Bayesian designs with frequentist and Bayesian error rate considerations

So far, most Phase II trials have been designed and analysed under a frequentist framework. Under this framework, a trial is designed so that the overall Type I and Type II errors of the trial are controlled at some desired levels. Recently, a number of articles have advocated the use of Bavesian designs in practice. Under a Bayesian framework, a trial is designed so that the trial stops when the posterior probability of treatment is within certain prespecified thresholds. In this article, we argue that trials under a Bayesian framework can also be designed to control frequentist error rates. We introduce a Bayesian version of Simon's well-known two-stage design to achieve this goal. We also consider two other errors, which are called Bayesian errors in this article because of their similarities to posterior probabilities. We show that our method can also control these Bayesian-type errors. We compare our method with other recent Bayesian designs in a numerical study and discuss implications of different designs on error rates. An example of a clinical trial for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma is used to illustrate differences of the different designs.

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Spectral and thermal sensing for nitrogen and water status in rainfed and irrigated wheat environments

Variable-rate technologies and site-specific crop nutrient management require real-time spatial information about the potential for response to in-season crop management interventions. Thermal and spectral properties of canopies can provide relevant information for non-destructive measurement of crop water and nitrogen stresses. In previous studies, foliage temperature was successfully estimated from canopy-scale (mixed foliage and soil) temperatures and the multispectral Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index (CCCI) was effective in measuring canopy-scale N status in rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) systems in Horsham, Victoria, Australia. In the present study, results showed that under irrigated wheat systems in Maricopa, Arizona, USA, the theoretical derivation of foliage temperature unmixing produced relationships similar to those in Horsham. Derivation of the CCCI led to an r2 relationship with chlorophyll a of 0.53 after Zadoks stage 43. This was later than the relationship (r2 = 0.68) developed for Horsham after Zadoks stage 33 but early enough to be used for potential mid-season N fertilizer recommendations. Additionally, ground-based hyperspectral data estimated plant N (g kg)1) in Horsham with an r2 = 0.86 but was confounded by water supply and N interactions. By combining canopy thermal and spectral properties, varying water and N status can potentially be identified eventually permitting targeted N applications to those parts of a field where N can be used most efficiently by the crop.

Distributions of lesser mealworm (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Distributions of lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in southeastern Queensland, Australia, were studied over two flocks. Larvae were the predominant stage recorded. Significantly low densities occurred in open locations and under drinker cups where chickens had complete access, whereas high densities were found under feed pans and along house edges where chicken access was restricted. For each flock, lesser mealworm numbers increased at all locations over the first 14 d, especially under feed pans and along house edges, peaking at 26 d and then declining over the final 28 d. A life stage profile per flock was devised that consisted of the following: beetles emerge from the earth floor at the beginning of each flock, and females lay eggs, producing larvae that peak in numbers at 3 wk; after a further 3 to 4 wk, larvae leave litter to pupate in the earth floor, and beetles then emerge by the end of the flock time. Removing old litter from the brooder section at the end of a flock did not greatly reduce mealworm numbers over the subsequent flock, but it seemed to prevent numbers increasing, while an increase in numbers in the grow-out section was recorded after reusing litter. Areas under feed pans and along house edges accounted for 5% of the total house area, but approximately half the estimated total number of lesser mealworms in the broiler house occurred in these locations. The results of this study will be used to determine optimal deployment of site-specific treatments for lesser mealworm control.

Conformations of the amino aterminal tetrapeptide of emerimicins and antiamoebins in solution and in the solid state

The conformations of Boc-l-Phe-(AiB)3-OH (1) and Boc-l-Phe-(Aib)3-OMe (2) which correspond to the amino terminal sequence of the emerimicins and antiamoebins have been studied in solution using 270 MHz 1H n.m.r. In dimethyl sulphoxide solution both peptides show the presence of two strongly solvent shielded Aib NH groups, consistent with a consecutive β-turn conformation, involving the Aib(3) and Aib(4) NH groups in intramolecular 4 → I hydrogen bonds. This folded conformation is maintained for 2 in chloroform solution. Nuclear Overhauser effect studies provide evidence for a Type II Phe-Aib β-turn. An X-ray diffraction study of Boc-(d,l)-Phe-(Aib)3-OH establishes a single type III(III′) β-turn conformation with Aib(2)-Aib(3) as the corner residues. A single intramolecular 4 → I hydrogen bond between Phe(I) CO and Aib(4) NH groups is observed in the crystal. The solution conformation may incorporate a consecutive type II-III′ structure for the Phe(1)-Aib(2)-Aib(3) segment, with the initial type II β-turn being destabilized by intermolecular interactions in the solid state.

The effects of +Gz force on the bone mineral density of fighter pilots

HYPOTHESIS Bone is a metabolically active tissue which responds to high strain loading. The purpose of this study was to examine the bone response to high +Gz force loading generated during high performance flying. METHODS The bone response to +Gz force loading was monitored in 10 high performance RAAF pilots and 10 gender-, age-, height-, weight-matched control subjects. The pilots were stationed at the RAAF base at Pearce, Western Australia, all completing the 1-yr flight training course. The pilots flew the Pilatus PC-9 aircraft, routinely sustaining between 2.0 and 6.0 +Gz. Bone mineral density (BMD) and bone mineral content (BMC) were measured at baseline and 12 mo, using the Hologic QDR 2000+ bone densitometer. RESULTS After controlling for change in total body weight and fat mass, the pilots experienced a significant increase in BMD and BMC for thoracic spine, pelvis, and total body, in the magnitude of 11.0%, 4.9%, and 3.7%, respectively. However, no significant changes in bone mineral were observed in the pilots lumbar spine, arms or legs. The control group experienced a significant decrease in pelvic BMC, with no other bone mineral changes observed at any site. CONCLUSIONS These findings suggest that site specific BMD is increased in response to high +Gz forces generated during high performance flying in a PC-9.

Stereochemical studies on cyclic peptides. XIII. Energy minimization studies on cyclic hexapeptides having hydrogen bonds

The basic cyclic hexapeptide conformations which accommodate hydrogen bonded β and γ turns in the backbone have been worked out using stereochemical criteria and energy minimization procedures. It was found that cyclic hexapeptides can be made up of all possible combinations of 4 ± 1 hydrogen bonded types I, I', II and II' β turns, giving rise to symmetric conformations having twofold and inversion symmetries as well as nonsymmetric structures. Conformations having exclusive features of 3 ± 1 hydrogen bonded γ turns were found to be possible in threefold and S6 symmetric cyclic hexapeptides. The results show that the cyclic hexapeptides formed by the linking of two β turn tripeptide fragments differ mainly in (a) the hydrogen bonding scheme present in the β turn tripeptides and (b) the conformation at the α-carbon atoms where the two tripeptide fragments link. The different hydrogen bonding schemes found in the component β turns are: 1) a β turn with only a 4 ± 1 hydrogen bond, 2) a type I or I' β turn with 4 ± 1 and 3 ± 1 hydrogen bonds occurring in a bifurcated form and 3) a type II or II' β turn having both the 4 ± 1 and the 3 ± 1 hydrogen bonds with the same acceptor oxygen atom. The conformation at the linking α-carbon atoms was found to lie either in the extended region or in the 3 ± 1 hydrogen bonded γ turn or inverse γ turn regions. Further, the threefold and the S6 symmetric conformations have three γ turns interleaved by three extended regions or three inverse γ turns, respectively. The feasibility of accommodating alanyl residues of both isomeric forms in the CHP minima has been explored. Finally, the available experimental data are reviewed in the light of the present results.

Establishment and management of salt-tolerant amenity grasses to reduce urban salinity effect

This project built upon the successful outcomes of a previous project (TU02005) by adding to the database of salt tolerance among warm season turfgrass cultivars, through further hydroponic screening trials. Hydroponic screening trials focussed on new cultivars or cultivars that were not possible to cover in the time available under TU02005, including: 11 new cultivars of Paspalum vaginatum; 13 cultivars of Cynodon dactylon; six cultivars of Stenotaphrum secundatum; one accession of Cynodon transvaalensis; 12 Cynodon dactylon x transvaalensis hybrids; two cultivars of Sporobolus virginicus; five cultivars of Zoysia japonica; one cultivar of Z. macrantha, one common form of Z. tenuifolia and one Z. japonica x tenuifolia hybrid. The relative salinity tolerance of different turfgrasses is quantified in terms of their growth response to increasing levels of salinity, often defined by the salt level that equates to a 50% reduction in shoot yield, or alternatively the threshold salinity. The most salt tolerant species in these trials were Sporobolus virginicus and Paspalum vaginatum, consistent with the findings from TU02005 (Loch, Poulter et al. 2006). Cynodon dactylon showed the largest range in threshold values with some cultivars highly sensitive to salt, while others were tolerant to levels approaching that of the more halophytic grasses. Coupled with the observational and anecdotal evidence of high drought tolerance, this species and other intermediately tolerant species provide options for site specific situations in which soil salinity is coupled with additional challenges such as shade and high traffic conditions. By recognising the fact that a salt tolerant grass is not the complete solution to salinity problems, this project has been able to further investigate sustainable long-term establishment and management practices that maximise the ability of the selected grass to survive and grow under a particular set of salinity and usage parameters. Salt-tolerant turf grasses with potential for special use situations were trialled under field conditions at three sites within the Gold Coast City Council, while three sites, established under TU02005 within the Redland City Council boundaries were monitored for continued grass survival. Several randomised block experiments within Gold Coast City were established to compare the health and longevity of seashore paspalum (Paspalum vaginatum), Manila grass (Zoysia matrella), as well as the more tolerant cultivars of other species like buffalo grass (Stenotaphrum secundatum) and green couch (Cynodon dactylon). Whilst scientific results were difficult to achieve in the field situation, where conditions cannot be controlled, these trials provided valuable observational evidence of the likely survival of these species. Alternatives to laying full sod such as sprigging were investigated, and were found to be more appropriate for areas of low traffic as the establishment time is greater. Trials under controlled and protected conditions successfully achieved a full cover of Paspalum vaginatum from sprigs in a 10 week time frame. Salt affected sites are often associated with poor soil structure. Part of the research investigated techniques for the alleviation of soil compaction frequently found on saline sites. Various methods of soil de-compaction were investigated on highly compacted heavy clay soil in Redlands City. It was found that the heavy duplex soil of marine clay sediments required the most aggressive of treatments in order to achieve limited short-term effects. Interestingly, a well constructed sports field showed a far greater and longer term response to de-compaction operations, highlighting the importance of appropriate construction in the successful establishment and management of turfgrasses on salt affected sites. Fertiliser trials in this project determined plant demand for nitrogen (N) to species level. This work produced data that can be used as a guide when fertilising, in order to produce optimal growth and quality in the major turf grass species used in public parkland. An experiment commenced during TU02005 and monitored further in this project, investigated six representative warm-season turfgrasses to determine the optimum maintenance requirements for fertiliser N in south-east Queensland. In doing so, we recognised that optimum level is also related to use and intensity of use, with high profile well-used parks requiring higher maintenance N than low profile parks where maintaining botanical composition at a lower level of turf quality might be acceptable. Kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) seemed to require the greatest N input (300-400 kg N/ha/year), followed by the green couch (Cynodon dactylon) cultivars ‘Wintergreen’ and ‘FLoraTeX’ requiring approximately 300 kg N/ha/year for optimal condition and growth. ‘Sir Walter’ (Stenotaphrum secundatum) and ‘Sea Isle 1’ (Paspalum vaginatum) had a moderate requirement of approximately 200 kg/ha/year. ‘Aussiblue’ (Digitaria didactyla)maintained optimal growth and quality at 100-200 kg N/ha/year. A set of guidelines has been prepared to provide various options from the construction and establishment of new grounds, through to the remediation of existing parklands by supporting the growth of endemic grasses. They describe a best management process through which salt affected sites should be assessed, remediated and managed. These guidelines, or Best Management Practices, will be readily available to councils. Previously, some high salinity sites have been turfed several times over a number of years (and Council budgets) for a 100% failure record. By eliminating this budgetary waste through targeted workable solutions, local authorities will be more amenable to investing appropriate amounts into these areas. In some cases, this will lead to cost savings as well as resulting in better quality turf. In all cases, however, improved turf quality will be of benefit to ratepayers, directly through increased local use of open space in parks and sportsfields and indirectly by attracting tourists and other visitors to the region bringing associated economic benefits. At the same time, environmental degradation and erosion of soil in bare areas will be greatly reduced.