How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

ANA, SA: A risk management approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Incidence of anti-toxoplasma antibodies in women with high-risk pregnancy and habitual abortions

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii, an obligate intracellular parasite. In pregnant women on the worldwide scale, there are seroprevalences from 7% to 51.3% and in women with abnormal pregnancies and abortions the seroprevalences vary from 17.5% to 52.3%. In Mexico, seropositivity has been found to vary from 18.2% to 44.8% in women with abnormal deliveries or abortions. This study's aim was to determine the incidence oflgG and IgM anti-Toxoplasma antibodies in women at the Gineco-Obstetrics Hospital of the Western Medical Center of the Mexican Social Security Institute. Three hundred and fifty women with high-risk pregnancies were studied, and 122 (34.9%) were found to be IgG seropositive and 76 (20.7%) were IgM positive. In one group of women with habitual abortions there were 48 (44.9%) with the preseiwe of IgG antibodies and 33 (33-3%) were IgM seropositive. Seropositivity was analyzed according to age, occupation, socio-economic level, eating raw or poorly cooked meat, and living with cats.

Risk factors associated with taeniasis-cysticercosis in Lagamar, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

An epidemiological survey was carried out in 3,344 people of an urban town in Lagamar, Minas Gerais, Brazil - during 1992-1993, to evaluate the main risk factors related to taeniasis and cysticercosis. A total number of 875 (78.9%) houses were visited and 1080 (32.3%) subjects were clinically examined. Poor sanitary conditions were positively associated with former history of taeniasis or seizures in households (p < 0.05). It was remarkable the positive relationship between taeniasis and seizures when households were questioned and subjects were clinically evaluated (p < 0.05). The relative risk of seizures was 2.3 between households and 1.7 for individuals clinically examined respectively. The breeding of swine nearby and the chronic carriers of taeniasis are determinant factors in the maintenance of the epidemiological link between taeniasis and cysticercosis in endemic areas.

Credit risk of financial institutions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk factors for Leishmania chagasi infection in an urban area of Minas Gerais State

In order to understand the determinants of human infection by Leishmania chagasi in an urban area, a cross-sectional population based study was conducted using molecular and serologic methods to identify infection. Participants were interviewed using a pre-coded questionnaire. Two criteria were tested to identify risk factors: Model 1- including all participants positive in hybridization by Leishmania donovani complex probe; Model 2- including all participants positive for hybridization and at least one serologic test. In Model 1, the variables associated with infection were: ownership of birds, time spent outside house between 6:00-10:00 PM and garbage not collected. In Model 2, the variables associated with infection were: family with knowledge of the vector, garbage not collected, garbage not removed or buried, ownership of birds and eroded areas in the neighborhood. The risk factors identified were associated with household conditions, presence of animals and the likelihood of contact with phlebotomine sandflies.

Development of an integrative approach for the characterization of ecological risk on marine transition ecosystems: the Sado Estuary as a case study

Estuaries and other transitional waters are complex ecosystems critically important as nursery and shelter areas for organisms. Also, humans depend on estuaries for multiple socio-economical activities such as urbanism, tourism, heavy industry, (taking advantage of shipping), fisheries and aquaculture, the development of which led to strong historical pressures, with emphasis on pollution. The degradation of estuarine environmental quality implies ecologic, economic and social prejudice, hence the importance of evaluating environmental quality through the identification of stressors and impacts. The Sado Estuary (SW Portugal) holds the characteristics of industrialized estuaries, which results in multiple adverse impacts. Still, it has recently been considered moderately contaminated. In fact, many studies were conducted in the past few years, albeit scattered due to the absence of true biomonitoring programmes. As such, there is a need to integrate the information, in order to obtain a holistic perspective of the area able to assist management and decision-making. As such, a geographical information system (GIS) was created based on sediment contamination and biomarker data collected from a decade-long time-series of publications. Four impacted and a reference areas were identified, characterized by distinct sediment contamination patterns related to different hot spots and diffuse sources of toxicants. The potential risk of sediment-bound toxicants was determined by contrasting the levels of pollutants with available sediment quality guidelines, followed by their integration through the Sediment Quality guideline Quotient (SQG-Q). The SQG-Q estimates per toxicant or class was then subjected to georreferencing and statistical analyses between the five distinct areas and seasons. Biomarker responses were integrated through the Biomarkers Consistency Indice and georreferenced as well through GIS. Overall, in spite of the multiple biological traits surveyed, the biomarker data (from several organisms) are accordant with sediment contamination. The most impacted areas were the shipyard area and adjacent industrial belt, followed by urban and agricultural grounds. It is evident that the estuary, although globally moderately impacted, is very heterogeneous and affected by a cocktail of contaminants, especially metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Although elements (like copper, zinc and even arsenic) may originate from the geology of the hydrographic basin of the Sado River, the majority of the remaining contaminants results from human activities. The present work revealed that the estuary should be divided into distinct biogeographic units, in order to implement effective measures to safeguard environmental quality.

Tuberculosis incidence and risk factors among patients living with HIV/AIDS in public health service institutions in Brasilia, Federal District

In order to estimate the incidence of and risk factors for developing tuberculosis, the clinical charts of a retrospective cohort of 281 HIV-positive adults, who were notified to the AIDS Program of the Health Department of Brasilia in 1998, were reviewed in 2003. All the patients were treatment-naive regarding antiretroviral therapy at the time of inclusion in the cohort. Twenty-nine patients were identified as having tuberculosis at the start of the study. Thirteen incident tuberculosis cases were identified during the 60 months of follow-up, with an incidence density rate of 1.24/100 person-years. Tuberculosis incidence was highest among patients with baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl who were not using antiretroviral therapy (incidence = 5.47; 95% CI = 2.73 to 10.94). Multivariate analysis showed that baseline CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts < 200 cells/µl (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 5.09; 95% CI = 1.27 to 20.37; p = 0.02) and non-use of antiretroviral therapy (AHR = 12.17; 95% CI = 2.6 to 56.90; p = 0.001) were independently associated with increased risk of tuberculosis.

Mother-child transmission of Chagas disease: could coinfection with human immunodeficiency virus increase the risk?

A study was conducted on all newborns from mothers with Chagas disease who were attended at Hospital Donación F. Santojanni between January 1, 2001, and August 31, 2007. Each child was investigated for the presence of Trypanosoma cruzi parasitemia through direct examination of blood under the microscope using the buffy coat method on three occasions during the first six months of life. Serological tests were then performed. Ninety-four children born to mothers infected with Trypanosoma cruzi were attended over the study period. Three of these children were born to mothers coinfected with the human immunodeficiency virus. Vertical transmission of Chagas disease was diagnosed in 13 children, in all cases by identifying parasitemia. The overall Chagas disease transmission rate was 13.8% (13/94). It was 100% (3/3) among the children born to mothers with HIV infection and 10.9% (10/91) among children born to mothers without HIV [Difference = 0.89; CI95 = 0.82-0.95; p = 0.0021]. We concluded that coinfection with HIV could increase the risk of vertical transmission of Chagas disease.

Determinants of mother-baby relationship evaluated during pregnancy

ABSTRACT Background Mental health promotion is supported by a strong body of knowledge and is a matter of public health with the potential of a large impact on society. Mental health promotion programs should be implemented as soon as possible in life, preferably starting during pregnancy. Programs should focus on malleable determinants, introducing strategies to reduce risk factors or their impact on mother and child, and also on strengthening protective factors to increase resilience. The ambition of early detecting risk situations requires the development and use of tools to assess risk, and the creation of a responsive network of services based in primary health care, especially maternal consultation during pregnancy and the first months of the born child. The number of risk factors and the way they interact and are buffered by protective factors are relevant for the final impact. Maternal-fetal attachment (MFA) is not yet a totally understood and well operationalized concept. Methodological problems limit the comparison of data as many studies used small size samples, had an exploratory character or used different selection criteria and different measures. There is still a lack of studies in high risk populations evaluating the consequences of a weak MFA. Instead, the available studies are not very conclusive, but suggest that social support, anxiety and depression, self-esteem and self-control and sense of coherence are correlated with MFA. MFA is also correlated with health practices during pregnancy, that influence pregnancy and baby outcomes. MFA seems a relevant concept for the future mother baby interaction, but more studies are needed to clarify the concept and its operationalization. Attachment is a strong scientific concept with multiple implications for future child development, personality and relationship with others. Secure attachment is considered an essential basis of good mental health, and promoting mother-baby interaction offers an excellent opportunity to intervention programmes targeted at enhancing mental health and well-being. Understanding the process of attachment and intervening to improve attachment requires a comprehension of more proximal factors, but also a broader approach that assesses the impact of more distal social conditions on attachment and how this social impact is mediated by family functioning and mother-baby interaction. Finally, it is essential to understand how this knowledge could be translated in effective mental health promoting interventions and measures that could reach large populations of pregnant mothers and families. Strengthening emotional availability (EA) seems to be a relevant approach to improve the mother-baby relationship. In this review we have offered evidence suggesting a range of determinants of mother-infant relationship, including age, marital relationship, social disadvantages, migration, parental psychiatric disorders and the situations of abuse or neglect. Based on this theoretical background we constructed a theoretical model that included proximal and distal factors, risk and protective factors, including variables related to the mother, the father, their social support and mother baby interaction from early pregnancy until six months after birth. We selected the Antenatal Psychosocial Health Assessment (ALPHA) for use as an instrument to detect psychosocial risk during pregnancy. Method Ninety two pregnant women were recruited from the Maternal Health Consultation in Primary Health Care (PHC) at Amadora. They had three moments of assessment: at T1 (until 12 weeks of pregnancy) they filed out a questionnaire that included socio-demographic data, ALPHA, Edinburgh post-natal Depression Scale (EDPS), General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) and Sense of Coherence (SOC); at T2 (after the 20th weeks of pregnancy) they answered EDPS, SOC and MFA Scale (MFAS), and finally at T3 (6 months after birth), they repeated EDPS and SOC, and their interaction with their babies was videotaped and later evaluated using EA Scales. A statistical analysis has been done using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, univariate logistic regression and multiple linear regression. Results The study has increased our knowledge on this particular population living in a multicultural, suburb community. It allow us to identify specific groups with a higher level of psychosocial risk, such as single or divorced women, young couples, mothers with a low level of education and those who are depressed or have a low SOC. The hypothesis that psychosocial risk is directly correlated with MFAS and that MFA is directly correlated with EA was not confirmed, neither the correlation between prenatal psychosocial risk and mother-baby EA. The study identified depression as a relevant risk factor in pregnancy and its higher prevalence in single or divorced women, immigrants and in those who have a higher global psychosocial risk. Depressed women have a poor MFA, and a lower structuring capacity and a higher hostility to their babies. In average, depression seems to reduce among pregnant women in the second part of their pregnancy. The children of immigrant mothers show a lower level of responsiveness to their mothers what could be transmitted through depression, as immigrant mothers have a higher risk of depression in the beginning of pregnancy and six months after birth. Young mothers have a low MFA and are more intrusive. Women who have a higher level of education are more sensitive and their babies showed to be more responsive. Women who are or have been submitted to abuse were found to have a higher level of MFA but their babies are less responsive to them. The study highlights the relevance of SOC as a potential protective factor while it is strongly and negatively related with a wide range of risk factors and mental health outcomes especially depression before, during and after pregnancy. Conclusions ALPHA proved to be a valid, feasible and reliable instrument to Primary Health Care (PHC) that can be used as a total sum score. We could not prove the association between psychosocial risk factors and MFA, neither between MFA and EA, or between psychosocial risk and EA. Depression and SOC seems to have a clear and opposite relevance on this process. Pregnancy can be considered as a maturational process and an opportunity to change, where adaptation processes occur, buffering risk, decreasing depression and increasing SOC. Further research is necessary to better understand interactions between variables and also to clarify a better operationalization of MFA. We recommend the use of ALPHA, SOC and EDPS in early pregnancy as a way of identifying more vulnerable women that will require additional interventions and support in order to decrease risk. At political level we recommend the reinforcement of Immigrant integration and the increment of education in women. We recommend more focus in health care and public health in mental health condition and psychosocial risk of specific groups at high risk. In PHC special attention should be paid to pregnant women who are single or divorced, very young, low educated and to immigrant mothers. This study provides the basis for an intervention programme for this population, that aims to reduce broad spectrum risk factors and to promote Mental Health in women who become pregnant. Health and mental health policies should facilitate the implementation of the suggested measures.

Is an increased body mass index associated with a risk of cutaneous leishmaniasis?

All adults (n = 334) living in Brejo do Mutambal, an endemic area for cutaneous leishmaniasis, were included in this study. Contrary to our initial hypothesis, it was observed that men (23.7 ± 3.2 vs. 22.1 ± 2.6 kg/m²) and women (24.1 ± 4.7 vs. 22.5 ± 3.4 kg/m²) with cutaneous leishmaniasis presented higher body mass index than the controls.

Risk factors for physical disability at diagnosis of 19,283 new cases of leprosy

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this study was to evaluate risk factors for physical disability at the moment of leprosy diagnosis. METHODS: This is a retrospective, descriptive and exploratory investigation of 19,283 patients with leprosy, registered in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2000 and 2005. RESULTS: The risk of Grade 2 disability was 16.5-fold higher in patients with lepromatous leprosy, and 12.8-fold higher in patients presenting the borderline form, compared to patients presenting indeterminate leprosy. The occurrence of more than one thickened nerve increased the odds of a patient developing Grade 2 disability, 8.4-fold. Age <15 years, multibacillary leprosy and no formal education presented 7.0, 5.7 and 5.6 odds of developing physical disability, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These factors should be considered as strong prognostic indicators in the development of physical disability at diagnosis.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for canine visceral leishmaniasis in the endemic area of Dias D'Ávila, State of Bahia, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important zoonosis in relation to public health systems. Dogs are the main domestic reservoir. This study aimed to investigate occurrences of canine VL in Dias D'Ávila, State of Bahia, Brazil. METHODS: The prevalence was evaluated by means of clinical and laboratory tests on a population of 312 domestic dogs from 23 localities in this municipality, using indirect immunofluorescence and immunoenzymatic assays. RESULTS: Among the animals examined, 3.2% and 6.7% showed signs of VL, confirmed by indirect immunofluorescence and immunoenzymatic assays, respectively, with a distribution of 29.9% (24 dogs) in the rural zone and 4.9% (288 dogs) in the urban zone (p = 0.001). The clinical evaluation on seropositive dogs showed both asymptomatic animals (2.4%) and symptomatic animals (47.6%), along with other abnormalities (e.g. normocytic and normochromic anemia, with leukocytosis and thrombocytopenia). Observations relating to phenotypic characteristics (e.g. sex, age, breed and hair) did not present statistical significance, although high seropositivity among male, short-haired and mixed-breed dogs was observed. CONCLUSIONS: The findings showed that VL was a predominantly rural zoonosis and that close contact between poultry and domestic dogs significantly increased the risk of canine infection in this region.