China´s new labour contract law: no harm to employment?

In January 2008, China imposed a new labour contract law. This new law is the most significant reform to the law of employment relations in mainland China in more than a decade. The paper provides a theoretical framework on the inter-linkages between labour market regulation, option value and the choice and timing of employment. All in all, the paper demonstrates that the Labour Contract Law in it´s own right will have only small impacts upon employment in the fast-growing Chinese economy. On the contrary, induced increasing unit labour costs represent the real issue and may reduce employment.

Three essays on bankruptcy risk

Abstract Market prices of corporate bond spreads and of credit default swap (CDS) rates do not match each other. In this paper, we argue that the liquidity premium, the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) option and actual market segmentation explain the pricing differences. Using the European transaction data from Reuters and Bloomberg, we estimate the liquidity premium that is time- varying and firm-specific. We show that when time-dependent liquidity premiums are considered, corporate bond spreads and CDS rates behave in a much closer way than previous studies have shown. We find that high equity volatility drives pricing differences that can be explained by the CTD option.

Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov switching model with constant transition probabilities. The magnitude of the link between cyclical uncertainty and investment is quantified using simulations of the model. The chief implication of the model is that recessions and financial turmoil are important catalysts for waiting. In other words, our model shows that macroeconomic risk acts as an important deterrent to investments.

Optimal Martingales and American Option Pricing

Pricing American options is an interesting research topic since there is no analytical solution to value these derivatives. Different numerical methods have been proposed in the literature with some, if not all, either limited to a specific payoff or not applicable to multidimensional cases. Applications of Monte Carlo methods to price American options is a relatively new area that started with Longstaff and Schwartz (2001). Since then, few variations of that methodology have been proposed. The general conclusion is that Monte Carlo estimators tend to underestimate the true option price. The present paper follows Glasserman and Yu (2004b) and proposes a novel Monte Carlo approach, based on designing "optimal martingales" to determine stopping times. We show that our martingale approach can also be used to compute the dual as described in Rogers (2002).

Estudi d'un sistema integrat en una empresa tecnològica

El projecte que es presenta és l’estudi de diferents sistemes integrats (ERP) per a la seva implementació en una empresa de desenvolupament de software. Els sistemes integrats són sistemes de gestió de la informació que integren i automatitzen moltes de les pràctiques del negoci d’una empresa per a facilitar-ne l’intercanvi d’informació entre les diferents parts. El projecte ha estat desenvolupat seguint la metodologia METRICA per a la implementació de software, i a partir d’aquesta metodologia s’han estudiat les característiques de l’empresa i posteriorment s’ha fet un anàlisi dels diferents sistemes integrats que podrien ser bones opcions per a implementar-los en l’empresa estudiada. Finalment, s’ha escollit el sistema integrat que més requisits acomplia per a ser instal·lat en l’empresa.

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be “inefficient” in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.

Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

L'Afrique et le marché mondial des footballeurs

Grâce à la Coupe du Monde de la FIFA 2010, tous les projecteurs sont braqués sur le football africain. L'occasion d'entamer d'indispensables réformes, afin que les jeunes talents aient d'autres options que l'exil

Actualités diagnostiques et thérapeutiques dans le domaine de l'encéphalopathie hépatique [Hepatic encephalopathy: recent developments].

Hepatic encephalopathy is a neurological syndrome occurring in patients with liver failure or in those with a large porto-systemic shunt. In cirrhotic patients, the current classification comprises covert and overt encephalopathy. Diagnosis of covert encephalopathy requires sensitive tests. Lactulose and rifaximin are the two leading therapeutic options. Rifaximin is efficacious for maintaining remission from hepatic encephalopathy. Liver transplantation should be discussed in cirrhotic patients with encephalopathy.