Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

Summertime total ozone variations over middle and polar latitudes

The statistical relationship between springtime and summertime ozone over middle and polar latitudes is analyzed using zonally averaged total ozone data. Shortterm variations in springtime midlatitude ozone demonstrate only a modest correlation with springtime polar ozone variations. However by early summer, ozone variations throughout the extratropics are highly correlated. Analysis of correlation functions indicates that springtime midlatitude ozone, not polar ozone, is the best predictor for summertime polar ozone. Long-term total ozone trends at middle and high latitudes are also different for spring and nearly identical for summer. About 39% of the observed southern midlatitude ozone decline in December can be attributed to the polar ozone depletion up to November. In the Northern Hemisphere, the corresponding contribution is about 15%, but the error bars are too large to make an accurate estimate.

Persistence and photochemical decay of springtime total ozone anomalies in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The persistence and decay of springtime total ozone anomalies over the entire extratropics (midlatitudes plus polar regions) is analysed using results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive chemistry-climate model. As in the observations, interannual anomalies established through winter and spring persist with very high correlation coefficients (above 0.8) through summer until early autumn, while decaying in amplitude as a result of photochemical relaxation in the quiescent summertime stratosphere. The persistence and decay of the ozone anomalies in CMAM agrees extremely well with observations, even in the southern hemisphere when the model is run without heterogeneous chemistry (in which case there is no ozone hole and the seasonal cycle of ozone is quite different from observations). However in a version of CMAM with strong vertical diffusion, the northern hemisphere anomalies decay far too rapidly compared to observations. This shows that ozone anomaly persistence and decay does not depend on how the springtime anomalies are created or on their magnitude, but reflects the transport and photochemical decay in the model. The seasonality of the long-term trends over the entire extratropics is found to be explained by the persistence of the interannual anomalies, as in the observations, demonstrating that summertime ozone trends reflect winter/spring trends rather than any change in summertime ozone chemistry. However this mechanism fails in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes because of the relatively large impact, compared to observations, of the CMAM polar anomalies. As in the southern hemisphere, the influence of polar ozone loss in CMAM increases the midlatitude summertime loss, leading to a relatively weak seasonal dependence of ozone loss in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the observations.

Seasonal persistence of midlatitude total ozone anomalies

Temporal autocorrelations of monthly mean total ozone anomalies over the 35–60°S and 35–60°N latitude bands reveal that anomalies established in the wintertime midlatitude ozone buildup persist (with photochemical decay) until the end of the following autumn, and then are rapidly erased once the next winter's buildup begins. The photochemical decay rate is found to be identical between the two hemispheres. High predictability of ozone through late summer exists based on the late-spring values. In the northern hemisphere, extending the 1979–2001 springtime ozone trend to other months through regression based on the seasonal persistence of anomalies captures the seasonality of the ozone trends remarkably well. In the southern hemisphere, the springtime trend only accounts for part of the summertime trends. There is a strong correlation between the ozone anomalies in northern hemisphere spring and those in the subsequent southern hemisphere spring, but not the converse.

Geographical variation in total and inorganic arsenic content of polished (white) rice

An extensive data set of total arsenic analysis for 901 polished (white) grain samples, originating from 10 countries from 4 continents, was compiled. The samples represented the baseline (i.e., not specifically collected from arsenic contaminated areas), and all were for market sale in major conurbations. Median total arsenic contents of rice varied 7-fold, with Egypt (0.04 mg/kg) and India (0.07 mg/kg) having the lowest arsenic content while the U.S. (0.25 mg/kg) and France (0.28 mg/kg) had the highest content. Global distribution of total arsenic in rice was modeled by weighting each country’s arsenic distribution by that country’s contribution to global production. A subset of 63 samples from Bangladesh, China, India, Italy, and the U.S. was analyzed for arsenic species. The relationship between inorganic arsenic content versus total arsenic content significantly differed among countries, with Bangladesh and India having the steepest slope in linear regression, and the U.S. having the shallowest slope. Using country-specific rice consumption data, daily intake of inorganic arsenic was estimated and the associated internal cancer risk was calculated using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) cancer slope. Median excess internal cancer risks posed by inorganic arsenic ranged 30-fold for the 5 countries examined, being 0.7 per 10,000 for Italians to 22 per 10,000 for Bangladeshis, when a 60 kg person was considered.

Assessment of the dietary intake of total flavan-3-ols, monomeric flavan-3-ols, proanthocyanidins and theaflavins in the European Union

Dietary interventions with flavan-3-ols have shown beneficial effects on vascular function. The translation of these findings into the context of the health of the general public requires detailed information on habitual dietary intake. However, only limited data are currently available for European populations. Therefore, in the present study, we assessed the habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins (PA) and theaflavins in the European Union (EU) and determined their main food sources using the EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) Comprehensive European Food Consumption Database. Data for adults aged 18–64 years were available from fourteen European countries, and intake was determined using the FLAVIOLA Flavanol Food Composition Database, developed for the present study and based on the latest US Department of Agriculture and Phenol-Explorer databases. The mean habitual intake of flavan-3-ol monomers, theaflavins and PA ranged from 181 mg/d (Czech Republic) to 793 mg/d (Ireland). The highest intakes of flavan-3-ol monomers and theaflavins were observed in Ireland (191/505 mg/d) and the lowest intakes in Spain (24/9 mg/d). In contrast, the daily intake of PA was highest in Spain (175 mg/d) and lowest in The Netherlands (96 mg/d). Main sources were tea (62 %), pome fruits (11 %), berries (3 %) and cocoa products (3 %). Tea was the major single contributor to monomer intake (75 %), followed by pome fruits (6 %). Pome fruits were also the main source of PA (28 %). The present study provides important data on the population-based intake of flavanols in the EU and demonstrates that dietary intake amounts for flavan-3-ol monomers, PA and theaflavins vary significantly across European countries. The average habitual intake of flavan-3-ols is considerably below the amounts used in most dietary intervention studies.

Contributions to twentieth century total column ozone change from halocarbons, tropospheric ozone precursors, and climate change

We investigate ozone changes from preindustrial times to the present using a chemistry-climate model. The influence of changes in physical climate, ozone-depleting substances, N2O, and tropospheric ozone precursors is estimated using equilibrium simulations with these different factors set at either preindustrial or present-day values. When these effects are combined, the entire decrease in total column ozone from preindustrial to present day is very small (–1.8 DU) in the global annual average, though with significant decreases in total column ozone over large parts of the Southern Hemisphere during austral spring and widespread increases in column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. A significant contribution to the total ozone column change is the increase in lower stratospheric ozone associated with the increase in ozone precursors (5.9 DU). Also noteworthy is the near cancellation of the global average climate change effect on ozone (3.5 DU) by the increase in N2O (–3.9 DU).

The effect of adding stinging nettle (Urtica dioica) haylage to a total mixed ration on performance and rumen function of lactating dairy cows

In vitro studies found that inclusion of dried stinging nettle (Urtica dioica) at 100 mg/g dry matter (DM) increased the pH of a rumen fluid inoculated fermentation buffer by 30% and the effect was persistent for 7 days. Our objective was to evaluate the effects of adding stinging nettle haylage to a total mixed ration on feed intake, eating and rumination activity, rumen pH, milk yield, and milk composition of lactating dairy cows. Six lactating Holstein-Friesian cows were used in a replicated 3 × 3 Latin Square design experiment with 3 treatments and 3 week periods. Treatments were a control (C) high-starch (311 g/kg DM) total mixed ration diet and two treatment diets containing 50 (N5) and 100 (N10) g nettle haylage (DM/kg) as a replacement for ryegrass silage (Lolium perenne). There was an increase (linear, P < 0.010) in the proportion of large particles and a reduction in medium (linear, P = 0.045) and fine particles (linear, P = 0.026) in the diet offered with increasing nettle inclusion. A numerical decrease (linear, P = 0.106) in DM intake (DMI) was observed as nettle inclusion in the diet increased. Milk yield averaged 20.3 kg/day and was not affected by diet. There was a decrease (quadratic, P = 0.01) in the time animals spent ruminating as nettle inclusion in the diet increased, in spite of an increase in the number of boli produced daily for the N5 diet (quadratic, P = 0.031). Animals fed the N10 diet spent less time with a rumen pH below 5.5 (P < 0.05) than cows fed the N5 diet. Averaged over an 8.5 h sampling period, there were no changes in the concentration or proportions of acetate or propionate in the rumen, but feeding nettle haylage reduced the concentrations of n-butyrate (quadratic, P < 0.001), i-butyrate (linear, P < 0.009) and n-caproate (linear, P < 0.003). Milk and fat and protein corrected milk yield were not affected when nettles replaced ryegrass silage in the diet of lactating dairy cows, despite a numerical reduction in feed intake. Rumination activity was reduced by the addition of nettle haylage to the diet, which may reflect differences in fibre structure between the nettle haylage and ryegrass silage fed. Changes observed in rumen pH suggest potential benefits of feeding nettle haylage for reducing rumen acidosis. However, the extent to which these effects were due to the fermentability and structure of the nettle haylage compared to the ryegrass silage fed, or a bioactive component of the nettles, is not certain

Reconciliation of halogen-induced ozone loss with the total-column ozone record

The observed depletion of the ozone layer from the 1980s onwards is attributed to halogen source gases emitted by human activities. However, the precision of this attribution is complicated by year-to-year variations in meteorology, that is, dynamical variability, and by changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations. As such, key aspects of the total-column ozone record, which combines changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, remain unexplained, such as the apparent absence of a decline in total-column ozone levels before 1980, and of any long-term decline in total-column ozone levels in the tropics. Here we use a chemistry–climate model to estimate changes in halogen-induced ozone loss between 1960 and 2010; the model is constrained by observed meteorology to remove the effects of dynamical variability, and driven by emissions of tropospheric ozone precursors to separate out changes in tropospheric ozone. We show that halogen-induced ozone loss closely followed stratospheric halogen loading over the studied period. Pronounced enhancements in ozone loss were apparent in both hemispheres following the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and, in particular, Mount Pinatubo, which significantly enhanced stratospheric aerosol loads. We further show that approximately 40% of the long-term non-volcanic ozone loss occurred before 1980, and that long-term ozone loss also occurred in the tropical stratosphere. Finally, we show that halogen-induced ozone loss has declined by over 10% since stratospheric halogen loading peaked in the late 1990s, indicating that the recovery of the ozone layer is well underway.

An evaluation of the correlation between open solar flux and total solar irradiance

The correlation between the coronal source flux F_{S} and the total solar irradiance I_{TS} is re-evaluated in the light of an additional 5 years' data from the rising phase of solar cycle 23 and also by using cosmic ray fluxes detected at Earth. Tests on monthly averages show that the correlation with F_{S} deduced from the interplanetary magnetic field (correlation coefficient, r = 0.62) is highly significant (99.999%), but that there is insufficient data for the higher correlation with annual means (r = 0.80) to be considered significant. Anti-correlations between I_{TS} and cosmic ray fluxes are found in monthly data for all stations and geomagnetic rigidity cut-offs (r ranging from −0.63 to −0.74) and these have significance levels between 85% and 98%. In all cases, the t is poorest for the earliest data (i.e., prior to 1982). Excluding these data improves the anticorrelation with cosmic rays to r = −0:93 for one-year running means. Both the interplanetary magnetic field data and the cosmic ray fluxes indicate that the total solar irradiance lags behind the open solar flux with a delay that is estimated to have an optimum value of 2.8 months (and is within the uncertainty range 0.8-8.0 months at the 90% level).

Long term changes in EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere as measured by the response of the Earth’s ionosphere during total solar eclipses from 1932 to 1999

Measurements of the ionospheric E region during total solar eclipses in the period 1932-1999 have been used to investigate the fraction of Extreme Ultra Violet and soft X-ray radiation, phi, that is emitted from the limb corona and chromosphere. The relative apparent sizes of the Moon and the Sun are different for each eclipse, and techniques are presented which correct the measurements and, therefore, allow direct comparisons between different eclipses. The results show that the fraction of ionising radiation emitted by the limb corona has a clear solar cycle variation and that the underlying trend shows this fraction has been increasing since 1932. Data from the SOHO spacecraft are used to study the effects of short-term variability and it is shown that the observed long-term rise in phi has a negligible probability of being a chance occurrence.

Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1-10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50 degrees 06'N, 5 degrees 18'W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for II August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25 +/- 2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sormjole (63 degrees 68'N, 20 degrees 20'E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 +/- 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.

Long-term drift of the coronal source magnetic flux and the total solar irradiance

We test the method of Lockwood et al. [1999] for deriving the coronal source flux from the geomagnetic aa index and show it to be accurate to within 12% for annual means and 4.5% for averages over a sunspot cycle. Using data from four solar constant monitors during 1981-1995, we find a linear relationship between this magnetic flux and the total solar irradiance. From this correlation, we show that the 131% rise in the mean coronal source field over the interval 1901-1995 corresponds to a rise in the average total solar irradiance of {\Delta}I = 1.65 +/- 0.23 Wm^{-2}.

A simple model of the effects of the mid-latitude total ion trough in the bottomsideFlayer on HF radiowave propagation

Observations of the amplitudes and Doppler shifts of received HF radio waves are compared with model predictions made using a two-dimensional ray-tracing program. The signals are propagated over a sub-auroral path, which is shown to lie along the latitudes of the mid-latitude trough at times of low geomagnetic activity. Generalizing the predictions to include a simple model of the trough in the density and height of the F2 peak enables the explanation of the anomalous observed diurnal variations. The behavior of received amplitude, Doppler shift, and signal-to-noise ratio as a function of the Kp index value, the time of day, and the season (in 17 months of continuous recording) is found to agree closely with that predicted using the statistical position of the trough as deduced from 8 years of Alouette satellite soundings. The variation in the times of the observation of large signal amplitudes with the Kp value and the complete absence of such amplitudes when it exceeds 2.75 are two features that implicate the trough in these effects.