best data fitting among four equations and relate these coefficients to the soil properties. Samples of 12 soils with wide diversity of physical, chemical and mineralogical properties were agitated in a horizontal shaker, with 10 mmo L-1 CaCl2 solution containing 6 and 60 mg L-1 P, for periods of 5, 15, 30, 45, 60, 90, 120, 420, 720, 1,020, and 1,440 min. After each shaking period, the P concentration in the equilibrium solution was measured and three equations were fitted based on the Freundlich equation and one based on the Elovich equation, to determine which soil had the highest sorption rate (kinetics) and which soil properties correlated to this rate. The kinetics of P sorption in soils with high maximum P adsorption capacity (MPAC) was fast for 30 min at the lower initial P concentration (6 mg L-1). No difference was observed between soils at the higher initial P concentration (60 mg L-1). The P adsorption kinetics were positively correlated with clay content, MPAC and the amount of Al extracted with dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate. The data fitted well to Freundlich-based equations equation, whose coefficients can be used to predict P adsorption rates in soils.

Implications of the variability in soil penetration resistance for statistical analysis

Soil penetration resistance (PR) is a measure of soil compaction closely related to soil structure and plant growth. However, the variability in PR hampers the statistical analyses. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of soil PR on the efficiency of parametric and nonparametric analyses in indentifying significant effects of soil compaction and to classify the coefficient of variation of PR into low, medium, high and very high. On six dates, the PR of a typical dystrophic Red Ultisol under continuous no-tillage for 16 years was measured. Three tillage and/or traffic conditions were established with the application of: (i) no chiseling or additional traffic, (ii) additional compaction, and (iii) chiseling. On each date, the nineteen PR data (measured at every 1.5 cm to a depth of 28.5 cm) were grouped in layers with different thickness. In each layer, the treatment effects were evaluated by variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis analyses in a completely randomized design, and the coefficients of variation of all analyses were classified (low, intermediate, high and very high). The ANOVA performed better in discriminating the compaction effects, but the rejection rate of null hypothesis decreased from 100 to 80 % when the coefficient of variation increased from 15 to 26 %. The values of 15 and 26 % were the thresholds separating the low/intermediate and the high/very high coefficient variation classes of PR in this Ultisol.

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La présente étude est à la fois une évaluation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximité dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - Bâle, Berne, Genève, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximité (community policing) est à la fois une philosophie et une stratégie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvelé entre la police et les communautés locales dans le but de résoudre les problèmes relatifs à la sécurité et à l'ordre public. L'évaluation de processus a analysé des données relatives aux réformes internes de la police qui ont été obtenues par l'intermédiaire d'entretiens semi-structurés avec des administrateurs clés des cinq départements de police, ainsi que dans des documents écrits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'évaluation des impacts, quant à elle, s'est basée sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques policières et des données de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit à partir des données du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'insécurité, à la perception du désordre public et à la satisfaction de la population à l'égard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage régulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines à plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des années 1980. L'évaluation de processus a abouti à un « Calendrier des activités » visant à créer des données de panel permettant de mesurer les progrès réalisés dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité à l'aide d'une grille d'évaluation à six dimensions à des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'évaluation des impacts, effectuée ex post facto, a utilisé un concept de recherche non-expérimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de différents modèles de police de proximité dans des zones comparables à travers les cinq villes étudiées. Les quartiers urbains, délimités par zone de code postal, ont ainsi été regroupés par l'intermédiaire d'une typologie réalisée à l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervisés et non supervisés ont été utilisés sur les données à haute dimensionnalité relatives à la criminalité, à la structure socio-économique et démographique et au cadre bâti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont été utilisées dans le but de réduire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultanément la variance inter-cluster des réponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des forêts d'arbres décisionnels (random forests) a permis à la fois d'évaluer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier élaborée et de sélectionner les variables contextuelles clés afin de construire un modèle parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la méthode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a été utilisée pour équilibrer les échantillons prétest-posttest en termes d'âge, de sexe et de niveau d'éducation des répondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifié dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la différence observée dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les résultats statistiquement significatifs ont été soumis à une analyse de sensibilité (sensitivity analysis) afin d'évaluer leur robustesse face à un biais potentiel dû à des covariables non observées. L'étude relève qu'au cours des quinze dernières années, les cinq services de police ont entamé des réformes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs stratégies opérationnelles et qu'ils ont noué des partenariats stratégiques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximité. La typologie de quartier développée a abouti à une réduction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble suggérer que les méthodes de géocomputation aident à équilibrer les covariables observées et donc à réduire les menaces relatives à la validité interne d'un concept de recherche non-expérimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a révélé que le sentiment d'insécurité a diminué de manière significative pendant la période 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant à l'intérieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces améliorations sont assez robustes face à des biais dus à des covariables inobservées et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximité. L'hypothèse alternative envisageant que les diminutions observées dans le sentiment d'insécurité soient, partiellement, un résultat des interventions policières de proximité semble donc être aussi plausible que l'hypothèse nulle considérant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, même si le concept de recherche non-expérimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas complètement exclure la sélection et la régression à la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Determination of anomalies in supersymmetric theories

We develop an efficient technique to compute anomalies in supersymmetric theories by combining the so-called nonlocal regularization method and superspace techniques. To illustrate the method we apply it to a four-dimensional toy model with potentially anomalous N=1 supersymmetry and prove explicitly that in this model all the candidate supersymmetry anomalies have vanishing coefficients at the one-loop level.