The Comovement between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Instruments during the Post-War Period in the U.S.

This paper empirically studies the dynamic relationship between monetary and fiscal policies by analyzing the comovements between the Fed funds rate and the primary deficit/output ratio. Simple economic thinking establishes that a negative correlation between Fed rate and deficit arises whenever the two policy authorities share a common stabilization objective. However, when budget balancing concerns lead to a drastic deficit reduction the Fed may reduce the Fed rate in order to smooth the impact of fiscal policy, which results in a positive correlation between these two policy instruments. The empirical results show (i) a significant negative comovement between Fed rate and deficit and (ii) that deficit and output gap Granger-cause the Fed funds rate during the post-Volcker era, but the opposite is not true.

Dependência de trajetória nos incentivos fiscais: fragmentação do empresariado na reforma tributária

Desde a promulgação da Constituição de 1988, todos os governos têm buscado realizar a reforma tributária. Há aparente consenso de que essa reforma precisa ser feita. No entanto, os insucessos nas propostas submetidas ao Congresso Nacional têm sido recorrentes. Essa dissertação busca explicar esse aparente insucesso a partir da análise evolutiva histórica de cinco tipos de incentivo fiscal: 1) regional (Sudam, Sudene e Zona Franca de Manaus); 2) guerra fiscal do ICMS; 3) exportação; 4) tributação simplificada (em especial o Simples); e 5) desenvolvimento econômico. O argumento central da pesquisa é o de que a política tributária desenvolvimentista e extrativa, adotada historicamente pelo Estado brasileiro e pautada pela concessão de incentivos fiscais, envolve interesses difíceis de serem revertidos - com características de dependência de trajetória -, que têm condicionado o comportamento do ator fundamental para o desenlace da reforma tributária - o empresariado -, o qual tem atuado de forma fragmentada e na busca por rendas, em vez de atuar de forma concertada buscando o objetivo coletivo pressuposto em uma reforma tributária. A pesquisa evidenciou ter havido uma dinâmica e relevante evolução do sistema tributário no período recente, vinculada em grande medida ao conjunto de incentivos fiscais que foram objeto de análise, o que afasta a hipótese de eventual paralisia decisória e relativizam as hipóteses de pontos de veto e de impasse entre interesses federativos como variáveis explicativas para o insucesso da reforma tributária.

Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

The changing behaviour of the term structure of post-war US

Using U.S. interest rate data covering the period 1950:1-1992:7, this paper tests the rational expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. We show evidence that the rational expectations model of the term structure is supported by the data during the seventies and a period lasting from the mid-eighties to the end of the sample. However, during the …fties, sixties and a period that covers most of the Volcker’s office term (from September 1979 to April 1986) the term structure model is rejected by the data. Moreover, wefind evidence of regime changes in the short-term rate process and the term structure of interest rates. These regime switches roughly coincide with changes in the Federal Reserve chairman. The switches in monetary policy taking place when the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve changes therefore seem to play an important role in characterizing the term structure of interest rates.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

O Tratado de Lisboa e os avanços democráticos na União Europeia

Descreve as instituições e os mecanismos que ao longo de mais de seis décadas foram sendo criados e aperfeiçoados com o objetivo de desenvolver a comunidade dos países europeus nos aspectos políticos, sociais e econômicos. A integração europeia foi se aperfeiçoando ao longo do tempo, mas, seus dirigentes, sempre tiveram a preocupação de fazer com que esse processo fosse o mais democrático possível. O Tratado de Lisboa, o mais recente na história desta associação de ideias e interesses, teve a preocupação de aperfeiçoar os mecanismos de integração no sentido da democracia, aspecto explorado neste trabalho.

ICSF guide book: understanding the Work in Fishing Convention, 2007

This guidebook attempts to provide a quick overview of the Work in Fishing Convention, 2007, which was adopted in Geneva, Switzerland, in June 2007 at the 96th International Labour Conference (ILC) of the International Labour Organization (ILO). It does not purport to provide interpretation of any provisions of the Convention and should not in any way be treated as a substitute for the actual provisions it contains. This guidebook is intended mainly to help those unfamiliar with the Convention and the working of the ILO and the ILC, gain some understanding of the relevant issues. In particular, it is hoped that the guidebook will aid fish workers and their organizations understand the possible benefits and implications of the Convention for artisanal and small-scale fisheries in developing countries.