Serum anticholinergic activity and postoperative cognitive dysfunction in elderly patients

Background: Cerebral cholinergic transmission plays a key role in cognitive function and anticholinergic drugs are associated with impaired cognitive functions [1]. In the perioperative phase many substances with anticholinergic effects are administered and disturbed cholinergic transmission is a hypothetical cause of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). Serum anticholinergic activity (SAA; pmol/ml) may be measured as a summary marker of anticholinergic activity in an individual patient's blood. We hypothesised that an increase in SAA from preoperatively to one week postoperatively is associated with POCD in elderly patients. Methods: Thirty-two patients aged >65 yrs undergoing elective major surgery under standardized general anaesthesia (thiopental, sevoflurane, fentanyl) were investigated. Cognitive functions were measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively using the extended version of the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease - Neuropsychological Assessment Battery. POCD was defined as a postoperative decline >1 z-score in at least 2 cognitive domains. SAA was measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively at the time of cognitive testing. Results: 50% of the investigated patients developed POCD. There were no statistically significant differences between patients with and without POCD regarding age, education, baseline cognitive function, duration of anaesthesia, SAA preoperatively (median (range) 1.0 (0.3 to 5.0) vs 1.5 (0.4 to 5.0), SAA 7 days postoperatively (median (range) 1.3 (0.1 to 7.0) vs 1.4 (0.6 to 5.5) or changes in SAA (median (range) 0.1 (-1.6 to 2.2) vs 0.2 (-1.4 to 2.8). The variability of SAA in individual patients was considerable and marked changes in SAA between the two examinations were observed in some patients. However, there was no significant relationship between changes in SAA and changes in cognitive function. Conclusion: In this preliminary analysis of a small group of patients, changes in SAA in the perioperative phase were highly variable. SAA was not associated with POCD suggesting that POCD is not simply caused by anticholinergic medications administered in the perioperative phase. A further analysis of a larger group of patients is in progress.

Primary isolated aortic valve surgery in octogenarians.

We reviewed our surgery registry, to identify predictive risk factors for operative results, and to analyse the long-term survival outcome in octogenarians operated for primary isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). A total of 124 consecutive octogenarians underwent open AVR from January 1990 to December 2005. Combined procedures and redo surgery were excluded. Selected variables were studied as risk factors for hospital mortality and early neurological events. A follow-up (FU; mean FU time: 77 months) was obtained (90% complete), and Kaplan-Meier plots were used to determine survival rates. The mean age was 82+/-2.2 (range: 80-90 years; 63% females). Of the group, four patients (3%) required urgent procedures, 10 (8%) had a previous myocardial infarction, six (5%) had a previous coronary angioplasty and stenting, 13 patients (10%) suffered from angina and 59 (48%) were in the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III-IV. We identified 114 (92%) degenerative stenosis, six (5%) post-rheumatic stenosis and four (3%) active endocarditis. The predicted mortality calculated by logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) was 12.6+/-5.7%, and the observed hospital mortality was 5.6%. Causes of death included severe cardiac failure (four patients), multi-organ failure (two) and sepsis (one). Complications were transitory neurological events in three patients (2%), short-term haemodialysis in three (2%), atrial fibrillation in 60 (48%) and six patients were re-operated for bleeding. Atrio-ventricular block, myocardial infarction or permanent stroke was not detected. The age at surgery and the postoperative renal failure were predictors for hospital mortality (p value <0.05), whereas we did not find predictors for neurological events. The mean FU time was 77 months (6.5 years) and the mean age of surviving patients was 87+/-4 years (81-95 years). The actuarial survival estimates at 5 and 10 years were 88% and 50%, respectively. Our experience shows good short-term results after primary isolated standard AVR in patients more than 80 years of age. The FU suggests that aortic valve surgery in octogenarians guarantees satisfactory long-term survival rates and a good quality of life, free from cardiac re-operations. In the era of catheter-based aortic valve implantation, open-heart surgery for AVR remains the standard of care for healthy octogenarians.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

La biblioteca recombinada: portals i persones

Aquest article explora el disseny i l'ús dels portals en un entorn bibliotecari. Tracta les motivacions per construir portals, així com l'estructura i la tipologia d'aquests. A més, examina l'entorn de l'usuari en què es desenvolupen aquests portals. També argumenta que aporten serveis útils d'integració i presentació, però que s'han de considerar com a component d'un conjunt de serveis més ampli que la biblioteca està construint per tal d'introduir aquests recursos útils als usuaris. Així mateix, considera breument els serveis que els portals ofereixen: consulta distribuïda o metacerca, personalització, demandes, resolució OpenURL, avisos, etc. També considera l'emergent necessitat de serveis de directori o de registre per a coses com la descripció de col·leccions i serveis, dades de drets i polítiques, etc. Tracta l'impacte dels serveis web i el canvi en els models d'investigació i aprenentatge en relació al subministrament i ús d'informació en xarxa. Finalment, considera els serveis bibliotecaris com a part d'un entorn de sistemes, cada vegada més ric, que inclou els sistemes de gestió d'aprenentatge i de programari educatiu, portals de campus, serveis compartits com l'autenticació, i altres sistemes i serveis.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Strokes restricted to the insular cortex

Résumé: L'objectif de l'étude est de caractériser la manifestation clinique d'une atteinte vasculaire cérébrale ischémique aiguë limitée au cortex insulaire, région intrigante et méconnue du cerveau humain. Dans la pratique clinique, une atteinte vasculaire aiguë limitée à l'insula, sans compromission d'autres régions cérébrales, est exceptionnelle et sa manifestation clinique neurologique est souvent non reconnue. L'étude est focalisée sur quatre patients, inscrits dans le Lausanne Stroke Registry, présentant une nouvelle atteinte vasculaire cérébrale avec une lésion unique purement limitée au cortex insulaire, objectivée à l'aide de la résonance magnétique (IRM). L'étude a mis en évidence cinq manifestations cliniques principales : 1) Troubles de la sensibilité corporelle sont révélé chez trois patients avec une atteinte insulaire postérieure (deux avec un syndrome pseudothalamique, un avec un déficit à distribution partielle). 2) Un patient avec une lésion insulaire postérieure gauche présent des troubles du goût. 3) Un syndrome pseudovestibulaire avec vertiges non rotatoires, instabilité à la marche sans nystagmus, est mis en évidence chez trois patients avec une atteinte ischémique insulaire postérieure. 4) Un patient avec atteinte de l'insula postérieure droite présente des épisodes d'hypertension artérielle d'origine cryptique. 5) Des troubles neuropsychologiques tels qu'aphasie et dysarthrie sont détectés chez les patients avec une atteinte insulaire postérieure gauche, un épisode de somatoparaphrénie est rapporté avec une atteinte insulaire postérieure droite. En conclusion, les atteintes vasculaires cérébrales ischémiques aiguës limitées au cortex insulaire postérieur peuvent se manifester principalement avec un tableau clinique caractérisé par un syndrome pseudothalamique associé à une symptomatologie pseudovertigineuse. Les lésions insulaires postérieures peuvent se manifester avec une dysarthrie et des troubles du goût, une aphasie (gauche), une somatoparaphrénie et une dysfonction hypertensive (droite). L'étude n'a pas mis en évidence de dysphagie, reportée dans les atteintes insulaires antérieures. Abstract: Objective: To characterize clinically acute insular strokes from four patients with, a first ever acute stroke restricted to the insula on MRI. Methods: The authors studied the clinical presentation of four patients with a first ever acute stroke restricted to the insula on MRI. Results: The authors found five main groups of clinical presentations: 1) somatosensory deficits in three patients with posterior insular stroke (two with a transient pseudothalamic sensory syndrome, one with partial distribution); 2) gustatory disorder in a patient with left posterior insular infarct; 3) vestibular-like syndrome, with dizziness, gait instability, and tendency to fall, but no nystagmus, in three patients with posterior insular strokes; 4) cardiovascular disturbances, consisting of hypertensive episodes in a patient with a right posterior insular infarct; and 5) neuropsychological disorders, including aphasia (left posterior insula), dysarthria, and transient somatoparaphrenia (right posterior insula). Conclusion: Strokes restricted to the posterior insula may present with pseudothalamic sensory and vestibular-like syndromes as prominent clinical manifestations, but also dysarthria and aphasia (in left lesions), somatoparaphrenia (right lesions) and gustatory dysfunction and blood pressure with hypertensive episodes in right lesions; we did not find acute dysphagia reported in anterior, insular strokes.

Evolució del paisatge de l'Horta de Lleida (1956/57-2003): transformació d'un paisatge de secà a regadiu

Els paisatges agraris al llarg del temps s’han transformat i han evolucionat segons les necessitats de la societat d’aquell moment. L’aigua ha estat el principal element transformador en l’agricultura del segle XX, i el cas de l’horta de Lleida, és un clar exemple de com l’aigua ha desenvolupat una agricultura que poc a poc s’ha caracteritzat per tenir majoritàriament cultius de regadiu, tot i ser una de les zones més àrides i amb menys precipitacions de Catalunya, a diferència de les zones de secà, que han anat desapareixen. Quantificar i analitzar els canvis que influeixen en la dinàmica del territori, han estat possibles a partir de l’estudi de fonts documentals històriques, tant escrites com gràfiques, com són els cadastres de rústica, les imatges aèries i els ortofotomapes. Mitjançant aquest valuós recurs històric s’ha pogut detectar i analitzar els principals canvis en els usos del sòl esdevinguts durant el període de 1956 a 2003 en determinades zones de l’horta de Lleida, a més ha servit per estimar les repercussions en el paisatge del consum d’aigua.

Outcome and Experience from the Swiss Mammography Screening Pilot Programmes

BACKGROUND:The Swiss breast cancer screening pilot programme was conducted in 3 districts of theFrench-speaking canton of Vaud (ca. 300,000 resident women) between October 1993 and January 1999.Women aged 50 to 69 were invited by mail every 2 years for a free of charge screening mammography (doubleview, multiple reading). This first ever-organised cancer screening programme in Switzerland showed thefeasibility and acceptability of this kind of public health intervention in the liberal Swiss healthcare system, whichwas the main objective of the pilot programme. This mammographic screening programme was extended to thewhole canton in 1999, and contributed to the implementation of similar programmes in 2 neighbouring cantons. OBJECTIVE:To appraise the use, the quality and the effectiveness of the Swiss screening pilot programme. METHODS:About 15,000 women (aged 50-69) were enrolled. Logistic regression analyses were performedseparately to identify determinants of initial and subsequent attendance. Standard indicators of quality,effectiveness and impact of the programme were assessed and compared with European recommendations. Tothis intent, linkage with data from the Vaud Cancer Registry was performed. RESULTS:About half the target population was screened at least once during the pilot trial. Participation washigher among Swiss than foreigners, among widowed or married women than among single, divorced or separatedones. Attendance also increased with age and decreasing distance between residence and the dedicatedscreening centre. Apart from Swiss citizenship, socio-demographic factors were not associated with reattendance.Intensity of prior recruitment, outcome of previous screening test (positive vs. negative) and indicators of women'shealth behaviour (time of last mammography prior to initial screen, smoking status) were the main determinants ofreattendance. Programme performance and quality indicators were, overall, in line with European Guidelines. Theywere overall more favourable among 60-69 than 50-59 year-olds and improved over time. CONCLUSION:The objectives of the pilot programme were met. Even if participation should increase in order toreach European standards, performance indicators overall met quality requirements. Ways to improve screeninguse, quality and effectiveness were devised and taken into account for the generalisation of the programme.

An empirical analysis of wealth taxation: equity Vs.tax compliance

Capital taxation is currently under debate, basically due to problems of administrative control and proper assessment of the levied assets. We analyze both problems focusing on a capital tax, the annual wealth tax (WT), which is only applied in five OECD countries, being Spain one of them. We concentrate our analysis on top 1% adult population, which permits us to describe the evolution of wealth concentration in Spain along 1983-2001. On average top 1% holds about 18% of total wealth, which rises to 19% when tax incompliance and under-assessment is corrected for housing, the main asset. The evolution suggests wealth concentration has risen. Regarding WT, we analyze whether it helps to reduce wealth inequality or, on the contrary, it reinforces vertical inequity (due to especial concessions) and horizontal inequity (due to the de iure and to de facto different treatment of assets). We analyze in detail housing and equity shares. By means of a time series analysis, we relate the reported values with reasonable price indicators and proxies of the propensity to save. We infer net tax compliance is extremely low, which includes both what we commonly understand by (gross) tax compliance and the degree of under-assessment due to fiscal legislation (for housing). That is especially true for housing, whose level of net tax compliance is well below 50%. Hence, we corroborate the difficulties in taxing capital, and so cast doubts on the current role of the WT in Spain in reducing wealth inequality.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 1)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.

Can a Lucas model with habit generate realistic conditional volatility in exchange rate returns?

In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.

On the Relationship between Market Power and Bank Risk Taking

We analyse risk-taking behaviour of banks in the context of spatial competition. Banks mobilise unsecured deposits by offering deposit rates, which they invest either in a prudent or a gambling asset. Limited liability along with high return of a successful gamble induce moral hazard at the bank level. We show that when the market power is low, banks invest in the gambling asset. On the other hand, for sufficiently high levels of market power, all banks choose the prudent asset to invest in. We further show that a merger of two neighboring banks increases the likelihood of prudent behaviour. Finally, introduction of a deposit insurance scheme exacerbates banks’ moral hazard problem.

A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria.