Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Systemic root signalling in a belowground, volatile-mediated tritrophic interaction

Plants attacked by leaf herbivores release volatile organic compounds (VOCs) both locally from the wounded site and systemically from non-attacked tissues. These volatiles serve as attractants for predators and parasitoids. This phenomenon is well described for plant leaves, but systemic induction of VOCs in the roots has remained unstudied. We assessed the spatial and temporal activation of the synthesis and release of (E)-β-caryophyllene (EβC) in maize roots upon feeding by larvae of Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, as well as the importance of systemically produced EβC for the attraction of the entomopathogenic nematode Heterorhabditis megidis. The production of EβC was found to be significantly stronger at the site of attack than in non-attacked tissues. A weak, but significant, increase in transcriptional activity of the EβC synthase gene tps23 and a corresponding increase in EβC content were observed in the roots above the feeding site and in adjacent roots, demonstrating for the first time that herbivory triggers systemic production of a volatile within root systems. In belowground olfactometers, the nematodes were significantly more attracted towards local feeding sites than systemically induced roots. The possible advantages and disadvantages of systemic volatile signalling in roots are discussed.

Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Herbivore intoxication as a potential primary function of an inducible volatile plant signal

Plants release herbivore-induced volatiles (HIPVs), which can be used as cues by plants, herbivores and natural enemies. Theory predicts that HIPVs may initially have evolved because of their direct benefits for the emitter and were subsequently adopted as infochemicals. Here, we investigated the potential direct benefits of indole, a major HIPV constituent of many plant species and a key defence priming signal in maize. We used indole-deficient maize mutants and synthetic indole at physiologically relevant doses to document the impact of the volatile on the generalist herbivore Spodoptera littoralis. Our experiments demonstrate that indole directly decreases food consumption, plant damage and survival of S. littoralis caterpillars. Surprisingly, exposure to volatile indole increased caterpillar growth. Furthermore, we show that S. littoralis caterpillars and adults consistently avoid indole-producing plants in olfactometer experiments, feeding assays and oviposition trials. Synthesis. Together, these results provide a potential evolutionary trajectory by which the release of a HIPV as a direct defence precedes its use as a cue by herbivores and an alert signal by plants. Furthermore, our experiments show that the effects of a plant secondary metabolite on weight gain and food consumption can diverge in a counterintuitive manner, which implies that larval growth can be a poor proxy for herbivore fitness and plant resistance.

Pits formation from volatile outgassing on 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

We investigate the thermal evolution of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's subsurface in the Seth_01 region, where active pits have been observed by the ESA/Rosetta mission. Our simulations show that clathrate destabilization and amorphous ice crystallization can occur at depths corresponding to those of the observed pits in a timescale shorter than 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's lifetime in the comet's activity zone in the inner solar system. Sublimation of crystalline ice down to such depths is possible only in the absence of a dust mantle, which requires the presence of dust grains in the matrix small enough to be dragged out by gas from the pores. Our results are consistent with both pits formation via sinkholes or subsequent to outbursts, the dominant process depending on the status of the subsurface porosity. A sealed dust mantle would favor episodic and disruptive outgassing as a result of increasing gas pressure in the pores, while high porosity should allow the formation of large voids in the subsurface due to the continuous escape of volatiles. We finally conclude that the subsurface of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is not uniform at a spatial scale of similar to 100-200 m.

SAMPLING METHODOLOGY FOR AIRBORNE SEMIVOLATILE ORGANIC POLLUTANTS USING POLYURETHANE FOAMS (COLLECTION, PESTICIDES, VOLATILE)

Indoor and ambient air organic pollutants have been gaining attention because they have been measured at levels with possible health effects. Studies have shown that most airborne polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), pesticides and many polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are present in the free vapor state. The purpose of this research was to extend recent investigative work with polyurethane foam (PUF) as a collection medium for semivolatile compounds. Open-porous flexible PUFs with different chemical makeup and physical properties were evaluated as to their collection affinities/efficiencies for various classes of compounds and the degree of sample recovery. Filtered air samples were pulled through plugs of PUF spiked with various semivolatiles under different simulated environmental conditions (temperature and humidity), and sampling parameters (flow rate and sample volume) in order to measure their effects on sample breakthrough volume (V(,B)). PUF was also evaluated in the passive mode using organo-phosphorus pesticides. Another major goal was to improve the overall analytical methodology; PUF is inexpensive, easy to handle in the field and has excellent airflow characteristics (low pressure drop). It was confirmed that the PUF collection apparatus behaves as if it were a gas-solid chromatographic system, in that, (V(,B)) was related to temperature and sample volume. Breakthrough volumes were essentially the same using both polyether and polyester type PUF. Also, little change was observed in the V(,B)s after coating PUF with common chromatographic liquid phases. Open cell (reticulated) foams gave better recoveries than closed cell foams. There was a slight increase in (V(,B)) with an increase in the number of cells/pores per inch. The high-density polyester PUF was found to be an excellent passive and active collection adsorbent. Good recoveries could be obtained using just solvent elution. A gas chromatograph equipped with a photoionization detector gave excellent sensitivities and selectivities for the various classes of compounds investigated. ^

Emissions Control and the Regulation of Product Markets: The Case of Automobiles

The paper investigates alternative policies to regulate emissions from polluting product markets, specifically considering the case of the automobiles market. The two policies we consider are: a quota that limits the quantity produced of the polluting model and a more flexible average efficiency standard that requires a minimum energy efficiency across all models produced by a firm, similar to the US Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards. We use a duopoly model of vertical differentiation where firms produce both an economy (i.e., low polluting) version and a luxury (i.e., high polluting) version of a given product. We show that while a quota can raise firm profit over a certain range, CAFE always reduces firm profit relative to the pre-regulation. We also show that while the quota reduces emissions, it is possible that emissions increase under CAFE. The optimal policy choice will depend on the magnitude of unit damages. We show that when unit damages are sufficiently high, the quota policy is more efficient than the average efficiency standard. This suggests that instead of tightening CAFE to limit damages from emissions, policy makers can shift to a quota policy which is both welfare enhancing and more profitable for firms.

Chronic volatile substance abuse among the adult Kickapoo traditional tribe of Texas: Disease and disability profiles, neuropsychosocial consequences, and social implications for treatment

The purpose of this study, based on secondary data from attendees at a substance abuse clinic for the Kickapoo Healing Grounds in Eagle Pass, Texas, is two fold: (1) to elucidate neuro-behavioral performance of volatile substance abusers in the Kickapoo tribe and (2) to determine factors associated with their treatment completion and rehabilitation as measured by their employment at follow-up. Volatile substance abuse (VSA) is associated with a host of neurological manifestations, and secondary prevention or clinical treatment and rehabilitation remains the mainstay of control efforts. Very little is known about VSA in general, and especially among Native American populations. It is anticipated that the results will help determine and assist other tribes and non-tribal substance abuse centers with treatment planning for volatile substance abusers among Native American populations. ^

Industrial benzene emissions in Houston: Legal barriers to reducing a public health threat

Decades of research show that environmental exposure to the chemical benzene is associated with severe carcinogenic, hematoxic and genotoxic effects on the human body. As such, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has designated the chemical as a Hazardous Air Pollutant and prescribed benzene air concentration guidelines that provide cities with an ideal ambient level to protect human health. However, in Houston, Texas, a city home to the top industrial benzene emitters in the US who undoubtedly contribute greatly to the potentially unsafe levels of ambient benzene, regulations beyond the EPA’s unenforceable guidelines are critical to protecting public health. Despite this, the EPA has failed to establish National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for benzene. States are thus left to regulate air benzene levels on their own; in the case of Texas, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and state legislature have failed to proactively develop legally enforceable policies to reduce major source benzene emissions. This inaction continues to exacerbate a public health problem, which may only be solved through a legal framework that restricts preventable benzene emissions to protect human health and holds industrial companies accountable for violations of such regulations and standards. This analysis explores legal barriers that the City of Houston and other relevant agencies currently face in their attempt to demand and bring about such change. ^

AN INVESTIGATION OF VOLATILE ORGANIC AIR CONTAMINANTS IN THE INDOOR MANUFACTURED HOUSING ENVIRONMENT (TEXAS)

Manufactured housing has been found to have substantial levels of formaldehyde in the indoor air. Because mobile homes are more affordable than conventional housing, there has been a large increase in their use in the U.S. This increase in mobile home use has been substantial in the sunbelt regions such as Texas, where high temperatures and humidities may enhance out-gassing of formaldehyde and other volatile organic compounds from construction and furnishing materials and increase any potential health hazards.^ The influences of environmental, architectural and temporal factors on the presence of indoor formaldehyde and other organic compounds were investigated in conjunction with the Texas Indoor Air Quality Study of manufactured housing. A matched pair of mobile homes, one with electric heating and cooking utilities and the other with propane gas utilities, were used for a series of controlled experiments over a fourteen month period from October, 1982 through November, 1983.^ Over this fourteen month period formaldehyde levels decreased approximately 33%. Daily fluctuations of 20% to 40% were observed even with a constant indoor temperature. An increase in indoor temperature of 8(DEGREES)C doubled the measured formaldehyde concentration. Opening windows resulted in decreases of indoor formaldehyde levels of up to 50%. Studies of the impact of propane as a cooking source showed no increase in formaldehyde levels with stove use.^ The presence and concentration of selected volatile organic compounds is influenced greatest by occupancy. Occupants continually open and close windows and doors, vary the operation and settings (temperature) of air control systems, and vary in their selection of furnishings and use of consumer products, which may act as sources of indoor air contaminants. ^

DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF SHORT-TERM MUTAGENICITY AND CYTOTOXICITY BIOASSAYS FOR INTEGRATED HEALTH ASSESSMENT STUDIES OF COAL FLY ASH EMISSIONS

Two respirable coal fly ash samples ((LESSTHEQ) 3(mu)m), one from a pressurized fluidized-bed combustion miniplant and one from a conventional combustion power plant, were investigated for physical properties, chemical composition and biological activity. Electron microscopy illustrated irregularity in fluidized-bed combustion fly ash and sphericity in conventional combustion fly ash. Elemental analysis of these samples showed differences in trace elements. Both fly ash samples were toxic in rabbit alveolar macrophage and Chinese hamster ovary cell systems in vitro. The macrophages were more sensitive to toxicity of fly ash than the ovary cells. For measuring the cytotoxicity of fly ash, the most sensitive parameters were adenosine triphosphate in the alveolar macrophage system and viability index in the hamster ovary system. Intact fluidized-bed combustion fly-ash particles showed mutagenicity only in strains TA98 and TA1538 without metabolic activation in the Ames Salmonella assay. No mutagenicity was detected in bioassay of conventional combustion fly ash particles. Solvent extraction yielded more mass from fluidized-bed combustion fly ash than from conventional combustion fly ash. The extracts of fluidized-bed combustion fly ash showed higher mutagenic activity than conventional combustion fly ash. These samples contained direct-acting, frameshift mutagens.^ Fly ash samples collected from the same fluidized-bed source by cyclones, a fabric filter, and a electrostatic precipitator at various temperatures were compared for particle size, toxicity, and mutagenicity. Results demonstrated that the biological activity of coal fly ash were affected by the collection site, device, and temperature.^ Coal fly ash vapor-coated with 1-nitropyrene was developed as a model system to study the bioavailability and recovery of nitroaromatic compounds in fly ash. The effects of vapor deposition on toxicity and mutagenicity of fly ash were examined. The nitropyrene coating did not significantly alter the ash's cytotoxicity. Nitropyrene was bioavailable in the biological media, and a significant percentage was not recovered after the coated fly ash was cultured with alveolar macrophages. 1-Nitropyrene loss increased as the number of macrophages was increased, suggesting that the macrophages are capable of metabolizing or binding 1-nitropyrene present in coal fly ash. ^

An assessment of the relative influence of a vapor recovery system in reducing occupational exposure to volatile organic compounds in high performance liquid chromatography

Occupational exposures to organic solvents, specifically acetonitrile and methanol, have the potential to cause serious long-term health effects. In the laboratory, these solvents are used extensively in protocols involving the use of high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Operators of HPLC equipment may be potentially exposed to these organic solvents when local exhaust ventilation is not employed properly or is not available, which can be the case in many settings. The objective of this research was to characterize the various sites of vapor release in the HPLC process and then to determine the relative influence of a novel vapor recovery system on the overall exposure to laboratory personnel. The effectiveness of steps to reduce environmental solvent vapor concentrations was assessed by measuring exposure levels of acetonitrile and methanol before and after installation of the vapor recovery system. With respect to acetonitrile, the concentration was not statistically significant with p=0.938; moreover, exposure after the intervention was actually higher than prior to intervention. With respect to methanol, the concentration was not statistically significant with p=0.278. This indicates that the exposure to methanol after the intervention was not statistically significantly higher or lower than prior to intervention. Thus, installation of the vapor recovery device did not result in statistically significant reduction in exposures in the settings encountered, and acetonitrile actually increased significantly.^

Pilot study assessment of indoor air quality in two dental settings: Particulate matter and volatile organic compounds

Objective: To assess the indoor environment of two different types of dental practices regarding VOCs, PM2.5, and ultrafine particulate concentrations and examine the relationship between specific dental activities and contaminant levels. Method: The indoor environments of two selected dental settings (private practice and community health center) will were assessed in regards to VOCs, PM 2.5, and ultrafine particulate concentrations, as well as other indoor air quality parameters (CO2, CO, temperature, and relative humidity). The sampling duration was four working days for each dental practice. Continuous monitoring and integrated sampling methods were used and number of occupants, frequency, type, and duration of dental procedures or activities recorded. Measurements were compared to indoor air quality standards and guidelines. Results: The private practice had higher CO2, CO, and most VOC concentrations than the community health center, but the community health center had higher PM2.5 and ultrafine PM concentrations. Concentrations of p-dichlorobenzene and PM2.5 exceeded some guidelines. Outdoor concentrations greatly influenced the indoor concentration. There were no significant differences in contaminant levels between the operatory and general area. Indoor concentrations during the working period were not always consistently higher than during the nonworking period. Peaks in particulate matter concentration occurred during root canal and composite procedures.^