Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Augmented state Kalman filtering for AUV navigation

Addresses the problem of estimating the motion of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), while it constructs a visual map ("mosaic" image) of the ocean floor. The vehicle is equipped with a down-looking camera which is used to compute its motion with respect to the seafloor. As the mosaic increases in size, a systematic bias is introduced in the alignment of the images which form the mosaic. Therefore, this accumulative error produces a drift in the estimation of the position of the vehicle. When the arbitrary trajectory of the AUV crosses over itself, it is possible to reduce this propagation of image alignment errors within the mosaic. A Kalman filter with augmented state is proposed to optimally estimate both the visual map and the vehicle position

Constitution, Diversification and Normalisation of a Health Problem: Organising the Fight against AIDS in Switzerland (1984-2005)

The article traces the formation, diversification and normalization of the AIDS cause in Switzerland. Particular emphasis is placed on interactions between the medical field, public authorities and associative space, the latter being understood as the place where individual and collective actors compete to define the cause. The authors argue that the major phases in the structuring of the struggle, the pace of state intervention and the creation of a multi-organizational field, can only be understood if one adopts a 'configurational perspective' attentive to the manner in which, in a given context and under the effect of particular constraints, key actors strategically interact and contribute to transforming their environment and their chances of reaching their goals. This approach takes into account the changing socio-biological characteristics of those who have committed themselves to the cause. In turn, internal movement divisions about how to respond to the epidemic as well as the changing perceptions of the disease have modified the opportunities for commitment, encouraging certain individual kinds of people and excluding others.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

A hybrid algorithm combining metaheuristic with Monte Carlo simulation for solving the Stochastic Flow Shop problem

In this paper, a hybrid simulation-based algorithm is proposed for the StochasticFlow Shop Problem. The main idea of the methodology is to transform the stochastic problem into a deterministic problem and then apply simulation to the latter. In order to achieve this goal, we rely on Monte Carlo Simulation and an adapted version of a deterministic heuristic. This approach aims to provide flexibility and simplicity due to the fact that it is not constrained by any previous assumption and relies in well-tested heuristics.

Enhancing Motorcycle Conspicuity Awareness in Iowa, 2010

Previous studies in the United States and internationally suggest that low motorcycle conspicuity, or the inability of the motorcyclist to be seen by other road users, is thought to be an important factor associated with risk of motorcycle crashes. However, there has been limited research on motorcycle conspicuity in the United States in the past two decades, while at the same time; there has been a renewed interest from states in increasing motorcycle conspicuity and motorist awareness. As such, this research revisits the motorcycle conspicuity problem by analysis of helmet-use and motorcycle crash data. First, this study reviews previous studies on motorcycle conspicuity with a focus on the effectiveness of proposed measures for enhancing motorcycle conspicuity. The major trends in motorcycle helmet use by time of day and road type for motorcyclists, as indicated from three roadside observational roadside surveys in Iowa, are also discussed. Then, using motorcycle crash data for Iowa from 2001 to 2008, this research compares single-and two-vehicle motorcycle crashes and examines the distribution of conspicuity related factors in light and dark conditions in two-vehicle crashes that could potentially relate to a collision between a motorcycle and another vehicle. The limitations of examining motorcycle conspicuity by analysis of crash data are also discussed. Finally, this report outlines recommendations based on the key findings of the study.

Highway Maintenance Concept Vehicle Final Report: Phase Three, 2001

This report documents Phase III of a four-phase project. The goals of the project are to study the feasibility of using advanced technology from other industries to improve he efficiency and safety of winter highway maintenance vehicle operations, and to provide travelers with the level of service defined by policy during the winter season at the least cost to the taxpayers. The results of the first phase of the research were documented in the Concept Highway Maintenance Vehicle Final Report: Phase One dated April 1997, which describes the desirable functions of a concept maintenance vehicle and evaluates its feasibility. Phase I concluded by establishing the technologies that would be assembled and tested on the prototype vehicles in Phase II. The primary goals of phase II were to install the selected technologies on the prototype winter maintenance vehicles and to conduct proof of concept in advance of field evaluations planned for Phase III. This Phase III final report documents the work completed since the end of Phase II. During this time period, the Phase III work plan was completed and the redesigned friction meter was field tested. A vendor meeting was held to discuss future private sector participation and the new design for the Iowa vehicle. In addition, weather and roadway condition data were collected from the roadway weather information systems at selected sites in Iowa and Minnesota, for comparison to the vehicles' onboard temperature sensors. Furthermore, the team received new technology, such as the mobile Frensor unit, for bench testing and later installation.

Commercial Vehicle Parking, 1999

The purpose of the study was to review Iowa's public policy issues related to the state provision of overnight commercial truck parking and to make recommendations regarding the same. It was decided to limit the research and data gathering to a study of national trends in public commercial truck parking at facilities along and adjacent to Iowa's interstate highways.

FY2015 Equipment and Vehicle Revolving Fund report

The Equipment and Vehicle Revolving Fund report covers all equipment and vehicle purchases through the highway materials and equipment revolving fund during FY 2015.

J2 effect and elliptic inclined periodic orbits in the collision three-body problem

The existence of a new class of inclined periodic orbits of the collision restricted three-body problem is shown. The symmetric periodic solutions found are perturbations of elliptic kepler orbits and they exist only for special values of the inclination and are related to the motion of a satellite around an oblate planet

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Estimated Traffic and Vehicle-Miles of Travel on Iowa's Proposed Interstate System 1956-1975

Data tables describing the length and vehicle-miles of travel on Iowa's 1975 proposed interstate system, broken down by interstate. No text is available.