946 resultados para Vector Autoregressions
Resumo:
The thrust of this report concerns spline theory and some of the background to spline theory and follows the development in (Wahba, 1991). We also review methods for determining hyper-parameters, such as the smoothing parameter, by Generalised Cross Validation. Splines have an advantage over Gaussian Process based procedures in that we can readily impose atmospherically sensible smoothness constraints and maintain computational efficiency. Vector splines enable us to penalise gradients of vorticity and divergence in wind fields. Two similar techniques are summarised and improvements based on robust error functions and restricted numbers of basis functions given. A final, brief discussion of the application of vector splines to the problem of scatterometer data assimilation highlights the problems of ambiguous solutions.
Resumo:
Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.
Resumo:
Using methods of Statistical Physics, we investigate the generalization performance of support vector machines (SVMs), which have been recently introduced as a general alternative to neural networks. For nonlinear classification rules, the generalization error saturates on a plateau, when the number of examples is too small to properly estimate the coefficients of the nonlinear part. When trained on simple rules, we find that SVMs overfit only weakly. The performance of SVMs is strongly enhanced, when the distribution of the inputs has a gap in feature space.
Resumo:
Obtaining wind vectors over the ocean is important for weather forecasting and ocean modelling. Several satellite systems used operationally by meteorological agencies utilise scatterometers to infer wind vectors over the oceans. In this paper we present the results of using novel neural network based techniques to estimate wind vectors from such data. The problem is partitioned into estimating wind speed and wind direction. Wind speed is modelled using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and a sum of squares error function. Wind direction is a periodic variable and a multi-valued function for a given set of inputs; a conventional MLP fails at this task, and so we model the full periodic probability density of direction conditioned on the satellite derived inputs using a Mixture Density Network (MDN) with periodic kernel functions. A committee of the resulting MDNs is shown to improve the results.
Structure, dynamics, and energetics of siRNA-cationic vector complexation:a molecular dynamics study
Resumo:
The design and synthesis of safe and efficient nonviral vectors for gene delivery has attracted significant attention in recent years. Previous experiments have revealed that the charge density of a polycation (the carrier) plays a crucial role in complexation and the release of the gene from the complex in the cytosol. In this work, we adopt an atomistic molecular dynamics simulation approach to study the complexation of short strand duplex RNA with six cationic carrier systems of varying charge and surface topology. The simulations reveal detailed molecular-level pictures of the structures and dynamics of the RNA-polycation complexes. Estimates for the binding free energy indicate that electrostatic contributions are dominant followed by van der Waals interactions. The binding free energy between the 8(+)polymers and the RNA is found to be larger than that of the 4(+)polymers, in general agreement with previously published data. Because reliable binding free energies provide an effective index of the ability of the polycationic carrier to bind the nucleic acid and also carry implications for the process of gene release within the cytosol, these novel simulations have the potential to provide us with a much better understanding of key mechanistic aspects of gene-polycation complexation and thereby advance the rational design of nonviral gene delivery systems.
Resumo:
The Q parameter scales differently with the noise power for the signal-noise and the noise-noise beating terms in scalar and vector models. Some procedures for including noise in the scalar model largely under-estimate the Q parameter. We propose a simple method for including noise within a scalar model which will allow both the noise-noise dominated limit and the signal-noise dominated limit to be treated consistently. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The Q parameter scales differently with the noise power for the signal-noise and the noise-noise beating terms in scalar and vector models. Some procedures for including noise in the scalar model largely under-estimate the Q parameter.
Resumo:
A novel, direction-sensitive bending sensor based on an asymmetric fiber Bragg grating (FBG) inscribed by an infrared femtosecond laser was demonstrated. The technique is based on tight transverse confinement of the femto-inscribed structures and can be directly applied in conventional, untreated singlemode fibers. The FBG structure was inscribed by an amplified, titanium sapphire laser system. The grating cross-section was elongated along the direction of the laser beam with the transverse dimensions of approximately 1 by 2 μm. It was suggested that the sensitivity of the device can be improved by inscribing smaller spatial features and by implementing more complex grating designs aimed at maximizing the effect of strain.
Resumo:
A direction-sensitive bend sensor in standard single-mode fiber is demonstrated for the first time based on an axially-offset fiber Bragg grating, directly written by an infrared femtosecond laser.
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We demonstrate experimentally new families of vector solitons with locked and precessing states of polarization for fundamental and multipulse soliton operations in a carbon nanotube mode-locked fiber laser with anomalous dispersion laser cavity.
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We introduce a general matrix formulation for multiuser channels and analyse the special cases of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output channels, channels with interference and relay arrays under LDPC coding using methods developed for the statistical mechanics of disordered systems. We use the replica method to provide results for the typical overlaps of the original and recovered messages and discuss their implications. The results obtained are consistent with belief propagation and density evolution results but also complement them giving additional insights into the information dynamics of these channels with unexpected effects in some cases.